Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?

[DarkHunter]

8 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

…just a general observation about this war concerning SAM use. The price of these missiles is astronomical. Upwards of half a million for an IRST-T to a million dollars for each missile. You can really do some financial damage to an adversaries budget by using a $20,000 loitering drone to tie up a million dollar  missile. Surely there has to be a cheaper way to destroy this threat in a cost effective manner

Very few if any of the heavy anti-air missiles are used to shoot down loitering munition, most loitering munition doesnt even fly high enough to be targeted by them.  The vast majority of loitering munitions are going to be shot down by manpads, anti-aircraft guns, or small arms fire.  

Recently Ukraine has came up with a new tactic to mostly neutralize the loitering munition threat for artillery by putting a loose net about 15 to 20 feet above the artillery.  Most of the loitering munitions used dont have a proximity fuse and require impacting the target to detonate and the net prevents the loitering munition from hitting a surface hard enough to cause a detonation.

[DarkHunter]

It seems in the coming days there will be an announcement from Germany on Leopard 2 tanks getting delivered to Ukraine.

Edited January 23, 2023 by DarkHunter

[Unusual Tournament]

31 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Very few if any of the heavy anti-air missiles are used to shoot down loitering munition, most loitering munition doesnt even fly high enough to be targeted by them.  The vast majority of loitering munitions are going to be shot down by manpads, anti-aircraft guns, or small arms fire.  

Recently Ukraine has came up with a new tactic to mostly neutralize the loitering munition threat for artillery by putting a loose net about 15 to 20 feet above the artillery.  Most of the loitering munitions used dont have a proximity fuse and require impacting the target to detonate and the net prevents the loitering munition from hitting a surface hard enough to cause a detonation.

…yeah I saw a picture of the net. Very practical. 

[DarkHunter]

14 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

I think I heard on the news today that Germany would approve of Poland sending Leopard tanks.  True or not true do you know?

Honestly everything from Germany has been a mess and nothing is clear.  The defense minister says that Germany wont stop other countries from sending Leopard 2 tanks, then Sholtz says they wont and being the Chancellor he can veto the defense minister.  

Everything is just a massive mess with Germany and tanks at the moment.  

[+Nuclear Wessel]

2 hours ago, Gunn said:

Now I can't believe you just posted this and shot yourself in the foot like this. Man are you serious? Hell in your first posts you were talking about how things were going to be terrible and horrible all this was going to be, and the world was going to burn because of - yes your favorite subject - NUKES! And In some other posts to paraphrase you 'Putin is insane, he's crazy, if he gets pushed to far, nukes, nukes, nukes,etc, and you kept going on and on about that. Hell, In one post you were talking about how you and your girlfriend were looking into getting MREs man! I'm looking at one of other posts right now, post #4636, were you were saying you weren't so nervous before, but now you are really nervous because of the higher threat of nukes, nukes,nukes. Come on man! It's not that big a deal. We were all a little nervous/having a little anxiety about it at first, and we got over it. Hell, after a while, I really got over it and knew he wasn't going to launch nukes.

You appear to have some fascination with proving me wrong, whenever you can - it is kind of strange.

Honestly, I have zero interest in explaining why your hyperbolic portrayal of me is not very accurate.

This thread is not about me nor about your incorrect perception of my "anxiety". 

[Grey Area]

47 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Honestly everything from Germany has been a mess and nothing is clear.  The defense minister says that Germany wont stop other countries from sending Leopard 2 tanks, then Sholtz says they wont and being the Chancellor he can veto the defense minister.  

Everything is just a massive mess with Germany and tanks at the moment.  

I don’t know too much about German politics or current affairs.

I had put the slowness in the German response early on down to the economic infrastructure Issues caused by cutting ties with Russia, and I had assumed the current issues around arms provision to Ukraine down to some form of residual post WW2 guilt.

I’d be interested to know what others here think.  One thing is certain, Germany is going to be losing a lot of its influence as a leading Western power.

[DarkHunter]

10 minutes ago, Grey Area said:

I don’t know too much about German politics or current affairs.

I had put the slowness in the German response early on down to the economic infrastructure Issues caused by cutting ties with Russia, and I had assumed the current issues around arms provision to Ukraine down to some form of residual post WW2 guilt.

I’d be interested to know what others here think.  One thing is certain, Germany is going to be losing a lot of its influence as a leading Western power.

WW2 guilt was one of the issues with one of the parties in the current ruling coalition, the issue with the Green party was cutting off Russian natural gas as they viewed it as essential to meeting CO2 reduction goals.  

