Alien civilizations could be doomed to stagnate or collapse

[XenoFish]

What if we are the most advanced aliens? 

[Trelane]

9 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

Also IT DOES MATTER what technology is like.  Give Napoleon a few M249 automatic machine guns and there would have been no Waterloo.

I don't want to derail the thread but the line about Napoleon winning at Waterloo if he simply added some SAWs is off the mark. 

[Duke Wellington]

This might sound out of this world but we assume the highest life can achieve is civilization.

Low evolved life > Lift that create civilization (expanded out from country, to planet, to system, to galactic civilization) > *&%$ ..... what if there is something higher than civilization!!!

[Hyperionxvii]

Not sure when science went from being about doing research, gathering facts, and making hypothesis based on results of experiments, to pure conjecture. But seems we are there now. If I make the statement, all past advanced alien civilzations might have been chickens, that's just as relevant

Edited May 15, 2022 by Hyperionxvii

[Hyperionxvii]

1 hour ago, Cookie Monster said:

This might sound out of this world but we assume the highest life can achieve is civilization.

Low evolved life > Lift that create civilization (expanded out from country, to planet, to system, to galactic civilization) > *&%$ ..... what if there is something higher than civilization!!!

Not known. Because the highest point civilization can advance to is getting to the point where we start needless wars all over the planet and throw people into cages for possession of a plant. 

[astrobeing]

On 5/14/2022 at 4:52 PM, Manwon Lender said:

I don’t believe these events or conditions are extremely unlikely and neither do biologists and astrobiologists do to the vast size of our Universe. As far as probabilities are concerned there's one thing we can be sure of in this entire series of unlikely events, that occurred  one after the other, nothing that occurred at any point had an infinitesimal likelihood. Instead, every single event, including the creation of life here on Earth does not have a infinitesimal likelihood of occurring over and over again according to Bayes' theorem, across our Universe according to mathematical probabilities.

That's not true. You're ignoring that the likelihood of a series of events is the product of their likelihoods. When you work with series of probabilities in the real world, you quickly find yourself working with very very large numbers showing nearly impossible likelihoods. That explains why most things that have happened will never happen again and why most possible things will never happen. These probabilities make the universe quite small.

You really really need to read that paper you linked to, and I mean from beginning to end. It showed how scientists have struggled to create the basic products needed for life in ideal laboratory conditions. In some cases they flat out admit that the series of steps they've come up with are unrealistic for early Earth. A good example is the comment about how they produced nucleotides:

Quote

Note that individual steps of the nucleotide synthesis outlined above have been performed under mutually different experimental conditions... It is unclear whether or not these problems could be overcome by environmental fluctuations on the primitive Earth; such as purification and concentration of the nucleotide components, mixing the components with condensing agents at the right time and place, and exposing the mixtures to the optimum conditions to form nucleotides.

So here they can't even come up with a reasonable explanation as to how nucleotides appeared on Earth yet I'm supposed to think that this stuff happens all the time in the universe? I mean even the paper throws its hands up in the air in the conclusion!

Quote

What geological processes could offer environments that meet all of the requirements? Were such processes occurring on the Hadean Earth? If so, are the occurrences ubiquitous phenomena or rare on other planets in the universe? These questions need to be tackled by future theoretical and experimental investigations.

Thank you for posting that link.

[Grim Reaper 6]

13 minutes ago, astrobeing said:

That's not true. You're ignoring that the likelihood of a series of events is the product of their likelihoods. When you work with series of probabilities in the real world, you quickly find yourself working with very very large numbers showing nearly impossible likelihoods. That explains why most things that have happened will never happen again and why most possible things will never happen. These probabilities make the universe quite small.

Then please post some links to information that supports your comments from peer reviewed scientific journals Iam will to learn!

13 minutes ago, astrobeing said:

You really really need to read that paper you linked to, and I mean from beginning to end. It showed how scientists have struggled to create the basic products needed for life in ideal laboratory conditions. In some cases they flat out admit that the series of steps they've come up with are unrealistic for early Earth. A good example is the comment about how they produced nucleotides:

I have read the paper and I undesratnd the math.

