Poll of polls show Brits have officially turned against Brexit

[Silver]

Analysis of more than 200 polls has revealed that Brits have now turned against Brexit – with a ten-point gap opening between those who believed it was right to vote out and those who believe it was a mistake.

An Evening Standard study has shown that an average of just under 49 per cent of adults now believe voting to leave the European Union was the wrong thing to do, compared to just over 38 per cent who still say it was the right decision.

The average annual gap between those who believe it was “wrong” to vote to Leave compared to “right” has risen into double digits for the first time in 2022, to 10.6 percentage points.

This is almost double the 5.5 percentage point gap of last year, and far higher than 6.4 percentage points in 2020 and just under seven points in 2019, according to the analysis of 211 polls which asked whether in hindsight people thought Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU.

Poll of polls show Brits have officially turned against Brexit (thelondoneconomic.com)

Edited June 28, 2022 by The Silver Shroud

[L.A.T.1961]

Still on less than 50% (49%) to stay in. 

If things don't change they stay the same, as my old grandpappy used to say.  

 

[Silver]

1 hour ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

Still on less than 50% (49%) to stay in. 

If things don't change they stay the same, as my old grandpappy used to say.  

 

And 38% think it was right to Leave. Considerably less than the 52% who thought it a good idea in 2016. Still, the main point is that pro-EU sentiment is growing. Given that the over-65's made up the majority of Brexiters, we should expect to rejoin at some time in the future, probably it will take 10 years. The main difficulty would be to persuade the EU to accept us back- Johnson's government is breaking international rules and laws at an alarming rate and trashing our global reputation. We can regain that thought, with the Tories gone at the next GE.

[itsnotoutthere]

[L.A.T.1961]

The Silver Shroud

"And 38% think it was right to Leave. Considerably less than the 52% who thought it a good idea in 2016. Still, the main point is that pro-EU sentiment is growing. Given that the over-65's made up the majority of Brexiters, we should expect to rejoin at some time in the future, probably it will take 10 years. The main difficulty would be to persuade the EU to accept us back- Johnson's government is breaking international rules and laws at an alarming rate and trashing our global reputation. We can regain that thought, with the Tories gone at the next GE."

 

Yes but what will the EU look like by then ? 

Whatever, it will be nothing like the EU we left behind and if Ukraine is a guide to new membership it will take decades. The type of UK Gov will make no difference.

By then a real picture of the problems or benefits will be clear to see and I don't expect many benefits, unless you count free movement of people in a world awash in economic migrants and having to pay for the privilege of taking uncontrolled numbers in. 

The block will also have less influence in the world and its rules not thought essential for a lot of global trade.

Many will be aligning standards with Asian demands as significant trade will be there.

EU will be a rule taker and as is the case with liberal policy, in debt, having borrowed money not just in the name of individual members but the EU as a separate entity and without a lender of last resort. 

They will at that stage be desperate for business, with anybody, and the UK will be happy to reciprocate when Brussels reduce barriers and Tariffs imposed on UK. 

Much will eventually be made of like minded democracies working productively together. 

Whether in the EU or not. 

 

Edited June 28, 2022 by L.A.T.1961

[Duke Wellington]

3 hours ago, The Silver Shroud said:

Analysis of more than 200 polls has revealed that Brits have now turned against Brexit – with a ten-point gap opening between those who believed it was right to vote out and those who believe it was a mistake.

An Evening Standard study has shown that an average of just under 49 per cent of adults now believe voting to leave the European Union was the wrong thing to do, compared to just over 38 per cent who still say it was the right decision.

The average annual gap between those who believe it was “wrong” to vote to Leave compared to “right” has risen into double digits for the first time in 2022, to 10.6 percentage points.

This is almost double the 5.5 percentage point gap of last year, and far higher than 6.4 percentage points in 2020 and just under seven points in 2019, according to the analysis of 211 polls which asked whether in hindsight people thought Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU.

Poll of polls show Brits have officially turned against Brexit (thelondoneconomic.com)

I have issues about the conclusions drawn from this.

Where is the data about each poll used in the poll of polls? How many people were asked in each individual poll? Where in the country were they? What racial background where they? What socio-economic background where they? What were the exact questions asked?

Too highlight a serious problem with the reliability of polls lets create a fictional one where only 2 polls were included in the poll of polls.

Poll A: 500 ethnic Brits from Sunderland are asked if they would vote to stay out of the EU again, and 55% agree.

Poll B: 50 London immigrants working in the banking sector are asked if they would vote to re-join the EU of which 60% agreed.

Lets ditch how many people were asked in each, and their ethic backgrounds, and just give each poll an equal weighting. When we do that we pretend that Poll B also asked 500 people. And low and behind the result we get out is that 52.5% of the UK wants to re-join the EU. Something which clearly doesn`t represent the reality of the two polls combined.

