Bye-bye, baby': Experts affirmatively conclude 'yes, it's happening' — Trump is getting indicted

[stereologist]

16 hours ago, DieChecker said:

Real Clear Poiitics says he's leading the pack still. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/2024_republican_presidential_nomination-7548.html

So you  used a site known for a conservative bias that picked only a few polls to formulate a message they want to pretend is relevant. We already know that the Emerson poll was NFG. If you look at the poll results even in this biased sampling of polls you notice Trump sliding and DeSantis gaining.

[+DieChecker]

On 1/8/2023 at 12:16 PM, the13bats said:

My wife taught classes at the university about all the flaws in polls and survives. Ive seen on here seems people love them when they support their opinions hate them when the dont. I could do a poll on here how many think trump is a complete embarrassment to the country and it would should majority agree. Wait, bad example? Hum?

You missed the point of what i said about not grasping why a little clique think trump will win 2024 ill try it like this...with the guys history, his epic life costing bumbling incompetent 4 and epic loss to biden and kick out 2020 the 6th etc i cant grasp why any rational person would even want him and then i see the eccentric sarcasm is lost. So tell me this why do some worship trump in the closet, you know who i mean you can clearly see by their posts their heads are bowed knee bent yet they wont own it why not?

I got no idea why there would be closet Trump lovers.

My point is, recently, all public polls put Trump well ahead. That you don't agree is your own issue. 

[+DieChecker]

23 hours ago, stereologist said:

So you  used a site known for a conservative bias that picked only a few polls to formulate a message they want to pretend is relevant. We already know that the Emerson poll was NFG. If you look at the poll results even in this biased sampling of polls you notice Trump sliding and DeSantis gaining.

I didn't know RealClearPolitics was right leaning. Let me check...

I'm so sorry for using using such a bias site. (Sarcasm).

https://www.allsides.com/news-source/real-clear-politics

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/real-clear-politics/

Overall, I'd not say it's so bad.

I did notice Trump losing ground, but thats not "right now", is it.

Here is the same info from FiveThirtyEight on GOP primary 2024.

Trump still leads. 538 is a left leaning poll service. 

[F3SS]

1 hour ago, DieChecker said:

I didn't know RealClearPolitics was right leaning. Let me check...

I'm so sorry for using using such a bias site. (Sarcasm).

https://www.allsides.com/news-source/real-clear-politics

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/real-clear-politics/

Overall, I'd not say it's so bad.

I did notice Trump losing ground, but thats not "right now", is it.

Here is the same info from FiveThirtyEight on GOP primary 2024.

Trump still leads. 538 is a left leaning poll service. 

Stop photoshopping all these polls you cultist!

[the13bats]

On 1/8/2023 at 4:32 PM, stereologist said:

So you  used a site known for a conservative bias that picked only a few polls to formulate a message they want to pretend is relevant. We already know that the Emerson poll was NFG. If you look at the poll results even in this biased sampling of polls you notice Trump sliding and DeSantis gaining.

They do not understand how polls are conducted and the inherent flaws with them.

They find one that shows what they want and think its solid gold.

[+DieChecker]

34 minutes ago, the13bats said:

They do not understand how polls are conducted and the inherent flaws with them.

They find one that shows what they want and think its solid gold.

Post the "Real Polls" then. Simple. If what others post is wrong, post the true info. Stop b-chin about it.

[+Link of Hyrule]

39 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

Post the "Real Polls" then. Simple. If what others post is wrong, post the true info. Stop b-chin about it.

Over 50% of respondents want Trump, if you believe the polls: https://big-village.com/public-opinion-polling/

If you believe the betting agencies, Trump is the underdog, though nowhere near the "no chance" odds that are being bandied about in the media. $1.91 for De Santis vs $3.25 for Trump to be the Republican nominee - https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/us-politics/2024-republican-presidential-nominee-5565317 (for context, Trump was paying $5 the night before he won the 2016 election, and his odds were $4 in 2020 when he lost a landslide - both are worse odds than his current Republican nomination, however). 

Whatever the answer is, I really hope we don't get another Trump run. But if we do, I wouldn't mind seeing him win. 

Edited January 10, 2023 by Paranoid Android

[the13bats]

2 hours ago, DieChecker said:

Post the "Real Polls" then. Simple. If what others post is wrong, post the true info. Stop b-chin about it.

Relax if you can.

Do you have reading comprehension problems its okay if you do but i already told you all polls are inherently flawed i dont use them.

[+DieChecker]

20 hours ago, the13bats said:

Relax if you can.

Do you have reading comprehension problems its okay if you do but i already told you all polls are inherently flawed i dont use them.

So.... How do you know most GOP voters are against Trump? Articles? Because those articles are based on polls.