13 minutes ago, astrobeing said:

So here they can't even come up with a reasonable explanation as to how nucleotides appeared on Earth yet I'm supposed to think that this stuff happens all the time in the universe? I mean even the paper throws its hands up in the air in the conclusion!

Thank you for posting that link.

Here is a better paper that discusses theoretically how the first nucleotides first appeared on Earth, and mentions the Pamsperima theory which I certainly endorse.

Supporting this hypothesis, model prebiotic reactions and analyses of carbonaceous meteorites provide evidence that the canonical nucleobases of RNA (adenine, guanine, cytosine, uracil) were likely present on the prebiotic Earth

Spontaneous formation and base pairing of plausible prebiotic nucleotides in water:Spontaneous formation and base pairing of plausible prebiotic nucleotides in water | Nature Communications 

[Golden Duck]

6 hours ago, Hyperionxvii said:

Not sure when science went from being about doing research, gathering facts, and making hypothesis based on results of experiments, to pure conjecture. But seems we are there now. If I make the statement, all past advanced alien civilzations might have been chickens, that's just as relevant

That's what is actually in OP.

Transitioning from one tier in the Kardashev scale to the next is the the type of innovation that would reset the superlineal demand for resources.

[astrobeing]

17 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

Then please post some links to information that supports your comments from peer reviewed scientific journals Iam will to learn!

This is basic stuff you learn in statistics classes at a university, not in scientific journals.

17 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

Here is a better paper that discusses theoretically how the first nucleotides first appeared on Earth, and mentions the Pamsperima theory which I certainly endorse.

Supporting this hypothesis, model prebiotic reactions and analyses of carbonaceous meteorites provide evidence that the canonical nucleobases of RNA (adenine, guanine, cytosine, uracil) were likely present on the prebiotic Earth

Spontaneous formation and base pairing of plausible prebiotic nucleotides in water:Spontaneous formation and base pairing of plausible prebiotic nucleotides in water | Nature Communications 

OK, that gives a possible explanation for nucleotides: those meteorites just happened to have the building blocks of RNA... somehow! How did the meteorites just happen to have them? Hey, not our problem so don't bother asking! Also there is still debate on whether contamination from Earth put those nucleobases in the meteorites since they are present in soil.

What about the dozen or so other compounds in the paper that require long series of fortuitous and contradictory conditions? More meteorites again?

If you think these papers are convincing me that stuff like this happens all the time in the universe then you're wrong. They show that life required a very very long list of unlikely conditions, reactions, and events to happen in perfect order.

Edited May 16, 2022 by astrobeing

[Grim Reaper 6]

6 minutes ago, astrobeing said:

This is basic stuff you learn in statistics classes at a university, not in scientific journals.

OK, that gives a possible explanation for nucleotides: those meteorites just happened to have the building blocks of RNA... somehow! How did the meteorites just happen to have them? Hey, not our problem so don't bother asking!

What about the dozen or so other compounds in the paper that require long series of fortuitous and contradictory conditions? More meteorites again?

If you think these papers are convincing me that stuff like this happens all the time in the universe then you're wrong. They show that life required a very very long list of unlikely conditions, reactions, and events to happen in perfect order.

I must honestly ask you, what level of schooling do you have and what do you do for a living?

This should be an easy question for you to answer! 

Edited May 16, 2022 by Manwon Lender

[astrobeing]

1 minute ago, Manwon Lender said:

I must honestly ask you, what level of schooling do you have and what do you do for a living?

I must honestly tell you that's personal and none of your business.

[Grim Reaper 6]

1 minute ago, astrobeing said:

I must honestly tell you that's personal and none of your business.

Yes that’s what I expected you to say so please carry on,  this conversation is going no where because simply put your unable to back up your comments which is fine. However I will not be involved in any discussion based upon opinion it’s like peeling in the wind. But personally  I disagree, I did not ask where you worked or even the University you attended I was willing to take your word at face value! 

Be well. 
 

[astrobeing]

20 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

Yes that’s what I expected you to say so please carry on,  this conversation is going no where because simply put your unable to back up your comments which is fine.

Actually I've been quoting from the papers that you've been linking too and I'm beginning to question whether or not you understand anything in these papers. Your inappropriate desire to question my personal credentials and educational history supports that.

