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Trump to announce 2024 run


the13bats

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23 minutes ago, psyche101 said:

They say Trump is up in youth, but is he leading in youth? That doesn't seem a strong avenue for him. Young people aren't as susceptible to promises of the good old days. I'm genuinely surprised youth is an area that is up. I would expect the very opposite. 

Traditionally youths generally rebel against the political views of their parents and the majority of gen Z's parents were liberals so gen Z is probably going to end up more conservative then previous generations in a general sense.

Also there is the issue of taking the view on very specific past issues and assuming cause those views are held or not held that a given generation will automatically be liberal or conservative.  A good example is supporting gay marriage, it previous generations it was one of the dividing lines between liberals and conservatives but for gen Z who lived most if not their entire lives with it being legal supporting it is no longer a way to tell accurately if they are more liberal or conservative.  

Lastly you are drastically underestimating the appeal to the past for gen Z.  The reality is for a lot of gen Z when Trump was President stuff was pretty good, then covid hits which messes up a lot of stuff, and right when gen Z is starting to pay attention politically stuff is bad and Biden is president.  It's not really that hard to imagine gen Z preferring Trump over Biden when you think from their limited perspective, under Trump life was good, there was peace, and in general everything was going as it should then under Biden there was lockdowns, a major war breaking out in Europe, and justified or not extreme economic uncertainty.  People forget each generation has their own unique perspective based off of what they lived through and for gen Z their perspective has Trump in a more favorable light then Biden in general.

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8 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Traditionally youths generally rebel against the political views of their parents and the majority of gen Z's parents were liberals so gen Z is probably going to end up more conservative then previous generations in a general sense.

Also there is the issue of taking the view on very specific past issues and assuming cause those views are held or not held that a given generation will automatically be liberal or conservative.  A good example is supporting gay marriage, it previous generations it was one of the dividing lines between liberals and conservatives but for gen Z who lived most if not their entire lives with it being legal supporting it is no longer a way to tell accurately if they are more liberal or conservative.  

Lastly you are drastically underestimating the appeal to the past for gen Z.  The reality is for a lot of gen Z when Trump was President stuff was pretty good, then covid hits which messes up a lot of stuff, and right when gen Z is starting to pay attention politically stuff is bad and Biden is president.  It's not really that hard to imagine gen Z preferring Trump over Biden when you think from their limited perspective, under Trump life was good, there was peace, and in general everything was going as it should then under Biden there was lockdowns, a major war breaking out in Europe, and justified or not extreme economic uncertainty.  People forget each generation has their own unique perspective based off of what they lived through and for gen Z their perspective has Trump in a more favorable light then Biden in general.

How do you think Trump made life good for young people during his term? 

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1 minute ago, psyche101 said:

How do you think Trump made life good for young people during his term? 

Directly he didn't but that isn't what matters, it's how life was perceived during his time as president for gen Z that matters.  No president really ever does anything for children directly, why cater to people who can't vote.  

The gen Z that can vote this election but couldn't vote in the last presidential election will at the time of voting be between 18 and 21/22 depending on specific birth date, that means in 2020 they were between 14 and didn't turn 18 in time to vote so were 10 to approximately 14 when Trump was elected in 2016.  From a perspective of a 10 to 14 year old to them turning 14 to approximately 18 from 2016 to 2020 was there really anything that upset their life or caused any concern other then covid which hit at the end of Trump's Presidency and the start of Biden's Presidency.  While Trump never really did anything to help them specifically it doesn't matter as nothing particularly bad happened either till the very end and that carried heavily into Biden being president.  While under Biden they did have to deal with continued covid lockdowns, economic issues, and the breakout of a major war in Europe.  While those things might not have directly impacted gen Z it did create a perception of uncertainty, chaos, and general instability under Biden that just wasn't there for Trump.  

