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Russia warns humanity at risk ( Possible Nuclear War ) if West seeks to punish it over Ukraine


Grim Reaper 6
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2 hours ago, Katniss said:

And are you going to go into Russia and arrest him if he gets convicted? If you do, while you are at it, travel over to North Korea and arrest Kim Jong-un for his convicted crimes against humanity to.  :lol: Good luck!

Edit; corrected word usage.

 

Sorry- what is your point? 

 

Putin is locked in a purpose made bunker right now. Biden has said he wants putin to be removed as leader of Russia. 

I imagine Putin is very worried about his safety and even false alarms may lead to him pulling the trigger on his trump card. Or was there some other "peaceful" way to remove Putin?

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13 hours ago, Katniss said:

 

True. But irrational people do not often continuously makes threats for long periods of time. They lose their patience very soon an shoot or stab without very little warning. I don't see him taking the risk, because after he lost taking over Kyviv an failed killing the Ukraine leader, I think he would have launched nukes in the Ukraine by now,  but he wants to obviously preserve land and get what he thinks is Soviet lands back.

I won't bother believing it or be worried about it. It's all talk as far as I'm concerned. Bluffing.

 

Honestly I could care less either way, my expiration date expired in the 1990s I am not suppose to be alive I am living in barrowed time so what's ever left is cool and it were to happen I will die with my only love so what's better than that we have had full lives!:tu:

My only concern is what we leaving behind for the next generation, it's a horrible fricken mess. This is my only worldly regret!

Peace! 

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15 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

The problem with that, joc, is that we are inferring probability from a standpoint of rationality. We assume that Putin is rational enough to not actually do it, and we assume that each and every one of the nuclear commanders would reject orders to launch nukes. Based on Putin’s actions and rhetoric, there is a marked decline in rationality, and am increase in aggressive and rash behaviour.

I have been saying this since February 24th - we can not look at Putin from an angle of rationality anymore. He is not that rational persona that he projected to the world - he is a narcissistic personality who also seems to be displaying traits of psychosis, slowly. His paranoia is increasing, and he is becoming more isolated. This, to me, increases the chances of him initiating a nuclear strike. 

You actually do make a very good point.  The point is, Don't ever underestimate your enemy.   Another good point is, never 'assume' anything.  

My bad is that I am assuming something I have no way of knowing...the mental framework of a madman.  And anyone that would just do what Putin has done in Ukraine in this day and age and think he can just do it consequence free is a mad man.  

So, I am assuming ...never assume anything.   Another point is that if it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck.  When someone threatens the world with nuclear destruction for crimes they are committing in front of the world, blatantly...what else can you call that except delusional and psychotic.  

The problem too is that left alone...he might start throwing nukes for no other reason than paranoia...and anything anyone at this point does to deter his plans will only feed that paranoia.  And if he is that paranoid...he is a very dangerous man even to his own inner circle...and we know what deranged psychopaths do to their inner circles when they become paranoid.  Look no further than North Korea. 

But on a brighter side.  What is the point of worrying about a nuclear war?  It's not like if there isn't one you aren't going to die.  And you don't know when and you don't know how.    You might find yourself on a bank of a river in Purgatory thinking, well we didn't have a nuclear war but...gee whiz...I wish I had known that steak was full of salmaonella....

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4 hours ago, Knob Oddy said:

Sorry- what is your point? 

 

Putin is locked in a purpose made bunker right now. Biden has said he wants putin to be removed as leader of Russia. 

I imagine Putin is very worried about his safety and even false alarms may lead to him pulling the trigger on his trump card. Or was there some other "peaceful" way to remove Putin?

They have enough evidence against Kim Jong-un to convict him of crimes against humanity, but they can't get him and they probably never will. So it will probably be the same for Putin and I imagine he is smart enough to know that. So the point is, who the heck is going to go into those two heavily armed massive countries and arrest them to bring them both before a international court to be convicted of their crimes? You? Me? The E.U.? The U.S.? I don't think so.