21 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

But personally  I disagree, I did not ask where you worked or even the University you attended I was willing to take your word at face value! 

I have a unusual master's degree in a very specific skill and unfortunately I've discovered that has made it not difficult to figure out who I am with a few Internet searches. About fifteen years ago a lunatic on another board figured out who I was and where I worked. He not only harassed me with constant phone calls and emails at work and at home but then began harassing my boss and some of my coworkers.

So forgive me for not wanting to go through that nightmare again, Mr. "Manwon Leader".

[Black Red Devil]

On 5/17/2022 at 5:25 AM, astrobeing said:

This is basic stuff you learn in statistics classes at a university, not in scientific journals.

OK, that gives a possible explanation for nucleotides: those meteorites just happened to have the building blocks of RNA... somehow! How did the meteorites just happen to have them? Hey, not our problem so don't bother asking! Also there is still debate on whether contamination from Earth put those nucleobases in the meteorites since they are present in soil.

What about the dozen or so other compounds in the paper that require long series of fortuitous and contradictory conditions? More meteorites again?

If you think these papers are convincing me that stuff like this happens all the time in the universe then you're wrong. They show that life required a very very long list of unlikely conditions, reactions, and events to happen in perfect order.

How about the CHNOPS elements that make up 97% of the building blocks of life on Earth?  Astronomers have discovered over 150,000 stars in the Milky Way with the spectographic analysis method where they found all these 6 elements were contained. 

Obviously this still doesn't guarantee life on adjacent planets but if you consider the staggering number of galaxies in the universe each of which contains millions upon millions of stars each and millions upon millions of planets each it's easier to believe life is abundant even if it takes events to happen in a perfect order.

[itsnotoutthere]

If each star was relative in size to a grain of sand, our next nearest star would be approximately 6 miles away. That is why we'll never be visited by aliens (assuming they exist).

[Grim Reaper 6]

On 5/17/2022 at 4:32 AM, Manwon Lender said:

I must honestly ask you, what level of schooling do you have and what do you do for a living?

This should be an easy question for you to answer! 

@Golden Duck, man you have been following me around a lot lately can’t decide if your a Fan Boy or a stalker, but in reality there is no difference anyway!

[Golden Duck]

3 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

@Golden Duck, man you have been following me around a lot lately can’t decide if your a Fan Boy or a stalker, but in reality there is no difference anyway!

OK

[+joc]

On 5/20/2022 at 9:52 AM, itsnotoutthere said:

If each star was relative in size to a grain of sand, our next nearest star would be approximately 6 miles away. That is why we'll never be visited by aliens (assuming they exist).

And...

...imagine yourself in a Bubble in the middle of a Sahara Sand Storm...   Freeze frame the sand storm...   Open the little window and with a pair of tweezers pick out a single grain of sand.

...that single grain of sand...is relative to One Galaxy.   One galaxy containing billions of stars  surrounded by trillions of other galaxies...

Now consider...

Why exactly are  you all in such a damn hurry to get where ever you are going, only to be in a hurry to get somewhere else...

...if the ultimate destination is death...why be in such a hurry to get there?

[Grim Reaper 6]

1 hour ago, Golden Duck said:

OK

[Golden Duck]

51 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

This site sends notifications of your personal vendetta.  The screen shot is evidence of that.  You even acted confused to a post referring to the superlineal growth mentioned in the OP.

Calling me a stalker is hypocritical projection from a bruised ego, that couldn't back up their accusations that I called them names.

It's an unexplained mystery how you parade your duplicitous standards and somehow rationalise them to yourself.

 

[Duke Wellington]

On 5/16/2022 at 2:40 AM, Manwon Lender said:

Then please post some links to information that supports your comments from peer reviewed scientific journals I am willing to learn!

I have read the paper and I understand the math.

Here is a better paper that discusses theoretically how the first nucleotides first appeared on Earth, and mentions the Panspermia theory which I certainly endorse.

