We can find alien life within 25 years, claims astrophysicist

[Piney]

7 minutes ago, Hammerclaw said:

In a universe of billions of galaxies I'm certain we're far from unique, as far as being an intelligent lifeform, at least. You should read Chinese author Cixin Liu's Three Body Problem trilogy. It's a disturbing even terrifying take on solving the Fermi Paradox. Think of the galaxy as a dark forest, where silence is the best defense against predation.

As far as being intelligent. We are probably not. As far as the shape of our bodies and we developed technology using fire. We probably are.

A lifeform using organic based technology on a super-habital planet has better odds of developing than we do though.

[Black Red Devil]

12 hours ago, joc said:

i just concur with what  @Piney said...

So let me just give you what the Rare Earth Hypothesis actually is:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis

In planetary astronomy and astrobiology, the Rare Earth hypothesis argues that the origin of life and the evolution of biological complexity such as sexually reproducing, multicellular organisms on Earth (and, subsequently, human intelligence) required an improbable combination of astrophysical and geological events and circumstances.

According to the hypothesis, complex extraterrestrial life is an improbable phenomenon and likely to be rare throughout the universe as a whole. The term "Rare Earth" originates from Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe (2000), a book by Peter Ward, a geologist and paleontologist, and Donald E. Brownlee, an astronomer and astrobiologist, both faculty members at the University of Washington.

Now, I don't know if Piney read the book ( I of course haven't, but I might now)...but I give credence to anything Piney says...because...he knows stuff...

but if you take into consideration the many, many things that had to happen for us to exist on Earth...including, and especially, the Asteroid death of the dinosaurs, as I have posted previously, the odds very well may be trillions to one that a planet with intelligent life exists anywhere in the universe.

Again, it isn't the number of galaxies existing in the universe...it is the odds that all of this could have come together in any one of them.  Without the Asteroid Destruction of the Dinosaurs we would most probably be a Lizard Planet at best.

 

Joc, you're a man that wears his heart on his sleeve.   I like that, but unfortunately I don't agree with what you concur (rare earth) although I do agree with your estimation of Piney. 

One of the most brilliant minds of out time, Stephen Hawkins, was a fairly strong believer in the Anthropic Principle, which, amongst many probabilities suggests that the universe is fine tuned for life existence (not just on earth).  It also states that there must be life to observe the universe otherwise it would not be known to exist.

They're just theories and until there's evidence that's all they are.

 

[Black Red Devil]

14 hours ago, Golden Duck said:

Great minds discuss ideas.

Average minds discuss events.

Small minds discuss people.

I'm assuming you're telling us you're the great mind?  Quite arrogant from someone who phrases things like a 16th century herald standing on a crate that nobody understands or bothers to listen to.

[+Desertrat56]

1 hour ago, Piney said:

As far as being intelligent. We are probably not. As far as the shape of our bodies and we developed technology using fire. We probably are.

A lifeform using organic based technology on a super-habital planet has better odds of developing than we do though.

That makes sense.  Life is not anomalous, we are and maybe we are some forgotten experiment.

[Golden Duck]

6 minutes ago, Black Red Devil said:

I'm assuming you're telling us you're the great mind?  Quite arrogant from someone who phrases things like a 16th century herald standing on a crate that nobody understands or bothers to listen to.

Hey, if you want to talk about me you should create a new topic.

[Black Red Devil]

14 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

Hey, if you want to talk about me you should create a new topic.

You should, you're the one telling us how great you are.

[Golden Duck]

9 minutes ago, Black Red Devil said:

You should, you're the one telling us how great you are.

That was your assumption.  Remember, you said it yourself. 

Then again, you also said you find me boring; but, here you are.  Your not credible, are you?

Small minds discuss people

 

[+Hammerclaw]

52 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

That makes sense.  Life is not anomalous, we are and maybe we are some forgotten experiment.

A planetary biome may have a life cycle wherein at reaching a certain advanced stage, evolves--for no better a term--an engineer species, capable of engineering themselves off planet and becoming the seeds of their world's biome spreading itself to other planets. If that's the case, humanity is just another species in a universal ecosystem of intelligent lifeforms.

[astrobeing]

17 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

Yes you did, more than once, sometimes subtily, but mainly bolstering your agenda.  Here's an example:

 

I presented facts. If you interpret that as meaning other life is unlikely then that is just your interpretation of the facts I presented.

17 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

What do you know how the conditions in the rest of the universe are based on our sketchy studies on 9 planets?