A poll is only useful when it is on its own, targets random people, and the people it targets represents the true demographic make-up of the UK albeit on a smaller scale. 

Edited June 28, 2022 by Cookie Monster

[+OverSword]

Quit bellyaching remoaners.  The EU wouldn't let you back in now.  

[itsnotoutthere]

The 'poll of polls' was done in 2016.

[Silver]

17 minutes ago, OverSword said:

Quit bellyaching remoaners.  The EU wouldn't let you back in now.  

It is true the EU won't let us rejoin without following the correct procedure, which Ukraine for example is going through. 

But it is vital that we "bellyache", as you put it. We need to highlight the damage that Brexit is doing. Our Minister for Brexit Opportunites is highlighting the upsides: we can make more powerful vacuum cleaners (which we wouldn't be able to sell to Europe, our main market), we can stamp pint glasses with a crown mark (which we already did), and we can use Imperial measures like Miles Per Hour and gallons (which we already did and continue to do). And that's it. That's all we have to show for increased trade friction, political problems with the NI Protocol, border delays, and a financial hit of 4% damage to GDP year on year and families worse off by £1500 per year.

[So Far Away]

17 hours ago, The Silver Shroud said:

And 38% think it was right to Leave. Considerably less than the 52% who thought it a good idea in 2016. Still, the main point is that pro-EU sentiment is growing. Given that the over-65's made up the majority of Brexiters, we should expect to rejoin at some time in the future, probably it will take 10 years. The main difficulty would be to persuade the EU to accept us back- Johnson's government is breaking international rules and laws at an alarming rate and trashing our global reputation. We can regain that thought, with the Tories gone at the next GE.

Nonsense. The vote was completely anonymous and done in the privacy of the voting booth, so there is zero evidence to back up your claim that it was mostly the over-65's that voted to Leave the EU other than your own prejudice.

My own constituency (Southport) is a coastal town renowned as a traditional retirement area, where the younger generation is far outnumbered by the older generation, so by your logic Leave would have been an automatic slam dunk, and yet it voted by nearly 54% in favour of Remain, so where does that fit into your arrogant little stereotype then?

And even "if" it was the elderly in the main did vote for Brexit, so what?

Perhaps if the lazy young toads had got off their games consoles and bothered to vote in the first place then maybe you wouldn't have to single out the elderly just because they did vote.

Future generations may well vote to rejoin the EU, and if so then I will actually respect that decision, unlike you Remoaners, who have shown absolutely zero respect for our decision to Leave the EU.

Unfortunately for you though, the UK won't be getting another referendum for several decades (possibly never) given how you Remoaners have refused to accept the result of the EU referendum, and actively tried to have the result squashed, therefore, it is unlikely a referendum on anything will be held in the UK again, so it's all your fault.!!

But if you seriously think the UK will vote to rejoin the EU, then let's start with talking about how the UK is even going to be able to meet the strict economic criteria for joining the EU anyway, considering how you Remoaners have been insisting all along that Brexit will render the UK an economic basketcase.

Once you've squared your own circle, we can then go on to discuss how you are ever even going to convince the British people to ditch the Pound and adopt the Euro, as all new EU members are required to adopt the single currency, and those of us who are old enough remember all too well what a disaster it was when the UK joined the ERM (the pre-cursor to the Euro) back in 1990, which proved absolutely disastrous for the UK's economy, being a key factor in the 1991 recession.

So go on, over to you. The floor is all yours.

[Silver]

12 minutes ago, So Far Away said:

Nonsense. The vote was completely anonymous and done in the privacy of the voting booth, so there is zero evidence to back up your claim that it was mostly the over-65's that voted to Leave the EU other than your own prejudice.

 

Good Lord! I have never read anything so stupid. The vote has been analyzed almost to death, the demographics are widely known. This is so nonsensical I haven't bothered to read the rest of your post.

[So Far Away]

5 minutes ago, The Silver Shroud said:

Good Lord! I have never read anything so stupid. The vote has been analyzed almost to death, the demographics are widely known. This is so nonsensical I haven't bothered to read the rest of your post.

Oh, so because what I've said doesn't suit your narrative, you instantly mockingly dismiss it and refuse to read any further or even consider that I "might" just actually have a point? That's a good basis for seeing someone else's point of view.

Your "analysis" is flawed though, because in any vote that takes place it's generally the over 65's that are more likely to vote anyway, full stop, whilst the 18-24 year old age group are more likely to not bother voting at all. There's your flaw right there, the older age groups generally outvote younger age groups anyway no matter what vote takes place, because older voters tend to vote whilst younger voters generally don't bother.

