Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[godnodog]

1 hour ago, Cookie Monster said:

Something I have noticed before a major war is the rhetoric starts to mention the terms `the final war` or `the war to end all wars`.

That hasn`t happened yet so hopefully no WW3.

But I have noticed Putin is a tiny man, Napoleon and Hitler were little people too, so mmm.... who knows?

Napoleon wasn't a tiny man, thats a myth that just won't die.

[+Noteverythingisaconspiracy]

20 minutes ago, godnodog said:

Napoleon wasn't a tiny man, thats a myth that just won't die.

Hitler was 175 cm, which would have been taller than average for the time. It's not like these things are hard to find out these days, but I guess It's easier to just write stuff and hope people don't know that it is wrong.

[Knob Oddy]

3 hours ago, el midgetron said:

 

On these grounds I object to calling Russians “orcs” and cockroaches. If UM has Russian members, I think it’s disrespectful to them.
 

 

I've changed my tune a bit on this one. Orcs are pretty cool creatures.

In solidarity with "Orcs", I have changed my profile picture to one taken this year of a statue of an Orc leader at a movie studio. Just had to crop myself out.

Quite a badass nickname these guys are giving the average Russian soldiers, most of whom have a keg rather than a 6 pack like the pictured orc.

 

But yes, I also agree that some Russians will be very offended by the comparison.

Edited July 4, 2022 by Knob Oddy

[Silver]

11 hours ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

I think Shrouds account has been hacked cause I cant believe he said that. Those to have had so many "debates" on this site. Plus its cookie. 

I had a moment of clarity when I read CM's post about toy tanks and someone using a spoon to create craters in the lawn or some other such nonsense. When you are passionate about something, like I was about Brexit and Ukraine, it is easy to fall into the trap of replying to him. He used to say similar nonsensical things in The Road to Brexit, and I would point out when he was in error (all the time) and reference my posts. I realise now he just doesn't care. He used to call himself the Great Retardo, so he is upfront about his nonsense. I think he is beyond trolling, el Midgetron trolls for a response, but I think CM doesn't care about any of the topics he posts on and how we respond.At least he is funny, sometimes. 

I just threw in a mention of Grey Area because he is passionate about being pro-Brexit and has me on ignore anyway.

[Silver]

7 hours ago, el midgetron said:

Everyone has the opportunity of putting their boots on the ground in Ukraine

Apply here >>>  https://fightforua.org

"Anyone who wants to join the defense of Ukraine, Europe and the world can come and fight side by side with the Ukrainians against the Russian war criminals," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy implored in a Feb. 27 statement. Zelenskyy went on to explain that a 2016 Ukrainian law gave foreigners the right to enlist in the nation's Territorial Defense Forces. "There is no greater contribution which you can make for the sake of peace," he said.

https://science.howstuffworks.com/foreign-fighters-ukraine-news.htm

 

I suppose I should have specified NATO.Don't you ever wish you could stop trolling and post something honest? Probably not.

[Grey Area]

18 minutes ago, The Silver Shroud said:

I just threw in a mention of Grey Area because he is passionate about being pro-Brexit and has me on ignore anyway.

You threw that in because I have posted about Brexit and have you on ignore?

Really?  So you thought I wouldn’t see your comment and threw in an insult for the kicks?

For the record I ignore you, but don’t have you on ignore.

But that, sir, is the behaviour of a first rate a**hole and a coward to boot.  Not only did it have nothing to do with this thread, it is patently untrue.

[Silver]

Ukraine has withdrawn, but it is tactical and they have worn down the Russians. New weapons will turn the tide. What would really turn the tide would be the Russians getting out of Ukraine:

 

[el midgetron]

Ukraine Puts Its Immediate Funding Needs at Up to $65 Billion

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-04/ukraine-estimates-immediate-funding-needs-of-up-to-65-billion?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google#xj4y7vzkg

[Occult1]

Putin urges generals to carry on into Donetsk after fall of Luhansk

''Vladimir Putin has ordered his top generals to carry on their advance towards western parts of Ukraine’s Donetsk province after the Russian army captured the country’s far eastern Luhansk region at the weekend. Russia’s president was speaking at the Kremlin on Monday as Ukrainian forces retreated from Lysychansk, the last city in the Luhansk region that was under Kyiv’s control. A week earlier, Ukrainian forces had pulled out of Severodonetsk, a nearby city across the Siversky Donets river following months of fierce battles.''

https://www.ft.com/content/97b5befe-be56-4377-a359-4a72ba8ed33a

 

Looks like Russia is going to press the offensive for the entire Donbass.