The problem is the SPD, who Scholtz is a member of.  The SPD has a concerning amount of connections to the Russian government.  A significant amount of the SPD have been calling for Germany to forge better ties with Russia and break ties with America for well over a decade.  I remember reading a while ago how a lot of high ranking members in the SPD frequently get free trips to Moscow and St Petersburg from Russian companies/government.  

[+and-then]

6 hours ago, Myles said:

I'm 100% certain that you do not know that.  

I would say much of their Nuke arsenal was not maintained.

Probably accurate, but others here conveniently overlook the fact that Russia has invested in some brand-new nukes in the recent past.  The bottom line is that several here would cheerfully run the risk of being wrong and getting themselves and one whole hell of a lot of others DEAD, if it were up to them.  Awfully nice of them to volunteer millions beside themselves dying in a nuke holocaust.  It's insane and they have ZERO right to do it.  But hey, they're SURE Putin's a coward.  Nice, huh?

[Duke Wellington]

36 minutes ago, and-then said:

Probably accurate, but others here conveniently overlook the fact that Russia has invested in some brand-new nukes in the recent past.  The bottom line is that several here would cheerfully run the risk of being wrong and getting themselves and one whole hell of a lot of others DEAD, if it were up to them.  Awfully nice of them to volunteer millions beside themselves dying in a nuke holocaust.  It's insane and they have ZERO right to do it.  But hey, they're SURE Putin's a coward.  Nice, huh?

I think its funny how they think we are going to suicide ourselves to have a nuclear war with Russia.

The only countries getting nuked will be those that dont have nukes to nuke back. Bye bye Germany and Poland.

[Gunn]

2 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

You appear to have some fascination with proving me wrong, whenever you can - it is kind of strange.

Honestly, I have zero interest in explaining why your hyperbolic portrayal of me is not very accurate.

This thread is not about me nor about your incorrect perception of my "anxiety". 

Lol. Now you see, I was thinking the very same thing after you first quoted me after I quoted GR6's headline link on if Putin was going to launch nukes or not. And I said that was BS! That he wouldn't ever. But you kept on and on with me about it and believe he would launch nukes. Now you want to talk about strange (Mr. Black Kettle) that was strange. I mean you were effing relentless with me about it and you couldn't let my statement go without getting the last word in, but hey, now you know how I felt. Whatever man, deflect all you want, I just don't tolerate BS'ers like you.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Gunn

[DarkHunter]

1 hour ago, and-then said:

Probably accurate, but others here conveniently overlook the fact that Russia has invested in some brand-new nukes in the recent past.  The bottom line is that several here would cheerfully run the risk of being wrong and getting themselves and one whole hell of a lot of others DEAD, if it were up to them.  Awfully nice of them to volunteer millions beside themselves dying in a nuke holocaust.  It's insane and they have ZERO right to do it.  But hey, they're SURE Putin's a coward.  Nice, huh?

What's the alternative, let Russia take all of Ukraine or large sections of Ukraine because they threatened to use nuclear weapons.  Should the west just let Russia take what ever it wants allowing Russia to get stronger and push for more till eventually they end up in an actual war with NATO because Russia threatens to use nuclear weapons.  What will the odds be of a resurgent Russia facing military defeat by NATO resorting to nuclear weapons.

If Russia is successful to any degree in Ukraine that will cement the idea, not just in Russia but globally, that if a nation has nuclear weapons and is willing to threaten their use they can get whatever they want.  Besides from kick starting a global nuclear arms race that will guarantee future nuclear wars.

I highly doubt you will answer any of the questions.  It is rather obvious you have no understanding of Game Theory or Decision Theory but from a probabilistic view point the best chance of avoiding a nuclear war is stopping Russia in Ukraine now.

[+Nuclear Wessel]

1 hour ago, Gunn said:

Lol. Now you see, I was thinking the very same thing after you first quoted me after I quoted GR6's headline link on if Putin was going to launch nukes or not. And I said that was BS! That he wouldn't ever. But you kept on and on with me about it and believe he would launch nukes. Now you want to talk about strange (Mr. Black Kettle) that was strange. I mean you were effing relentless with me about it and you couldn't let my statement go without getting the last word in, but hey, now you know how I felt. Whatever man, deflect all you want, I just don't tolerate BS'ers like you.

I remember that exchange, and you didn't  just say that "he wouldn't, ever" - you implied that I was buying into Russian scaremongering, and then said "It's never gonna happen". My response was that you were entitled to your opinion on both counts:

1.) That I am somehow buying into the scaremongering
2.) That "it will never happen".

You then said I was wrong about a hypothetical scenario that neither one of us can be certain about, and even implied that I somehow harboured "hard feelings" towards you, at the time

I've known people just like you and still have them in my life (not by choice) - you like to "needle" and act condescending to get a rise out of them.