Essentially it's just a perspective matter where from gen Z's perspective stuff was stable and safe under Trump and chaotic and unstable under Biden.  That creates a powerful appeal to the past since their only real political experience only extends roughly 8 years of which 4 were under Trump with everything being relatively normal from their perspective to seeing massive issues and problems occur under Biden for 4 years.  If your only actual life experience of politics is from 2016 to 2024 it's not hard to imagine those people preferring Trump.  

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1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

Directly he didn't but that isn't what matters, it's how life was perceived during his time as president for gen Z that matters.  No president really ever does anything for children directly, why cater to people who can't vote.  

The gen Z that can vote this election but couldn't vote in the last presidential election will at the time of voting be between 18 and 21/22 depending on specific birth date, that means in 2020 they were between 14 and didn't turn 18 in time to vote so were 10 to approximately 14 when Trump was elected in 2016.  From a perspective of a 10 to 14 year old to them turning 14 to approximately 18 from 2016 to 2020 was there really anything that upset their life or caused any concern other then covid which hit at the end of Trump's Presidency and the start of Biden's Presidency.  While Trump never really did anything to help them specifically it doesn't matter as nothing particularly bad happened either till the very end and that carried heavily into Biden being president.  While under Biden they did have to deal with continued covid lockdowns, economic issues, and the breakout of a major war in Europe.  While those things might not have directly impacted gen Z it did create a perception of uncertainty, chaos, and general instability under Biden that just wasn't there for Trump.  

Essentially it's just a perspective matter where from gen Z's perspective stuff was stable and safe under Trump and chaotic and unstable under Biden.  That creates a powerful appeal to the past since their only real political experience only extends roughly 8 years of which 4 were under Trump with everything being relatively normal from their perspective to seeing massive issues and problems occur under Biden for 4 years.  If your only actual life experience of politics is from 2016 to 2024 it's not hard to imagine those people preferring Trump.  

This is where I'm getting lost.

Gen Z was mostly in favour of all Covid measures. Some even snuck out behind anti vax parents backs and got vaccinated. According to pew, they overwhelming disapprove of Trump's term. 

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/05/14/on-the-cusp-of-adulthood-and-facing-an-uncertain-future-what-we-know-about-gen-z-so-far-2/

A look at how Gen Z voters view the Trump presidency provides further insight into their political beliefs. A Pew Research Center survey conducted in January of this year found that about a quarter of registered voters ages 18 to 23 (22%) approved of how Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while about three-quarters disapproved (77%). Millennial voters were only slightly more likely to approve of Trump (32%) while 42% of Gen X voters, 48% of Baby Boomers and 57% of those in the Silent Generation approved of the job he’s doing as president.

 

Which is more in line with what I'm seeing. 

And I assume because:

Gen Z on track to be the best-educated generation yet
A look at older members of Generation Z suggests they are on a somewhat different educational trajectory than the generations that came before them. They are less likely to drop out of high school and more likely to be enrolled in college. Among 18- to 21-year-olds no longer in high school in 2018, 57% were enrolled in a two-year or four-year college. This compares with 52% among Millennials in 2003 and 43% among members of Gen X in 1987.

 

From the same link .

 

Thing is with Biden is he finished Afghanistan. He can't be blamed for Russia's war or Israel. He brought Covid under control as well, which would be popular with youth. It was Gen X and older that actually gave into the conspiracy theories and killed themselves thinking Covid was fake. His main detractor is his age. If he were twenty years younger I don't think Trump would have a chance against him. But I can't see that working vice versa. 

I suspect Trump's youth numbers may be marginally up from previous numbers, but he is still way behind overall I suspect. Youth are too canny for his grifting. I can't see America's youth being charmed by a nasty old man. 

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1 hour ago, psyche101 said:

This is where I'm getting lost.

Gen Z was mostly in favour of all Covid measures. Some even snuck out behind anti vax parents backs and got vaccinated. According to pew, they overwhelming disapprove of Trump's term. 

