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Study finds mass shooters have distinct patterns of buying guns


Still Waters

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The increase in gun violence in the United States has put pressure on law enforcement and others to find ways to reduce it. In 2022, there were 647 mass shootings, up from 383 in 2016. There has also been a three-fold increase in active shooter events between 2000 and 2016. These are defined as "one or more individuals actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area."

A first-of-its-kind study examining records of gun purchases in California found that mass and active shooters have distinct patterns of buying guns compared to other legal purchasers.

https://phys.org/news/2023-03-mass-shooters-distinct-patterns-buying.html

 The UC Davis Violence Prevention Research Program (VPRP) research was published in the Journal of Criminal Justice.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0047235223000181?

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I'm sorry the title of this hit me as funny.   The bit about being older when making the first purchase doesn't make sense to me, but it is just California and I am not sure if there were any school shooting there.   

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Despite these supposed patterns they can't know until they start shooting people.  They're talking about legal purchases.

  • Quote

     

    • purchased more handguns in the year before the attack
    • purchased their first gun at an older age
    • were more likely to have a history of purchase denials
    • long guns
    • used during the attack
    • purchased out-of-state

     

     

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1 minute ago, Desertrat56 said:

I'm sorry the title of this hit me as funny.   The bit about being older when making the first purchase doesn't make sense to me, but it is just California and I am not sure if there were any school shooting there.   

This is talking about mass shooting and not necessarily school shootings.  A mass shooting is where there are at least four people shot in one incident.

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Just now, OverSword said:

This is talking about mass shooting and not necessarily school shootings.  A mass shooting is where there are at least four people shot in one incident.

I understand that.   It's just that a lot of the big  stories about mass shooters the shooters are 20 or younger.

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32 minutes ago, OverSword said:

This is talking about mass shooting and not necessarily school shootings.  A mass shooting is where there are at least four people shot in one incident.

Knowing a lot of gun owners this whole study seems flawed.

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2 hours ago, OverSword said:

This is talking about mass shooting and not necessarily school shootings.  A mass shooting is where there are at least four people shot in one incident.

Need a better definition of a mass shooter.

There is a big difference between a gang banger shooting four of his rivals vs a random person shooting four people with no connection.  Vast majority of mass shootings are the gang variety.

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3 hours ago, Desertrat56 said:

I'm sorry the title of this hit me as funny.   The bit about being older when making the first purchase doesn't make sense to me, but it is just California and I am not sure if there were any school shooting there.   

California is ranked #1 in school shootings.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2022-05-27/states-with-the-most-school-shootings

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1 minute ago, susieice said:

That sounds like they have they are #1 for the best school shootings.   I know it means they have more than any other state.   Someone earlier tried to tell me school shootings aren't mass shootings.   I think if anyone opens fire on any group of people it is a mass shooting whether 4 or more people die or not.

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21 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

That sounds like they have they are #1 for the best school shootings.   I know it means they have more than any other state.   Someone earlier tried to tell me school shootings aren't mass shootings.   I think if anyone opens fire on any group of people it is a mass shooting whether 4 or more people die or not.

All shootings where 4 or more die are mass shootings. It doesn't matter where it happens at. I agree. Just shooting into a crowd should be considered a mass shooting. Hopefully no one dies but somebody fired into a mass of people and tried none the less.

Edited by susieice
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On 3/21/2023 at 2:04 AM, Desertrat56 said:

I understand that.   It's just that a lot of the big  stories about mass shooters the shooters are 20 or younger.

Is that because there are more mass shooters within that demographic? Or is this simply what the media chooses to report on? 

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On 3/20/2023 at 11:01 AM, Desertrat56 said:

I'm sorry the title of this hit me as funny.   The bit about being older when making the first purchase doesn't make sense to me, but it is just California and I am not sure if there were any school shooting there.   

They are comparing mass shooter gun buyer vs gun buyer who don't go mass shoot anyone.

The mass shooters tend to buy their first gun at an older age than all the other guy buyers. 

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On 3/20/2023 at 11:02 AM, OverSword said:

were more likely to have a history of purchase denials

This raises a lot of red flags.

Clearly some gun shops are upholding their responsibility while others are not. 

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14 hours ago, spartan max2 said:

They are comparing mass shooter gun buyer vs gun buyer who don't go mass shoot anyone.

The mass shooters tend to buy their first gun at an older age than all the other guy buyers. 

It seems the article wasn't really comparing that, they were looking for gun buying patterns in the group of mass shooters.   I didn't see any mention of a control group in their research.

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39 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

It seems the article wasn't really comparing that, they were looking for gun buying patterns in the group of mass shooters.   I didn't see any mention of a control group in their research.

