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Russia Masses Military Equipment Near Ukraine Borders: A Prologue to WWIII?


Grim Reaper 6
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3 minutes ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

It's obvious that Alexa is watching too many end of the world youtube videos. :yes:

Its creepy though!!!

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18 minutes ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Putin has no intention of giving up the south of the country. It all has to do with the Black Sea oil and gas.

If Ukraine would of ever had the chance to develop these resources then they literally could replace Russia as the supplier of gas and oil to Europe. 

https://euromaidanpress.com/2018/10/10/black-sea-gas-deposits-an-overlooked-reason-for-russias-occupation-of-crimea/

I'm quoting my own post to add something here.

If Putin keeps the Black Sea deposits then they could rekindle the Israeli pipeline to Europe to keep Russia from putting a stranglehold on Europe.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/energy/chevron-ceo-says-israel-pipeline-could-supply-europe-with-natural-gas-amid-crisis

Kinda interesting but could this be the hook in the mouth of Ezekiel 38 to draw them out of the north country?

 

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29 minutes ago, CrimsonKing said:

 

Serious question,read a few pages back you were a soldier once...do you think Russia's military is capable of taking and actually holding anything?

Without the shadow of a doubt. As I've mentioned before, the conduct of this war is for the most part being looked at in an extremely simplistic way. I read all over the place that it was the plan to take  Kiev in 3 to 4 days, and as this has not happened, it's failure. For a start nobody except the Russians know what their plan is and what timeline they have for achieving various objectives, therefore cries of "failure" are utter nonsense. It took the Germans two months just to advance halfway across Ukraine in 1941, that's from the border with Poland to the Dneper, and that was just the central axis of advance as they left large parts of territory untouched until later. Taking and holding any of the large cities along the borders of Belarus and Russia is not needed at this time, only the ones in more strategic locations, Kherson, Nikolaev and Krivy Rog, and there are others. Kherson has been taken and being held. A localized counter attack was made by the Ukrainians towards Kherson earlier, and we know they hit the airport a few days ago with smerch, but the couter attack failed, as did an excursion towards Russian forces north of Nikolaev, which is surrounded on all it's land sides, with the river Bug to it's west. So yes, the Russians can take and hold cities. Nikolaev will be taken at some point, and the Russians are already advancing northeast to Krivy Rog. Mariupol will fall within the next week, and that will be held, likewise Izium to the north of Lugansk.

What we have for the most part is a battle of the frontiers, and it's really very unlike any other war where you may have to advance some way, and fight at least one major battle, before coming up against the enemies major cities. Here the major cities are on the border, so no great charges across the country, except in the south where the terrain and position of the cities does allow this, particularly on a south to north axis due to the major rivers running north to south.

What folks should remember is Iraq in 2003 and how long it took to get to Baghdad, three weeks or a bit longer I think, and against an enemy with no airforce, no survaillance satellites, far less capable equipment than ours, highly degraded communications, and ground suitable for fast moving armoured warfare, and they had been bombarded again and again and again. In 1991 that bombardment went on for four weeks before ground operations, the Russians went over the border with zero preparation against an enemy with mostly the same equipment, and heavily augmented with Nato arms, and with use of US satellites and all manner of electronic warfare stuff, and at least a rudimentary airforce. How long should it have taken the Russians to defeat Ukraine? That's rhetorical as we have no idea what the plan is and if it is on schedule or not, personally I think it looks like things are not going badly, of course there are stubborn areas such as Mariupol, but that contains a major force, and that Ukraine cannot relieve it means they are in difficulty. If they cannot retake Kherson, and then loose Nikolaev and Krivy Rog, let alone Izium which is just about gone, they are in deep deep doodoo.