[+DieChecker]

22 hours ago, Paranoid Android said:

Over 50% of respondents want Trump, if you believe the polls: https://big-village.com/public-opinion-polling/

If you believe the betting agencies, Trump is the underdog, though nowhere near the "no chance" odds that are being bandied about in the media. $1.91 for De Santis vs $3.25 for Trump to be the Republican nominee - https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/us-politics/2024-republican-presidential-nominee-5565317 (for context, Trump was paying $5 the night before he won the 2016 election, and his odds were $4 in 2020 when he lost a landslide - both are worse odds than his current Republican nomination, however). 

Whatever the answer is, I really hope we don't get another Trump run. But if we do, I wouldn't mind seeing him win. 

It is weird. The polls show Trump being the likely Primary winner, but show Trump losing to Biden. But... DeSantis winning over Biden. So, is kind of confusing as to why he's leading the primary poll.

[+Desertrat56]

2 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

It is weird. The polls show Trump being the likely Primary winner, but show Trump losing to Biden. But... DeSantis winning over Biden. So, is kind of confusing as to why he's leading the primary poll.

Like @the13bats said, polls are flawed and you can't use any of them to make sense out of anything, unless it is local.  For one thing demographics, number of participants, area of people polled etc, are variables that will skew any poll to the point of being meaningless.  

[+DieChecker]

10 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

Like @the13bats said, polls are flawed and you can't use any of them to make sense out of anything, unless it is local.  For one thing demographics, number of participants, area of people polled etc, are variables that will skew any poll to the point of being meaningless.  

That's true, but at the same time the vast majority of the public doesn't understand that, so the polls posted online are golden to them. And can be a self fulfilling prophesy. The media controls what almost all of us sees, and polls are just one of the levers they use on us.

So, polls aren't useless. They tell us where our favorite media thinks things are going. 

Which if we're talking GOP Primary, shouldn't we then look at the bias right polls to see how they want us to vote? Because, more or less, that's how things will roll out.

[+Desertrat56]

8 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

That's true, but at the same time the vast majority of the public doesn't understand that, so the polls posted online are golden to them. And can be a self fulfilling prophesy. The media controls what almost all of us sees, and polls are just one of the levers they use on us.

So, polls aren't useless. They tell us where our favorite media thinks things are going. 

Which if we're talking GOP Primary, shouldn't we then look at the bias right polls to see how they want us to vote? Because, more or less, that's how things will roll out.

I guess since I don't have a "favorite Media" nor do I care what they are selling, because that's what it is, selling, selling fear, or trust in a politician or what ever.   I am not alone in that either.   The GOP Primary is not going to have anything to do with DeSantis or Trump, because DeSantis is not registered and Trump is not supported by the GOP.   So find a poll with realistic questions instead of emotionally charged imaginary scenarios and I might concede your point.

[+DieChecker]

4 hours ago, Desertrat56 said:

I guess since I don't have a "favorite Media" nor do I care what they are selling, because that's what it is, selling, selling fear, or trust in a politician or what ever.   I am not alone in that either.   The GOP Primary is not going to have anything to do with DeSantis or Trump, because DeSantis is not registered and Trump is not supported by the GOP.   So find a poll with realistic questions instead of emotionally charged imaginary scenarios and I might concede your point.

Let's revisit in about a year. Things will have sorted out a bit by then.

[+DieChecker]

CNN: Exclusive: US intelligence materials related to Ukraine, Iran and UK found in Biden's private office, source tells CNN.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/10/politics/biden-classified-documents-iran-ukraine-united-kingdom-beau-funeral/index.html

Garland has to decide if he's going to treat this the same as Trump, or not.

[Golden Duck]

On 1/10/2023 at 6:45 AM, DieChecker said:

I got no idea why there would be closet Trump lovers.

My point is, recently, all public polls put Trump well ahead. That you don't agree is your own issue. 

Closet Trump Supporters was a premise used by Trafalgar Polling.

[the13bats]

On 1/10/2023 at 5:17 PM, DieChecker said:

So.... How do you know most GOP voters are against Trump? Articles? Because those articles are based on polls.

Some of you guys and its not really your faults seem to believe the rest of the world revolve around the same sources you guys do, its just not the case i do not "listen" to 2nd 3rd etc party sources like msm, if you know me in the paranormal sections you know i ask for proof or at least supportive evidence.

In this day and age most times we can go track down the source and watch a video of them saying whatever they were accused of saying or doing.

Now you question as to why i personally believe that the GOP or bulk of the Republican party are over trump? Its not one source all kinds of little things trump has done has whittled away at the affection the GOP has for him im to tired and lazy to start listing but heck even this thread is about hot water the mans gotten himself into. Its not like the GOP has jumped to back him this time.

GOP want to survive into the future and they see the damage trump did to the country their party and its people, i believe the GOP want a life after trump so they are backing away from him. far more will be known when the GOP endorse a runner if its trump they can kiss their party good bye.

Polls, you like them if they support your opinion and only back peddled when D-rat also pointed out how flawed they are most people do like polls too much look how puffed up hilly was 2016 she put too much faith in polls and trump took the gold ring.