In the 2015 General Election, the gap between old voters and young voters was massive. According to Ipsos Mori just 43% of 18-24-year-olds went to the polls, compared with 78% of people aged 65 or over - "The old aren't voting more now - but the young are voting far less."

Your problem is not so much that the over 65's voted Leave, your problem is that the over 65's actually voted in the first place, whilst the 18-24 year old age group generally just didn't bother voting at all. Perhaps in reality younger voters just aren't as bothered about the EU as you arrogantly seem to think they are. Here you go: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39965925.amp

[Silver]

59 minutes ago, So Far Away said:

 

Your problem is not so much that the over 65's voted Leave, your problem is that the over 65's actually voted in the first place, whilst the 18-24 year old age group generally just didn't bother voting at all. Perhaps in reality younger voters just aren't as bothered about the EU as you arrogantly seem to think they are. Here you go: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39965925.amp

So what? My point is the elderly won't be around as long as youngsters. Anyway, you might find this interesting. First sentence: Over-65s were more than twice as likely as under-25s to have voted to Leave the European Union. Second point: The most dramatic split is along the lines of education.

How Britain voted at the EU referendum | YouGov

Edited June 29, 2022 by The Silver Shroud

[itsnotoutthere]

6 minutes ago, The Silver Shroud said:

So what? My point is the elderly won't be around as long as youngsters. Anyway, you might find this interesting. First sentence: Over-65s were more than twice as likely as under-25s to have voted to Leave the European Union:

:How Britain voted at the EU referendum | YouGov

From your own thread on the newly published census :-

"There are now more people aged 65 and over than ever before - accounting for 18.6% of the population, compared to 16.4% in 2011, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures show."

 

p.s. And why do you think the over 65s are more likely to have voted for Brexit.....could it be something to do with 'the lived experience'?

Edited June 29, 2022 by itsnotoutthere

[Silver]

20 minutes ago, itsnotoutthere said:

From your own thread on the newly published census :-

"There are now more people aged 65 and over than ever before - accounting for 18.6% of the population, compared to 16.4% in 2011, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures show."

 

p.s. And why do you think the over 65s are more likely to have voted for Brexit.....could it be something to do with 'the lived experience'?

Lol,we are all getting older, even 18 year olds are now in their mid twenties. If you look at the YouGov survey I posted, you might get a clue as to why the over 65s voted as they did. Lack of education, indoctrination by the Murdoch media, and the idiot Farage expoiting populism  all played a large part.

Edited June 29, 2022 by The Silver Shroud

[So Far Away]

45 minutes ago, The Silver Shroud said:

So what? My point is the elderly won't be around as long as youngsters. Anyway, you might find this interesting. First sentence: Over-65s were more than twice as likely as under-25s to have voted to Leave the European Union :

:How Britain voted at the EU referendum | YouGov

Eh? That doesn't even make any sense, but there again, you're a Remoaner, so I don't really expect you to make any sense. Errrm, take a guess who the present elderly were at one point? Let me give you a tiny bit of a clue: They weren't born elderly, at one point they were also youngsters, because, get this, most youngsters tend to become elderly, so unfortunately for you, the elderly are still going to be around as long as youngsters.

"Over-65s were more than twice as "likely" as under-25s to have voted to Leave the European Union"

And there's your flaw right there, the word "likely", which automatically makes it a guess, otherwise they would have used the word "definitely", which they didn't, because, like you, they're just arrogantly assuming that over 65s voted leave.

And even "if" the elderly in the main did vote for Brexit, so what? Obviously you don't believe in the basic fundamental democratic principle of one person, one vote - ie, everyone's vote is equal, without prejudice, regardless of their colour, gender, race, religious beliefs, sexual preference, or their age.

Edited June 29, 2022 by So Far Away

[itsnotoutthere]

"The most dramatic split is along the lines of education."  When you say that no doubt your are thinking learned professors with a lifetime of knowledge, I'm thinking twenty somethings with a degree in gender studies or urban planning. Ever stopped to think that the reason the older generation voted to leave is because they are the ones with the actual experience of the 'workings' of the EU.

Edited June 29, 2022 by itsnotoutthere

[So Far Away]

39 minutes ago, The Silver Shroud said:

If you look at the YouGov survey I posted, you might get a clue as to why the over 65s voted as they did. Lack of education, indoctrination by the Murdoch media, and the idiot Farage expoiting populism  all played a large part.

I certainly don't recall anybody asking me what qualifications I had when I went to cast my vote. Here's a novel idea: Maybe the reason people voted to Leave the EU, was because they just actually wanted to Leave the EU. How about that.!!

