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Tracking the 2024 Republican Primary: Trump Leads Potential Rivals


OverSword

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https://morningconsult.com/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker/

DeSantis polls better against Biden than Trump does but Trump polls better as a candidate than DeSantis.  What I don't (and I mean REALLY don't) get is WTH?  Who the heck is actually supporting Trump as a candidate at this point?  The man is a wreck, an egomaniac, a liar, and just not that bright.

 

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13 minutes ago, OverSword said:

https://morningconsult.com/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker/

DeSantis polls better against Biden than Trump does but Trump polls better than DeSantis as a candidate apparently.  What I don't (and I mean REALLY don't) get is WTH?  Who the heck is actually supporting Trump as a candidate at this point?  The man is a wreck, an egomaniac, a liar, and just not that bright.

 

Remember the conversation in another thread about this very same subject?   Polls are meaningless, and there are a plethora of reasons why. Number one is Bias of the polls themselves, 2 is the demographics of those polled, etc.   I suspect this link from morningconsult.com is a biased source to begin with. 

Responses shown among potential GOP primary voters, who were asked whom they would vote for if the 2024 Republican primary or caucus were held in their state today.

But it doesn't say what location the people polled were, how many were polled etc.    It could have been 10 people registered republican in Bubba's bar.

Edited by Desertrat56
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3 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

Remember the conversation in another thread about this very same subject?   Polls are meaningless, and there are a plethora of reasons why. Number one is Bias of the polls themselves, 2 is the demographics of those polled, etc.   I suspect this link from morningconsult.com is a biased source to begin with. 

According to Media Bias Fact Check they (Morning Consult) rate in the center near least biased and very high as far as factuality.  I find media bias/ fact check to be pretty accurate.

leastbiased031.png?w=600&ssl=1

MBFCVeryhigh.png?w=360&ssl=1

Edited by OverSword
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5 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

Remember the conversation in another thread about this very same subject?   Polls are meaningless, and there are a plethora of reasons why. Number one is Bias of the polls themselves, 2 is the demographics of those polled, etc.   I suspect this link from morningconsult.com is a biased source to begin with. 

Responses shown among potential GOP primary voters, who were asked whom they would vote for if the 2024 Republican primary or caucus were held in their state today.

But it doesn't say what location the people polled were, how many were polled etc.    It could have been 10 people registered republican in Bubba's bar.

It says there were 3,763 people polled which is about 3.763 times the usual number polled.

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1 minute ago, OverSword said:

According to Media Bias Fact Check they (Morning Consult) rate in the center near least biased and very high as far as factuality.  I find media bias/ fact check to be pretty accurate.

leastbiased031.png?w=600&ssl=1

MBFCVeryhigh.png?w=360&ssl=1

Still, they don't make it easy to find their demographics

Survey conducted Jan. 14-16, 2023, among 3,763 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.

And it doesn't say what the location of those polled is.   That makes a big difference.   If it is 3,763 random republicans across the nation or 3,763 republicans in Atlanta makes a big difference.  Even so, that many republicans in every state should be polled to get accurate results.  3,763 is too small a number to be reasonable.

 

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Quote

 

Methodology

The latest national results on questions pertaining to 2024 Republican presidential primary first choice, second choice and hypothetical general-election matchups reflect surveys conducted Jan. 14-15, 2023. The first- and second-choice results reflect responses among 3,763 potential Republican primary voters. Our sample of potential Republican primary voters includes any registered voter who said they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in their state in 2024. 

Potential GOP primary voters who initially said they did not know or had no opinion about which candidate they plan to vote for were asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean toward a candidate.

The hypothetical general-election results against President Joe Biden reflect responses among a nationally representative sample of roughly 6,000 registered voters, at least. 

Morning Consult’s reported results among both sets of voters for the aforementioned questions reflect data based on a three-day trailing average. Across all times series, results among potential Republican primary voters have an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 1 to 2 percentage points, while results among all voters have an unweighted margin of error of 1 percentage point. 

Morning Consult conducts daily interviews with a representative sample of roughly 4,000 registered voters in the United States via stratified sampling based on age, gender, and language (English/Spanish). This daily sample is weighted based on age, education, ethnicity, gender, geographic region, home ownership, marital status and 2020 presidential vote history.

Morning Consult’s reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz reflect data gathered on a weekly or biweekly basis among roughly 800 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of 4 percentage points.

 

https://morningconsult.com/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker/

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28 minutes ago, OverSword said:

https://morningconsult.com/2024-gop-primary-election-tracker/

DeSantis polls better against Biden than Trump does but Trump polls better as a candidate than DeSantis.  What I don't (and I mean REALLY don't) get is WTH?  Who the heck is actually supporting Trump as a candidate at this point?  The man is a wreck, an egomaniac, a liar, and just not that bright.