And it doesn't matter what Biden said. He is talking for political virtue, but knows it won't happen, because they can't even get Kim Jong-un.

4 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

Honestly I could care less either way, my expiration date expired in the 1990s I am not suppose to be alive I am living in barrowed time so what's ever left is cool and it were to happen I will die with my only love so what's better than that we have had full lives!:tu:

My only concern is what we leaving behind for the next generation, it's a horrible fricken mess. This is my only worldly regret!

Peace! 

Umm, yes, please don't take this the wrong way, Manwon, but I think making this thread may be causing some members on UM strong anxiety. I'm not sure you should have posted this. :hmm:

4 hours ago, joc said:

But on a brighter side.  What is the point of worrying about a nuclear war?  It's not like if there isn't one you aren't going to die.  And you don't know when and you don't know how.    You might find yourself on a bank of a river in Purgatory thinking, well we didn't have a nuclear war but...gee whiz...I wish I had known that steak was full of salmaonella....

Once I ate undercooked chicken, and I got really bad salmonella poison from it. I felt like I was in purgatory, bathroom toilet purgatory. :lol:

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17 minutes ago, Katniss said:

They have enough evidence against Kim Jong-un to convict him of crimes against humanity, but they can't get him and they probably never will. So it will probably be the same for Putin and I imagine he is smart enough to know that. So the point is, who the heck is going to go into those two heavily armed massive countries and arrest them to bring them both before a international court to be convicted of their crimes? You? Me? The E.U.? The U.S.? I don't think so.

And it doesn't matter what Biden said. He is talking for political virtue, but knows it won't happen, because they can't even get Kim Jong-un.

Umm, yes, please don't take this the wrong way, Manwon, but I think making this thread may be causing some members on UM strong anxiety. I'm not sure you should have posted this. :hmm:

Once I ate undercooked chicken, and I got really bad salmonella poison from it. I felt like I was in purgatory, bathroom toilet purgatory. :lol:

I believe your correct, however I also don’t believe in living in a sound proof bubble! There is nothing posted that doesn’t accurately reflect the current situation in the World at this moment and true fear / anxiety come from a lack of information not from facing the current situation,  adjusting to it and living every moment of our lives with all we have.

By not facing this situation, a special phone call may never be made, or someone may never tell another they love them because they never realized how short our time on Earth may actually be. So please don’t take my comments the wrong way, until you have faced your possible expiration date and walked away from it you will never know how valuable, precious and short life actually is!:yes:

As far as my posting this thread no one is chained to this thread just don’t participate in it if someone is bothered by it that much! Then be sure to turn off the news, the TV,  your computer and especially your cell phone because sincerely this thread is about reality as it stands right now and by listening to any of those devices above will certainly insure that they are exposed to the same information that is being disseminated in this thread!:yes:

Sincerely have a wonderful day or evening where ever you are Katniss and there is no disrespect intended to anyone reading these comments, and Katniss thanks for your thoughts on this subject!:tu:

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Knob Oddy said:

Sorry- what is your point? 

 

Putin is locked in a purpose made bunker right now. Biden has said he wants putin to be removed as leader of Russia.

No he certainly is not locked a bunker right now, because I can see him as we speak through my sight!:yes:

6 hours ago, Knob Oddy said:

I imagine Putin is very worried about his safety and even false alarms may lead to him pulling the trigger on his trump card. Or was there some other "peaceful" way to remove Putin?