Supporting this hypothesis, model prebiotic reactions and analyses of carbonaceous meteorites provide evidence that the canonical nucleobases of RNA (adenine, guanine, cytosine, uracil) were likely present on the prebiotic Earth

Spontaneous formation and base pairing of plausible prebiotic nucleotides in water: Spontaneous formation and base pairing of plausible prebiotic nucleotides in water | Nature Communications 

The current position in science is its not known how life started or how common it is off Earth.

We may be the only civilization in the universe, there might be a few, there might be trillions, we do not know. The best analogy I have heard is landing on Mars and finding a perfect working clock. Then trying to figure out how it could have possibly come together by random chance.

The universe may be weird too, it might be created by us through primacy of mind.

P.S. Please dont start stalking me too!!! LMAO

Edited May 21, 2022 by Cookie Monster

[Grim Reaper 6]

7 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

This site sends notifications of your personal vendetta.  The screen shot is evidence of that.  You even acted confused to a post referring to the superlineal growth mentioned in the OP.

I have no personal vendetta, unlike you I sincerely hold no grudges. After our disagreement I was prepared to let sleeping dogs lay and move on, but you obviously made the choice not to do that. Since our disagreement on the Abortion issue whenever we both end up posting in the same thread, you have tagging me with the Confused or sad Imoji's even though  I have paid no attention to you or responded to your comments. So as far as personal vendettas are concerned that is something your well versed in. Allowing sleeping dogs to lay is the best solution to our disagreement, however that is entirely up to you. However, you still have the ignore feature at your disposal, let me be clear about ignore, I choose not to use it. I have never chosen to use such remedies thus far in my life and that will never change.

7 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

Calling me a stalker is hypocritical projection from a bruised ego, that couldn't back up their accusations that I called them names.

Yes I called you a stalker, mostly in jest, but there is obviously more to it than just jest on your part in thus and whether you openly admit or not is in material at this point.. Ever since you started with the emojis ( Next Day ) I screen shot every one of them. So it makes no difference at this point whether you delete them all or not because the truth of the matter stands.

7 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

It's an unexplained mystery how you parade your duplicitous standards and somehow rationalise them to yourself.

 

The only mystery that is unexplained is how you have chosen to wield your religious beliefs. Now, I respect your right to your religious beliefs, I certainly do not persecute anyone for their Religious beliefs or their lack of them which you can not claim with a clear conscience. Now there is certainly nothing duplicitous about that, and whether your honestly able to admit it or not is solely upon your shoulders not  mine.

[Grim Reaper 6]

1 hour ago, Cookie Monster said:

The current position in science is its not known how life started or how common it is off Earth.

We may be the only civilization in the universe, there might be a few, there might be trillions, we do not know. The best analogy I have heard is landing on Mars and finding a perfect working clock. Then trying to figure out how it could have possibly come together by random chance.

The universe may be weird too, it might be created by us through primacy of mind.

P.S. Please dont start stalking me too!!! LMAO

Let me answer your last comment first, there is always a trail that clearly shows where a stalker has been. This situation is not Amy different , so while I am aware that you intended your comments to be humorous and that is how I view them, there are always multiple sides to any story and this story is no different!

You are certainly right, however like I stated previously there are two schools of thought on the subject.

 These conversations always lead in one or two directions based upon the current schools of thought in the scientific community. One side says life is plentiful across our Universe ( Astrobiologists) and the other side says life Earth is a rare and unlikely event ( Astrophysicists ) and then their are cross overs from both communities.

1. Fermi Paradox - presents the belief that other intelligent life in the Universe Is unlikely.

Intelligent Life in Cosmology: https://arxiv.org/pdf/0704.0058.pdf

2. Drake equation: https://www.wikizero.com/en/Drake's_Equation: 

3. A joint analysis of the Drake equation and the Fermi paradox: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1301.6411.pdf

From Cosmos to Intelligent Life: The Four Ages of Astrobiology: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.5042.pdf

First thank you very much for the reply to my previous comments on how life began ( In my opinion it’s very difficult to believe that life is so rare in a Universe filled with the same chemical components that allowed life to begin and thrive on Earth, or planets that can support some form of life are rare) we’re certainly not an in depth example of the process so let me clear this up.

