Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[jmccr8]

2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Erdogan is the mastermind behind the Ukraine-Russia grain deal though.

I think he has proved Turkey can mediate, should there be a sincere attempt to end the conflict on both sides.

Hi Occult 

Wasn’t Russia shipping stolen Ukrainian grain to sell to their buddies at that time?

[Black Red Devil]

2 hours ago, Unusual Tournament said:

We’ve had boots on the ground for 1 year and nothing has happened other than a stalemate. Anti tank weapons have made offence redundant. Only AirPower will save Ukraine.

For most of the war Ukraine has had to dig in and defend.  Their real offensive started when they reconquered Kherson and nowthey're in a stage where they've having to balance their war efforts between defense and attack.  While Russia is fully committed to attacking.  Currently it's become a war of attrition, not because both Forces are willing to resort to WW1 trench warfare but because the Russians are on the offensive finding it hard to breakthrough and the Ukranians don't have enough prolific weaponry to counterattack.

When NATO gives Ukraine the necessary (superior NATO) equipment to counterattack, Russia will end up retreating and lose territory they've bled months trying to conquer (Bakhmut?).  So, you're right, obviously you need a good balance of defensive and attacking weapons but morale plays also an important part.  Pushing back Russian forces after the enormous effort they've made to take the rest of Donbas so far, with little gain after the initial invasion, would be a crucial blow in this war and it could be a decisive turning point moment IMO.

[Unusual Tournament]

@Helen of Annoy

Some food has gone directly to the poorest countries in the world, and some has been shipped to countries where people are at risk of starvation, under UN humanitarian relief programmes.

However, UN figures show that the bulk of Ukrainian food exported in the last three months has been going to Spain, Turkey, Italy, China and the Netherlands.
 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-61759692.amp

 

[Unusual Tournament]

2 minutes ago, Black Red Devil said:

For most of the war Ukraine has had to dig in and defend.  Their real offensive started when they reconquered Kherson and nowthey're in a stage where they've having to balance their war efforts between defense and attack.  While Russia is fully committed to attacking.  Currently it's become a war of attrition, not because both Forces are willing to resort to WW1 trench warfare but because the Russians are on the offensive finding it hard to breakthrough and the Ukranians don't have enough prolific weaponry to counterattack.

When NATO gives Ukraine the necessary (superior NATO) equipment to counterattack, Russia will end up retreating and lose territory they've bled months trying to conquer (Bakhmut?).  So, you're right, obviously you need a good balance of defensive and attacking weapons but morale plays also an important part.  Pushing back Russian forces after the enormous effort they've made to take the rest of Donbas so far, with little gain after the initial invasion, would be a crucial blow in this war and it could be a decisive turning point moment IMO.

I agree. Ukraine would welcome all weapons. Western MBT’s would crush Russian tanks in a one on one fight.
 

All these weapons would have made a real difference 9 months ago. Now I’m not so sure. But I understand your points. 

[Duke Wellington]

3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Kremlin tells 'deluded' West that tanks for Ukraine will change nothing

''MOSCOW, Jan 20 (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Friday that Western countries supplying additional tanks to Ukraine would not change the course of the conflict and the West would regret its "delusion" that Ukraine could win on the battlefield. 

European leaders meeting at the Ramstein U.S. Air Base in Germany urged Berlin on Friday to give the green light for the delivery of German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine to drive back Moscow's forces, although no decision was made.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: "We have repeatedly said that such supplies will not fundamentally change anything but will add problems for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people."

Asked whether the supply of increasingly advanced weapons to Ukraine meant the conflict was escalating, he said: "We see a growing indirect and sometimes direct involvement of NATO countries in this conflict ...''

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-tells-deluded-west-that-tanks-ukraine-will-change-nothing-2023-01-20/

 

Will tanks be a game-changer?

At some stage Russia will loose its temper and level Ukraine.

They have avoided doing that so far due to kinship. But there will come a point where they will launch a no holds barred air campaign like we did to Iraq. They will hit ports, airports, railway lines, bridges, oil refineries, industry, major corporations, the banking and financial sector, telecommunications, military command centres, and powerplants. Not just firing off 100 missiles at just a few of them as a response to blowing up one of their bridges. They will level the country.

And then if that doesn`t deal with it the tactical nukes will come out. I maintain my position that Russia will win.

[Duke Wellington]

31 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Russian offensive tactics have devolved to unprotected infantry charges over open terrain.

From what I understand that is a picture taken by Ukranian forces of an attempted Russian attack along the Zaporizhzhia front.

Thats obviously fake.

They arent dispersed correctly and I dont see any guns, and they are all wearing white trousers instead of combats.