You seem to miss the entire point of what’s going right now, settle down! The entire point of this is not have the West remove Putin, but to have his own Government take him out, that’s the Peaceful manner in which to remove Putin!:D Also I have no idea what trigger your talking about, but if you think he has a trigger where he can launch Russias Nuclear ☢️ Weapons it doesn’t work like that there is no trigger! The Nuclear use authority belongs to no single individual, it takes small groups of people to launch a countries Nuclear Arsenal this is not Hollywood my friend!:yes:

Oh and by the way, if one individual in one of those small groups doesn’t do his assign task the Thermal Nuclear Missiles and thrum warheads don’t launch!:yes: 

Edited by Manwon Lender
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18 hours ago, spartan max2 said:

Humanity has always been doomed if sanctions is all it takes to trigger nuclear war 

Your spot on my friend, but it’s much more than sanctions! Because of his failure in the opening days of the battle and his continued personal and equipment loses he has lost face on a global level. This is almost as bad to many Russians as 1989-1990 when the Soviet Union collapsed, and Putin is one those Russians. He wanted to be the next Stalin, and now he nothing but a has been dictator and we all know how countries dispose of failed has been dictators, with a loud bang in the back if the head, or some Nerve Agent would also be fitting either way it will come from his own people and that’s best!:tu:

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Katniss said:

Umm, yes, please don't take this the wrong way, Manwon, but I think making this thread may be causing some members on UM strong anxiety. I'm not sure you should have posted this. :hmm:

I don't know where you are seeing this "strong anxiety". Perhaps some of these posts are invoking some kind of anxiety within you?

Edited by Nuclear Wessel
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27 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

I don't know where you are seeing this "strong anxiety". Perhaps some of these posts are invoking some kind of anxiety within you?

I suspect that may be true!

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This song goes out to everyone who may sincerely have fear or anxiety from this thread listen to it and read the lyrics it may help you focus on what’s really important in times like these!:tu:

 

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18 minutes ago, Manwon Lender said:

This song goes out to everyone who may sincerely have fear or anxiety from this thread listen to it and read the lyrics it may help you focus on what’s really important in times like these!:tu:

 

I can certainly understand why some people would experience anxiety, around these topics - to confront one’s mortality, especially when you have no control over it, is not exactly a pleasant prospect.

There is no point in being anxious about things that are not in your control, though. Control the controllables.

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Just now, Nuclear Wessel said:

I can certainly understand why some people would experience anxiety, around these topics - to confront one’s mortality, especially when you have no control over it, is not exactly a pleasant prospect.

There is no point in being anxious about things that are not in your control, though. Control the controllables.

Well with the mass murder in the US and Genocide occurring around the world may a Nuclear ☢️ exchange on small scale will bring sanity back to the Human race, something needs to and fast. The Doomsday Clock is at 18 seconds to midnight and it's never been there since it was first started!:yes:

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1 hour ago, Manwon Lender said:

Well with the mass murder in the US and Genocide occurring around the world may a Nuclear ☢️ exchange on small scale will bring sanity back to the Human race, something needs to and fast. The Doomsday Clock is at 18 seconds to midnight and it's never been there since it was first started!:yes:

Which doomsday clock are you referring to? The one that I looked at shows 100 seconds to midnight. 

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2 hours ago, Manwon Lender said:

Well with the mass murder in the US and Genocide occurring around the world may a Nuclear ☢️ exchange on small scale will bring sanity back to the Human race, something needs to and fast. The Doomsday Clock is at 18 seconds to midnight and it's never been there since it was first started!:yes:

Don't particularly want nukes to be used but I do think our species could do with a cull tbh. Sounds horrible but we haven't reached global overpopulation  yet there's just mess everywhere.

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A few thoughts that may reduce anxiety - or just skip right to the last sentence, it all comes down to that one last sentence: 

Russians who make decisions know that their own, Russian propaganda is a lie. They know the West wouldn't be helpless and annihilated with unstoppable nuclear force that would destroy entire continents, they know there absolutely would be retaliatory strike by the West, no matter how successful or not successful Russian initial strike turns out to be.

(Russian propaganda for domestic use keep boasting with Russian ability to destroy half of the world and they never mention any consequences for Russia. Westerners misunderstood that Russians are being prepared to die in nuclear fire. They're not. They are being told that Russia can incapacitate the West, thus preventing retaliatory strike. But those who create propaganda and make decisions know it's bull**** and they'd burn worse than West, in case they start a nuclear exchange.)