Edited July 4, 2022 by Occult1

[el midgetron]

1 hour ago, The Silver Shroud said:

I suppose I should have specified NATO.Don't you ever wish you could stop trolling and post something honest? Probably not.

I don’t see the problem. You wanted boots on the ground? 

[Occult1]

41 minutes ago, The Silver Shroud said:

New weapons will turn the tide.

 

Unrealistic.

It takes weeks to train Ukrainian servicemen to use those heavy, more advanced weapons. By the time they are deployed on the battlefield - ready to use - Russia has already advanced. It's a battle against time, that Western nations are unfortunately losing. Russia has better logistics by proximity and more efficient supply lines. We are also running out of competent Ukrainian officers to train in a very short amount of time, which is becoming a serious problem.

Russia is winning the Donbass by attrition and there is not much else we can do about it.

Edited July 4, 2022 by Occult1

[el midgetron]

Russia Advances Behind Brutal Barrage, but Will Its Strategy Keep Working?

Russia’s capture of the cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, a significant victory for Moscow’s campaign to conquer eastern Ukraine, demonstrates the success of the Russian military’s grinding strategy based on superior firepower and incremental advances.

It also raises serious questions about how long either side can keep going like this, particularly the battered and vastly outgunned Ukrainian forces, forced to rely on raw recruits and suffering heavy casualties, along with the mental strain of combat, retreat and constant Russian shelling.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/04/world/europe/russia-ukraine-donbas-strategy.html

[el midgetron]

35 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Unrealistic.

It takes weeks to train Ukrainian servicemen to use those heavy, more advanced weapons. By the time they are deployed on the battlefield - ready to use - Russia has already advanced. It's a battle against time, that Western nations are unfortunately losing. Russia has better logistics by proximity and more efficient supply lines. We are also running out of competent Ukrainian officers to train in a very short amount of time, which is becoming a serious problem.

Russia is winning the Donbass by attrition and there is not much else we can do about it.

That’s my understanding also, it takes weeks to train soldiers on the more advanced weaponry Ukraine is getting. 
 

Earlier I posted an article that quoted a Ukrainian intelligence official saying Ukraine would start making victories in August. I suspect that is the time frame before any of these new weapons are ready to be deployed. 

https://news.yahoo.com/war-end-ukraine-regains-1991-111600279.html

He also predicted that by the end of the year Ukraine would see active hostilities significantly reduced. It’s hard to believe these new weapons could make such an impact considering how out gunned Ukraine currently is, 

[DarkHunter]

Hearing reports that the Ukranian military has acquired a Russian hard drive that has 100 GB of data on it.  Apparently the data was about an anti-air unit normally deployed/stationed around Moscow.  I'm sure America/NATO will be very interested in this data and that Ukraine will be willing to let them view it.

[Trelane]

Looking at the long game, does anyone really think that Russia will stop after they finally gain control over their initial stated goals? I personally don't. Either way they've shown their hand and are now struggling to scrape out their meager gains. Gains, I may add that were initially thought by Russian strategists to be easy wins. 10's of thousands of dead soldiers, hundreds of millions of dollars of equipment lost and/or expended. For what really? In the end they will lose everything they fought to gain, and likely more. As I've stated before, a catastrophic if not historic strategic failure on Russia's part. 

[DarkHunter]

The Russian ministry of finance has said that to balance the budget it is going to cut 1.6 trillion rubles (approximately $29 billion dollars) from government expenses.  Most of the cuts are going to transportation and research.

But sanctions are apparently not working and the Russian economy is stronger than ever according to some here.

To put it in perspective in 2020 the Russian government was spending around $300 billion a year so this cut is close to 10% of the Russian government's spending.

Edited July 5, 2022 by DarkHunter

[Occult1]

34 minutes ago, Trelane said:

Either way they've shown their hand and are now struggling to scrape out their meager gains.