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3 minutes ago, Wepwawet said:

Without the shadow of a doubt. As I've mentioned before, the conduct of this war is for the most part being looked at in an extremely simplistic way. I read all over the place that it was the plan to take  Kiev in 3 to 4 days, and as this has not happened, it's failure. For a start nobody except the Russians know what their plan is and what timeline they have for achieving various objectives, therefore cries of "failure" are utter nonsense. It took the Germans two months just to advance halfway across Ukraine in 1941, that's from the border with Poland to the Dneper, and that was just the central axis of advance as they left large parts of territory untouched until later. Taking and holding any of the large cities along the borders of Belarus and Russia is not needed at this time, only the ones in more strategic locations, Kherson, Nikolaev and Krivy Rog, and there are others. Kherson has been taken and being held. A localized counter attack was made by the Ukrainians towards Kherson earlier, and we know they hit the airport a few days ago with smerch, but the couter attack failed, as did an excursion towards Russian forces north of Nikolaev, which is surrounded on all it's land sides, with the river Bug to it's west. So yes, the Russians can take and hold cities. Nikolaev will be taken at some point, and the Russians are already advancing northeast to Krivy Rog. Mariupol will fall within the next week, and that will be held, likewise Izium to the north of Lugansk.

What we have for the most part is a battle of the frontiers, and it's really very unlike any other war where you may have to advance some way, and fight at least one major battle, before coming up against the enemies major cities. Here the major cities are on the border, so no great charges across the country, except in the south where the terrain and position of the cities does allow this, particularly on a south to north axis due to the major rivers running north to south.

What folks should remember is Iraq in 2003 and how long it took to get to Baghdad, three weeks or a bit longer I think, and against an enemy with no airforce, no survaillance satellites, far less capable equipment than ours, highly degraded communications, and ground suitable for fast moving armoured warfare, and they had been bombarded again and again and again. In 1991 that bombardment went on for four weeks before ground operations, the Russians went over the border with zero preparation against an enemy with mostly the same equipment, and heavily augmented with Nato arms, and with use of US satellites and all manner of electronic warfare stuff, and at least a rudimentary airforce. How long should it have taken the Russians to defeat Ukraine? That's rhetorical as we have no idea what the plan is and if it is on schedule or not, personally I think it looks like things are not going badly, of course there are stubborn areas such as Mariupol, but that contains a major force, and that Ukraine cannot relieve it means they are in difficulty. If they cannot retake Kherson, and then loose Nikolaev and Krivy Rog, let alone Izium which is just about gone, they are in deep deep doodoo.

Thanks again for your take on matters.

I've just had a strange feeling we aren't seeing something in all this...with reports of Russian loses,inept strategy,and almost Gomer Pyle like troop actions lol...it almost feels as if these first waves of troops weren't really troops at all.Maybe mad Vlad emptied out his prisons with promises of freedom for fighting for Mother Russia.

Again that's just a thought with zero to back it,but something is very strange about alot of this...

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50 minutes ago, Buzz_Light_Year said:

Putin has no intention of giving up the south of the country. It all has to do with the Black Sea oil and gas.

If Ukraine would of ever had the chance to develop these resources then they literally could replace Russia as the supplier of gas and oil to Europe. 

https://euromaidanpress.com/2018/10/10/black-sea-gas-deposits-an-overlooked-reason-for-russias-occupation-of-crimea/

I think you're absolutely right, I think he made the calculation right from the start that no matter his words in public, Ukraine is to be dismantled and reduced to a rump state based around Galicia, probably with Lvov as it's capital. It has no great natural resources or industry, and would be a constant hotbed of insurgency for the Russians if they tried to hold Galicia. The Soviets had the same problem even after the war when the Ukrainian nationalist forces continued fighting the Soviets into the early 1950s. Then they had zero hope of outside help, so gave up or got to the west, but this time around they would get a lot of support, unless the Russians sealed the entire border around Galicia, and I'm not sure they would want the hassle.

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1 minute ago, CrimsonKing said:

Thanks again for your take on matters.

I've just had a strange feeling we aren't seeing something in all this...with reports of Russian loses,inept strategy,and almost Gomer Pyle like troop actions lol...it almost feels as if these first waves of troops weren't really troops at all.Maybe mad Vlad emptied out his prisons with promises of freedom for fighting for Mother Russia.

Again that's just a thought with zero to back it,but something is very strange about alot of this...

