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Tracking the 2024 Republican Primary: Trump Leads Potential Rivals


OverSword

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 Betting on elections is illegal in the US (but not in my country), so I have taken a screen shot of the current odds rather than linking to a potentially illegal website. Trump is firming - one week ago the odds were $1.90 (DeSantis) vs $3.50 (Trump).

If you don't believe polls try the bookies who make or lose money on how well they can predict the odds! If DeSantis really is the overwhelming favourite,  $2.20 odds is basically suicide. Though it's still early days, the odds could change easily.

Screenshot_20230119_143139_Chrome.thumb.jpg.05985a507043b09efbddb3fbb102641d.jpg

Edited by Paranoid Android
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11 hours ago, OverSword said:

Who the heck is actually supporting Trump as a candidate at this point?  The man is a wreck, an egomaniac, a liar, and just not that bright.

I am.  Trump isn't a wreck.  Wrecks are in the junk yard.  Despite everything they thru at Trump they couldn't destroy him.  He may be an egomaniac but what POTUS isn't?  It's kind of a required state of mind.  He isn't much of a liar, but then again, what POTUS doesn't lie?  He is incredibly bright.  You don't do the things he has done...including not be destroyed by the Media non-stop blitz of negative attack ads...without being exceptionally bright.

In fact you don't get to the POTUS seat at all without being exceptionally bright.  Even Biden isn't a dullard.  He may be out of his league now and probably suffering from dementia.

I have always been a Trump supporter.  I will always be a Trump supporter.  I don't care who doesn't like it.  I don't care who likes it.  It is what it is.  The guy has world class testicles and that's what America and the World need right now.  

Edited by joc
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3 hours ago, Paranoid Android said:

 Betting on elections is illegal in the US (but not in my country), so I have taken a screen shot of the current odds rather than linking to a potentially illegal website. Trump is firming - one week ago the odds were $1.90 (DeSantis) vs $3.50 (Trump).

If you don't believe polls try the bookies who make or lose money on how well they can predict the odds! If DeSantis really is the overwhelming favourite,  $2.20 odds is basically suicide. Though it's still early days, the odds could change easily.

Screenshot_20230119_143139_Chrome.thumb.jpg.05985a507043b09efbddb3fbb102641d.jpg

That market doesn't even add up too 100 per cent.

How has the market changed?  What is the pooĺ?  What is that agencies margin?

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21 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

That market doesn't even add up too 100 per cent.

How has the market changed?  What is the pooĺ?  What is that agencies margin?

Those aren't percentages.  They're the potential returns for a $1 bet.  If you bet $1 on DeSantis you will get $2.20 if he wins.  If you bet it on Trump and Trump wins you'll get $2.80. Pence is the $18 outside on the next line of betting, and it's daylight from there. 

Edit: I'll message the admin, see how they feel about the links and if I can post the link for informational purposes,  then you can look at it in detail if you like - or just google 2024 Republican Primary Odds

 

Edited by Paranoid Android
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Just now, Paranoid Android said:

Those aren't percentages.  They're the potential returns for a $1 bet.  If you bet $1 on DeSantis you will get $2.20 if he wins.  If you bet it on Trump and Trump wins you'll get $2.80. Pence is the $18 outside on the next line of betting. 

 

I know what they are.  It still doesn’t  change the fact that based on what you supplied the market doesn't add to 100 per cent.

For example A football match where both team are paying $1.90 adds up to more than 105 percent.  That means a margin of more than 5 per cent.

The prices adjust with the amount of risk they carry.  So in effect is just an imbalanced poll of people who are prepared to gamble.

 

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20 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

I know what they are.  It still doesn’t  change the fact that based on what you supplied the market doesn't add to 100 per cent.

For example A football match where both team are paying $1.90 adds up to more than 105 percent.  That means a margin of more than 5 per cent.

The prices adjust with the amount of risk they carry.  So in effect is just an imbalanced poll of people who are prepared to gamble.

 

I didn't screenshot the whole list:

Edit: fixed up personal information (there's another page,  but I accidentally deleted it while editing it my personal info).

 

 

 

 

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Edited by Paranoid Android
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Never mind

 

Edited by Paranoid Android
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24 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

I know what they are.  It still doesn’t  change the fact that based on what you supplied the market doesn't add to 100 per cent.

For example A football match where both team are paying $1.90 adds up to more than 105 percent.  That means a margin of more than 5 per cent.

The prices adjust with the amount of risk they carry.  So in effect is just an imbalanced poll of people who are prepared to gamble.

 

Anyone who thinks bookies rely on polls 1st in their gauging isnt very informed.

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1 minute ago, the13bats said:

Anyone who thinks bookies rely on polls 1st in their gauging isnt very informed.

Whatever metric they use,  they've installed Trump as a very tiny ($2.20 vs $2.80) underdog. 

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3 hours ago, joc said:

The guy has world class testicles and that's what America and the World need right now.  

 

Thats your opinion and would be super if the case, i believe you like others mistake BOMs bellowing BS and raving tantrums as having cojones its not the same thing at all and 2020 showed us that America doesnt want him and the world doesnt need him they have plenty of other things to laugh at. :hmm:

No, i wont ever grasp why you are so very devoted to this man being your saviour like no other but i do respect you feel that way. :tu:

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10 hours ago, Desertrat56 said:

I'm with @OverSword, I don't usually find your religious references relevant or useful, but this synopsis makes sense in a way.   What is weird is I remember reading an article in Franklin Graham's magazine a couple of years ago saying that Trump was evil, and a non-christian, but now I can't find that article.   And Franklin Graham is one of his supporters.   It is not that I care about Franklin Graham, I think his father is spinning in his grave over the things he says nowadays, but it caught my attention.  

Franklin Graham is a charlatan, sadly. His father was fine, except he was a coward around President Nixon, and gosh knows, who else .... certainly when it came to people of Jewish faith. Whether he really believed these things he said on the Nixon tapes, is hard to know, but it doesn't matter. He chose to be hanging around in the White House, instead of supporting a faith that is the bedrock of his own. He chose power and privilege over the goodness in his heart. That's not the way this works.

If "sense" as you say was being utilized, we would never have elected Donald Trump. I disliked the alternative, but I knew she would have been far safer, and safety is what was lost in the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and everything else that followed.

Most folks have watched too many movies to understand the forecast mechanics of what could happen. What is forecast is not like the film, The Omen. It's a good movie, and I enjoyed it as much as anyone else, but it doesn't follow the actual forecast of what is supposed to happen, and more importantly, why. 

I doubt Donald Trump can go any further politically, without the help of a Higher Power, because it was a Higher Power that arguably, removed him. Remarkably, in private, Trump initially blame thed "plague," yet his supporters were happy to blame the process. The question I now have, is will he receive that help? I hope not, because he will then seek owneship of everyone, not just real estate.

Edited by Raptor Witness
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10 hours ago, and-then said:

If this nonsense is supposed to be to convince people he's anti-Christ, you might want to look a little closer into the qualifications for that "position".  That guy will be loved and respected by MOST people on the planet because he's a P E A C E M A K E R.  Just sayin'...  People who have bought in so totally that they actually believe Trump is as evil as Satan, usually cannot even make a short list of his actual CRIMES.  Oh, they can trash talk for days, recycling the media message, but they cannot produce actual facts to prove he's evil, or even that he's worse than an average politician.  Frankly, I think those who are still so obsessed with him may have an undiagnosed form of mental illness.

You don't understand the difference between Donald Trump without help vs. having the help of something greater than he is. He isn't at the jumping off place, yet. You've watched too many movies, instead of reading the story of a rival appearing in Heaven, and then on Earth.

Unrestrained, is a word that makes little sense to the followers of Donald Trump. So who "unrestrains" him?

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45 minutes ago, Paranoid Android said:

Whatever metric they use,  they've installed Trump as a very tiny ($2.20 vs $2.80) underdog. 

It's more likely the punters have effectively forced the bookies to install Trump at that price.

It's a poll based on the dollars.

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2 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

It's more likely the punters have effectively forced the bookies to install Trump at that price.

It's a poll based on the dollars.

Are that many people betting on Trump? If that many people are betting,  how many people will be voting?

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7 minutes ago, Raptor Witness said:

Franklin Graham is a charlatan, sadly. His father was fine, except he was a coward around President Nixon, and gosh knows, who else .... certainly when it came to people of Jewish faith. Whether he really believed these things he said on the Nixon tapes, is hard to know, but it doesn't matter. He chose to be hanging around in the White House, instead of supporting a faith that is the bedrock of his own. He chose power and privilege over the goodness in his heart. That's not the way this works.

If "sense" as you say was being utilized, we would never have elected Donald Trump. I disliked the alternative, but I knew she would have been far safer, and safety is what was lost in the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and everything else that followed.

Most folks have watched too many movies to understand the forecast mechanics of what could happen. What is forecast is not like the film, The Omen. It's a good movie, and I enjoyed it as much as anyone else, but it doesn't follow the actual forecast of what is supposed to happen, and more importantly, why. 

I doubt Donald Trump can go any further politically, without the help of a Higher Power, because it was a Higher Power that arguably, removed him. Remarkably, in private, Trump initially blame thed "plague," yet his supporters were happy to blame the process. The question I now have, is will he receive that help? I hope not, because he will then seek owneship of everyone, not just real estate.

While i admit at times i enjoy your religious drama i dont think BOM is $atan or the antichrist, hes just a very loud bad person.,

Yes, he is done politically his running is just a dinner bell so to speak to his few hold out worshippers to send his gofundme $$$. Its working.

I dont think covid was from a higher power to get BOM out and lets face it while it was life costing and inexcusable it was just one link in a long long chain of bumbles and incompetence that handed the election to biden.  in 2016 a lot of people gave BOM a chance and their vote he didnt take it as the great honor it was but like with everything his ego just took it as the correct thing he deserved,

He went on to be himself those people expected more he failed epic and the people showed him in 2020 how they felt, no gods demons or election frauds needed.

 

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1 hour ago, Paranoid Android said:

Are that many people betting on Trump? If that many people are betting,  how many people will be voting?

Like I said before the odds change according to how much risk the bookie is carrying.  The odds dont reflect hiw many people are betting but how much money has been bet.

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25 minutes ago, Golden Duck said:

Like I said before the odds change according to how much risk the bookie is carrying.  The odds dont reflect hiw many people are betting but how much money has been bet.

True.  But they still have a base line by which the favourite is known,  and if the betting is impacting the odds, it means a huge amount of money is going in,  and going primarily one way. 

Or, maybe the betting agency knows more than you think. 

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52 minutes ago, Paranoid Android said:

True.  But they still have a base line by which the favourite is known,  and if the betting is impacting the odds, it means a huge amount of money is going in,  and going primarily one way. 

Or, maybe the betting agency knows more than you think. 

None of that is necessarily true.

Look at a market on the totalisator as soon as it opens - with a zero pool.  The odds aren't necessarily changed by large amounts of money, but large proportions of the pool.  You can think the pool as an analog for a sample size.  However, it is impossible for the totalisator to lose.

If you start with an biased SP market you will still need to adjust the odds to cover the risk.  Even then a bookie can layoff to reduce the risk even further.  Have you seen an agency guarantee they will match the highest odds from three TAB agencies?  Those agencies are obviously laying off.

The betting markets are simply a reflection of the risk being carried.  It is a poll measured in dollars.

Edited by Golden Duck
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14 hours ago, Liquid Gardens said:

I didn't think this part was particularly accurate, if we're going with what Christians believe about him:

"the proverbial Son of God, who was willing to lose everything to gain ultimate power at The End of our civilization"

It's probably just the phrasing, but I don't think the message is that Jesus lost everything 'to gain ultimate power', that makes it sound kinda selfish.  I think it's that he sacrificed himself out of love and compassion for sinners.  His sacrifice wasn't a trade or transaction for his benefit, if it was Jesus got the very raw end of the deal in that trade.

He was talking about the anti-christ, not Jesus.

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31 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

He was talking about the anti-christ, not Jesus.

If so my mistake, I've never heard the term 'proverbial Son of God' used in reference to the anti-christ though.

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11 hours ago, joc said:

He is incredibly bright.  You don't do the things he has done...including not be destroyed by the Media non-stop blitz of negative attack ads...without being exceptionally bright.

He is a foolish idiot.  Had he simply conceded the election (which indeed he did lose) and regrouped he would almost certainly be a shoe-in, in 2024.  But now he's shown front and center how much more he is about himself than he is about the nation.  I know you will say all of them are like that.  Sure, but all of the rest of them have enough sense to not stick it in our faces.  He is bad for America. 

Edited by OverSword
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14 minutes ago, Liquid Gardens said:

If so my mistake, I've never heard the term 'proverbial Son of God' used in reference to the anti-christ though.

Based on what I remember reading it did describe the anti-christ as some kind of messiah type, which means people thought he was represnting god.  But then, I may just be remembering some baptist version of Revelations, it has been a long time since I read it and all of it struck me as historical, similar to The Once and Future King, poking at the "powers that be", with a lot of archaic symbology that could be translated many ways in modern times but probably had different meaning than is now attributed to it.

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10 hours ago, the13bats said:

He went on to be himself those people expected more he failed epic and the people showed him in 2020 how they felt, no gods demons or election frauds needed.

The Donald has already admitted that a plague wiped out his chances.

You can argue it wasn’t orchestrated, but he believed this. Have you forgotten that he blames somebody else for everything that happens to him? 

Edited by Raptor Witness
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Trump likely is inspiring other bad Republican actors. Such as this dog killer from New York; newly sworn in Representative George Santos.

Despicable ….

At the 11:45 minute mark:

 

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