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/05/14/on-the-cusp-of-adulthood-and-facing-an-uncertain-future-what-we-know-about-gen-z-so-far-2/

A look at how Gen Z voters view the Trump presidency provides further insight into their political beliefs. A Pew Research Center survey conducted in January of this year found that about a quarter of registered voters ages 18 to 23 (22%) approved of how Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while about three-quarters disapproved (77%). Millennial voters were only slightly more likely to approve of Trump (32%) while 42% of Gen X voters, 48% of Baby Boomers and 57% of those in the Silent Generation approved of the job he’s doing as president.

 

Which is more in line with what I'm seeing. 

And I assume because:

Gen Z on track to be the best-educated generation yet
A look at older members of Generation Z suggests they are on a somewhat different educational trajectory than the generations that came before them. They are less likely to drop out of high school and more likely to be enrolled in college. Among 18- to 21-year-olds no longer in high school in 2018, 57% were enrolled in a two-year or four-year college. This compares with 52% among Millennials in 2003 and 43% among members of Gen X in 1987.

 

From the same link .

 

Thing is with Biden is he finished Afghanistan. He can't be blamed for Russia's war or Israel. He brought Covid under control as well, which would be popular with youth. It was Gen X and older that actually gave into the conspiracy theories and killed themselves thinking Covid was fake. His main detractor is his age. If he were twenty years younger I don't think Trump would have a chance against him. But I can't see that working vice versa. 

I suspect Trump's youth numbers may be marginally up from previous numbers, but he is still way behind overall I suspect. Youth are too canny for his grifting. I can't see America's youth being charmed by a nasty old man. 

That data is from 2020 and is massively out of date, even then it only looked at Gen Z between the ages of 18 to 22 as of 2020, there is now a whole other batch of Gen Z voting.  I don't know how often you talked to or interacted with Gen Z during covid but nearly every member of gen Z I talked to deeply hated the lock downs and blamed them, and by extension Biden, for ruining their junior and/or senior year of high school.  The athletes especially hated the lock downs as they viewed it as ruining or severely harming their chance of getting a scholarship to college.  

For more recent data

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/07/voter-age-biden-trump-2024-election-00150923

There is a lot of variety in the polls but a lot show for the younger voting block that Trump and Biden are tied to Trump having a significant lead which is a massive change where Biden lead the younger voting block by 20 points.  Trump tying Biden would be catastrophic for Biden let alone Trump leading in younger voters.  

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10 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

That data is from 2020 and is massively out of date, even then it only looked at Gen Z between the ages of 18 to 22 as of 2020, there is now a whole other batch of Gen Z voting. 

I figure the data is good as it actually reflects the term you mentioned. It would say what people were thinking of him when he was president. 

My understanding is most are unlikely to vote. That's why they are targetted. But I just can't see modern youth falling into the religious white nationalist outlook of the older voters. 

10 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

I don't know how often you talked to or interacted with Gen Z during covid but nearly every member of gen Z I talked to deeply hated the lock downs and blamed them, and by extension Biden, for ruining their junior and/or senior year of high school.  The athletes especially hated the lock downs as they viewed it as ruining or severely harming their chance of getting a scholarship to college.  

Quite a few as I have a son who is now 22 (tomorrow in fact) and a daughter currently 19. I'm in Australia where politics weren't as invasive on Covid but both of them, and their friends took it well. My son's missed his official 21st over Covid. He wasn't bitter though.

I'm usually a taxi. I've even given lifts to some young people just of a train and no way home. They are usually quite grateful and nervously chatty. 

10 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

For more recent data

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/07/voter-age-biden-trump-2024-election-00150923

There is a lot of variety in the polls but a lot show for the younger voting block that Trump and Biden are tied to Trump having a significant lead which is a massive change where Biden lead the younger voting block by 20 points.  Trump tying Biden would be catastrophic for Biden let alone Trump leading in younger voters.  

But Trump is mountain's away from today's values which make up gen z. Gay people, the trans thing, anti war, religion, all things gen z stand for are the polar opposites of Trump's values. What would the attraction be?? There seems to be a missing piece here? 

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7 hours ago, psyche101 said:

They say Trump is up in youth, but is he leading in youth? That doesn't seem a strong avenue for him. Young people aren't as susceptible to promises of the good old days. I'm genuinely surprised youth is an area that is up. I would expect the very opposite. 

