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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Grim Reaper 6
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Putin has 60% of his armed forces placed near the border, nice of him to put them in one place for cruse missile target practice. 

I am surprised NATO haven't put a no fly zone in place.

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15 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Hasn't Putin already basically alluded to nuclear war if NATO were to get involved? "Nobody would win", I believe is what he said.

Unless Putin wants to go and turn the keys himself I doubt his generals would give the order.  Russians aren't as dumb or fanatical as you think maybe?

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@Helen of Annoy

You appear to be quite well informed.

I hope you don't mind me asking, but is that because you as a Croat(?), and once a Yugoslavian, can read and understand Russian? And thus be able to understand the Russian news broadcasts, Russian websites, and newspapers.

I really do appreciate your knowledge about Russia and Russians.

I just wanted that to have that said.

:tu:

Edited by Abramelin
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1 hour ago, OverSword said:

That nukes would be used by either side is what I doubt.

You have more faith in the sanity of global leaders than I do.  I believe we'd be much more likely to see a "first use" by a religious fundamentalist country but Putin has made it very clear that Russia would use nukes to "defend the motherland".  The problem with this is he seems to believe the Rodina exists anywhere there is a single community of Russian-speakers.  Neither the U.S. nor NATO is going to use nukes against Russia for invading Ukraine.  If he rolls the dice, which it now seems almost certain he is, then his intention will be to get in and badly damage Ukraine's military and then install a puppet and pull the troops back out.  

The Ukrainians look like they've decided they are willing to bleed and die for freedom from a Russian boot and so long as they have a ready supply of things that go BANG!, Russian forces will be sending boys home in bags.  Ukraine will become a blood-sponge and frustration against sanctions that bite as well as an unpopular war at home, could lead to Putin miscalculating.  Ultimately, all wars begin like a game of poker.

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Seems US intelligence is saying Russia was/is planning on a false flag attack of Ukraine using chemical weapons on civilians.

 

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7 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Seems US intelligence is saying Russia was/is planning on a false flag attack of Ukraine using chemical weapons on civilians.

 

I hope justice is served on a very cold plate to those b*******. Attacking a kindergarten, now possibly attacking innocent civilians with chemical weapons? This is going to get very very bad. 

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Why is Russia threatening Ukraine?

Russia has long resisted Ukraine's move towards European institutions, both Nato and the EU. Its core demand now is for the West to guarantee Ukraine will not join Nato, a defensive alliance of 30 countries.

Ukraine shares borders with both the EU and Russia, but as a former Soviet republic it has deep social and cultural ties with Russia, and Russian is widely spoken there.

When Ukrainians deposed their pro-Russian president in early 2014, Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimean peninsula and backed separatists who captured large swathes of eastern Ukraine. The rebels have fought the Ukrainian military ever since in a conflict that has claimed more than 14,000 lives.

Is Russia going to invade Ukraine and what does Putin want? - BBC News

Edited by The Silver Shroud
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20 hours ago, Abramelin said:

@Helen of Annoy

You appear to be quite well informed.

I hope you don't mind me asking, but is that because you as a Croat(?), and once a Yugoslavian, can read and understand Russian? And thus be able to understand the Russian news broadcasts, Russian websites, and newspapers.

I really do appreciate your knowledge about Russia and Russians.

I just wanted that to have that said.

:tu:

Thank you, Abe. I'm worried that I'm being tiresome with my ranting comments, so I'm glad to hear you don't mind.

Yes, I'm Croatian. (I used an adjective, since it applies to both genders. Noun Croat is correct too, but it describes males. Since I'm baba - a grandmother - it's more accurate to say Croatess :D )

I'm not fluent in Russian, but I can read Cyrillic so it's not all Greek to me :D  The conflict is closely followed by Croatian media too, naturally. There are connections between Slavic nations, more resilient than political changes.  

Ukrainian situation is a rerun of Croatian situation. There are differences, of course, but the essence of the situation is the same. (USSR=Yugoslavia, Russia=Serbia etc. I never had a problem when people would define the disintegration of ex-YU and the following wars as proxy conflict between the West and Russia. It was an accurate definition of the nature of these conflicts. I see "my" Homeland war as exactly that, my Homeland war, but it was indeed at the same time proxy war between the West and the East. Not to digress too far.)

I also feel for every Slavic nation, because we are more similar than we're ready to admit. The conflict which Putin is forcing upon two Slavic nations is a catastrophe seen from both sides of their border, just like "my" war was a catastrophe for everyone involved, voluntary or not.  

