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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Grim Reaper 6
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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

I just provided you a link that shows that the Donbas region only provides approximately 8% of Ukraine's GDP.  If you include the entire oblast of oblast that Russia has some actual level of control over it's like 15%.  You are literally pushing easily verifiable fake information which has been a common theme with you.

According to this page it's actually like 6% of Ukraine's GDP that the combined GRP of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, if we are using 2019's numbers.

List of Ukrainian subdivisions by GRP - Wikipedia

Might be doing something wrong as I am quite tired right now, but it's even lower than the numbers you suggest - at least, specifically for Donbas.

Splitting hairs, but even if I am wrong the numbers are still obviously much lower than the nonsense that @Occult1 is peddling, which is unsurprising.

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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Posted (edited)

You are definitely doing something wrong. The credible sources I can find show it's much higher than that.

 

''Donetsk region belongs to industrialised regions of Ukraine. Its input into national industrial production remains high, despite the fact that in the last four years (2017 compared with 2013) the volume of industrial production in the region has declined 2.4 times. In 2016, the Donetsk region is ranked the second among 24 regions of Ukraine by the share of industrial goods sold in the total volume of sales in Ukraine (11.8% vs. 16.3% in 2013).

In respect to the sectorial structure, the region is one which has the predominant share of mining and metallurgical specialization: dominant industries are metallurgical (47.1%) and mining (15.2%) industry, which came as a result of the historical orientation of the country’s economy to extensive exploitation of natural resources.

[...]

The contribution of the primary sector to the GDP of the region has increased (from 18.5% in 2012 to 22.5% in 2016), mainly due to agriculture, which contribution has increased from 4.2% to 7.7%. The fourth part of the gross product (26.5%) provided by the secondary sector of the economy (in 2012 – 23.4%).''

https://tracer-h2020.eu/donetsk-ukraine/

Edited by Occult1
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4 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

You are definitely doing something wrong. The credible sources I can find show it's much higher than that.

 

''Donetsk region belongs to industrialised regions of Ukraine. Its input into national industrial production remains high, despite the fact that in the last four years (2017 compared with 2013) the volume of industrial production in the region has declined 2.4 times. In 2016, the Donetsk region is ranked the second among 24 regions of Ukraine by the share of industrial goods sold in the total volume of sales in Ukraine (11.8% vs. 16.3% in 2013).

In respect to the sectorial structure, the region is one which has the predominant share of mining and metallurgical specialization: dominant industries are metallurgical (47.1%) and mining (15.2%) industry, which came as a result of the historical orientation of the country’s economy to extensive exploitation of natural resources.

[...]

The contribution of the primary sector to the GDP of the region has increased (from 18.5% in 2012 to 22.5% in 2016), mainly due to agriculture, which contribution has increased from 4.2% to 7.7%. The fourth part of the gross product (26.5%) provided by the secondary sector of the economy (in 2012 – 23.4%).''

https://tracer-h2020.eu/donetsk-ukraine/

 

You left this out

In 2016, the gross regional product (GRP) of the region amounted to 137.5 billion UAH, or 4.8 billion Euro (5.7% of Ukraine’s GDP, in 2013 – 10.8%). 

The entire Donbas in 2019 made less than that

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

According to this page it's actually like 6% of Ukraine's GDP that the combined GRP of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, if we are using 2019's numbers.

List of Ukrainian subdivisions by GRP - Wikipedia

Might be doing something wrong as I am quite tired right now, but it's even lower than the numbers you suggest - at least, specifically for Donbas.

Splitting hairs, but even if I am wrong the numbers are still obviously much lower than the nonsense that @Occult1 is peddling, which is unsurprising.

The Donbass region have abundant natural resources and, thus, make the area economically very feasible for the future. It's refered to as the 'industrial heartland of Ukraine'. Roughly 80 per cent of Ukraine's oil, natural gas and coal production reserves can also be found in the Dnieper-Donetsk region. If you take a map of the areas occupied or being fought over by Russian forces and then transpose it to a resource map of Ukraine, you begin to understand what it is at stake..The Ukrainian economy will be left permanently disabled. A foothold in the east and south of the country would mean an economic driver, energy security, and a strong and secure strategic position. 