In my opinion, Trump isnt actively trying to pull in anyone. His campaign so far is a shambles. Basicly he's running on not being Biden.

Thus, my take is his improvement with youth,  and minorities, is due to push back on Biden for these groups feeling they got nothing from the last three years.

Biden promised loan relief, which is maybe why hes up with college grads. But with non-college youth, whats he done? 

Various minority groups complain endlessly of expectations not being met.

Just IMHO...

I'm sure Biden and Co are surprised too. Every time Trump gained market share, so to speak, the Left was stunned.

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Posted (edited)

On the bookmakers front,  Biden is gaining a little on Trump.  A month ago,  Trump was $1.90 favourite,  Biden the $2.30 outsider (then RFK at $20, and a bunch of other names worse off). Last week the odds shifted so that Trump and Biden were both $2.10. Yesterday that changed slightly to Trump@$2.10 and Biden@$2.20. That both candidates are above $2 suggests that MAYBE someone else will be running in November (RFK@$21 for independents, Michelle Obama@$26, Gavin Newsome@31, Kamala Harris@$41 for Dems, and Nikki Haley@$51 for Rubs, for example,  though there are others too) . Other than that, it's very close and could go either way, though current polling has Trump ahead in the important swing states. 

Still a long way to go for either candidate. 

Edited by Paranoid Android
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57 minutes ago, Paranoid Android said:

On the bookmakers front,  Biden is gaining a little on Trump.  A month ago,  Trump was $1.90 favourite,  Biden the $2.30 outsider (then RFK at $20, and a bunch of other names worse off). Last week the odds shifted so that Trump and Biden were both $2.10. Yesterday that changed slightly to Trump@$2.10 and Biden@$2.20. That both candidates are above $2 suggests that MAYBE someone else will be running in November (RFK@$21 for independents, Michelle Obama@$26, Gavin Newsome@31, Kamala Harris@$41 for Dems, and Nikki Haley@$51 for Rubs, for example,  though there are others too) . Other than that, it's very close and could go either way, though current polling has Trump ahead in the important swing states. 

Still a long way to go for either candidate. 

Wear are these statistics from, are they from Las Vegas?

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1 hour ago, Grim Reaper 6 said:

Wear are these statistics from, are they from Las Vegas?

I am getting the numbers from an Australian online betting agency called Sportsbet. Due to legal age restrictions with gambling I didn't post a link. I think gambling on elections in America is illegal also, so I don't think Las Vegas will have anything.  But any bookie that has an election betting option is likely to be similar (eg, the TAB in Australia has Trump@$2.10, Biden@$2.15, RFK@$23 so close enough to the same for comparison). 

I will ensure I mention the name of the agency in the future. Thanks for reading :tu:

 

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26 minutes ago, Paranoid Android said:

I am getting the numbers from an Australian online betting agency called Sportsbet. Due to legal age restrictions with gambling I didn't post a link. I think gambling on elections in America is illegal also, so I don't think Las Vegas will have anything.  But any bookie that has an election betting option is likely to be similar (eg, the TAB in Australia has Trump@$2.10, Biden@$2.15, RFK@$23 so close enough to the same for comparison). 

I will ensure I mention the name of the agency in the future. Thanks for reading :tu:

 

I normally bet sporting events through the book at the Wynn Casino I have an account with them. However, I have never considered betting on politics. But thanks for bringing this up, however I doubt I would bet on politics anyway the odds would be too difficult to figure out!

thanks

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Posted (edited)

Truth Social stock dropped all last week and it's dropping again today. For some reason, I can't post the link. It won't paste but it dropped 12% on Friday and so far today it's down another 10%. Two weeks ago it was $80 per share. As of this morning it's $36.62 per share. My source was CNBC if someone wants to google.

Here's a link to a story.