So the Russian propaganda, which you can read in this site too, aims at creating fear of "mighty" Russia, which can end your life as it pleases. It can't. Russia can attempt to kill you and get leveled with the ground in retaliatory strike. They're shameless manipulators to the point of sounding insane, but they're not insane, they are simply trying to manipulate you by fear.   

Russian nukes are indeed more numerous, but their functionality is dubious. One of the reasons why war against Ukraine was a gigantic mistake is that we all saw that Russian propaganda image has nothing to do with the true state of their military, in every segment (no brains, no logistics, no truly modern weapons, no motivation... ). 

Also, not every Russian is a putlerian moron. There are plenty of kind and sane Russians, who have to stay silent in order to stay alive and out of prison. It's impossible to know how many Russians in key positions are actually normal people who wouldn't do their part of procedure for launching nuclear weapons. 

 

Some people are simply responsible individuals and they take nuclear anything, especially threats, seriously. I can't object to that. 

But they can relax. Besides propaganda screeching, there was no sign so far that Russians are actually preparing a nuclear attack. Maybe such sign wouldn't be publicly advertised, but the West would let Russians know they've been noticed and the response is ready.   

As long as Russians know there will be the response they won't even try. (If western stance regarding Ukraine was limp, then there would be an actual chance for Putin to nuke Kyiv or something.) 

 

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I see this as a possible opportunity for change and the inevitable resistance to change from those benefitting most from the current world order.

The current world order seems based on authoritarian states with authoritarian leaders that can threaten and dominate weaker neighbors. It is dominated by the we versus them attitude that has brought internal cohesion to conquering nations throughout history.  The evangelical radical right seems well content with this order of things.

Now we have smaller weaker nations standing together and saying, "Not this time" to the big authoritarian bully. If they prevail, it does change the world.  I am glad the US supports their efforts, even if it is for our own political reasons.

5 hours ago, ThereWeAreThen said:

Don't particularly want nukes to be used but I do think our species could do with a cull tbh. Sounds horrible but we haven't reached global overpopulation  yet there's just mess everywhere.

I don't think you can reduce population without  challenging authoritarian states and their supporters.

Individuals may decide not to have more children than they desire or can afford, That may be none in some cases.  Many individuals, especially among the young are aware of the effects of humanity on climate, and may want a smaller more sustainable population.

Authoritarian states need women to be brood mares because they need more soldiers.

Mega-corporations that control so much of the world economy need population growth to keep  demand for their products and the stock market growing.

Change would upset the apple carts for authoritarian states, mega-corporations, and mega-churches.  They will use every trick they can to stifle or delay it.  That includes engendering fear and anger in the populace of many nations.

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DAILY UPDATE FROM THE NUCLEAR ☢️ REGULATORY COMMISSION  

LOSS OF NATIONAL WARNING SYSTEM TOWER


"On 7/7/2022, at 0740 CDT, the National Weather Service reported to Cooper Nuclear Station that the NAWAS [(National Warning System)] radio tower near Shubert, Nebraska would neither transmit nor receive. The Shubert Tower transmitter activates the EAS [(Emergency Alert System)]/Tone Alert Radios used for public notification. Additional information from the National Weather Service received 7/7/2022 at 1601 [CDT] determined that the Shubert Tower transmitter is non-functional and would not likely be repaired within 24 hours. The backup notification system has been verified to be available throughout this period.

"This is considered to be a major loss of the Public Prompt Notification System capability. The primary notification system is not expected to be restored to service within 24 hours, and therefore this condition is reportable under 10 CFR 50.72(b)(3)(xiii), since the backup alerting methods do not meet the primary system design objective. The backup notification system is available to use for notifications if needed.


https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/event-status/event/en.html

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Posted (edited)

IAEA
International Atomic Energy Agency Update

Nuclear Proliferation and the IAEA’s Indispensable Job Bolstering International Security in a Changed World: IAEA Director General Delivers 2022 John Gee Memorial Lecture:

Mr Grossi delivered the 2022 John Gee Memorial Lecture, speaking about the past and present proliferation tendencies. He also spoke about the IAEA’s work in the areas of nuclear safety and helping countries to prevent, detect and respond to acts and threats of nuclear terrorism; the role of nuclear power in avoiding emissions that cause climate change and air pollution, and the life-saving benefits of nuclear science and technology.