The same as any other person on this planet. See? To argue that life must be likely because we don't know much about other planets in the universe is an argument from ignorance.

17 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

 I mean, that's like a person walking into an asylum in a given city and saying the world is inhabited only by loonies.

Do you have an evidence that suggests that other solar systems are better for promoting life? I haven't found any yet. We do know some things about other solar systems and there are a lot of gas giants out there. There are also a lot of binary stars out there which make life as we know it harder to happen.

17 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

Without certainly no evidence I'll throw my coins towards the zillion chances there is a possibility there is life.  If that's OK with you.

Oh, that's OK with me. If you want to keep your hopes up then never learn about the history of the Earth because it will be very sobering. It was for me.

17 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

BTW, talking serious stuff, are you from Australia, from Queensland?  Obviously you can tell me to buzz off, but it seems to me anytime anyone says something about your posts, Golden Duck seems to interject and has you covered. 

So if someone agrees with me, then that means I've been to that person's city or country???

[Black Red Devil]

6 hours ago, astrobeing said:

I presented facts. If you interpret that as meaning other life is unlikely then that is just your interpretation of the facts I presented.

 

No, you're confusing yourself.  I'm leaving the door open to the possibility there could be life.

6 hours ago, astrobeing said:

 

The same as any other person on this planet. See? To argue that life must be likely because we don't know much about other planets in the universe is an argument from ignorance.

What?!!   The word ignorance actually means lack of knowledge or information, which is basically what is occuring when you propose YOUR theory that the sketchy study on 9 planets are a good example of what happens in the rest of the zillion galaxies in the universe.  

6 hours ago, astrobeing said:

Do you have an evidence that suggests that other solar systems are better for promoting life? I haven't found any yet. We do know some things about other solar systems and there are a lot of gas giants out there. There are also a lot of binary stars out there which make life as we know it harder to happen.

Ahhh, here it is, the evidence card. Banal, the professional debunker at his best trying to shunt another argument.  In case you still haven't worked it out, there is no valid argument for evidence either way.  Nobody has claimed evidence of existence elsewhere, just possibilities and yes, a probability based on the size of the universe and the only evidence we know.  You know, just theoretics which you and your studies or understanding on a couple of thousand giant planets from light years away are dubious about.  That's fine, that's your interpretation, just don't shove it down people's throats because nobody cares about your studies when there is enough zillion possibilites to make them believe differently.

 

Edited September 30, 2022 by Black Red Devil

[Black Red Devil]

7 hours ago, Golden Duck said:

That was your assumption.  Remember, you said it yourself. 

Then again, you also said you find me boring; but, here you are.  Your not credible, are you?

Small minds discuss people

 

[astrobeing]

17 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

No, you're confusing yourself.  I'm leaving the door open to the possibility there could be life.

You are completely confused! I never closed that door either.

17 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

What?!!   The word ignorance actually means lack of knowledge or information, which is basically what is occuring when you propose YOUR theory that the sketchy study on 9 planets are a good example of what happens in the rest of the zillion galaxies in the universe. 

Once again you're all confused because I never said it was a "good example". In fact I said exactly the opposite of what you just said. The information on our solar system is really all  the information we have on the planets in the universe therefore attempting to make a prediction from that small sample is, by definition, an argument out of ignorance.

17 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

Ahhh, here it is, the evidence card. Banal, the professional debunker at his best trying to shunt another argument.  In case you still haven't worked it out, there is no valid argument for evidence either way.

You got it!!!! Both possibilities of other life and of no other life in the universe are equally valid in the absence of evidence which is exactly what I have been saying the whole time.

I don't know why you spent all that time arguing about things that I didn't say.

17 hours ago, Black Red Devil said:

That's fine, that's your interpretation, just don't shove it down people's throats because nobody cares about your studies when there is enough zillion possibilites to make them believe differently.

How would a person "shove [an interpretation] down people's throats" by typing on a computer? That sounds like a hysterical reaction to someone disagreeing with you.

Followup question: how many is a zillion? I've never used this number professionally. I normally use the value of infinity or a value approaching infinity when I need a very large number.

[Occupational Hubris]

On 9/29/2022 at 9:06 PM, joc said:

i just concur with what  @Piney said...

So let me just give you what the Rare Earth Hypothesis actually is:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis

In planetary astronomy and astrobiology, the Rare Earth hypothesis argues that the origin of life and the evolution of biological complexity such as sexually reproducing, multicellular organisms on Earth (and, subsequently, human intelligence) required an improbable combination of astrophysical and geological events and circumstances.