A closet trumper and we have a few here try to act like they do not support him all the while giving it away in their posts they actually do kneel at the orange alter no big deal i imagine some are too embarrassed to admit they support him which brings it around to why i think he even claims hes running 2024 he hates to be a loser yet doesnt really besides ego and revenge even want to win again its hard work for that old lazy obese man his running means more $$$ into his gofundme.

Is your wallet open?

 

Edited January 12, 2023 by the13bats
typos

[+DieChecker]

2 hours ago, the13bats said:

Some of you guys and its not really your faults seem to believe the rest of the world revolve around the same sources you guys do, its just not the case i do not "listen" to 2nd 3rd etc party sources like msm, if you know me in the paranormal sections you know i ask for proof or at least supportive evidence.

In this day and age most times we can go track down the source and watch a video of them saying whatever they were accused of saying or doing.

Now you question as to why i personally believe that the GOP or bulk of the Republican party are over trump? Its not one source all kinds of little things trump has done has whittled away at the affection the GOP has for him im to tired and lazy to start listing but heck even this thread is about hot water the mans gotten himself into. Its not like the GOP has jumped to back him this time.

That's fair enough. Some here, some there. 

Quote

GOP want to survive into the future and they see the damage trump did to the country their party and its people, i believe the GOP want a life after trump so they are backing away from him. far more will be known when the GOP endorse a runner if its trump they can kiss their party good bye.

That's all true, but that doesnt explain the polls. I know you discount the polls, and I acknowledge they have issues. There are many articles on the issues. Yet the pollsters keep saying they've fixed it each time, by weighting the data in specific ways. Which seems fishy also. But polls is the main way of judging the overall public.

When Trump won in 2016, like 90% of my friends said, "How did he even get 40% in Oregon, no one I know voted for him.". Which illustrates something. Even just listening to your friends and family is not always indicative of how they actually vote.

Quote

Polls, you like them if they support your opinion and only back peddled when D-rat also pointed out how flawed they are most people do like polls too much look how puffed up hilly was 2016 she put too much faith in polls and trump took the gold ring.

I didn't back peddle, I looked into possible bias, and agreed. Then posted a left leaning source with the same polls listed.

FYI, see my post #171 linked below where I posted two links showing DeSantis leading before I posted RealClearPolitics. So, I don't just love GOP bias sites, I look at everything.

Quote

Is your wallet open?

I never donate to politicians. I only donate to worthy causes.

 

 

[the13bats]

1 minute ago, DieChecker said:

That's fair enough. Some here, some there. 

That's all true, but that doesnt explain the polls. I know you discount the polls, and I acknowledge they have issues. There are many articles on the issues. Yet the pollsters keep saying they've fixed it each time, by weighting the data in specific ways. Which seems fishy also. But polls is the main way of judging the overall public.

When Trump won in 2016, like 90% of my friends said, "How did he even get 40% in Oregon, no one I know voted for him.". Which illustrates something. Even just listening to your friends and family is not always indicative of how they actually vote.

I didn't back peddle, I looked into possible bias, and agreed. Then posted a left leaning source with the same polls listed.

FYI, see my post #171 linked below where I posted two links showing DeSantis leading before I posted RealClearPolitics. So, I don't just love GOP bias sites, I look at everything.

I never donate to politicians. I only donate to worthy causes.

 

 

The simple fact is polls are always flawed sure there could be degrees of flaw it comes down to the pool the poll is taken from. I just see some use polls like they are the holy grail.

[+DieChecker]

25 minutes ago, the13bats said:

The simple fact is polls are always flawed sure there could be degrees of flaw it comes down to the pool the poll is taken from. I just see some use polls like they are the holy grail.

I've actually been pretty hard on polls since 2016, when the Huffington Post said they're polling led them to believe a 98% chance of a Clinton blowout victory. 

2020 wasn't much better. 2022 was as bad, or worse then 2016, as the polls greatly inflated how many GOP seats would be gained.

But it is one of the tools we have, we just need to recognize the bias of whom put it out, and judge what the "Real Number", might be for ourself.

Edited January 12, 2023 by DieChecker

[the13bats]

2 hours ago, DieChecker said:

I've actually been pretty hard on polls since 2016, when the Huffington Post said they're polling led them to believe a 98% chance of a Clinton blowout victory. 

2020 wasn't much better. 2022 was as bad, or worse then 2016, as the polls greatly inflated how many GOP seats would be gained.

But it is one of the tools we have, we just need to recognize the bias of whom put it out, and judge what the "Real Number", might be for ourself.

Sure that will work to a point if and thats a qualifying "if" we actually recognize the bias that is always there and not succumb to the ideal that because one agrees with the poll it must be solid because its not.

Hilly learned that hardcore 2016, her ego she got puffed up with herself got slack and handed it to don, i heard she had a huge tantrum.

The thing that sabotaged the '22 seats was trumps endorsement that orange stain really did hurt those runners saying it was jarring to the GOP would be akin to calling leprosy a minor skin rash.