Mr Grossi gave an overview of the ways in which the IAEA is assisting Ukraine’s nuclear facilities operator and regulator, both remotely through its Incident and Emergency Centre and through on-the-ground missions in the country. The lecture was organized by the Australian National University in honour of the late Australian diplomat John Gee. Watch the recording here. Mr Grossi’s presentation was followed by a question and answer session, which begins at the 26-minute mark of the 40-minute video.

 

Edited by Manwon Lender
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THE RISK OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Despite the end of the Cold War over two decades ago, humanity still has an estimated 13,410 nuclear weapons. Some of these are hundreds of times more powerful than those that obliterated Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and they may be able to create a decade-long nuclear winter that could kill most people on Earth. Yet the superpowers plan to invest over a trillion dollars upgrading their nuclear arsenals, which many experts believe increases the risk of nuclear proliferation, nuclear terrorism, and accidental nuclear war.

What do the experts worry about?

Common concerns span the spectrum from a nuclear terrorist attack against a single city, potentially killing millions of people, to all-out global nuclear war, potentially killing billions. Most experts agree that the average person is more likely to succumb to nuclear war than nuclear terrorism. Nuclear war can potentially kill 1000 times more people than a nuclear terrorist attack (billions rather than millions), but it is certainly not 1000 times less likely than nuclear terrorism. Plus, given the many near-misses that have already occurred, a nuclear war is more likely than many people realize.

How many people would all-out nuclear war kill?

Scientists continue to discover new lethal effects of nuclear war, so it is hard to be confident that we now know them all. First, the radiation risks were underestimated. Victims in the US have received over $2 billion in compensation for radiation exposure that resulted from nuclear testing and uranium handling. Then it was discovered that the electromagnetic pulse from a high-altitude detonation could potentially damage electronics and power grids across thousands of kilometers. A 1979 report by the US Government estimated that all-out war would kill 28%-88% of Americans and 22%-50% of Soviets (150-450 million people with today’s populations), but this was before the risk of nuclear winter was discovered in the 1980’s.

See link for more information: https://futureoflife.org/background/the-risk-of-nuclear-weapons/

 

 

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Shadow of the bomb: Russia’s nuclear threats
 

After Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin declared on 24 April that Russia needs to be weakened to the point that it could not bully its neighbours, President Joe Biden wrote in the New York Times that the US would not use the war to inflict more damage on Russia than was necessary to halt the invasion. This prompted widespread speculation about whether the war aims of the White House differed from those of the state and defence departments.

Fear of nuclear escalation is even more apparent in some western European capitals than in Washington. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated in April that “there must not be a nuclear war” as a defence of his reluctance to supply Ukraine with heavy weapons. He decided that Germany would only deliver certain systems – main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles – to its eastern European allies so that they could provide Soviet-era systems to Ukraine. Militarily, these swap deals make no sense, as they only delay assistance to Ukraine and provide it with inferior materiel!

However, these fears are unjustified. Nuclear warfare against Ukraine makes no sense. A single nuclear strike would not alter the military balance in the war. The use of multiple nuclear weapons would do so, but would also inflict huge and lasting damage on Russia. Nuclear attacks on a NATO country would begin escalation that Russia could not control. And the Russian military would be unable to respond to any other contingency, because it would be bogged down in Ukraine. Russia could only respond to retaliation for a nuclear strike with further nuclear escalation – which would be suicidal. Putin is certainly not concerned with morals or ethics, but he is far from crazy or suicidal.