I know what you mean, but what we are seeing is the consequence of this war essentially being reported on from the Ukrainian side as Russia has prohibited any mention of their losses, or of much of what they are doing. There is a huge fight at Mariupol and along the line of contact in the Donbass, but how much do we see, hardly anything. I saw a video yesterday of a Russian tank being taken out, filmed by a Ukrainian quadcopter, but the Russians show almost nothing of their own advances, so it looks, at a very superficial level, that they are loosing. Take the area north of Lugansk which has seen a lot of hard fighting, but all you see is the Russian flag raised over a town's administrative building, and none of the actual fighting, not even all that much of captured or destroyed equipment, so it all looks a bit vague. I think this is the wrong approach, except for not broadcasting your own casualty figures which is a no no for any army in any war. The Russians have I think unwittingly given the impression that they are stuck and not achieving much, then combine that with an unrealistic view that there should be some blitzkrieg going on, and hey presto, the Russians are loosing. When the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass are all surrounded, things will look a bit different. It's noy unusual to have a bit of a wobble, or a seeming one, at the start of a war, for instance for Britain in WWI there was the "Great Retreat" in 1914, or even for Wellington at Waterloo there was a wobble before the Prussians turned up, and doomsayers were running off to the channel ports crying that all was lost. Turned out fine in both cases.

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@OverSword

Took longer for the daily update to be posted.

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-22-summary/

There are more zoomed in maps of each front, daily summary, plus the entire Ukraine map.

day_22_fullmap-1024x724.thumb.png.9654c6bb2ce40d23bcfa60723fc1f485.png

Basically nothing much has changed, Russians havent really advanced on any of the fronts.  Ukraine did a successful counter attack towards Kherson liberating a town midway from their position and Russian held Kherson.  In Mariupol intense street fighting with house to house combat is going on.  Not much media making it out so hard to determine what's actually happening.  Ukranian defenders in Mariupol said they are preparing for a ad-blocking action so in the coming days it seems they are going to try and break the siege.

According to the UK MoD the Russians seem unwilling ir unable to leave the major roads and do cross country operations.  Russia is having extensive difficulty supplying Russian troops at the front as supply lines get longer.  Lastly Ukranian attacks on supply convoys is forcing Russia to dedicate an increasing amount of troops to convoy defense and securing territory which is seriously harming the offensive ability of the Russian military.

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8 minutes ago, Wepwawet said:

I know what you mean, but what we are seeing is the consequence of this war essentially being reported on from the Ukrainian side as Russia has prohibited any mention of their losses, or of much of what they are doing. There is a huge fight at Mariupol and along the line of contact in the Donbass, but how much do we see, hardly anything. I saw a video yesterday of a Russian tank being taken out, filmed by a Ukrainian quadcopter, but the Russians show almost nothing of their own advances, so it looks, at a very superficial level, that they are loosing. Take the area north of Lugansk which has seen a lot of hard fighting, but all you see is the Russian flag raised over a town's administrative building, and none of the actual fighting, not even all that much of captured or destroyed equipment, so it all looks a bit vague. I think this is the wrong approach, except for not broadcasting your own casualty figures which is a no no for any army in any war. The Russians have I think unwittingly given the impression that they are stuck and not achieving much, then combine that with an unrealistic view that there should be some blitzkrieg going on, and hey presto, the Russians are loosing. When the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass are all surrounded, things will look a bit different. It's noy unusual to have a bit of a wobble, or a seeming one, at the start of a war, for instance for Britain in WWI there was the "Great Retreat" in 1914, or even for Wellington at Waterloo there was a wobble before the Prussians turned up, and doomsayers were running off to the channel ports crying that all was lost. Turned out fine in both cases.

Very well said :tu:

I really don't like this "follow the official stated lines or you are an enemy  propagandist!"

That is how fascism and dictatorships start...

I want the truth,not either sides version of the "truth"...the real deal.

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1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

@OverSword

Took longer for the daily update to be posted.

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-22-summary/

There are more zoomed in maps of each front, daily summary, plus the entire Ukraine map.

day_22_fullmap-1024x724.thumb.png.9654c6bb2ce40d23bcfa60723fc1f485.png

Basically nothing much has changed, Russians havent really advanced on any of the fronts.  Ukraine did a successful counter attack towards Kherson liberating a town midway from their position and Russian held Kherson.  In Mariupol intense street fighting with house to house combat is going on.  Not much media making it out so hard to determine what's actually happening.  Ukranian defenders in Mariupol said they are preparing for a ad-blocking action so in the coming days it seems they are going to try and break the siege.