I'm disgusted with Russian aggression against Ukraine because it's bad for Ukraine and worse for Russia. Each Slavic nation is a dying nation, our numbers dwindle so fast. Doesn't matter, we'll go extinct and someone else will fill our place, it's a natural process I guess, but it's so morbidly hilarious when supposedly great nationalists are working on killing their nation faster. Just to spite the neighbour. And they claim they're Christian too, at the same time... to make it more grotesque. 

Anyway... 

 

Leaders of pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk ordered the evacuation of civilians to Russia.

It's the exact same thing pro-Serbian (who happened to be pro-Russian too) separatist leader did in Croatia, in 1995, immediately blaming Croatia for genocide because they've been thrown out of the country. They weren't thrown out by Croatia, they were guaranteed safety and asked to stay, with peaceful reintegration already in place. They left because separatists ordered so (some of Croatian Serbs forcefully "evacuated" at gunpoint, others driven into panic by their separatist authorities), since separatists wanted no peaceful anything, no reintegration, they wanted to change the border and glue their ethnically cleansed territory into Greater Serbia. When that failed after 5 years of creeping conflict (another thing that is virtually the same in Donbass), they pulled out, destroying everything they could on their way out, rather than accepting guaranteed international protection and limited but real and safe autonomy. 

This is what is going on in Donetsk and Luhansk right now. If it can't be Russia, in all its turbo-nationalist fervor, they want no reintegration, no peace, they'll do the "scorched earth" as they leave.  

The self-inflicted exodus will be used as the "proof" of Ukrainian genocidal intentions. 

Since the analogy is just too strong, I expect Putin will retaliate (like Milošević did 25+ years ago) by firing also at the capitol, Kyiv. He'll achieve nothing with a turd on top. 

What he seems to be doing is letting Donbass go, because he apparently knows he can't keep both Donbass and expanded Crimean territory. He'll try expanding occupied area to connect Crimea with Russia. I wasn't sure what he's aiming at (Donbass, or Crimea, or both, or invasion) before this pulling out of Donbass. 

If I can see that, then everyone can see that. Which is a good thing in this bad situation. 

Edited by Helen of Annoy
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5 hours ago, The Silver Shroud said:

Why is Russia threatening Ukraine?

Russia has long resisted Ukraine's move towards European institutions, both Nato and the EU. Its core demand now is for the West to guarantee Ukraine will not join Nato, a defensive alliance of 30 countries.

Ukraine shares borders with both the EU and Russia, but as a former Soviet republic it has deep social and cultural ties with Russia, and Russian is widely spoken there.

When Ukrainians deposed their pro-Russian president in early 2014, Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimean peninsula and backed separatists who captured large swathes of eastern Ukraine. The rebels have fought the Ukrainian military ever since in a conflict that has claimed more than 14,000 lives.

Is Russia going to invade Ukraine and what does Putin want? - BBC News

The Ukrainians didn`t depose their pro-Russian president.

Two minor far-right parties with NATO & EU support succeeded in a coup. There has been no referendum to ascertain if the population want to be in the EU, left separate, or close with Russia.

But the dispute from Russia`s side is that NATO is a potential enemy, and they dont want an enemy on their border. This is mostly because NATO builds AMD silos (missiles that intercept ICBMs before they reach orbit) and with the arrival of hypersonic missiles they are worried that NATO could do them without them being able to use their deterrent effectively.

Crimea was about the Russian naval base there, which is their only realistic access to the Middle East. And the two separatist areas were about the Ukrainian Government legislating to make it illegal for citizens to hold dual Russian citizenship and speak Russian in them.

The crises is a mess how it stands today.

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12 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

The crises is a mess how it stands today.

Putin made this quote once: "If a fight is inevitable, throw the first punch"

He already has made it clear that he feels threatened by NATO. If he feels that a fight with them is inevitable, there is really no telling what could happen. This is going to be an absolute cluster**** of a disaster that I see pouring way over into other countries beyond Ukraine's border. The US has ordered even more troops to be deployed into Hungary, even closer to Ukraine.

I can't believe this **** is happening.

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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4 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Putin made this quote once: "If a fight is inevitable, throw the first punch"

He already has made it clear that he feels threatened by NATO. If he feels that a fight with them is inevitable, there is really no telling what could happen. This is going to be an absolute cluster**** of a disaster that I see pouring way over into other countries beyond Ukraine's border. The US has ordered even more troops to be deployed into Hungary, even closer to Ukraine.