Trump Media Shares Plummet Amid Criticism From Barry Diller; Trump's Net Worth Takes A Hit | IBTimes

Challenging Period for Trump Media: Stock Drop Impacts Investors with Billions in Losses (msn.com)

 

 

Edited by susieice
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1 hour ago, susieice said:

Truth Social stock dropped all last week and it's dropping again today. For some reason, I can't post the link. It won't paste but it dropped 12% on Friday and so far today it's down another 10%. Two weeks ago it was $80 per share. As of this morning it's $36.62 per share. My source was CNBC if someone wants to google.

Here's a link to a story.

Trump Media Shares Plummet Amid Criticism From Barry Diller; Trump's Net Worth Takes A Hit | IBTimes

Challenging Period for Trump Media: Stock Drop Impacts Investors with Billions in Losses (msn.com)

 

 

I wouldn't say it is down as so much as the stock is trending towards it's true valuation: Trump’s DJT stock trades at multiples that exceed the peak of the meme-stock era - MarketWatch

Many people calculate a company's investment value by comparing the companies price to their earnings as a ratio.  Currently his stock is many thousands of times higher than it's earnings (PE Ratio).  

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I'd agree with Gromdor, it was probably hype inflated at the IPO. Happens all the time.

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19 hours ago, DieChecker said:

In my opinion, Trump isnt actively trying to pull in anyone. His campaign so far is a shambles. Basicly he's running on not being Biden.

I don't know about that. He is out getting rallies up and public numbers, he is putting a lot of effort into securing the GOP nomination. 

19 hours ago, DieChecker said:

Thus, my take is his improvement with youth,  and minorities, is due to push back on Biden for these groups feeling they got nothing from the last three years.

Why would they switch to Trump instead of simply not voting? 

As I understand the situation, few are happy with the candidates and I feel could result in a low voter turnout. 

19 hours ago, DieChecker said:

Biden promised loan relief, which is maybe why hes up with college grads. But with non-college youth, whats he done? 

170 billion on public schools?

https://www.nea.org/nea-today/all-news-articles/three-years-bidens-american-rescue-plan-buoys-millions-students-and-educators

19 hours ago, DieChecker said:

Various minority groups complain endlessly of expectations not being met.

That's any government isn't it? 

19 hours ago, DieChecker said:

Just IMHO...

I'm sure Biden and Co are surprised too. Every time Trump gained market share, so to speak, the Left was stunned.

Why I'm surprised is because Trump is further away from progress and modern society than Biden. He's a conservative dinosaur peddling promises of the good old days to old people. Old people are who will fall for the Christian BS he is currently spinning, and abortion bans can't be popular with youth. It might be just my impression but I figure a large majority of youth would also see the stolen election in a very dim light and his attack on democracy can't be winning youth over. Old people tend to go more toward the values Trump is selling. Kids today don't spend $60.00 on a bible. Only old people who have moved from daytime TV shopping would. It just makes no sense. I think that youth would rather not vote than vote for Trump. 

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8 hours ago, susieice said:

From the link.

His lawyers plan to file a suit to the New York Court of Appeals asking for a delay and challenging the gag order Merchan placed him under after repeated attacks on the judge and his daughter, two sources told the Times.

 

Only corruption could beat that surely. 

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1 minute ago, psyche101 said:

I don't know about that. He is out getting rallies up and public numbers, he is putting a lot of effort into securing the GOP nomination. 

Why would they switch to Trump instead of simply not voting? 

As I understand the situation, few are happy with the candidates and I feel could result in a low voter turnout. 

170 billion on public schools?

https://www.nea.org/nea-today/all-news-articles/three-years-bidens-american-rescue-plan-buoys-millions-students-and-educators

That's any government isn't it? 

Why I'm surprised is because Trump is further away from progress and modern society than Biden. He's a conservative dinosaur peddling promises of the good old days to old people. Old people are who will fall for the Christian BS he is currently spinning, and abortion bans can't be popular with youth. It might be just my impression but I figure a large majority of youth would also see the stolen election in a very dim light and his attack on democracy can't be winning youth over. Old people tend to go more toward the values Trump is selling. Kids today don't spend $60.00 on a bible. Only old people who have moved from daytime TV shopping would. It just makes no sense. I think that youth would rather not vote than vote for Trump. 

