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3 Scenarios for How Putin Could Actually Use Nukes


Manwon Lender
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We know that Russian President Vladimir Putin is thinking about using nuclear weapons. He has twice warned the West not to intervene in Ukraine or face “consequences that you have never encountered in your history.” Recently, Moscow again threatened “unpredictable consequences” if the U.S. continued sending advanced armaments to Ukraine. CIA Director William Burns has said that “none of us can take lightly” the prospect that Putin might resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
 

Scenario 1: Remote atmospheric test

Least provocative would be Putin’s resumption of above-ground nuclear testing — by detonating a low-yield nuclear warhead high above Novaya Zemlya, the old Soviet test site in the Arctic, for example. While both the actual damage on the ground and radioactive fallout would be negligible, the psychological effect could be enormous: It would be the first nuclear explosion by a superpower since nuclear testing ended in 1992, and the first bomb detonated in the atmosphere by either the U.S. or Russia after such tests were outlawed by treaty in 1963. It would also be a potent reminder that Putin has tactical nuclear weapons in abundance — about 2,000 by last count — and is prepared to use them.

Scenario 2: Atmospheric detonation above Ukraine

A more provocative demonstration would be an ultra-high-altitude explosion of a more powerful weapon over Ukraine itself. In a 1962 test, the U.S. detonated a 1.4-megaton H-bomb in the mid-Pacific, 250 miles above the Earth. The resulting electromagnetic pulse unexpectedly knocked out streetlights and disrupted telephone service in Hawaii, 900 miles distant. A similarly powerful explosion above Kyiv would not only be visually spectacular but would likely plunge the capital into prolonged darkness and silence by shorting out computers, cellphones and other electronics. EMP effects might also extend into NATO member countries. But the extent of damage from the pulse is unpredictable, and Russian communications could also be affected.

Scenario 3: Ground explosion in Ukraine

Most dangerous — and, for that reason, perhaps least likely — would be using a tactical nuclear weapon to achieve a concrete military objective such as disrupting the delivery of weapons to Ukrainians fighting in a city like Mariupol. Alternatively, Putin might detonate a tactical nuclear warhead against military or logistics targets in sparsely populated western Ukraine — in the agricultural lands between Lviv and Kyiv, for instance — after warning people in the target area to evacuate. But even the smallest nuclear weapon would set fires over a wide area if detonated in the air. Depending on the height of the explosion, it could also spread lingering radioactive fallout, possibly extending into NATO member countries and Russia itself.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/3-scenarios-for-how-putin-could-actually-use-nukes/ar-AAXkMJP?ocid=Peregrine&cvid=199c7969047640818d19d3eb04b0e8e9

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Posted (edited)

The trick would be to use maybe 200 small tactical nukes to decimate dense combat groups and fortified defences.

And threaten Ukraine with a large one, I dont know the size of the city but maybe a 2 megaton. Heavy sanctions would follow, so Russia would need to quickly grab all its former USSR territory to support its eco. That may mean more tactical nukes.

No WW3 will come unless US, France, or Britain get nuked.

Edited by Cookie Monster
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38 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

No WW3 will come unless US, France, or Britain get nuked.

Why do you think it would only: a.) require nukes, and b.) involve those countries that you named? You think that no WW3 would come about if there was an attack on any other NATO country without the use of nukes?

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I'm 99% sure that it won't happen. Even if Putin's mental health deteriorates so much that he gives the order his generals will not follow it. Conventional wars are one thing, using nukes is completely different story.

 

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First step is more likely massive hacking that would shut down our power grid and economy. Then of course we would respond similarly.  That would be enough to see people thrown into chaos and starvation in fairly short order.

It should be enough  devastation to satisfy anybody. 

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Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, TrumanB said:

I'm 99% sure that it won't happen. Even if Putin's mental health deteriorates so much that he gives the order his generals will not follow it. Conventional wars are one thing, using nukes is completely different story.

 

Maybe some won’t but that doesn’t mean that all of them will be on the same page. People like to latch on to this hopeful optimism because it is beyond rational comprehension as to why one would choose to launch nukes and throw the world into chaos but the stark reality is that some of them almost certainly would. Either way none of us really knows, and won’t until orders are given to launch them. 