According to the UK MoD the Russians seem unwilling ir unable to leave the major roads and do cross country operations.  Russia is having extensive difficulty supplying Russian troops at the front as supply lines get longer.  Lastly Ukranian attacks on supply convoys is forcing Russia to dedicate an increasing amount of troops to convoy defense and securing territory which is seriously harming the offensive ability of the Russian military.

Any updates on that large convoy that was a few miles out from Kyiv?...last I heard it dispersed some and went into the woods.

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Putin warns traitors. Good article to read.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/17/europe/putin-speech-russia-ukraine-conflict-intl-cmd/index.html

Now, an apparent pause in the advancement of Russian troops has the West guessing: Has Russia's war effort stalled? Or is it a tactical regrouping?
Either way, an incendiary Stalinesque speech on Wednesday night in which Putin called Russians opposing the war "traitors" marked a change in tone and a sign that not all is going to plan, experts said. Perhaps more worrying, many observers saw it as a sign that the head of the Russian state, facing setback in Ukraine, would take a vengeful turn at home and crack down more forcefully than ever on any sign of dissent.
While some Russians support the war, many others are protesting against it in the streets, fully aware they will be rounded up by heavily armed police even for the most peaceful of demonstrations. The Russian state has made mass protests illegal, and now, insulting the military is against the law. Still, people show up in groups, while others demonstrate entirely alone. Even lone protesters have been detained, social media videos have shown.
 
 
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15 minutes ago, susieice said:

Putin warns traitors. Good article to read.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/17/europe/putin-speech-russia-ukraine-conflict-intl-cmd/index.html

Now, an apparent pause in the advancement of Russian troops has the West guessing: Has Russia's war effort stalled? Or is it a tactical regrouping?
Either way, an incendiary Stalinesque speech on Wednesday night in which Putin called Russians opposing the war "traitors" marked a change in tone and a sign that not all is going to plan, experts said. Perhaps more worrying, many observers saw it as a sign that the head of the Russian state, facing setback in Ukraine, would take a vengeful turn at home and crack down more forcefully than ever on any sign of dissent.
While some Russians support the war, many others are protesting against it in the streets, fully aware they will be rounded up by heavily armed police even for the most peaceful of demonstrations. The Russian state has made mass protests illegal, and now, insulting the military is against the law. Still, people show up in groups, while others demonstrate entirely alone. Even lone protesters have been detained, social media videos have shown.
 
 

Doesn't sound good for freedom and human rights over there...

Then again when we have people in high places here and Hollywood stars calling for anyone who doesn't tow the official lines here traitorous and "something needs to be done with these people",things aren't looking so great either.

Remember the great Commie hunt of the 1950's?

Mitt Romney calling Tulsey Gabbard a traitor is one of the most cartoonish things I've seen in my life lol

Edited by CrimsonKing
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Russia-Ukraine latest news: Fears Moscow planning a lightning advance to claim victory

''Military experts have warned that Russia is planning a lightning advance upwards from southern Ukraine to link with other battalions to encircle Volodymyr Zelensky’s army and claim it has won the war.

[...]

Despite mounting carnage, punishing international sanctions and strong resistance from Ukrainians, top US diplomat Antony Blinken said he saw no sign that Russian leader Vladimir Putin "is prepared to stop".

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/18/ukraine-news-russia-war-live-putin-zelensky-kyiv-latest/

Looks like Russia is not done yet.

Edited by Occult1
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27 minutes ago, CrimsonKing said:

Any updates on that large convoy that was a few miles out from Kyiv?...last I heard it dispersed some and went into the woods.

Still dispersed along the same road, no real significant movement.  It seems from satelite images that the Russians are moving their artillery towards the front of the convoy but that's about it for movement.

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7 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Looks like Russia is not done yet.

Of course they aren't.  The proof is the cities that aren't yet pummeled to rubble.  That fine, powerful army you seem to support, has a lot of indiscriminate killing left to do.

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Kind of wild and kind of heart wrenching seeing the national pride Ukrainians hold for their country compared to watching how Americans react to terrible situations...