Great post man very nicely articulated and directly to the point!!:tu:

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On 4/7/2024 at 8:07 PM, psyche101 said:

How do you think Trump made life good for young people during his term? 

Too many young people like the club goers I know laugh at BOM they have a seething hatred for things like people who d not allow them to be gender neutral, they really aren't religious and no where near old school Christian or would pay a dolt for a Bible even the ones do believe in God, 

The ones who vote see BOM as a dork and Joe as grandpa and think the fringe who say things about joe being a perv are the pervs for their thoughts jumping to that

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9 hours ago, susieice said:

Truth Social stock dropped all last week and it's dropping again today. For some reason, I can't post the link. It won't paste but it dropped 12% on Friday and so far today it's down another 10%. Two weeks ago it was $80 per share. As of this morning it's $36.62 per share. My source was CNBC if someone wants to google.

Here's a link to a story.

Trump Media Shares Plummet Amid Criticism From Barry Diller; Trump's Net Worth Takes A Hit | IBTimes

Challenging Period for Trump Media: Stock Drop Impacts Investors with Billions in Losses (msn.com)

 

 

Everything that man's involved in epic fails

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29 minutes ago, psyche101 said:

Kids today don't spend $60.00 on a bible.

Todays kids are more secular than their grandparents. That's for sure. A lot of their parents aren't all that religious either. 

They don't subscribe to racism either as a rule.

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6 minutes ago, the13bats said:

Too many young people like the club goers I know laugh at BOM they have a seething hatred for things like people who d not allow them to be gender neutral, they really aren't religious and no where near old school Christian or would pay a dolt for a Bible even the ones do believe in God, 

That's exactly my conundrum. 

There's no good reason at all that youth would be up. I don't get the polls. They have to be tailored surely. 

6 minutes ago, the13bats said:

The ones who vote see BOM as a dork and Joe as grandpa and think the fringe who say things about joe being a perv are the pervs for their thoughts jumping to that

I reckon you are spot on. The fascination is too deep and the detractors to informed. And there a lot of imagination going on. I'd say that's more concerning than grandpa photos. 

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33 minutes ago, psyche101 said:

I don't know about that. He is out getting rallies up and public numbers, he is putting a lot of effort into securing the GOP nomination. 

Why would they switch to Trump instead of simply not voting? 

As I understand the situation, few are happy with the candidates and I feel could result in a low voter turnout. 

170 billion on public schools?

https://www.nea.org/nea-today/all-news-articles/three-years-bidens-american-rescue-plan-buoys-millions-students-and-educators

That's any government isn't it? 

Why I'm surprised is because Trump is further away from progress and modern society than Biden. He's a conservative dinosaur peddling promises of the good old days to old people. Old people are who will fall for the Christian BS he is currently spinning, and abortion bans can't be popular with youth. It might be just my impression but I figure a large majority of youth would also see the stolen election in a very dim light and his attack on democracy can't be winning youth over. Old people tend to go more toward the values Trump is selling. Kids today don't spend $60.00 on a bible. Only old people who have moved from daytime TV shopping would. It just makes no sense. I think that youth would rather not vote than vote for Trump. 

It's ironic in a way BOM beat hilly because he wasn't her Joe beat don because he wasn't him, but no, after all the sore loser bs big don pulled 2020 running on the idea vote for him as the lesser of two evils won't work,

In fact joes strength is his votes which are from people who don't want him some GOP but he is the lesser of the evils not Donny.

Youth and middle aged will be big voters this time after all BOMs epic incompetent life costing response to covid cost lives of many of his voters and their kin know this come voting day.

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4 minutes ago, susieice said:

Todays kids are more secular than their grandparents. That's for sure. A lot of their parents aren't all that religious either. 

They don't subscribe to racism either as a rule.

I can't see them buying the shoes either. 

I just can't figure why Trump would have more youth support. 

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