I can't believe this **** is happening.

Of course, he isn`t going to stop at Ukraine if he goes for it.

He will take Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Moldovia, Finland, Romania, and Bulgaria. He may or may not take Poland, but if not they will neutralise the AMD silos NATO has built in the country.

The US/UK/France are not going to have a nuclear exchange with Russia over it, when push comes to shove they are not loosing countless millions of their citizens to save another people regardless of some of them being in NATO. NATO will then crumble.

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5 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

The US/UK/France are not going to have a nuclear exchange with Russia over it,

If Putin feels desperate enough I do think he will use nuclear options. If nuclear options are used, you can be assured of a response.

I genuinely see him as somebody who would take everybody down with him if he had no other way out.

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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57 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

If Putin feels desperate enough I do think he will use nuclear options. If nuclear options are used, you can be assured of a response.

I genuinely see him as somebody who would take everybody down with him if he had no other way out.

Yes.

But I also genuinely see him removed from the position of the president of RF at the moment it starts smelling like he would actually use nukes. 

As long as he's talking about it, it's just awkward. The moment those around him get an impression he might be serious, they will remove him. It's one thing to be a nationalist, or a careerist and something entirely else to directly kill majority of life in Northern Hemisphere right away and the rest of it few months later, your entire family with cats included.  

I thought he won't attack at all, because that would be against his interests. Very much. But the fact is, he is attacking right now. I'm trying to say he doesn't seem right in his head. (Probably bluff after bluff to cover for the bluff and the ultimate bluff didn't work and now he's got no way out. Someone will have to help him find a way out.)  

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On Twitter the two break away provinces have started evacuating civilians and Russian tanks have moved right up to the border.

Its coming!!!!

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4 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

The US/UK/France are not going to have a nuclear exchange with Russia over it

I don't believe he will try to take it that far.  If he actually enters a NATO country then he KNOWS there will be war with NATO.  He surely would like to split the union but he knows that if he pulls NATO down on his head, it will not be THEY who must resort to nukes.  The U.S. alone has sufficient conventional power to remove every Russian boot from that territory and the little man understands this.  The only real danger will be his mindset and beliefs regarding the weakness of will in America today.

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Looks like they finally got around to using the "magic words".  :(   

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Depending on the estimates between 150,000 and 200,000 Russian troops at the border.  About 125 battalion tactical groups.  Not all soldiers present are in a battalion tactical group.  A lot of helicopters at various airfields around Ukraine along with increased number of fighter aircraft.  Pics of armored vehicles used by the VDV (Russian air assault units) have been sighted near Ukraine equipped with parachutes.  

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28 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Depending on the estimates between 150,000 and 200,000 Russian troops at the border.  About 125 battalion tactical groups.  Not all soldiers present are in a battalion tactical group.  A lot of helicopters at various airfields around Ukraine along with increased number of fighter aircraft.  Pics of armored vehicles used by the VDV (Russian air assault units) have been sighted near Ukraine equipped with parachutes.  

190,000, more tanks being taken in by train, and they have tactical nukes already at the front.

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1 hour ago, and then said:

I don't believe he will try to take it that far. 

To be fair, a lot of people didn't think he would take it as far as he already has. Like @Helen of Annoy mentioned, his mental state seems to be out of balance, so there is no telling what he will do. At this point I don't think it's wise to try and analyze Putin from a perspective of rationality. I think, at this point, it's better to look at him as somebody who has an unquenchable thirst for power. Hyperbolic as heck, but it's true.

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11 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

To be fair, a lot of people didn't think he would take it as far as he already has. Like @Helen of Annoy mentioned, his mental state seems to be out of balance, so there is no telling what he will do. At this point I don't think it's wise to try and analyze Putin from a perspective of rationality. I think, at this point, it's better to look at him as somebody who has an unquenchable thirst for power. Hyperbolic as heck, but it's true.

Watch Russian news to understand their perspective.

He is behaving like a man with his back to the wall because of the pressure applied by NATO.

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3 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

He is behaving like a man with his back to the wall because of the pressure applied by NATO.

He's behaving like he wants to reunify the USSR.

Quote

 

Putin says Russia, Belarus made "serious progress" in building "Union State"

From CNN's Uliana Pavlova and Nathan Hodge in Moscow

Russia and Belarus have made “serious progress” in merging the political and economic structures of their two countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday during a meeting with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko. 