According to the hypothesis, complex extraterrestrial life is an improbable phenomenon and likely to be rare throughout the universe as a whole. The term "Rare Earth" originates from Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe (2000), a book by Peter Ward, a geologist and paleontologist, and Donald E. Brownlee, an astronomer and astrobiologist, both faculty members at the University of Washington.

Now, I don't know if Piney read the book ( I of course haven't, but I might now)...but I give credence to anything Piney says...because...he knows stuff...

but if you take into consideration the many, many things that had to happen for us to exist on Earth...including, and especially, the Asteroid death of the dinosaurs, as I have posted previously, the odds very well may be trillions to one that a planet with intelligent life exists anywhere in the universe.

Again, it isn't the number of galaxies existing in the universe...it is the odds that all of this could have come together in any one of them.  Without the Asteroid Destruction of the Dinosaurs we would most probably be a Lizard Planet at best.

 

But then the issue again rises that we are the only example that we have to base this hyposthesis off,so we really don't have enough data to say if this is they way it must be for advanced life. 

[+joc]

1 hour ago, Occupational Hubris said:

But then the issue again rises that we are the only example that we have to base this hyposthesis off,so we really don't have enough data to say if this is they way it must be for advanced life. 

Well, I think that is exactly what @astrobeinghas been saying the entire thread.  I am just saying that evolution is a thing...and things evolve a certain way and that the death of the dinosaurs would have changed the path of that evolution entirely.   I think it is a rather valid point that the life on Earth is quite unique.

Notwithstanding, How completely incredibly stupid is it for the Pointed Astrological Heads that think such things as the one in the OP...to think that any life can be found in 25 years?

To think that intelligent life must have at some point invented the radio...kind of dims the definition of intelligent life...unless of course we actually just became intellgent 125 years ago.  And if any life is out there ...light years away...how on Earth would we know that in as little as 25 years?  In fact...what if there is intelligent life out there that greatly surpasses ours...except they are 275 light years away?

 

[Occupational Hubris]

Just now, joc said:

Well, I think that is exactly what @astrobeinghas been saying the entire thread.  I am just saying that evolution is a thing...and things evolve a certain way and that the death of the dinosaurs would have changed the path of that evolution entirely.   I think it is a rather valid point that the life on Earth is quite unique.

Notwithstanding, How completely incredibly stupid is it for the Pointed Astrological Heads that think such things as the one in the OP...to think that any life can be found in 25 years?

To think that intelligent life must have at some point invented the radio...kind of dims the definition of intelligent life...unless of course we actually just became intellgent 125 years ago.  And if any life is out there ...light years away...how on Earth would we know that in as little as 25 years?  In fact...what if there is intelligent life out there that greatly surpasses ours...except they are 275 light years away?

 

Having not read the OP article, i would still be in agreement that we will have the nessecary technology to detect alien life in the next 25 years. Declaring that we will do so is a bit much. I would add that every day cosmologiocal discoveries seem to add to the lilkleyhood of life existing elsewhere, from glycine in comets to potental water rich worlds. 

[Duke Wellington]

Won`t it be a shock if after searching for 1000 years we still haven`t seen any alien signatures?

[Golden Duck]

47 minutes ago, joc said:

Well, I think that is exactly what @astrobeinghas been saying the entire thread.  I am just saying that evolution is a thing...and things evolve a certain way and that the death of the dinosaurs would have changed the path of that evolution entirely.   I think it is a rather valid point that the life on Earth is quite unique.

Notwithstanding, How completely incredibly stupid is it for the Pointed Astrological Heads that think such things as the one in the OP...to think that any life can be found in 25 years?

To think that intelligent life must have at some point invented the radio...kind of dims the definition of intelligent life...unless of course we actually just became intellgent 125 years ago.  And if any life is out there ...light years away...how on Earth would we know that in as little as 25 years?  In fact...what if there is intelligent life out there that greatly surpasses ours...except they are 275 light years away?

 

I'm not entirely sure what your last paragraph says about the definition of intelligent life.  But we have been using a very narrow part of of the electromagnetic spectrum for communication probably longer than history itself.  Expanding to use the rest of the spectrum seems like just a natural progression.  Radio probably won't be obsolete except for where time delays matter.

If your highly intelligent civilisation stopped transmitting by radio more than 275 years before we started listening, we missed the broadcast.  There might still be a signal on the way.

[Freez1]

I’ve said this a million times. When we keep discovering new insects, animals and microscopic organisms here on Earth that have never been documented before do you think we are any closer to discovering life on another planet when our planet hasn’t been fully explored?