 

You are correct in your statement. But don't forget that we never really learn truly from history. We only pretend we do and then keep on doing the same mistakes.

I still stand to my opinion that only someone like DeSantis can make an end to the MAGA, Qannon and election steel madness. Not Biden, not any other Democrat or Republican.

If I could vote my vote would go to DeSantis only at this point. Not because I like him, far from that, but with him USA would go back to old fashioned politics and not towards a civil war.

 

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7 minutes ago, odas said:

You are correct in your statement. But don't forget that we never really learn truly from history. We only pretend we do and then keep on doing the same mistakes.

I still stand to my opinion that only someone like DeSantis can make an end to the MAGA, Qannon and election steel madness. Not Biden, not any other Democrat or Republican.

If I could vote my vote would go to DeSantis only at this point. Not because I like him, far from that, but with him USA would go back to old fashioned politics and not towards a civil war.

 

That's a big maybe.  Look how much of the GOP is willing to look the other way about Santos, and how many Democrats would embrace giving 16 year old's or non-citizens the vote?  We need more than a reasonable president at this point.

Edited by OverSword
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9 minutes ago, odas said:

You are correct in your statement. But don't forget that we never really learn truly from history. We only pretend we do and then keep on doing the same mistakes.

I still stand to my opinion that only someone like DeSantis can make an end to the MAGA, Qannon and election steel madness. Not Biden, not any other Democrat or Republican.

If I could vote my vote would go to DeSantis only at this point. Not because I like him, far from that, but with him USA would go back to old fashioned politics and not towards a civil war.

 

Old fashioned politics?   What does that mean?   The only difference between politics now and 50 years ago is the internet, and blatant media bias that was not so blatant 50 years ago.  

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3 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

Old fashioned politics?   What does that mean?   The only difference between politics now and 50 years ago is the internet, and blatant media bias that was not so blatant 50 years ago.  

Also both sides seemed more centrist and could find more common ground then than now.

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Just now, OverSword said:

Also both sides seemed more centrist and could find more common ground then than now.

Yes, now that is one thing that we lost somewhere, centrist thinking and compromise.

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5 minutes ago, odas said:

You are correct in your statement. But don't forget that we never really learn truly from history. We only pretend we do and then keep on doing the same mistakes.

I still stand to my opinion that only someone like DeSantis can make an end to the MAGA, Qannon and election steel madness. Not Biden, not any other Democrat or Republican.

If I could vote my vote would go to DeSantis only at this point. Not because I like him, far from that, but with him USA would go back to old fashioned politics and not towards a civil war.

 

If the Republicans admired quiet conservative competence they would go for one of the Republican state governors like Hogan or Sununu who managed their states through covid and economic issues without resorting to book bans, don't say gay bills and CRT .  DeSantis leans on social issues to make a name for himself.  He won't end MAGA or Qanon, it gets him votes.

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Let's be clear the OP is discussing opinion polls, not scientific research.

A sample size of 6,000 is fine.

Quote

This advice is for:

  • Basic surveys such as feedback forms, needs assessments, opinion surveys, etc. conducted as part of a program.
  • Surveys that use random sampling.

...

A good maximum sample size is usually 10% as long as it does not exceed 1000

...

Even in a population of 200,000, sampling 1000 people will normally give a fairly accurate result. Sampling more than 1000 people won’t add much to the accuracy given the extra time and money it would cost.

https://tools4dev.org/resources/how-to-choose-a-sample-size/

 

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1 minute ago, Desertrat56 said:

Yes, now that is one thing that we lost somewhere, centrist thinking and compromise.

Its much harder to be a victim in a centrist compromising atmosphere.  Some folks seem to relish that role of blaming all of their dissatisfaction on somebody else.  Pandering to that raises emotions and gets votes. 

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9 minutes ago, OverSword said:

That's a big maybe.  Look how much of the GOP is willing to look the other way about Santos, and how many Democrats would embrace giving 16 year old's or non-citizens the vote?  We need more than a reasonable president at this point.

I understand. But who? You push the nail out with another nail. Nicely asking is not going to work. DeSantis is not center, he is on the right too, but he is also a pragmatic. If he is elected he will be gunning for term 2. In that case he will need a cleaner sheet than Trump, Biden or McCarthy in this case.

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Just now, Tatetopa said:

Its much harder to be a victim in a centrist compromising atmosphere.  Some folks seem to relish that role of blaming all of their dissatisfaction on somebody else.  Pandering to that raises emotions and gets votes. 

It seems to have become a virus of the mind, an epidemic.

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Just now, odas said:

I understand. But who? You push the nail out with another nail. Nicely asking is not going to work. DeSantis is not center, he is on the right too, but he is also a pragmatic. If he is elected he will be gunning for term 2. In that case he will need a cleaner sheet than Trump, Biden or McCarthy in this case.

DeSantis is a showboat, posturing for the news media, making rash decisions about people's lives with no concern for anyone.