Yes they have families, yes they probably don’t want to die, but if they’re convinced that the alternative is worse (whatever that may be) then of course they will probably do it.

In a way, sometimes I just want them to press the button and get on with it instead of just yammering on about it all the time. 

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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5 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Yes they have families, yes they probably don’t want to die, but if they’re convinced that the alternative is worse (whatever that may be) then of course they will probably do it. 

I don't see why would they think that alternative is worse. It's not that NATO invaded Russia or that any country has a plan to use nukes on them.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, TrumanB said:

I don't see why would they think that alternative is worse. It's not that NATO invaded Russia or that any country has a plan to use nukes on them.

It would depend on what information they have been provided, I’d think. If they have little knowledge on what’s actually going on then I could see a situation in which they may act on orders, especially if they think NATO-nazis or some other such nonsense are on the verge of invading the motherland, where their family/lives would be destroyed anyway.

It’s unwise imo to think that all of them would refuse. If they’d all refuse then all of them wouldn’t be in the position they are, I’d reckon.

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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2 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

It would depend on what information they have been provided, I’d think. If they have little knowledge on what’s actually going on then I could see a situation in which they may act on orders, especially if they think NATO-nazis or some other such nonsense are on the verge of invading the motherland, where their family/lives would be destroyed anyway.

It’s unwise imo to think that all of them would refuse. If they’d all refuse then all of them wouldn’t be in the position they are, I’d reckon.

I don't think that they will have little knowledge or be provided with wrong information. It doesn't really go that way, they are not stupid and neither their secret services are.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, TrumanB said:

I don't think that they will have little knowledge or be provided with wrong information. It doesn't really go that way, they are not stupid and neither their secret services are.

Okay, you’re right, none of them would act on orders. :-* All of them would refuse. 

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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5 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Okay, you’re right, none of them would act on orders. :-* All of them would refuse. 

It's not an order like any other order...

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2 minutes ago, TrumanB said:

It's not an order like any other order...

You are convinced that they would all refuse, I’m convinced some would and some wouldn‘t. I don’t think there is anything left to discuss on that matter because neither of us know. It’s sheer speculation. 

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2 hours ago, TrumanB said:

It's not an order like any other order...

Except, (if its anything like how the chain of command works in the states), they wouldn't (the soldiers themselves) even know if they are truly launching a weapon or its another drill. Soldiers are trained to follow orders. To think that they would refuse is simply wishful thinking. Sadly.

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6 minutes ago, Bavarian Raven said:

Except, (if its anything like how the chain of command works in the states), they wouldn't (the soldiers themselves) even know if they are truly launching a weapon or its another drill. Soldiers are trained to follow orders. To think that they would refuse is simply wishful thinking. Sadly.

From what I heard a while ago, which could be wrong, but that the Russian soldiers put in to handle the launching nuclear missiles are hand picked and part of the selection process is showing extreme loyalty to Russia and a willingness to follow every and any order without question.  If true it would suggest the Russian soldiers would follow through with any confirmed order to launch.

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5 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

No WW3 will come unless US, France, or Britain get nuked

Ready to bet the lives of millions on that assumption?  Russia does not have the resources or the manpower to control multiple former  Soviet Federated Socialist Republics.  Those folks have had differing levels of freedom for nearly 30 years and they'd surely resist after seeing what Ukraine has been capable of.  Russia has NO RIGHT to retake and subjugate those peoples against their will.

As for Putin deploying a nuke, it would shatter the old order and things would never be the same again.  It would almost certainly lead to a nuclear conflict in the near future.

 

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4 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

First step is more likely massive hacking that would shut down our power grid and economy. Then of course we would respond similarly.  That would be enough to see people thrown into chaos and starvation in fairly short order.

It should be enough  devastation to satisfy anybody. 

I read something yesterday opining that Iran could sucker-punch the U.S. with an EMP attack VIA a crude nuke disguised as a satellite.  If it was of sufficient yield and altitude, it would lead to cascading failure over a vast amount of our territory.  It could end the nation and the estimate was 90% dead within a year due to a total grid-down event that leads to starvation, disease, and neighbors turning against neighbors.  

The downside for Iran is that IF the U.S. president was willing to strike back, Iran would totally cease to exist.