One could always have anticipated that Putin would use a nuclear scare to influence the West’s position. However, it is surprising how successful his approach has been. This is the first time a state has used the threat of nuclear weapons to engage in a colonial conflict or a war of expansion. France did not threaten to use nuclear weapons against states that backed Algerian nationalists or the Viet Minh. Nor did the United Kingdom threaten Argentina in this way during the Falklands war. The Soviet Union did not resort to nuclear threats during its Afghanistan campaign. Nor did the US in Vietnam, Iraq, or Korea. None of the diplomats who negotiated the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) – be they Western, Soviet, or non-aligned – appeared to consider that a state would use nuclear threats as cover for expansion into the territory of a non-nuclear state.

see the link fir further information: https://ecfr.eu/article/shadow-of-the-bomb-russias-nuclear-threats/

 

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Global Peace Needs a Clear U.S. Reply to Putin’s Nuclear Threat

Ideas for ending Russia’s Ukraine war must sustain deterrence against nuclear or chemical attack

 

As signs increase that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is failing to achieve President Vladimir Putin’s goals, he has hinted menacingly at using a chemical or nuclear weapon. This leads some western analysts to suggest offering Putin a face-saving exit from his crisis. That would be a simplistic answer to a complex challenge, rather than the finely balanced response that is needed. Worse, it would be dangerous, signaling to governments worldwide that armed aggression — especially with weapons of mass destruction at hand — is a sure path to wielding international power.

Some U.S. analysts worry that humiliation for Putin will lead to Russian use of chemical or nuclear weapons — and so the West should allow him a face-saving way out of his predicament. While diplomacy should as always avoid any needless risk of escalating conflict, the reality is that Russian use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine remains unlikely. Despite Russian rhetoric, CIA Director William Burns assured Congress last month that the United States was seeing no “practical evidence” suggesting Russia is preparing nuclear weapons for imminent use.

It is unclear what Russia would actually gain by using nuclear weapons. The Kremlin is arguing at home that it is fighting to protect the lives of Russian-speakers in Ukraine. Russian forces are fighting in the areas Russia has indicated it wants to annex. Using a nuclear weapon on that battlefield would threaten the very lives Russia says it is defending.

Russia could seek to intimidate Ukraine and its supporters by detonating a small nuclear weapon. But indications suggest that Putin’s saber-rattling already is frightening Russians themselves. A “demonstration strike” in Ukraine poses a risk to Putin of further alarming, and dividing, the Russian elites via which he exercises power. Finally, Russian military and nuclear doctrine limits a Russian use of nuclear weapons to two situations: responding to the use of a weapon of mass destruction against Russia or its allies, or when conventional warfare threatens Russian nuclear command and control or the existence of the state itself. The war in Ukraine presents no such case.

See link for more information: https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/05/global-peace-needs-clear-us-reply-putins-nuclear-threat

 

 

 

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Russia to send Belarus nuclear-capable missiles within months, as G7 leaders gather in Germany


Russia will deliver missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads to Belarus in the coming months, President Vladimir Putin has said as he received Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.

“In the coming months, we will transfer to Belarus Iskander-M tactical missile systems, which can use ballistic or cruise missiles, in their conventional and nuclear versions,” Putin said in a broadcast on Russian television at the start of his meeting with Lukashenko in St Petersburg on Saturday.

Putin has several times referred to nuclear weapons since his country launched a military operation in Ukraine on 24 February, in what the west has seen as a warning not to intervene. Lukashenko said last month that his country had bought Iskander nuclear-capable missiles and S-400 anti-aircraft anti-missile systems from Russia.
 
The development came on the eve of a meeting of G7 leaders in Germany on Sunday, to be hosted by Chancellor Olaf Scholz in the Bavarian alps, which is set to be dominated by Ukraine and its far-reaching consequences, from energy shortages to a food crisis.

The G7 leaders are expected to seek to show a united front on supporting Ukraine for as long as necessary and cranking up pressure on the Kremlin – although they will want to avoid sanctions that could stoke inflation and exacerbate the global cost-of-living crisis.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/26/russia-to-send-belarus-nuclear-capable-missiles-within-months-as-g7-leaders-gather-in-germany

 

 

 

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