I am a very firm believer in the Panspermia Theory and that early Earth was seeded with the building blocks of life from space. Between 4.5 billion years ago and 4 billion years ago the Earths surface was a sterile blank slate, do to the high temperatures of the Earths creation. When Earths surface cooled to a point where liquid water could remain on the Earths surface which approximately occurred 500 Million years after the planets formation ( approximately 4.5 billion years ago ) this was the first step toward the formation life!

Currently, the most favored explanation for where the early Earth got its water is that it acquired it from water-rich objects (planetesimals) that made up a few percent of its building blocks. These water-rich planetesimals could have been both comets and asteroids in addition to the water that arrived with them, they also brought a number of chemical compounds. This primordial debris included ammonia, carbon dioxide and organic molecules such as amino acids, amphiphiles and nucleobases—the building blocks of proteins, cell membranes and RNA and DNA, respectively.

The earliest life forms that existed on Earth we know of at this time were microscopic organisms (microbes) that left signals of their presence in rocks about 3.7 billion years ago. Approximately 3.5 billion years later more complex life forms developed from microscopic organisms in shallow bodies of water. Evidence of these microbes was preserved in the hard structures ( Stromatolites ) which they made, and also which date to 3.5 billion years ago. Stromatolites were created as sticky mats of microbes that trap and bind sediments into layers. Minerals precipitate inside the layers, creating durable structures even as the microbes die off. In fact Stromatolites are the oldest living structured life’s forms still alive on Earth today.First thank you very much for the reply to my previous comments on how life began ( In my opinion it’s very difficult to believe that life is so rare in a Universe filled with the same chemical components that allowed life to begin and thrive on Earth, or planets that can support some form of life are rare) we’re certainly not an in depth example of the process so let me clear this up.

I am a very firm believer in the Panspermia Theory and that early Earth was seeded with the building blocks of life from space. Between 4.5 billion years ago and 4 billion years ago the Earths surface was a sterile blank slate, do to the high temperatures of the Earths creation. When Earths surface cooled to a point where liquid water could remain on the Earths surface which approximately occurred 500 Million years after the planets formation ( approximately 4.5 billion years ago ) this was the first step toward the formation life!

Currently, the most favored explanation for where the early Earth got its water is that it acquired it from water-rich objects (planetesimals) that made up a few percent of its building blocks. These water-rich planetesimals could have been both comets and asteroids in addition to the water that arrived with them, they also brought a number of chemical compounds. This primordial debris included ammonia, carbon dioxide and organic molecules such as amino acids, amphiphiles and nucleobases—the building blocks of proteins, cell membranes and RNA and DNA, respectively.

The earliest life forms that existed on Earth we know of at this time were microscopic organisms (microbes) that left signals of their presence in rocks about 3.7 billion years ago. Approximately 3.5 billion years later more complex life forms developed from microscopic organisms in shallow bodies of water. Evidence of these microbes was preserved in the hard structures ( Stromatolites ) which they made, and also which date to 3.5 billion years ago. Stromatolites were created as sticky mats of microbes that trap and bind sediments into layers. Minerals precipitate inside the layers, creating durable structures even as the microbes die off. In fact Stromatolites are the oldest living structured life’s forms still alive on Earth today.

I don’t believe these events or conditions are extremely unlikely and neither do biologists and astrobiologists do to you the vast size of our Universe. As far as probabilities are concerned there's one thing we can be sure of in this entire series of unlikely events, that occurred  one after the other, nothing that occurred at any point had an infinitesimal likelihood. Instead, every single event, including the creation of life here on Earth does not have a infinitesimal likelihood of occurring over and over again according to Bayes' theorem, across our Universe according to mathematical probabilities. 

This mathematical idea is devastatingly simple, but its consequences are incredibly complex and it has far reaching concepts. On its own, Bayes' theorem is simply a rule to tell you the probability that something is true, given knowledge of conditions that are related to the thing you're trying to measure and the time allowed fo

I will add this as food for thought, it may interest you or it may not. Well what many people fail to realize is that when early biogenesis events first occurred on Earth carbon based life may not have been the only the life forms to occur. While this is theoretical there is a current hypothesis that non-water based life may have originally existed side by side with water based life, and died out as conditions on Earth changed because of the oxygen rich atmosphere that developed. In the beginning oxygen was poison the life forms that first began developing on Earth The basis for this theory has resulted from scientific studies and simulations being carried out concerning Saturns moon Titan. 
 