“We have made serious progress in the construction of the 'Union State,'” Putin said. “Our colleagues have worked hard and have prepared 28 good programs, and development has been going on in many of these areas for a long time."

The two leaders have overseen efforts to deepen the integration of the two countries as part of a longstanding project to develop a so-called "Union State," and Putin noted updated bilateral initiatives in migration, economy, and military matters, among other items.

 

 

 
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34 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

To be fair, a lot of people didn't think he would take it as far as he already has. Like @Helen of Annoy mentioned, his mental state seems to be out of balance, so there is no telling what he will do. At this point I don't think it's wise to try and analyze Putin from a perspective of rationality. I think, at this point, it's better to look at him as somebody who has an unquenchable thirst for power. Hyperbolic as heck, but it's true.

Well, just remember that even if he has lost his mind and is willing to use nukes, he cannot make that decision alone.  I suspect some of his buddies and his generals would quietly put him down before they'd let it get that far.  Is it POSSIBLE?  Yeah, anything is possible.  I just think the chance of it being a cool, premeditated decision is very unlikely.  If it were to happen it would be down to a sudden escalation that left little time for cooler heads to prevail.  Something like an unintended downing of a NATO surveillance aircraft or an errant missile strike into one of the Baltic states might trigger a catastrophe.  There are plenty of opportunities for this to go sideways to a catastrophic degree.  

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20 minutes ago, and then said:

I suspect some of his buddies and his generals would quietly put him down before they'd let it get that far.

As in Project Valkyrie, I am sure there would be some of those in his inner circle who would try, but it's not beyond the realm of likelihood that there are those who share the same exact views that Putin has. He is the supreme commander of the military and it's likely that he has surrounded himself with those who have an identical mindset.

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29 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

As in Project Valkyrie, I am sure there would be some of those in his inner circle who would try, but it's not beyond the realm of likelihood that there are those who share the same exact views that Putin has. He is the supreme commander of the military and it's likely that he has surrounded himself with those who have an identical mindset.

Let’s hope that some of Generals have considered putting him down, but anyway you view it this is a bad situation and hopefully it will end soon!

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12 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

As in Project Valkyrie, I am sure there would be some of those in his inner circle who would try, but it's not beyond the realm of likelihood that there are those who share the same exact views that Putin has. He is the supreme commander of the military and it's likely that he has surrounded himself with those who have an identical mindset.

On the brighter side, there are people, in each setting, intelligent enough to give convincing impression of being trustworthy, while being ready to do what's necessary.   

 

(The fault in the Valkyrie plan was its complexity. Once you're conspiring in that manner, you're dead anyway, don't complicate, make it happen, directly. I was wondering what kept generals around Hitler from putting a bullet in his forehead, or breaking his neck, literally. I came to conclusion that they were suffering from lack of arrogance :D None of them thought they've got mandate to do it, by their own hand. The consequence of their lack of initiative was war being lost in the most damaging way for Germany. 

Then a more relevant historic example comes to mind. Stalin's death. Was he really lying with stroke for hours, simply because no one dared to disturb him, unaware he's dying, or simply because they waited for the devil to exit its human body at last, and didn't want to risk calling doctor in case there was a possibility doctors could save Stalin's life. And there's legend that says Stalin's stroke was caused or at least enhanced by a hammer blow into his head :D I always loved that possibility more than the official story. 

And there's Putin's own fear of being retired in an act of revolution. Certainly, western-orchestrated revolution because apparently in pro-Russian sphere of propaganda thought, revolutions don't happen when the people are fed up, they happen only if the West orchestrates them. Which makes me repeat that believing own propaganda instead of facts is how the worst **** happens.) 

 

So chief of Donetsk "police" blew his own car up, now Luhansk blew their own pipeline up. It starts to look like a morbidly humorous contest of sorts. 

I know it's supposed to be used to blame Ukraine and it's been used in that way in Russian media, and it's also a part of "scorched land" doctrine, but it's just ridiculous. Donbas was ruined in years of separatist occupation, there's not much left to destroy. "Evacuation" calls were recorded two days before supposed reason for evacuation happened. Ukraine is calling people to stay at home. There're millions of Russians who were told a different story and they'll believe anything Putin's media tells them. But there're millions of Russians knowing everything we do, rolling their eyes the same I do.      

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