[godnodog]

2 hours ago, Unusual Tournament said:

don’t really know why the grain couldn’t have been shipped to Poland or Romania? Zelensky is a tool for negotiating Ukraine’s economic rights to the protection of Russia and Turkey. So in that sense Erdogan is a genius.
 

But Turkey’s motives are suspect at best. Erdogan would like to solidify Russian gains to give his own ambitions at grabbing Syrian, Iraqi and Greek territories a precedent. 
 

There isn't logistics capable of handling the amount of stock.

[godnodog]

32 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

I agree. Ukraine would welcome all weapons. Western MBT’s would crush Russian tanks in a one on one fight.
 

All these weapons would have made a real difference 9 months ago. Now I’m not so sure. But I understand your points. 

9 months ago they would at best stopped Russia from moving in so deep. Now it would probably, make a decisive difference if well military decisions are made, as any potential quantities would still come short in the overall picture, and by this most likely these tanks would be used in specific areas and not spread through out the front lines.

[Helen of Annoy]

@Unusual Tournament Go back to my post where I explained to you why is the question you asked stupid and also why is the rest of that post of yours pure cretinism with strong smell of russian ****.

By some magic which you would understand if you knew anything about geography, grain and Ukraine, I know exactly which routes were used, and what logistic challenge that was. While the drooling idiot who puts the propaganda you post together does not even know that the railway between Ukraine and Romania was restored this summer.

Weapons grade stupidity. Typical russian propaganda, after all. Illogical crap for imbeciles who are too lazy to check the "facts". 

I won't even start about cretinism with Turkey being willing to let russia have Crimea.  

Go in peace now or I'll get a little angry.  

 

[godnodog]

17 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

At some stage Russia will loose its temper and level Ukraine.

They have avoided doing that so far due to kinship. But there will come a point where they will launch a no holds barred air campaign like we did to Iraq. They will hit ports, airports, railway lines, bridges, oil refineries, industry, major corporations, the banking and financial sector, telecommunications, military command centres, and powerplants. Not just firing off 100 missiles at just a few of them as a response to blowing up one of their bridges. They will level the country.

And then if that doesn`t deal with it the tactical nukes will come out. I maintain my position that Russia will win.

You and I have clearly different perspective of what kinship is

[Helen of Annoy]

 

And it won't take 17 years as pro-orcs desperately want to believe.  

 

[DarkHunter]

34 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

Thats obviously fake.

They arent dispersed correctly and I dont see any guns, and they are all wearing white trousers instead of combats.

Conscript troops with little to no training not being dispersed correctly isnt exactly uncommon.  It fits with most combat footage showing Russian troops bunching up.

Second a lot of winter uniforms tend to be white or have white elements to them.

From a zoomed in picture taken from the drone its extremely obvious they are soldiers.

Given your track record of waving away anything and everything that portrays the Russian military negatively you will probably wave away that picture also.

Also as of today who controls Odessa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson.

[Helen of Annoy]

 

[+Nuclear Wessel]

4 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Kremlin tells 'deluded' West that tanks for Ukraine will change nothing

''MOSCOW, Jan 20 (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Friday that Western countries supplying additional tanks to Ukraine would not change the course of the conflict and the West would regret its "delusion" that Ukraine could win on the battlefield. 

European leaders meeting at the Ramstein U.S. Air Base in Germany urged Berlin on Friday to give the green light for the delivery of German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine to drive back Moscow's forces, although no decision was made.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: "We have repeatedly said that such supplies will not fundamentally change anything but will add problems for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people."

Asked whether the supply of increasingly advanced weapons to Ukraine meant the conflict was escalating, he said: "We see a growing indirect and sometimes direct involvement of NATO countries in this conflict ...''

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-tells-deluded-west-that-tanks-ukraine-will-change-nothing-2023-01-20/

 

Will tanks be a game-changer?

Generally speaking, if it's not going to change anything then it's best not to announce such, because that would just encourage the West to provide armaments that are even more sophisticated.

"Oh, these won't make a difference? Perfect - let's re-evaluate and send them more powerful equipment."

[Black Red Devil]

5 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Erdogan is the mastermind behind the Ukraine-Russia grain deal though.

I think he has proved Turkey can mediate, should there be a sincere attempt to end the conflict on both sides.

Anyone can mediate, but what's the point?  What you and oithers are doing is playing the Devil's Advocate because, using simplistic rationale, it's quite straight forward.  Putin illegally annexed Ukrainian territory which most countries in the UN rightly condemned.  By International Law standards the only thing to negotiate now is how quickly Putin needs to pull his troops out and how much to pay for reparations and war crimes.