Titan is the only object in our solar system besides Earth, that presently has both rainfall and erosion due to liquid movement. But the water it has is locked far underground and the moon is too cold to support an impact from water anyway. Researchers have discovered after poring over data sent back by Huygens, the surface does have hydrogen cyanide in its sediment, brought down from the atmosphere by methane and ethane rain. these molecules are that drove the design of the simulations—the researchers wanted to see if they could form the basis of reactions that could lead to the creation of polymers such as polyimine. Which the researchers note are conducive to the formation of prebiotic reactions leading to a formation of life. 
 

The simulations showed that such reactions are possible and that the structures that came about were also able to absorb sunlight in the wavelengths present on the Titan surface. This has prompted researchers to suggest their work, and that done by others indicates that a return to the planet by a new probe might be in order, one able to test for a different form of life, or at least its precursors.

I hope I have better explained my thoughts on the subject than I did previously and I hope this doesn’t create further confusion.

 

[Duke Wellington]

55 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

Let me answer your last comment first, there is always a trail that clearly shows where a stalker has been. This situation is not Amy different , so while I am aware that you intended your comments to be humorous and that is how I view them, there are always multiple sides to any story and this story is no different!

You are certainly right, however like I stated previously there are two schools of thought on the subject.

 These conversations always lead in one or two directions based upon the current schools of thought in the scientific community. One side says life is plentiful across our Universe ( Astrobiologists) and the other side says life Earth is a rare and unlikely event ( Astrophysicists ) and then their are cross overs from both communities.

1. Fermi Paradox - presents the belief that other intelligent life in the Universe Is unlikely.

Intelligent Life in Cosmology: https://arxiv.org/pdf/0704.0058.pdf

2. Drake equation: https://www.wikizero.com/en/Drake's_Equation: 

3. A joint analysis of the Drake equation and the Fermi paradox: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1301.6411.pdf

From Cosmos to Intelligent Life: The Four Ages of Astrobiology: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.5042.pdf

First thank you very much for the reply to my previous comments on how life began ( In my opinion it’s very difficult to believe that life is so rare in a Universe filled with the same chemical components that allowed life to begin and thrive on Earth, or planets that can support some form of life are rare) we’re certainly not an in depth example of the process so let me clear this up.

I am a very firm believer in the Panspermia Theory and that early Earth was seeded with the building blocks of life from space. Between 4.5 billion years ago and 4 billion years ago the Earths surface was a sterile blank slate, do to the high temperatures of the Earths creation. When Earths surface cooled to a point where liquid water could remain on the Earths surface which approximately occurred 500 Million years after the planets formation ( approximately 4.5 billion years ago ) this was the first step toward the formation life!

Currently, the most favored explanation for where the early Earth got its water is that it acquired it from water-rich objects (planetesimals) that made up a few percent of its building blocks. These water-rich planetesimals could have been both comets and asteroids in addition to the water that arrived with them, they also brought a number of chemical compounds. This primordial debris included ammonia, carbon dioxide and organic molecules such as amino acids, amphiphiles and nucleobases—the building blocks of proteins, cell membranes and RNA and DNA, respectively.

The earliest life forms that existed on Earth we know of at this time were microscopic organisms (microbes) that left signals of their presence in rocks about 3.7 billion years ago. Approximately 3.5 billion years later more complex life forms developed from microscopic organisms in shallow bodies of water. Evidence of these microbes was preserved in the hard structures ( Stromatolites ) which they made, and also which date to 3.5 billion years ago. Stromatolites were created as sticky mats of microbes that trap and bind sediments into layers. Minerals precipitate inside the layers, creating durable structures even as the microbes die off. In fact Stromatolites are the oldest living structured life’s forms still alive on Earth today.First thank you very much for the reply to my previous comments on how life began ( In my opinion it’s very difficult to believe that life is so rare in a Universe filled with the same chemical components that allowed life to begin and thrive on Earth, or planets that can support some form of life are rare) we’re certainly not an in depth example of the process so let me clear this up.