I wish I could agree with you.

But once Russia captures all the Donbass, they would control near 25% of Ukraine. It's a significant amount of land. Industrial, agricultural land and Black Sea ports that is responsible for roughly  80% of Ukraine's gross national product as pointed out by Col Douglas MacGregor in an interview. When you look at an updated map, you can also see that they are creating what looks like a buffer zone between the Russian borders and the rest of Ukraine:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

Edited July 5, 2022 by Occult1

[DarkHunter]

5 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

But once Russia captures all the Donbass, they would control near 25% of Ukraine. It's a significant amount of land. Industrial, agricultural land and Black Sea ports that is responsible for roughly  80% of Ukraine's gross national product as pointed out by Col Douglas MacGregor in an interview. When you look at an updated map, you can also see that they are creating what looks like a buffer zone between the Russian borders and the rest of Ukraine:

Once again it's interesting you keep citing that guy talking about GNP, of which almost no one uses as GDP is better in almost all situations for determining economic strength.  For GDP the Donbas region isnt response for 80% of Ukraine's GDP.  The Donbas region accounts for approximately 8% of Ukraine's GDP

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ukrainian_subdivisions_by_GDP_per_capita

Not the most recent economic data but it's good enough.  

For those that dont know GDP looks at essentially the total value of production while GNP looks only at the value of production of stuff that is owned by Ukraine.  For example let's say there is an Apple factory in some country A, GDP would count the value the Apple factory brings in to the country while GNP would not unless country A also happens to own Apple.  In most situations GNP is not used except in fringe cases which is telling that the guy is using GNP instead of GDP.

[Occult1]

18 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Once again it's interesting you keep citing that guy talking about GNP, of which almost no one uses as GDP is better in almost all situations for determining economic strength.  For GDP the Donbas region isnt response for 80% of Ukraine's GDP.  The Donbas region accounts for approximately 8% of Ukraine's GDP

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ukrainian_subdivisions_by_GDP_per_capita

Not the most recent economic data but it's good enough.  

For those that dont know GDP looks at essentially the total value of production while GNP looks only at the value of production of stuff that is owned by Ukraine.  For example let's say there is an Apple factory in some country A, GDP would count the value the Apple factory brings in to the country while GNP would not unless country A also happens to own Apple.  In most situations GNP is not used except in fringe cases which is telling that the guy is using GNP instead of GDP.

I am referring to all the Russian-controlled territories in Ukraine, not just the Donbass. Though by itself the Donbass account for 22% of the GDP which is significant:

 

''If all of these provinces are either annexed by Russia or form a nominally independent federation of ‘Greater Novorossiya’, the population of Ukraine would drop from 46 million to 25 million. This would not only subtract nearly 45% of Ukraine’s 2013 population but also roughly two thirds of its GDP, given that the country’s eastern and southern provinces are far more industrialized than those of the center and west.[2] ''

[...]

Out of all the regions in southern and eastern Ukraine that pro-Russian separatists have infiltrated, Donetsk is the most economically significant. Donetsk accounts for 22 percent of Ukraine’s GDP. It also has “12 percent of Ukraine’s natural resources, including 45 percent of coal, aluminum, and ferrous metals, 46 percent of its steel production, and 13 percent of Ukraine’s energy production, all while making up less than 10 percent of Ukraine’s population.”  Larwood, Zane. “Why Donetsk Will Be Next.” Fordham Political Review. https://fordhampoliticalreview.org/why-donetsk-will-be-next/ (accessed May 2, 2014).

https://www.fpri.org/article/2014/05/putins-greater-novorossiya-the-dismemberment-of-ukraine/

Edited July 5, 2022 by Occult1

[el midgetron]

 

[DarkHunter]

7 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

I am referring to all the Russian-controlled territories in Ukraine, not just the Donbass. Though by itself the Donbass account for 22% of the GDP which is significant:

I just provided you a link that shows that the Donbas region only provides approximately 8% of Ukraine's GDP.  If you include the entire oblast of oblast that Russia has some actual level of control over it's like 15%.  You are literally pushing easily verifiable fake information which has been a common theme with you.

[+Nuclear Wessel]

26 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

I just provided you a link that shows that the Donbas region only provides approximately 8% of Ukraine's GDP.  If you include the entire oblast of oblast that Russia has some actual level of control over it's like 15%.  You are literally pushing easily verifiable fake information which has been a common theme with you.

According to this page it's actually like 6% of Ukraine's GDP that the combined GRP of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, if we are using 2019's numbers.

List of Ukrainian subdivisions by GRP - Wikipedia

Might be doing something wrong as I am quite tired right now, but it's even lower than the numbers you suggest - at least, specifically for Donbas.

Splitting hairs, but even if I am wrong the numbers are still obviously much lower than the nonsense that @Occult1 is peddling, which is unsurprising.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Nuclear Wessel

[Occult1]

You are definitely doing something wrong. The credible sources I can find show it's much higher than that.

 

''Donetsk region belongs to industrialised regions of Ukraine. Its input into national industrial production remains high, despite the fact that in the last four years (2017 compared with 2013) the volume of industrial production in the region has declined 2.4 times. In 2016, the Donetsk region is ranked the second among 24 regions of Ukraine by the share of industrial goods sold in the total volume of sales in Ukraine (11.8% vs. 16.3% in 2013).

In respect to the sectorial structure, the region is one which has the predominant share of mining and metallurgical specialization: dominant industries are metallurgical (47.1%) and mining (15.2%) industry, which came as a result of the historical orientation of the country’s economy to extensive exploitation of natural resources.

[...]

The contribution of the primary sector to the GDP of the region has increased (from 18.5% in 2012 to 22.5% in 2016), mainly due to agriculture, which contribution has increased from 4.2% to 7.7%. The fourth part of the gross product (26.5%) provided by the secondary sector of the economy (in 2012 – 23.4%).''

https://tracer-h2020.eu/donetsk-ukraine/

Edited July 5, 2022 by Occult1

[+Nuclear Wessel]

4 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

You are definitely doing something wrong. The credible sources I can find show it's much higher than that.

 

''Donetsk region belongs to industrialised regions of Ukraine. Its input into national industrial production remains high, despite the fact that in the last four years (2017 compared with 2013) the volume of industrial production in the region has declined 2.4 times. In 2016, the Donetsk region is ranked the second among 24 regions of Ukraine by the share of industrial goods sold in the total volume of sales in Ukraine (11.8% vs. 16.3% in 2013).

In respect to the sectorial structure, the region is one which has the predominant share of mining and metallurgical specialization: dominant industries are metallurgical (47.1%) and mining (15.2%) industry, which came as a result of the historical orientation of the country’s economy to extensive exploitation of natural resources.

[...]

The contribution of the primary sector to the GDP of the region has increased (from 18.5% in 2012 to 22.5% in 2016), mainly due to agriculture, which contribution has increased from 4.2% to 7.7%. The fourth part of the gross product (26.5%) provided by the secondary sector of the economy (in 2012 – 23.4%).''

https://tracer-h2020.eu/donetsk-ukraine/

 

You left this out

In 2016, the gross regional product (GRP) of the region amounted to 137.5 billion UAH, or 4.8 billion Euro (5.7% of Ukraine’s GDP, in 2013 – 10.8%). 

The entire Donbas in 2019 made less than that

[Occult1]

24 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

According to this page it's actually like 6% of Ukraine's GDP that the combined GRP of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, if we are using 2019's numbers.

List of Ukrainian subdivisions by GRP - Wikipedia

Might be doing something wrong as I am quite tired right now, but it's even lower than the numbers you suggest - at least, specifically for Donbas.

Splitting hairs, but even if I am wrong the numbers are still obviously much lower than the nonsense that @Occult1 is peddling, which is unsurprising.

The Donbass region have abundant natural resources and, thus, make the area economically very feasible for the future. It's refered to as the 'industrial heartland of Ukraine'. Roughly 80 per cent of Ukraine's oil, natural gas and coal production reserves can also be found in the Dnieper-Donetsk region. If you take a map of the areas occupied or being fought over by Russian forces and then transpose it to a resource map of Ukraine, you begin to understand what it is at stake..The Ukrainian economy will be left permanently disabled. A foothold in the east and south of the country would mean an economic driver, energy security, and a strong and secure strategic position. 

Edited July 5, 2022 by Occult1