I'm sure Western Govts would be happy to see a defeated Russia, the removal of Putin and one less antagonist in the world to contend with, but turning this into a claim that the West risks a nuclear war for supplying Ukraine with weapons to defeat Russia's annexations really goes against the idea of what International Law is all about, without which, we'd be back to the Age of Empires and Kings conquering the world by invading weaker States and territories.  Simply, nobody is forcing Russia, all they have to do is walk away from foreign territory and they won't risk defeat.  Maybe a deflated ego, but technically not a war defeat as in the case of one surrendering to an opponent.

In the end, Russians can claim the Donbass and Crimea Russian territory as much as they want but it's a breach of International war which 193 countries in the world committed to when they joined the UN (including Russia!) and of these, 143 countries (74%) have outrightly condemned the occupation.

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Black Red Devil

[Unusual Tournament]

3 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

At some stage Russia will loose its temper and level Ukraine.

They have avoided doing that so far due to kinship. But there will come a point where they will launch a no holds barred air campaign like we did to Iraq. They will hit ports, airports, railway lines, bridges, oil refineries, industry, major corporations, the banking and financial sector, telecommunications, military command centres, and powerplants. Not just firing off 100 missiles at just a few of them as a response to blowing up one of their bridges. They will level the country.

And then if that doesn`t deal with it the tactical nukes will come out. I maintain my position that Russia will win.

It’s not even about helping Ukraine if weapons systems come after the fact. It’s just constant escalation. Playing poker with someone else chips. The Ukrainians are gonna lose one way of the other

[Unusual Tournament]

3 hours ago, godnodog said:

There isn't logistics capable of handling the amount of stock.

Sure there is. The Russians have mined the entire Ukraine coast and the Turks shut off the straits to foreign warships. Create a problem then propose a solution. The grain and agricultural produce can just as easily make its way to Romania and loaded aboard ships. You can send some through Poland and Croatia (thou I’m afraid @Helen of Annoy will meet the trucks and trains and give them all an earful). 

[+Nuclear Wessel]

23 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

The Ukrainians are gonna lose one way of the other

I just had a thought.

What if NATO admits Ukraine at “the last second”? Perhaps I’ll put my conspiracy theorist hat on for a second.

What if some deals have been made to evict Turkey from NATO and subsequently admit Finland, Sweden, and Ukraine into NATO (since Turkey seems to be the most problematic country within the organization), effective immediately? Obviously I haven’t worked the kinks out (this is basically me throwing crap at the wall), but it would be an interesting turn of events if there exists some kind of a “collective” plan for NATO to weaken Russia by allowing them to do basically everything they’ve been doing, only to have their entire campaign nullified once they decide to deliver the killing blow, which would be to admit Ukraine into NATO.

There are probably a number of issues with my idea, but I think it would be fascinating to see it played out like that.

[Unusual Tournament]

23 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

I just had a thought.

What if NATO admits Ukraine at “the last second”? Perhaps I’ll put my conspiracy theorist hat on for a second.

What if some deals have been made to evict Turkey from NATO and subsequently admit Finland, Sweden, and Ukraine into NATO (since Turkey seems to be the most problematic country within the organization), effective immediately? Obviously I haven’t worked the kinks out (this is basically me throwing crap at the wall), but it would be an interesting turn of events if there exists some kind of a “collective” plan for NATO to weaken Russia by allowing them to do basically everything they’ve been doing, only to have their entire campaign nullified once they decide to deliver the killing blow, which would be to admit Ukraine into NATO.

There are probably a number of issues with my idea, but I think it would be fascinating to see it played out like that.

Don’t think there is a mechanism to evict a NATO member but with Biden in office all things are possible. Sweden and Finland are a separate kettle of fish altogether and won’t be allowed to fall into Putin’s clutches.
 

But I rather think a deal is in the works with General Miley being rather emphatic about it. Ukraine’s membership must be on the table and if not ought to be since it gave up its nuclear weapons so this very thing would never happen. Interestingly Serbia and even Iran are openly stating Ukraines territorial integrity so Russia is running outta friends and time if it wants a deal. But not Turkey. It’s still steadfast in its support so I expect Erdogan will lose the upcoming election, steal the vote under some pretext and they leave voluntarily after Biden sanctions them

Edited January 21, 2023 by Unusual Tournament

[Black Red Devil]

2 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

I just had a thought.

What if NATO admits Ukraine at “the last second”? Perhaps I’ll put my conspiracy theorist hat on for a second.

What if some deals have been made to evict Turkey from NATO and subsequently admit Finland, Sweden, and Ukraine into NATO (since Turkey seems to be the most problematic country within the organization), effective immediately? Obviously I haven’t worEXISTSked the kinks out (this is basically me throwing crap at the wall), but it would be an interesting turn of events if there exists some kind of a “collective” plan for NATO to weaken Russia by allowing them to do basically everything they’ve been doing, only to have their entire campaign nullified once they decide to deliver the killing blow, which would be to admit Ukraine into NATO.