 

 

Quote

Compared to legal handgun purchasers, shooters had more purchases of handguns in the year prior to the attack (OR = 5.58, 95% CI: 2.34, 13.33), greater odds of a history of purchase denials (OR = 23.43, 95% CI: 4.55, 120.59), and fewer years between the last recorded purchase and the end date (OR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.90). Among the broader set of mass and active shooters, mixed model results indicated that the firearms acquired close to the attack were more likely to be long guns, discharged during the attack, purchased out-of-state, and acquired by methods other than through a licensed dealer.

They used the California register database. So it's comparing to the rest of the dataset of legal gun purchasers.

Quote

The database has recorded information on all authorized handgun purchasers and transactions in the state since 1985, with detailed transaction data beginning in 1996.

 

Edited by spartan max2
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On 3/20/2023 at 11:03 AM, OverSword said:

A mass shooting is where there are at least four people shot in one incident.

Not always.  There is no standard definition of mass shooting and pretty much every organization uses their own definition largely to achieve what they want. 

Seen one group use a definition of a mass shooting to be any time a gun is fired and at least three people end up injured regardless of if the injury was a direct result of the gun fire or not.  Seen other definitions of mass shooting being where 5+ people have to be killed, not wounded or hit by gunfire but killed from being shot, and the 5+ killed can not include immediate family members, law enforcement, gang members, or the shooter themselves.

Defining mass shootings is difficult and largely comes down to what one wants to achieve.  This results in comparing statistics of mass shootings between organizations near impossible.

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4 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Not always.  There is no standard definition of mass shooting and pretty much every organization uses their own definition largely to achieve what they want. 

Seen one group use a definition of a mass shooting to be any time a gun is fired and at least three people end up injured regardless of if the injury was a direct result of the gun fire or not.  Seen other definitions of mass shooting being where 5+ people have to be killed, not wounded or hit by gunfire but killed from being shot, and the 5+ killed can not include immediate family members, law enforcement, gang members, or the shooter themselves.

Defining mass shootings is difficult and largely comes down to what one wants to achieve.  This results in comparing statistics of mass shootings between organizations near impossible.

Well I'll just go by the one the FBI uses.  https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/analysis-recent-mass-shootings

Quote

For the purposes of tracking crime data, the FBI defines a "mass shooting" as any incident in which at least four people are murdered with a gun. 

 

Edited by OverSword
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39 minutes ago, OverSword said:

The FBI definition is fine.  I was more reminding people that cross comparing statistics on mass shootings doesnt work and the definition used in thd statistics needs to be known.

For example, depending on the definition of mass shootings used there were between 6 and 690 mass shootings in 2021.  

 

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2 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

The FBI definition is fine.  I was more reminding people that cross comparing statistics on mass shootings doesnt work and the definition used in thd statistics needs to be known.

For example, depending on the definition of mass shootings used there were between 6 and 690 mass shootings in 2021.  

 

Where are you getting that from?  Where are you finding other definitions of a mass shooting?

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On 3/20/2023 at 11:03 AM, OverSword said:

This is talking about mass shooting and not necessarily school shootings.  A mass shooting is where there are at least four people shot in one incident.

is it 4? I thought it was 3 or more wounded? I think we are too quick to label "mass shootings" in this day and age but that doesn't mean I don't think guns should be completely gotten rid of. 

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9 minutes ago, OverSword said:

Where are you getting that from?  Where are you finding other definitions of a mass shooting?

Its literally on the wikipedia page of mass shooting under definition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_shooting?wprov=sfla1

Some of the definitions mentioned.

4 or more people shot regardless if killed or wounded.

5 or more people shot with no cool off period

3 or more people killed by guns excluding gang attacks, armed robbery, and attacks by unidentified perpetrators

4 people shot, injured or killed, minus the shooter

FBI defines it as four people killed by a gun but Congress defines it as three.

Ultimately there are a bunch of different definitions and that is how you get one statistic saying 6 mass shootings in 2021 and another saying 690 mass shootings in 2021.

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1 minute ago, DarkHunter said:

Its literally on the wikipedia page of mass shooting under definition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_shooting?wprov=sfla1

Some of the definitions mentioned.

4 or more people shot regardless if killed or wounded.

5 or more people shot with no cool off period

3 or more people killed by guns excluding gang attacks, armed robbery, and attacks by unidentified perpetrators

4 people shot, injured or killed, minus the shooter

FBI defines it as four people killed by a gun but Congress defines it as three.

Ultimately there are a bunch of different definitions and that is how you get one statistic saying 6 mass shootings in 2021 and another saying 690 mass shootings in 2021.

Well I think it must be four since the government website is probably more accurate or reliable than Wikipedia.

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1 minute ago, OverSword said:

Well I think it must be four since the government website is probably more accurate or reliable than Wikipedia.

FBI defines it as 4 killed but Congress defines it as 3 so which one is the correct one.

Even then wikipedia is just a collection of different definitions, you can check their sourcing if you want.

Edited by DarkHunter
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