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5 hours ago, TrumanB said:

I'm 99% sure that it won't happen. Even if Putin's mental health deteriorates so much that he gives the order his generals will not follow it. Conventional wars are one thing, using nukes is completely different story.

 

So  you have talked to his 'generals'?  Putin is in power because the very people you are talking about put him in power.  They don't take orders from him...He takes orders from them.  Just sayin'  it's all propaganda for mass thought control...that ya'll are even talking about it shows that it is effective.

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The only way Putin can regain some credibility is to follow through on his threat. He has no choice but to resign, otherwise.

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10 hours ago, Cookie Monster said:

The trick would be to use maybe 200 small tactical nukes to decimate dense combat groups and fortified defences.

And threaten Ukraine with a large one, I dont know the size of the city but maybe a 2 megaton. Heavy sanctions would follow, so Russia would need to quickly grab all its former USSR territory to support its eco. That may mean more tactical nukes.

No WW3 will come unless US, France, or Britain get nuked.

What’s the purpose of doing that the things sit if he uses a Nuclear  weapon and fallout contaminates a NATO county the EU, US and NATO will respond directly or attack Russian forces with a tactical Nuke!

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3 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

What’s the purpose of doing that the things sit if he uses a Nuclear  weapon and fallout contaminates a NATO county the EU, US and NATO will respond directly or attack Russian forces with a tactical Nuke!

Dont take notice of him, have you seen his posts throughout this site? Nothing but crap.

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12 hours ago, joc said:

So  you have talked to his 'generals'?  Putin is in power because the very people you are talking about put him in power.  They don't take orders from him...He takes orders from them.  Just sayin'  it's all propaganda for mass thought control...that ya'll are even talking about it shows that it is effective.

I'm not a big fan of these 'puppet president' theories whether it's a US president in debate or Russian.

From what I've seen so far, Putin orders and generals stare at tops of their shoes and nod. 

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1 hour ago, TrumanB said:

I'm not a big fan of these 'puppet president' theories whether it's a US president in debate or Russian.

From what I've seen so far, Putin orders and generals stare at tops of their shoes and nod. 

Yeah, I don't think Putin is controlled by anybody but Putin. He does not strike me as puppet, but rather a puppeteer.

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6 hours ago, TrumanB said:

I'm not a big fan of these 'puppet president' theories whether it's a US president in debate or Russian.

From what I've seen so far, Putin orders and generals stare at tops of their shoes and nod. 

 

5 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Yeah, I don't think Putin is controlled by anybody but Putin. He does not strike me as puppet, but rather a puppeteer.

 You could both be right.  But regardless...he isn't a lunatic.  He isn't going to actually use Nuclear Weapons.  He isn't suicidal.  He wants to win.  

To understand Putin...you have to go back to Reagan and Gorby.  They lost the cold war.  But they didn't give up.  And now...they are on the verge of taking everything back...but nukes don't get them there.  It's a bluff scare tactic.  Trump called him on it.  Biden won't.  So, you are left with the question Why?  Because there is so much more to this Chess Game than meets the eye!

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, joc said:

 

 You could both be right.  But regardless...he isn't a lunatic.  He isn't going to actually use Nuclear Weapons.  He isn't suicidal.  He wants to win.  

To understand Putin...you have to go back to Reagan and Gorby.  They lost the cold war.  But they didn't give up.  And now...they are on the verge of taking everything back...but nukes don't get them there.  It's a bluff scare tactic.  Trump called him on it.  Biden won't.  So, you are left with the question Why?  Because there is so much more to this Chess Game than meets the eye!

That's exactly what I'm saying. He is not going to do it.

Yes, there is more to this Game. It's about domination. In past 30 and some years USA have been dominating both with hard and soft power (not something always to be proud of if you're asking me). Now Putin wants to create a new Empire. And it's not going to work as he and people around him hoped to, Russia will decline in different ways. In the sense of civilization this is a huge step back. They are also losing people. Do I have to mention how many Russians escaped to my region because they don't want to sink together with Putin. It can only continue. On surface Russia has the power and will achieve some success in domination but it's rotting inside. They are losing population and humaneness.

Edited by TrumanB
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