[Gunn]

27 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

I remember that exchange, and you didn't  just say that "he wouldn't, ever" - you implied that I was buying into Russian scaremongering, and then said "It's never gonna happen". My response was that you were entitled to your opinion on both counts:

1.) That I am somehow buying into the scaremongering
2.) That "it will never happen".

You then said I was wrong about a hypothetical scenario that neither one of us can be certain about, and even implied that I somehow harboured "hard feelings" towards you, at the time

I've known people just like you and still have them in my life (not by choice) - you like to "needle" and act condescending to get a rise out of them.

And I know people just like you, bullsh!tters, always trying to gaslight people, even over the smallest thing..

Anyway, I don't feel like wasting anymore time with your lying nonsense, just because you got insensitive to what I said about your anxiety over the nuke issue. So go ahead and get the last word in like I know you will.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Gunn

[+Nuclear Wessel]

9 hours ago, Helen of Annoy said:

 

 It will rain disassembled orcs in near future. More than usual, that is. 

Which means russia will need more cannon fodder. Which means they'll start the general mobilization. Which means Ukraine will need even more weapons, while russia needs tougher sanctions, confiscated property and a naval blockade too. 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Nuclear Wessel

[+Nuclear Wessel]

11 hours ago, Myles said:

I'm 100% certain that you do not know that.  

I would say much of their Nuke arsenal was not maintained.

Probably didn't bother maintaining their old(er/est?) nukes, but they still have an annual multi-billion dollar nuclear weapons program, so they absolutely do have something.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Nuclear Wessel

[+and-then]

5 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

I think its funny how they think we are going to suicide ourselves to have a nuclear war with Russia.

No, I don't think it's funny at all.  These folks seem perfectly genuine in their belief that Putin would NEVER use nukes.  That is a profoundly dangerous mindset and I think the DC minions are so c***-sure that they're willing to roll the dice.

[Duke Wellington]

2 hours ago, and-then said:

No, I don't think it's funny at all.  These folks seem perfectly genuine in their belief that Putin would NEVER use nukes.  That is a profoundly dangerous mindset and I think the DC minions are so c***-sure that they're willing to roll the dice.

Well it is profoundly dangerous.

The plan to grind down a nuclear power is very risky and of course China will be watching too concerned that it is next.

[jmccr8]

2 hours ago, and-then said:

No, I don't think it's funny at all.  These folks seem perfectly genuine in their belief that Putin would NEVER use nukes.  That is a profoundly dangerous mindset and I think the DC minions are so c***-sure that they're willing to roll the dice.

Hi And Then

Just thought I would point out that many members here are not American citizens nor are we DC minions. Yes all of us know there is a potential for a nuclear exchange which we do not disregard. All of our countries fought in both world wars to stop Hitler and have been involved in most current conflicts since.

If you want to forever live in fear of what one country threatens everyone with that is your problem. Maybe you should stick to your violence porn in your own country seeing as how you would be willing to kill your own citizens on your streets over political differences.

Russia started this and you as well as others have lived in fear of this type of conflict with them for decades and not is the time to act even if all it is is sending weapons. Why don’t we all agree to travel enmass to protest at Russian borders including the Ukraine. 10s of millions of people with flowers and singing might turn things around.

Most wouldn’t even consider to travel to do so because they are to scared to so send weapons so free people can continue to be independent.

[jmccr8]

3 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

Well it is profoundly dangerous.

The plan to grind down a nuclear power is very risky and of course China will be watching too concerned that it is next.

Hi Cookie

China doesn’t have to worry about it because they rely on trade, that is what is keeping them solvent right now. They are having problems of their own right now and understand that. Russia thought they had the cat by the tail because they HAD some contracts and a few dollars in their pocket. They are fkd now for decades to come as sanctions won’t be lifted and if the Ukraine falls because we pulled out Russia will get even more sanctions and isolation. Yes they might be able to sell stolen grain and bloated reserves of gas to some countries at pennies on the dollar but will live in poverty unable to afford their war machine or space exploration.

[Duke Wellington]

9 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Cookie

China doesn’t have to worry about it because they rely on trade, that is what is keeping them solvent right now. They are having problems of their own right now and understand that. Russia thought they had the cat by the tail because they HAD some contracts and a few dollars in their pocket. They are fkd now for decades to come as sanctions won’t be lifted and if the Ukraine falls because we pulled out Russia will get even more sanctions and isolation. Yes they might be able to sell stolen grain and bloated reserves of gas to some countries at pennies on the dollar but will live in poverty unable to afford their war machine or space exploration.

