Think tank simulation predicts ‘heavy’ losses on all sides, including US, if China invades Taiwan

[+OverSword]

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A war games simulation of a full-scale Chinese invasion of the self-governing island nation of Taiwan predicts “heavy losses” for all parties likely to be involved, including the U.S. and Japan.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) ran the simulation of a 2026 Chinese invasion of Taiwan exactly 24 times, drawing on historical data and operational research. The simulation’s events are included in an extensive report released Monday.

In most scenarios, an alliance between the U.S., Japan and Taiwan defeated China after three or four weeks of fighting — but at the loss of dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and tens of thousands of troops.

Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the CSIS International Security Program and an author of the report, told The Hill the big takeaway from the simulation is that Taiwan can be sustained as an independent nation.

“But the cost is very high,” he added.

 

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[+and-then]

I wonder if they factored in the economic devastation that would be caused by such a war's impacts on the world's supply of microchips?  

[+OverSword]

11 minutes ago, and-then said:

I wonder if they factored in the economic devastation that would be caused by such a war's impacts on the world's supply of microchips?  

That's why we are getting our own ability to manufacture them up to speed.

[Abramelin]

War is not a game nerds can play.