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2 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

DeSantis leans on social issues to make a name for himself.

He can do that because those things, right or wrong, are actually of concern to his Floridian constituents.  That's one of the reasons they put him in office so I don't think it's fair criticism to belittle him for actions Ronald Reagan probably would have taken as well.

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11 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

Old fashioned politics?   What does that mean?   The only difference between politics now and 50 years ago is the internet, and blatant media bias that was not so blatant 50 years ago.  

Again, you are on the brink of a civil war. Old fashioned politics in US 50 years ago was lies and desception and not gunning for civil war and your neighbour who is a Rep or Dem.

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6 minutes ago, odas said:

Again, you are on the brink of a civil war. Old fashioned politics in US 50 years ago was lies and desception and not gunning for civil war and your neighbour who is a Rep or Dem.

Are you afraid a civil war in the U.S. will cross our northern border?

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3 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

DeSantis is a showboat, posturing for the news media, making rash decisions about people's lives with no concern for anyone.

Yes, yes and yes. Agree with you 100+%. But we have to be realistic. MAGA and Trumpists are still strong. There is a valid fear that Trump still could get the nomination. He might lose, again. In that case all cards are open. If he wins, then God may have mercy on us all.. That is how bad things are.

In my perfect world neither DeSantis or Trump would be president nor any far right or far left. But a perfect world does not exist.

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Yessir... it looks like 2024 is going to be an interesting year.  Provided the country hasn't collapsed by then.  As for why Trump is polling high, the reason is quite simple.  The problem is found in the reality of where America is today and the fact that a huge number of Americans do not approve of it in the slightest.  The lawlessness, drastic, some would say unhinged, level of social changes, and the blatant double-standard in our justice system all have created a LOT of frustration and anger among roughly half of the nation.  They are looking for a way back to what they consider sanity in government and the Left has created the perfect storm by demonizing the guy those Americans watched "right the ship" during the storm.

Trump support isn't difficult to understand, but I can see how frustrating it must be when a person simply cannot get past their media-programming and see him and his supporters for what they ARE and not what the Carny Barkers keep yelling.  So sit back and enjoy the show.  Once the DC crowd finally has to publicly admit that their indictments, even convictions, aren't going to stop him... things are going to get REALLY interesting.  :yes: 

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1 minute ago, Desertrat56 said:

Are you afraid a civil war in the U.S. will cross our northern border?

Not only your northern border but also your southern border and all the way to the rest of the world. You guys talk how big and strong the US is but in reality you cannot comprehend it. Without a strong and healthy America, with all it's shortcommings in labour laws, healthcare.., the world will end as we know it. You think we have many wars now? That would be nothing compared to what we would have if there is a civil war in the US.

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3 minutes ago, odas said:

Yes, yes and yes. Agree with you 100+%. But we have to be realistic. MAGA and Trumpists are still strong. There is a valid fear that Trump still could get the nomination. He might lose, again. In that case all cards are open. If he wins, then God may have mercy on us all.. That is how bad things are.

In my perfect world neither DeSantis or Trump would be president nor any far right or far left. But a perfect world does not exist.

I think you  are confused about who DeSantis is.   He will use what ever tactics get him votes and in Florida that might be to pander to the MAGA.   He might not call it MAGA, but it will be him trying to get those voters to vote for him.   He is no less divisive than Trump, and the divisiveness is the problem.   We need an independent to be our next president.  That is my hope/wish/dream.   You sound depressed and willing to choose the pile of **** that looks a little less green because you think you have to.   That is always what the "we only have two parties so you have choose the lesser of two evils" is reallly saying, and it is a LIE.   Don't worry so much about U.S. politics.  What is going on politicallyl in Canada?   That should be your focus.

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9 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

I think you  are confused about who DeSantis is.   He will use what ever tactics get him votes and in Florida that might be to pander to the MAGA.   He might not call it MAGA, but it will be him trying to get those voters to vote for him.   He is no less divisive than Trump, and the divisiveness is the problem.   We need an independent to be our next president.  That is my hope/wish/dream.   You sound depressed and willing to choose the pile of **** that looks a little less green because you think you have to.   That is always what the "we only have two parties so you have choose the lesser of two evils" is reallly saying, and it is a LIE.   Don't worry so much about U.S. politics.  What is going on politicallyl in Canada?   That should be your focus.

Whatever happenes in Canada, stays in Canada.

Untill you find a real center president DeSantis is the only choice, unfortunately. I know, I sound like a right wing but no, not at all. Just my life experiance. I lived it once, went thru all what you are living thru now. We had a choice to counter the far right serbian nationalists. We choose a very liberal bosniak president. Great man, honest and friendly. Over 100000 deaths, millions of refugees later...we should have gone with a far right lying, sceeming SOB bosniak we did not like. We had a choice, we screwed up. We are still paying for it.

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