[fred_mc]

On 9/19/2022 at 6:11 AM, pallidin said:

What surprises me the most is how some adamantly believe the life on Earth is the only life among trillions of galaxies

Dang, talk about narcissism.

Yes, I notice that people in general are very bad at understanding probabilities, in this case that even an extremely improbable event will happen as long as the amount of samples is practically infinite.

Another exmple is that when a reporter interviews as climatologist, he or she always wants to know if a current heatwave is connected to the greenhouse effect, although probability says that you can't answer that question, all you can say is that heatwaves have become more and more common, and the average temperature has increased, but it is impossible to connect one particular heatwave to the greenhouse effect for certain, you can only talk about probabilities. That is very hard to understand for many people.

I've had conversations like:

Other person: "Damn, I never win anything at that bingo game show."

Me: "You do realize that the probability of losing money during a 5-10 year time period on betting is almost 100 %, despite of occasional wins, while the probability of going plus during a 5-10 year time period if you invest the money in diverse mutual funds is almost 100 % ?

Other person: "Tonight I'll win a car on the show!"

[+Desertrat56]

10 hours ago, joc said:

Well, I think that is exactly what @astrobeinghas been saying the entire thread.  I am just saying that evolution is a thing...and things evolve a certain way and that the death of the dinosaurs would have changed the path of that evolution entirely.   I think it is a rather valid point that the life on Earth is quite unique.

Notwithstanding, How completely incredibly stupid is it for the Pointed Astrological Heads that think such things as the one in the OP...to think that any life can be found in 25 years?

To think that intelligent life must have at some point invented the radio...kind of dims the definition of intelligent life...unless of course we actually just became intellgent 125 years ago.  And if any life is out there ...light years away...how on Earth would we know that in as little as 25 years?  In fact...what if there is intelligent life out there that greatly surpasses ours...except they are 275 light years away?

 

Things evolve a certain way under the conditions they live in, which means we can't even take what we think evolution is on this planet as a the rule in any other environment.

[lightly]

If someone . .out there, develops near light speed travel ..we might be able to stop looking. ?   Hey hold on there lightly!  How many light years away are the nearest possibilities??  Hmmm?  .   .  . Google.

   ((“How many planets are habitable in 50 light-years?   We know of over a thousand stars within fifty lightyears and expect that about 4,000 extrasolar planets orbit these stars. About a thousand roughly earth-sized planets are thought to be in the habitable zone.”))

Edited October 3, 2022 by lightly

[itsnotoutthere]

On 9/19/2022 at 6:09 AM, pallidin said:

Seriously, you believe that no life exists anywhere else in our incredibly vast universe than our planet?

Well, carry-on.

Inadvertently you put your finger on the real problem. "our incredibly vast universe" Even if there is life out there, our universe is so incredibly vast that in all probability will never find it. Thing is that most people in general but in particular the 'Star Wars' generation cannot even begin to grasp the monumental distances involved. When I say 'Star Wars' generation, by that I mean the people that have grown up watching the type of Sci-Fi culture that depicts space travel as simply an extension of jumping on a plane. And even if (big 'if') you could build a ship that could travel the speed of light you would still be limited a handful of stars. With our fastest rockets a one way trip to our nearest star would take about 54,000 years.

Example ...If the sun was shunk down to scale to approximately the size of a grain of sand with our next nearest star being a second grain of sand, the distance between the two would be roughly 6 miles.

Edited October 3, 2022 by itsnotoutthere

[astrobeing]

11 hours ago, fred_mc said:

Yes, I notice that people in general are very bad at understanding probabilities, in this case that even an extremely improbable event will happen as long as the amount of samples is practically infinite.

Not if the probability of the event is also practically infinite or requires a series of events that are individually near infinite. That's why most possible events never happen. The set of events that do happen is a tiny subset of what can possibly happen.

[astrobeing]

2 hours ago, Desertrat56 said:

Things evolve a certain way under the conditions they live in, which means we can't even take what we think evolution is on this planet as a the rule in any other environment.

That actually is the rule and it applies in any other environment.

[Black Red Devil]

On 10/4/2022 at 3:01 AM, astrobeing said:

Not if the probability of the event is also practically infinite or requires a series of events that are individually near infinite. That's why most possible events never happen. The set of events that do happen is a tiny subset of what can possibly happen.

So, basically translated, our existence can closely be described as a miracle, yeah?  Do you think a supreme being could be responsible for this miracle?