Edited by Occult1
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5 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

The Donbass region have abundant natural resources and, thus, make the area economically very feasible for the future. It's refered to as the 'industrial heartland of Ukraine'. Roughly 80 per cent of Ukraine's oil, natural gas and coal production reserves can also be found in the Dnieper-Donetsk region. If you take a map of the areas occupied or being fought over by Russian forces and then transpose it to a resource map of Ukraine, you begin to understand what it is at stake..The Ukrainian economy will be left permanently disabled. A foothold in the east and south of the country would mean an economic driver, energy security, and a strong and secure strategic position. 

Okay, but you’re still wrong about how much of Ukraine’s GDP Donbas makes up - let’s not forget that. 

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On 7/2/2022 at 6:17 PM, ThereWeAreThen said:

Ye cause Trump would tell Ukraine to give papa Putler some land.

Evidence to support such an idea?  Just because the majority of corporate media parrot a narrative doesn't make it true.  What we DO know for sure is that the currently installed administration created massive havoc both in Afghanistan and did nothing to stop Putin though we knew he was going to go into Ukraine.  Who ya gonna believe?  The media, or your lyin' eyes?

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Okay, but you’re still wrong about how much of Ukraine’s GDP Donbas makes up - let’s not forget that. 

You are using outdated data that are no longer relevant to the conflict.  Ukraine's GDP is expected to shrink by 45.1% this year, according to the World Bank.

Russia is controlling most of Ukraine's GDP.

They have blocked Ukraine from exporting goods, by controlling the ports (Mariupol, Kherson, Odessa). The Ukrainian government estimates Russia has already destroyed over 500 billions in economic assets. Substantial damage to airports, seaports and bridges has crippled the country's infrastructure and ability to trade with other countries. They are also taking the industrial heartland that is the Donbass and all it's natural resources (oil, gas, coal, minerals).

Edited by Occult1
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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

You are using outdated data that are no longer relevant to the conflict.  Ukraine's GDP is expected to shrink by 45.1% this year, according to the World Bank.

Russia is controlling most of Ukraine's GDP.

They have blocked Ukraine from exporting goods, by controlling the ports (Mariupol, Kherson, Odessa). The Ukrainian government estimates Russia has already destroyed over 500 billions in economic assets. Substantial damage to airports, seaports and bridges has crippled the country's infrastructure and ability to trade with other countries. They are also taking the industrial heartland that is the Donbass and all it's natural resources (oil, gas, coal, minerals).

You were literally just trying to use data from 2013 and 2016 to make a point and you’re calling me out for using “outdated data not relevant to the conflict”? Well if my data was irrelevant then so was yours, so what ****ing point are you trying to make? It’s only irrelevant to the conflict because it proves your typical nonsense to be incorrect.

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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30 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

You were literally just trying to use data from 2013 and 2016 to make a point and you’re calling me out for using “outdated data not relevant to the conflict”? Well if my data was irrelevant then so was yours, so what ****ing point are you trying to make? It’s only irrelevant to the conflict because it proves your typical nonsense to be incorrect.

Meanwhile the Russian economy plunges downward in a death spiral from which it will take decades to recover.

Russia's Economy is Collapsing, Data Reveals (newsweek.com)

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2 hours ago, and then said:

Evidence to support such an idea?  Just because the majority of corporate media parrot a narrative doesn't make it true.  What we DO know for sure is that the currently installed administration created massive havoc both in Afghanistan and did nothing to stop Putin though we knew he was going to go into Ukraine.  Who ya gonna believe?  The media, or your lyin' eyes?

Well I'll hold my hands up cause I cant back up what I said, not found anything apart from Trump trying to stop the $40billion military aid to Ukraine and a half-assed answer on what he would do. But I saw an interview and I think he claims he'd go in, I couldn't really tell cause his speeches confuse me. I'm not saying that cause obviously I'm not a fan but his speeches dont seem to make sense to me. Regards to Afghanistan I think it wouldve been a mess anyway. No idea how that would've got sorted.

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40 minutes ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

But Cookie said the sanctions aren't working. :unsure2:

The link is cherry picking to try and portray a Russian Collapse.

Their GDP grew by 3.5% in Q1 2022, Q2 will soon be out. Likewise the US GDP contracted by 1.6% and they are expected to be in recession when Q2 figures are released. Recession is two or more successive periods of contraction.

Sanctions only prevent Russian exports to the West and Japan. But, and this is crucial, the sectors sanctioned such as oil and gas are limited in supply around the world meaning there are no alternatives. Hence, the prices increase so while Russia sells less it gets more for its sales. Its surplus was already close to $100 billion in April Russia's January-April current account surplus more than triples to $96 billion | Reuters but prices have continued to rise. When Q2 is out prepare for a shock.

What sanctions mean is internally Russian businesses have to switch to new suppliers, and in the short-term this creates re-adjustment. Cherry picking in an attempt to portray that as a collapse is just propaganda. Russia is largely immune from the effects of sanctions on oil, gas, vegetable oil, fertilizer, and grain. Why? Everyone needs them, they are not in amble supply around the world. So as these are the backbone of the Russian economy our sanctions were always going to fail.

In fact, it is quite evident already, that are sanctions are hurting us and driving up the Russian surplus. In essence, they are doing better now than they were before sanctions were implemented. That is ridiculous and I think Biden needs to resign for extremely poor decision making.

There is only one way to deal with Russia and thats to grab what they want to grab, first. Sweden and Finland have been brought onboard, we need to deploy NATO into Ukraine before even more of their territory has been lost. Waging a long-term proxy war will fail. It will fail because of the economic problems we will cause ourselves while driving up the Russian surplus.

We are giving them the money to fund their war machine, and replace lost units with newer equipment. Instead of sanctions (and it doesn`t take an Einstein to realise this) we should have increased the production of our own hydrocarbons. Something Trump was doing, but Biden has reversed. Why? Well it drives down the price of gas and oil. Low gas and oil prices hurt the Russian economy as thats their largest export sector. It means they get less, as opposed to more, from sales.

We have it backwards.

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9 hours ago, Grey Area said:

You threw that in because I have posted about Brexit and have you on ignore?

Really?  So you thought I wouldn’t see your comment and threw in an insult for the kicks?

For the record I ignore you, but don’t have you on ignore.

But that, sir, is the behaviour of a first rate a**hole and a coward to boot.  Not only did it have nothing to do with this thread, it is patently untrue.

Never mind online reputation, in real life your support of Brexit has helped impoverish the UK and damaged it's independence and standing as a soft power in the world. And personally, you have made me poorer with inflation and a possible recession exacerbated by the trade barriers and immigration barriers Brexit has established, and prevented me retiring easily in another part of my own continent. All so you can wake up in the morning feeling you are 'free' of unelected bureaucrats and a corrupt political system- yet you support the incompetent unelected Frost and our clownish government who would never get near to power if it wasn't for Brexit. So your opinion of me is nothing compared to my opinion of you.

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Oh look. Occults back now that Russia actually took something lol

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16 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

Oh look. Occults back now that Russia actually took something lol

I think @Helen of Annoy needs to channel her inner she-demon to send the bear back to its cave. It didn't hibernate long enough apparently

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5 hours ago, The Silver Shroud said:

Never mind online reputation, in real life your support of Brexit has helped impoverish the UK and damaged it's independence and standing as a soft power in the world. And personally, you have made me poorer with inflation and a possible recession exacerbated by the trade barriers and immigration barriers Brexit has established, and prevented me retiring easily in another part of my own continent. All so you can wake up in the morning feeling you are 'free' of unelected bureaucrats and a corrupt political system- yet you support the incompetent unelected Frost and our clownish government who would never get near to power if it wasn't for Brexit. So your opinion of me is nothing compared to my opinion of you.

As much as I would love to respond to your personal hatred of me, this thread is about Ukraine.  It is not fair that you treat these boards as a blanket platform to air your Brexit woes.

Feel free to vent your anger towards me in a PM or appropriate thread, but at least throw an insult my way that I am at least vaguely guilty of.

Or else put up and shut up.

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Posted (edited)

Pro-Russian separatist forces descend on Donetsk; Ukrainian civilians told to flee as heavy shelling hits region

Pro-Russian separatist forces from the self-styled Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” (known as the DPR and LPR) are moving toward the Donetsk province, the head of the DPR Denis Pushilin said on Tuesday, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

“We can already say that our corps, the first corps that took part and helped our brothers [in the liberation of the LPR], is already moving to the Donetsk direction as well as the second corps [from] Luhansk,” Pushilin said.

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/russia-shells-ukraines-donetsk-region-seeking-new-gains-after-seizing-luhansk

 

Ukraine has set new defensive lines in Donetsk after losing the Luhansk region.

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2 hours ago, spartan max2 said:

Oh look. Occults back now that Russia actually took something lol

One has to admit that so far my predictions have been right. I predicted that the Russian air power and superior artillery would tip the balance in the Donbass.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

One has to admit that so far my predictions have been right. I predicted that the Russian air power and superior artillery would tip the balance in the Donbass.

Is that what you've been predicting, or is that what the sources that you copy-paste have been saying? Because there's a distinction to be made, there. You also "predicted" that the entirety of Ukraine would fall in a matter of a few days, and here we are with the entirety of Donbas still being contested.

Seems that your predictions have only ever been as good as the claims your sources have made.

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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11 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

One has to admit that so far my predictions have been right. I predicted that the Russian air power and superior artillery would tip the balance in the Donbass.

Hi Occult

Might want to wait till the war is actually over before claiming any superiority as as it stands now they have had one hell of a time getting the little they have so far and guns are still blazing. It is far from over yet and I really doubt that they can hold it.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Occult

Might want to wait till the war is actually over before claiming any superiority as as it stands now they have had one hell of a time getting the little they have so far and guns are still blazing. It is far from over yet and I really doubt that they can hold it.

Russia's gains are ephemeral. I think there will be more advancements made, but none of them will be sustainable. Putin, unfortunately, underestimated NATO's resolve on the matter, and is now dealing with the fallout of that. It went completely opposite to how he wanted it to go - he didn't want Finland and Sweden to join NATO, but they were just recently offered membership; they didn't want NATO troops on their borders, and now they will have to deal with 300K+ NATO troops in Europe, surrounding them. He made a huge gamble but his ego is preventing him from folding and is only going to cost more significant hardship for the Russian people, as the long-term impact of the sanctions finally start to take hold, in addition to NATO provisions to Ukraine.

EU is actually drafting a rebuilding plan for Ukraine, so I'm guessing they have a high degree of intelligence to suggest that Ukraine is going to hold out in this conflict, otherwise I reckon that there wouldn't be such a huge focus on this.

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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Posted (edited)

Russian parliament passes first vote on war economy measures

Russian politicians have given the first stamp of approval to two bills enabling the government to oblige businesses to supply goods to the military and request their employees to work overtime.

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/5/ukraine-russia-live-news-kyiv-prepares-for-donetsk-battles-liveblo

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3522376-president-zelensky-russia-will-end-war-if-all-sanctions-fully-implemented.html

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes Russia will not be able to continue the war against Ukraine if all sanctions, introduced by the world, are fully implemented.

...

"If all the sanctions introduced by the European Union, and all the sanctions introduced separately by the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia and the entire world – if all these sanctions are 100% implemented, without exceptions, I am sure it will not be easy for the world, but it will be very difficult for Russia, and it will end the war,” Zelensky told.

...

In his words, sanctions are introduced not only because of Ukraine but because of violations of international law and freedom of speech, human rights and principles of democracy.

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NATO poised to sign accession protocols for Sweden, Finland

The 30 NATO allies are set to sign off on the accession protocols for Sweden and Finland, sending the membership bids of the two nations to the alliance’s capitals for legislative approvals.

The 30 ambassadors and permanent representatives are to formally approve the decision taken at last week’s NATO summit, when the alliance invited the Nordic countries to join the military club.

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/5/ukraine-russia-live-news-kyiv-prepares-for-donetsk-battles-liveblog

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