The aim is the US staying top dog.

That means removing Russia and China as competition, and holding down the Iranians and Franco-Prussians. But unlike the historical past, great powers these days have nukes. And there exists a danger like never before.

[jmccr8]

4 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

The aim is the US staying top dog.

That means removing Russia and China as competition, and holding down the Iranians and Franco-Prussians. But unlike the historical past, great powers these days have nukes. And there exists a danger like never before.

Hi Cookie

The only one threatening with Nukes is Russia because they put themselves in a bad spot by invading the Ukraine, It might have worked for them if they didn’t overestimate their capabilities and underestimate the resolve of the Ukrainians . When The Ukraine stalled the main attempt to take Kiev with what they had without any help from the west it was a game changer. Russians were abandoning fleets of armoured vehicles that were operational other than a bullet hole in gas tanks full of weapons they have the Ukraine weapons to fight back with so the west stepped in.

Russians have raped, beat, tortured and murdered civilians and continue to do so leaving a trail of mass graves everywhere they go. The west decided to step in and give weapons aid because the Russians are committing atrocities and other east European nations are worried rightly so that Russia would continue to conquer and absorb them as well in a bid to be the same poor and broken USSR they once were.

I think when the west pulled out of Afghanistan Putin thought the time was right to move as that would have been a launch point for rapid deployment and supply entry point. Before Afghanistan China, India and Pakistan were threatening each other with nukes all the time and once UN forces built bases there the threats stopped.

China has boomed because of the markets for international trade to a much greater degree than Russia did. Trade is the backbone of their financial system now so it is not the same situation as their dependency on us would be a financial detriment to them as we are their mainstay in a global financial system/economy.

Russia falling has a greater benefit to China,India and Pakistan for cheap oil not to mention reclaiming lost lands. Even in this conflict the west has said it would not use nukes if Russia did but would make a rapid and effective response. Russia knows the west has a ample supply of weapons that are not being given to the Ukraine that can be used if they deploy nukes that they cannot counteract against as they have depleted a lot of inventory already with no means of replenishing.

This was going to happen one day anyway, many have lived in fear of this for more than the last century and now it is on the doorstep. The west will not take action with boots on the ground unless Russia launches a nuke and they know it which is why they are sending the expendables in an effort to keep the west from sending troops and the big toys.

You have already made your escape and self preservation plans so not sure what your concern is as you have your ass covered so cling to that. I don’t want to see war either much like most of us here but there comes a time to stand up and be counted we just won’t count on you or the minority like you.

I know not everyone has what it takes to do what needs to be done and don’t hold that against them, I just won’t live with or in your fear that is yours.

 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by jmccr8

[Helen of Annoy]

Those afraid of nukes, don't be so afraid, your Lavrov is touring Africa, gathering a powerful coalition to oppose the West. No, seriously. 

It means that russians have great plans for their geopolitical future. Not consistent with the story in which they'd be deliberately suicidal. (What they're doing to themselves is a suicide, though, but they're stupid enough to not realize it.)

Also, finally, the proof that trumpers are not racists  Their alliance now encompasses russia, Hungary, Serbia, Venezuela, North Korea and a good chunk of Africa.  

[Helen of Annoy]

Leopards update: 

Poland officially requested the approval for sending their Leos to Ukraine, but Poland also repeats few times a day that they are sending these tanks no matter who says or signs what. 

Scholz will need up to two weeks to force himself to sign the release. 

Stoltenberg said that the countries willing to send their Leopards to Ukraine may calmly start the training of Ukrainian crews. (It means that Scholz's theatre with delaying the sign is his own childishly spiteful thing but he can't actually stop the delivery of Leos.) 

 

So the Leopards are coming.

 

edit to self-censor my expression of excessive happiness. 

Edited January 24, 2023 by Helen of Annoy

[pellinore]

17 hours ago, Grey Area said:

I don’t know too much about German politics or current affairs.

I had put the slowness in the German response early on down to the economic infrastructure Issues caused by cutting ties with Russia, and I had assumed the current issues around arms provision to Ukraine down to some form of residual post WW2 guilt.

I’d be interested to know what others here think.  One thing is certain, Germany is going to be losing a lot of its influence as a leading Western power.

I thought it was due to gas and WW2, too. I am getting some info that there is something less obvious to outsiders going on now.

[Helen of Annoy]

3 minutes ago, pellinore said:

I thought it was due to gas and WW2, too. I am getting some info that there is something less obvious to outsiders going on now.

Gas, WWII, peacenik stupidity, god damned Realpolitik in its worst form, possibly kompromat and who knows what else. 

 

A bit long thread here, but it sums up the entire history that lead to this current mess: