Poll of polls show Brits have officially turned against Brexit

[+OverSword]

3 hours ago, Setton said:

Do can I assume you're never going to complain about anything Biden does ever again?

Find something I complained of specifically about Biden (beside being senile)

[Setton]

3 hours ago, So Far Away said:

And just out curiosity, how many surveys have you taken part in, because in all my years on this planet, I've taken part in precisely zero surveys, and even if I was to be contacted out of the blue tomorrow to take part in some random survey, do you honestly think I'm going to tell the truth and divulge personal information, age, qualifications etc to some random stranger? Hell no.

Here you go, quote: "A probabilistic method or model is based on the "theory" of "probability." https://www.statisticshowto.com/probabilistic/

Theory: noun. A supposition or a system of ideas intended to explain something. So a "theory" is just that, an idea that is intended to explain something, or, if you like, somebody's guess.

Probability: noun. The extent to which something is probable; the likelihood of something happening or being the case.

So somebody has just "guessed" that the majority of over 65s "likely" voted Leave, but that doesn't actually work in reality, because if the majority of over 65s had actually voted Leave, then leave would have won by an even larger margin, because more of the over 65s tend to vote anyway, whilst the younger generations tend not to bother, so the reality is that over 65s were just as likely to have voted Remain than to have voted Leave. The real truth is that it's the 24 - 64 year old age group that had the most influence, but let's just point the finger at the easiest target instead eh, the elderly.

Honestly, I don't even know where to start with this. Maybe Y2 maths lessons?

[Setton]

55 minutes ago, OverSword said:

Find something I complained of specifically about Biden (beside being senile)

Doesn't matter if he's senile, the people elected him. Quit bellyaching.

[+OverSword]

12 minutes ago, Setton said:

Doesn't matter if he's senile, the people elected him. Quit bellyaching.

Quote my bellyache or ever denying he was lawfully elected.  He won, I live with it unlike remoaners and brexit who just can't get over that others felt differently than they did and they lost

[Duke Wellington]

8 hours ago, The Silver Shroud said:

Good Lord! I have never read anything so stupid. The vote has been analyzed almost to death, the demographics are widely known. This is so nonsensical I haven't bothered to read the rest of your post.

No one came to my door and asked how I voted.

So how do they know what demographic I am?

[itsnotoutthere]

36 minutes ago, Setton said:

Doesn't matter if he's senile, the people elected him. Quit bellyaching.

Really? wow.

[Duke Wellington]

20 minutes ago, itsnotoutthere said:

Really? wow.

When the mid-terms of over they will claim Biden went from the most votes in history to the least.

But everyone really knows he went from the least to the least lol.

[Silver]

41 minutes ago, Cookie Monster said:

No one came to my door and asked how I voted.

So how do they know what demographic I am?

Good question! And also, how do people know how many viewers watch a particular programme? -Netflix claim 495 million people have viewed 13 Reasons Why- but they didn't ask me,and i didn't, so the true number is 494,999,999!  The people conducting surveys are just making up numbers!

[Setton]

28 minutes ago, itsnotoutthere said:

Really? wow.

Just using OS's logic back to him.

[Duke Wellington]

1 minute ago, The Silver Shroud said:

Good question! And also, how do people know how many viewers watch a particular programme? -Netflix claim 495 million people have viewed 13 Reasons Why- but they didn't ask me,and i didn't, so the true number is 494,999,999!  The people conducting surveys are just making up numbers!

I`m not old, I`m not poor, I`m not uneducated, I voted Brexit.

Vive la Britannia! Hau ab die Franco-Prussian reich!

[+OverSword]

45 minutes ago, Setton said:

Just using OS's logic back to him.

No you're not.  Biden was elected and I never said otherwise nor complained.  Remoaners are more like trump supporters in that they think they won or know better.  Tell me your address and I'll send you a MAGA hat in the mail 

[+OverSword]

48 minutes ago, The Silver Shroud said:

Good question! And also, how do people know how many viewers watch a particular programme? -Netflix claim 495 million people have viewed 13 Reasons Why- but they didn't ask me,and i didn't, so the true number is 494,999,999!  The people conducting surveys are just making up numbers!

Poor comparison as NetFlix can see who streamed what program.

[So Far Away]

3 hours ago, Setton said:

Honestly, I don't even know where to start with this. Maybe Y2 maths lessons?

Go on, give it a try, because your mathematic formula cannot possibly explain how my 70 year old neighbour on one side voted Leave and my 75 year old neighbour on the other side voted Remain.