Edited June 29, 2022 by So Far Away

[itsnotoutthere]

24 minutes ago, The Silver Shroud said:

Lol,we are all getting older, even 18 year olds are now in their mid twenties. If you look at the YouGov survey I posted, you might get a clue as to why the over 65s voted as they did. Lack of education, indoctrination by the Murdoch media, and the idiot Farage expoiting populism  all played a large part.

Farage wasn't the Prime Minister, it wasn't in his power to give the people a vote, it was the staunch remainer Cameron that allowed the people to vote, one of yours.

[Silver]

We can reduce the cost of fish fingers by 2%, says our Brexit Opportunities MInister. It has all been worth it! (If you overlook the 4% hit to GDP, border delays, overall immigration remaining the same but illegal immigration rocketing, and less money to spend on the NHS and defence).

Jacob Rees-Mogg's List Of Brexit Benefits Includes A Discount On Fish Fingers | HuffPost UK Politics (huffingtonpost.co.uk)

[Setton]

19 hours ago, OverSword said:

Quit bellyaching remoaners.  

Do can I assume you're never going to complain about anything Biden does ever again?

[Setton]

2 hours ago, So Far Away said:

Over-65s were more than twice as "likely" as under-25s to have voted to Leave the European Union"

And there's your flaw right there, the word "likely", which automatically makes it a guess, otherwise they would have used the word "definitely", which they didn't, because, like you, they're just arrogantly assuming that over 65s voted leave

You're not very familiar with stats are you?

[So Far Away]

39 minutes ago, Setton said:

You're not very familiar with stats are you?

Yes I am, but these aren't actual verifiable statistics, they're just assumptions based on guesswork, probably from a bunch of prejudiced Remoaners to justify to themselves why Remain LOST, that's it. So again, it's a guess.

I'm well under 65 as it is right now, and the vote was 6 years ago, so at the time of the vote I was closer to the 18 - 24 year old age group that apparently voted Remain, and yet I voted Leave, so where does that fit into your "stats" exactly?

And once again, even "if" the elderly in the main did vote for Brexit, so what? Why are you lot making such a big issue out of it anyway? Don't you believe in the basic fundamental democratic principle of one person, one vote - ie, everyone's vote is equal, without prejudice, regardless of their colour, gender, race, religious beliefs, sexual preference, or their age?

Edited June 29, 2022 by So Far Away

[Setton]

23 minutes ago, So Far Away said:

Yes I am, but these aren't actual verifiable statistics, they're just assumptions based on best guess, probably from a bunch of prejudiced Remoaners to justify to themselves why Remain LOST, that's it. So again, it's a guess.

Or, you know, based on the many, many, many surveys that have been done.

Quote

I'm well under 65 as it is right now, and the vote was 6 years ago, so at the time of the vote I was closer to the 18 - 24 year old age group that apparently voted Remain, and yet I voted Leave, so where does that fit into your "stats" exactly?

This would be where that word 'likely' comes in.

Quote

And once again, even "if" the elderly in the main did vote for Brexit, so what? Why are you lot making such a big issue out of it anyway? Don't you believe in the basic fundamental democratic principle of one person, one vote - ie, everyone's vote is equal, without prejudice, regardless of their colour, gender, race, religious beliefs, sexual preference, or their age?

I'll let others answer that because the only argument I'm making is that you don't understand very basic statistics or probabilistic language.

[So Far Away]

59 minutes ago, Setton said:

Or, you know, based on the many, many, many surveys that have been done.

And just out curiosity, how many surveys have you taken part in, because in all my years on this planet, I've taken part in precisely zero surveys, and even if I was to be contacted out of the blue tomorrow to take part in some random survey, do you honestly think I'm going to tell the truth and divulge personal information, age, qualifications etc to some random stranger? Hell no.

59 minutes ago, Setton said:

the only argument I'm making is that you don't understand very basic statistics or probabilistic language.

Here you go, quote: "A probabilistic method or model is based on the "theory" of "probability." https://www.statisticshowto.com/probabilistic/

Theory: noun. A supposition or a system of ideas intended to explain something. So a "theory" is just that, an idea that is intended to explain something, or, if you like, somebody's guess.

Probability: noun. The extent to which something is probable; the likelihood of something happening or being the case.

So somebody has just "guessed" that the majority of over 65s "likely" voted Leave, but that doesn't actually work in reality, because if the majority of over 65s had actually voted Leave, then leave would have won by an even larger margin, because more of the over 65s tend to vote anyway, whilst the younger generations tend not to bother, so the reality is that over 65s were just as likely to have voted Remain than to have voted Leave. The real truth is that it's the 24 - 64 year old age group that had the most influence, but let's just point the finger at the easiest target instead eh, the elderly.

Edited June 29, 2022 by So Far Away