2 of my favorite boxers to watch fight are Ukrainian world class,world champion, multimillionaire's who went back home on their own accord to help fight for their country...Usyk and Loma are 2 true bad asses!

Eta sorry tried to add a link,but got a new phone and evidently have some s*** to reconfigure :lol:

Edited by CrimsonKing
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Stuff is very fluid and nothing confirmed but as of a couple minutes ago there are reports of the sound of battle being heard just west of Kherson.  

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I'm wondering how Coil is doing. He hasn't been in the thread for a while now and I hope he's ok. He said he lived north of Kherson iirc.

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11 hours ago, susieice said:

 

While some Russians support the war, many others are protesting against it in the streets, fully aware they will be rounded up by heavily armed police even for the most peaceful of demonstrations. The Russian state has made mass protests illegal, and now, insulting the military is against the law. Still, people show up in groups, while others demonstrate entirely alone. Even lone protesters have been detained, social media videos have shown.
 
 

We have no way of knowing percentages of Russians who support or not support the war.     Protests usually don't indicate the majority feels a certain way.  

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10 hours ago, CrimsonKing said:

Kind of wild and kind of heart wrenching seeing the national pride Ukrainians hold for their country compared to watching how Americans react to terrible situations...

2 of my favorite boxers to watch fight are Ukrainian world class,world champion, multimillionaire's who went back home on their own accord to help fight for their country...Usyk and Loma are 2 true bad asses!

Eta sorry tried to add a link,but got a new phone and evidently have some s*** to reconfigure :lol:

Earlier in the thread I mentioned that I feel like the more comfortable people are the less they understand the desire to fight for your freedom and people's right to choose their leaders. People in first world nations get seperated from the sacrifices that had to happen to get here. While even the rich Ukrainians probably remember what once was.

Not that I have room to talk. I'm pretty comfy here in my first world suburb. Lol

Edited by spartan max2
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20 minutes ago, Myles said:

We have no way of knowing percentages of Russians who support or not support the war.     Protests usually don't indicate the majority feels a certain way.  

Hi Myles

In countries that restrict people from expressing how they feel having protesters is a strong statement given consequence so I would be hard pressed to assert that the majority feel this way or that. The Russian people are being lied to about what is going on and at least there are people in Russia showing that they don't support Putin.

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Officials saying 80% of homes destroyed in Mariupol..

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/officials-say-80-of-homes-destroyed-in-mariupol/

 

Where are the Russian trolls to explain to me how this is a good thing?

Edited by spartan max2
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1 hour ago, Myles said:

We have no way of knowing percentages of Russians who support or not support the war.     Protests usually don't indicate the majority feels a certain way.  

True, but we do know the percentage who are Putin supporters.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/223382/russians-happier-putin-country-direction.aspx
 

Generally, he has huge support, which means that people believe and trust in him. If they believe and trust in him, then it’s a very likely that they’ll eat up all of the war propaganda and his speeches.

I’d feel confident claiming that the vast majority of Russians support the war. We’ll see how they feel when North Korea looks prosperous by comparison.

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10 hours ago, susieice said:

I'm wondering how Coil is doing. He hasn't been in the thread for a while now and I hope he's ok. He said he lived north of Kherson iirc.

Thats a really good question. As far as I can see he haven't posted for two weeks. :(

@Coil are you ok ?

 

Edited by Noteverythingisaconspiracy
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2 hours ago, Myles said:

We have no way of knowing percentages of Russians who support or not support the war.     Protests usually don't indicate the majority feels a certain way.  

I’ll also add that a number of polls actually put Russian support for the war at between 60%-70%. Pretty much in line with my assessment.

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Ukraine war: Russia destroys aircraft repair plant near western city of Lviv

Russian missiles have hit an aircraft repair plant near Lviv in western Ukraine, a city that has become a safe haven for people fleeing the war.

Emergency vehicles raced to the site of the strike, just 6km (four miles) from the city centre, after three loud explosions were heard early on Friday.

[...]

"There have been air raid alarms here every morning, but now the strikes are actually landing," Valentin Vovchenko, 82, told the AFP news agency from Lviv. "We fled Kyiv because of the attacks but now they've started to hit here."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60791471

There are reports that the Ukrainian air capabilities have been totally degraded beyond repair.

Edited by Occult1
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