Edited June 29, 2022 by So Far Away

[Silver]

2 hours ago, OverSword said:

Poor comparison as NetFlix can see who streamed what program.

Good point! I was trying to show that with a large enough sample you get a pretty accurate result. But as you say, the streaming services count every viewer. I was trying to be a clever clogs but came unstuck!

[Setton]

13 hours ago, So Far Away said:

Go on, give it a try, because your mathematic formula cannot possibly explain how my 70 year old neighbour on one side voted Leave and my 75 year old neighbour on the other side voted Remain.

Of course it can.

You have two bags of marbles (having apparently lost some...).

In one bag, there are 10 red and 2 blue. You pick one at random. It is more likely to be red than blue, yes?

In the other bag, there are 10 blue and 2 red. You pick one at random. It is more likely to be blue than red.

However, it is still entirely possible to pick a blue from bag one and a red from bag two. 

Let's call bag one young voters and bag two old voters. Blue marbles are remain, red is leave.

As for your neighbours, pick two marbles from bag 2. Do you agree it's possible they are different colours?

[So Far Away]

33 minutes ago, Setton said:

Of course it can.

You have two bags of marbles (having apparently lost some...).

In one bag, there are 10 red and 2 blue. You pick one at random. It is more likely to be red than blue, yes?

In the other bag, there are 10 blue and 2 red. You pick one at random. It is more likely to be blue than red.

However, it is still entirely possible to pick a blue from bag one and a red from bag two. 

Let's call bag one young voters and bag two old voters. Blue marbles are remain, red is leave.

As for your neighbours, pick two marbles from bag 2. Do you agree it's possible they are different colours?

That's a load of absolute nonsense and you know it, because there wasn't 12 choices on the Ballot Paper, there were only 2, 'Leave' or 'Remain' (so maybe it's you that has lost some of your marbles...).

Going back to your bags of marbles scenario.

You have one bag of marbles (having apparently lost the other bag of marbles altogether...).

In that bag, there is 1 red marble and 1 blue marble. You pick one at random. Is it more likely to be red than blue? No.

47 minutes ago, Setton said:

Let's call bag one young voters and bag two old voters. Blue marbles are remain, red is leave.

 

Why? Doing it that way you're already preassigning young voters the bag with the most blue (remain) marbles in it before anybody has actually picked (at random) their marble out of the bag, which is hardly scientific is it, and it certainly wouldn't hold up to any peer reviewed scrutiny, because you've already made up your own mind beforehand that young voters are the bag with the most blue (remain) marbles.

 

[Setton]

1 hour ago, So Far Away said:

That's a load of absolute nonsense and you know it, because there wasn't 12 choices on the Ballot Paper, there were only 2, 'Leave' or 'Remain' (so maybe it's you that has lost some of your marbles...).

Going back to your bags of marbles scenario.

You have one bag of marbles (having apparently lost the other bag of marbles altogether...).

In that bag, there is 1 red marble and 1 blue marble. You pick one at random. Is it more likely to be red than blue? No.

The marbles represent voters, not options. The colours are the options (hence 2 colours).

I have taught this probability lesson to 7 year olds who had no problem understanding it.

Quote

Why? Doing it that way you're already preassigning young voters the bag with the most blue (remain) marbles in it 

Because that's how surveys show people voted.

['Walt' E. Kurtz]

Im not surpriced i knew it would be  bad for the British economy. 

 

[So Far Away]

23 minutes ago, Setton said:

The marbles represent voters, not options. The colours are the options (hence 2 colours).

You're deliberately loading your ridiculous bag of marbles scenario a certain way in order to give you the outcome that you want.

You're saying that the bag with the 10 blue (remain) marbles and the 2 red (leave) marbles in it represents young voters, so of course the likely outcome will be that they will pick a blue marble, because there's more blue marbles in the bag to begin with. Guess what, if you give that same bag to old voters and tell them to pick a marble out of the bag, the likely outcome will be that they will also pick a blue marble, because again, there's more blue marbles in the bag to begin with.

24 minutes ago, Setton said:

Because that's how surveys show people voted.

And once again, just out curiosity, how many surveys have you taken part in, because in all my years on this planet, I've taken part in precisely zero surveys, and even if I was to be contacted out of the blue tomorrow to take part in some random survey, do you honestly think I'm going to tell the truth and divulge personal information, age, qualifications etc to some random stranger? Hell no.

[Setton]

9 hours ago, So Far Away said:

You're deliberately loading your ridiculous bag of marbles scenario a certain way in order to give you the outcome that you want.

Or, you know, based on the many, many surveys with very clear methodologies you probably don't understand.

Quote

You're saying that the bag with the 10 blue (remain) marbles and the 2 red (leave) marbles in it represents young voters, so of course the likely outcome will be that they will pick a blue marble, because there's more blue marbles in the bag to begin with. Guess what, if you give that same bag to old voters and tell them to pick a marble out of the bag, the likely outcome will be that they will also pick a blue marble, because again, there's more blue marbles in the bag to begin with.

So we can add analogies along with probability to the list of things you don't understand.

Quote

And once again, just out curiosity, how many surveys have you taken part in, because in all my years on this planet, I've taken part in precisely zero surveys, and even if I was to be contacted out of the blue tomorrow to take part in some random survey, do you honestly think I'm going to tell the truth and divulge personal information, age, qualifications etc to some random stranger? Hell no.

Several. Surveys look for a representative sample. Again, this is probability so maybe a bit beyond you but if a survey has a sample size of 10,000 you're still very unlikely to be in there.

[So Far Away]

1 hour ago, Setton said:

Or, you know, based on the many, many surveys with very clear methodologies you probably don't understand.

So we can add analogies along with probability to the list of things you don't understand.

Several. Surveys look for a representative sample. Again, this is probability so maybe a bit beyond you but if a survey has a sample size of 10,000 you're still very unlikely to be in there.

Yes, but in your scenario you have an equal amount of younger voters as older voters, whereas we already know that most of the older age group tend to vote anyway regardless, whilst a lot more of the younger age group tend not to bother voting at all, so in your ridiculous bag of marbles scenario the younger age group (and therefore their vote) is being heavily over represented, so you need to reduce the amount of younger voters, because in reality, even though you have already preassigned the bag with the most blue marbles in it to young people, many of them simply wouldn't even bother turning up for the draw to pick a marble out of the bag in the first place. Again, this is an actual fact, so maybe a bit beyond you

Edited June 30, 2022 by So Far Away

[Ozymandias]

Interesting analysis by Prof. Danny Dorling of Oxford of the voting patterns of people in Britain during the 2016 Referendum. He gave a lecture about it to the Institute of Liberal Arts and Sciences on 20 May 2019. The relevant part begins at the 30.00 minute point of his lecture where he demonstrates that the UK left the EU because the south of England (excluding London) voted to leave and that the so-called 'Red Wall' north had little effect.

But there is an important graphic at 24.00 showing how young and old voted.

The Leave vote won by 634,612 votes over Remain. I wonder if the 'Red Wall' constituencies voted Remain instead of Leave would Leave still have won. Anyway, even though some of you may have already seen it on Youtube, it is interesting to revisit it, so here is the link:  

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by Ozymandias

[Golden Duck]

On 6/30/2022 at 3:00 AM, Cookie Monster said:

When the mid-terms of over they will claim Biden went from the most votes in history to the least.

But everyone really knows he went from the least to the least lol.

You do understand that Biden is not part of Congress, don't you?

Mid term results "aren't his".

Edited July 1, 2022 by Golden Duck

[So Far Away]

26 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Interesting analysis by Prof. Danny Dorling of Oxford of the voting patterns of people in Britain during the 2016 Referendum. He gave a lecture about it to the Institute of Liberal Arts and Sciences on 20 May 2019. The relevant part begins at the 30.00 minute point of his lecture where he demonstrates that the UK left the EU because the south of England (excluding London) voted to leave and that the so-called 'Red Wall' north had little effect.

But there is an important graphic at 24.00 showing how young and old voted.

The Leave vote won by 634,612 votes over Remain. I wonder if the 'Red Wall' constituencies voted Remain instead of Leave would Leave still have won. Anyway, even though some of you may have already seen it on Youtube, it is interesting to revisit it, so here is the link:  

 

You can carry on dissecting this one single vote forever, (why anybody does is a total mystery to me) and you can speculate what would have happened "if" all you want, but ultimately, it makes zero difference, because the reason why the UK left the EU was because more people across the whole of the UK voted to Leave the EU than voted to Remain in the EU, it's as simple as that.

The Brexit Vote was the perfect demonstration that in the UK it was "one person, one vote" - the total vote applied - not individual regions, counties, constituencies, streets... or devolved nations. It was the UK *as a whole.*

[So Far Away]

50 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

The Leave vote won by 634,612 votes over Remain.

No it didn't. The Leave vote won by 1,269,501 votes over Remain.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7639/

Edited July 1, 2022 by So Far Away