There are probably a number of issues with my idea, but I think it would be fascinating to see it played out like that.

Until Russia exists in its current format as the essential anti-NATO/Western nemesis, Turkey will always have an important strategic role.  Apart from been able to basically close the Southern Russian fleet's access to the Mediterranean Sea, it also borders with Syria and Iran where it can theoretically launch it's NATO Airforce from its Bases straight into enemy territory.  In that sense Turkey is far more important to NATO than Ukraine.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Black Red Devil

[Occult1]

2 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

I just had a thought.

What if NATO admits Ukraine at “the last second”? Perhaps I’ll put my conspiracy theorist hat on for a second.

What if some deals have been made to evict Turkey from NATO and subsequently admit Finland, Sweden, and Ukraine into NATO (since Turkey seems to be the most problematic country within the organization), effective immediately? Obviously I haven’t worked the kinks out (this is basically me throwing crap at the wall), but it would be an interesting turn of events if there exists some kind of a “collective” plan for NATO to weaken Russia by allowing them to do basically everything they’ve been doing, only to have their entire campaign nullified once they decide to deliver the killing blow, which would be to admit Ukraine into NATO.

There are probably a number of issues with my idea, but I think it would be fascinating to see it played out like that.

There are obvious flaws with your theory.

 

1. NATO will not accept countries if they are at war or there are unresolved border disputes.

According to NATO’s 1995 Enlargement Study:

''States which have ethnic disputes or external territorial disputes, including irredentist claims, … must settle those disputes by peaceful means in accordance with OSCE principles. Resolution of such disputes would be a factor in determining whether to invite a state to join the Alliance.''

https://www.marshallcenter.org/en/publications/security-insights/nato-enlargement-approaching-standstill-0

In the case of Ukraine this principle takes on it's full meaning . NATO would basically need to get itself into a Third World War by attacking Russia if they decide to 'admit' Ukraine to 'invoke' Article 5.

 

2. Under the North Atlantic Treaty which established NATO, there are no provisions for suspending the rights of any member state, let alone expell them.

 

 

3. Turkey has the second largest standing military force in NATO, after the U.S.  They are a top contributor to NATO and have been a member for the last 70 years.

 

Turkey’s geopolitical position at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa also makes it membership worth a lot more to NATO's interests than Finland, Sweden and Ukraine combined.

 

They are also the only country who have access and control the Black Sea. They can literally shut down Black Sea straights for Russian warships. That's extremely valuable.

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Occult1

[Occult1]

4 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

Anyone can mediate, but what's the point?

I don't think so.

Erdogan is one of the few leaders who has managed to keep ties open with both Russia and Ukraine.

Russia will of course not accept a country as mediator that have imposed sanctions on them or sent weapons to Ukraine to destroy it's forces.

There isn't a lot of countries that have remained neutral and still have the credibility to mediate in such important negotiation. Israel might be another one but I don't think they'd be interested.

Saudi Arabia is also another one that has been mentioned on more than one occasion.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Occult1

[Black Red Devil]

40 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

I don't think so.

Erdogan is one of the few leaders who has managed to keep ties open with both Russia and Ukraine.

Russia will of course not accept a country as mediator that have imposed sanctions on them or sent weapons to Ukraine to destroy it's forces.

There isn't a lot of countries that have remained neutral and still have the credibility to mediate in such important negotiation. Israel might be another one but I don't think they'd be interested.

Saudi Arabia is also another one that has been mentioned on more than one occasion.

You're making a big hoorah out of mediation and negotiations.  I tried to explain it to you before but apparently it didn't catch on.  Any representative from the UN can mediate but the problem is no Party is seriously interested in negotiations. 

Why would Ukraine negotiate after the Russians committed war crimes and International Law?  Not unless Putin completely withdraws and submits to breaches of I'nal Law and war crimes, which he won't do. 

NATO and the US are committed to helping Ukraine and the defeat of Russia, so I don't see negotiations happening any time soon.

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Black Red Devil

[DarkHunter]

1 hour ago, Occult1 said:

Russia will of course not accept a country as mediator that have imposed sanctions on them or sent weapons to Ukraine to destroy it's forces.

Guess you are forgetting how Turkey has sent 30+ TB2 drones to Ukraine, along with the bombs and electronic warfare systems they use.  Turkey has also sent quite a few recon mini-TB2 drones.  There are also the 200 BMC Kirpi which are MRAP vehicles that Turkey has sent.  Lastly Turkey has sent Ukraine some number of TLRG-230 which are MLRS which fire a 230mm rocket 20 km to 70 km but more recent rocket designs have a laser guided variant that can fire up to 150 km with a CEP of 2 meters.

According to your own statement Russia shouldn't accept Turkey as a mediator either.

[pellinore]