I am a very firm believer in the Panspermia Theory and that early Earth was seeded with the building blocks of life from space. Between 4.5 billion years ago and 4 billion years ago the Earths surface was a sterile blank slate, do to the high temperatures of the Earths creation. When Earths surface cooled to a point where liquid water could remain on the Earths surface which approximately occurred 500 Million years after the planets formation ( approximately 4.5 billion years ago ) this was the first step toward the formation life!

Currently, the most favored explanation for where the early Earth got its water is that it acquired it from water-rich objects (planetesimals) that made up a few percent of its building blocks. These water-rich planetesimals could have been both comets and asteroids in addition to the water that arrived with them, they also brought a number of chemical compounds. This primordial debris included ammonia, carbon dioxide and organic molecules such as amino acids, amphiphiles and nucleobases—the building blocks of proteins, cell membranes and RNA and DNA, respectively.

The earliest life forms that existed on Earth we know of at this time were microscopic organisms (microbes) that left signals of their presence in rocks about 3.7 billion years ago. Approximately 3.5 billion years later more complex life forms developed from microscopic organisms in shallow bodies of water. Evidence of these microbes was preserved in the hard structures ( Stromatolites ) which they made, and also which date to 3.5 billion years ago. Stromatolites were created as sticky mats of microbes that trap and bind sediments into layers. Minerals precipitate inside the layers, creating durable structures even as the microbes die off. In fact Stromatolites are the oldest living structured life’s forms still alive on Earth today.

I don’t believe these events or conditions are extremely unlikely and neither do biologists and astrobiologists do to you the vast size of our Universe. As far as probabilities are concerned there's one thing we can be sure of in this entire series of unlikely events, that occurred  one after the other, nothing that occurred at any point had an infinitesimal likelihood. Instead, every single event, including the creation of life here on Earth does not have a infinitesimal likelihood of occurring over and over again according to Bayes' theorem, across our Universe according to mathematical probabilities. 

This mathematical idea is devastatingly simple, but its consequences are incredibly complex and it has far reaching concepts. On its own, Bayes' theorem is simply a rule to tell you the probability that something is true, given knowledge of conditions that are related to the thing you're trying to measure and the time allowed fo

I will add this as food for thought, it may interest you or it may not. Well what many people fail to realize is that when early biogenesis events first occurred on Earth carbon based life may not have been the only the life forms to occur. While this is theoretical there is a current hypothesis that non-water based life may have originally existed side by side with water based life, and died out as conditions on Earth changed because of the oxygen rich atmosphere that developed. In the beginning oxygen was poison the life forms that first began developing on Earth The basis for this theory has resulted from scientific studies and simulations being carried out concerning Saturns moon Titan. 
 

Titan is the only object in our solar system besides Earth, that presently has both rainfall and erosion due to liquid movement. But the water it has is locked far underground and the moon is too cold to support an impact from water anyway. Researchers have discovered after poring over data sent back by Huygens, the surface does have hydrogen cyanide in its sediment, brought down from the atmosphere by methane and ethane rain. these molecules are that drove the design of the simulations—the researchers wanted to see if they could form the basis of reactions that could lead to the creation of polymers such as polyimine. Which the researchers note are conducive to the formation of prebiotic reactions leading to a formation of life. 
 

The simulations showed that such reactions are possible and that the structures that came about were also able to absorb sunlight in the wavelengths present on the Titan surface. This has prompted researchers to suggest their work, and that done by others indicates that a return to the planet by a new probe might be in order, one able to test for a different form of life, or at least its precursors.

I hope I have better explained my thoughts on the subject than I did previously and I hope this doesn’t create further confusion.

 

Its a mere hypothesis as you yourself stated.

There are a 1000 others because no one knows how life began.

Edited May 21, 2022 by Cookie Monster

[Abramelin]

On 5/15/2022 at 1:01 PM, XenoFish said:

What if we are the most advanced aliens? 

Then all hope is lost.

We, the most arrogant species of the universe.

"One step for man, one giant leap for his ego." ~Neil Armstrong.

Sorry "man" should be gender-neutral, and "his" should be "her", or "its", or "whatever".