Russian forces appear to lose steam as Ukraine prepares offensiveI’m

[Unusual Tournament]

Russian forces appear to lose steam as Ukraine prepares offensive
 

Putin strengthens his ties with China’s Xi Jinping in the 56th week of the war, but his forces seem to have lost momentum on the battlefield.
 

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2023/3/23/russian-forces-lose-steam-as-ukraine-prepares-counteroffensive

[+Nuclear Wessel]

Ukraine is about to overwhelm Russia.

This will be a sight to behold.

[Trelane]

You don't say. Color me shocked.

 

I wonder if it's the lack of equipment and munitions or the reports that they aren't getting paid anymore.

Edited March 23, 2023 by Trelane

[Unusual Tournament]

20 minutes ago, Trelane said:

You don't say. Color me shocked.

 

I wonder if it's the lack of equipment and munitions or the reports that they aren't getting paid anymore.

Not sure how reliable this article is. So wouldn’t get to excited 
 

The war is effectively WW1 trenches and urban assaults. The troop’s Ukraine have raised a fresh contingent 80,000 strong and their equipment is western. So it will be interesting. 
 

an interesting foot note: there seems to be some type of divide between Russian speaking Ukrainian soldiers and Western Ukrainians. A lot of Ukrainian soldiers are defecting 

[DarkHunter]

49 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Ukraine is about to overwhelm Russia.

This will be a sight to behold.

Ukranian Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi has been making interesting comments recent about Bakhmut and eastern Ukraine.

For those that dont know Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi lead the initial defense of Kyiv during the Russian invasion and later lead the Kharkiv counter offensive that saw Russian forces pushed away from the city of Kharkiv and the eastern front pushed back to the Svatove-Kreminna line.  From what I been hearing he was the main general insisting on defending Bakhmut and not withdrawing to the next defensive position.

Also interesting is on March 20 Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi returned to active military service and was appointed deputy commander in chief of armed forces.  What makes Lieutenant General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi interesting is was the one in charge of the Great Raid of 2014 where he lead a raid of 470 km of which 170 km were behind enemy lines.

[+Nuclear Wessel]

31 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

an interesting foot note: there seems to be some type of divide between Russian speaking Ukrainian soldiers and Western Ukrainians. A lot of Ukrainian soldiers are defecting 

Should we approach the reliability of this claim to the same degree that you suggested for the posted article:

Quote

Not sure how reliable this article is. So wouldn’t get to excited 

Also, do you have a source?

[Occult1]

51 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Not sure how reliable this article is. So wouldn’t get to excited 
 

The whole ''Russia is losing steam'' that mainstream media have hold on to is based on a statement from Ukranian Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky.  @DarkHunter rightfully pointed that out.

What is propaganda and what is not is difficult to assess at this point.

Edited March 24, 2023 by Occult1

[Unusual Tournament]

48 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

The whole ''Russia is losing steam'' that mainstream media have hold on to is based on a statement from Ukranian Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky.  @DarkHunter rightfully pointed that out.

What is propaganda and what is not is difficult to assess at this point.

There must be some truth. There’s plenty of excitement. 

Maybe this is a roll of the dice for Ukraine. The troops are green. How well they’re going to do against the Russian army with momentum is another thing.

When America starts talking about a cease fire then we know the war for Ukraine is coming to an end. Until then I’m assuming there’s still fight in Ukraine 

[Unusual Tournament]

Blinken has mentioned Ukraine getting back territory other than war. Looks like a carrot is being dangled in front of Russia after all. 

[pellinore]

5 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Ukranian Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi has been making interesting comments recent about Bakhmut and eastern Ukraine.

 

There will be a counter-offensive soon, that is for sure. I wonder where it will be? I'm betting not Bakhmut.

Russia-Ukraine war live: Bakhmut counteroffensive starts soon, says Ukrainian ground forces commander (theguardian.com)

[+and-then]

48 minutes ago, pellinore said:

There will be a counter-offensive soon, that is for sure. I wonder where it will be? I'm betting not Bakhmut.

Russia-Ukraine war live: Bakhmut counteroffensive starts soon, says Ukrainian ground forces commander (theguardian.com)

Unless Ukraine is sending troops without armor, I think the mud season will have to pass before any major counteroffensive.  

[DarkHunter]

16 hours ago, pellinore said:

There will be a counter-offensive soon, that is for sure. I wonder where it will be? I'm betting not Bakhmut.

Russia-Ukraine war live: Bakhmut counteroffensive starts soon, says Ukrainian ground forces commander (theguardian.com)

Almost certainly a counter offensive on the southern front, most likely targets for a southern offensive are Melitopol, Berdyansk, and Mariupol.  If the Ukranian military would go for all of them or only one or two, let alone which ones isnt obvious.

Eastern front there are only two main targets and that is Svatove and Bakhmut, there is Kreminna but taking Kreminna would only really help in liberating Severodonetsk and Lysychansk but in the larger strategic sense taking Svatove would open the way to Starobilsk which would probably result in Russia abandoning all of northern Luhansk oblast.

Bakhmut in and of itself isnt that important, no major routes to anything important but what makes Bakhmut important is that Wagner is there.  Essentially the Russian MoD isnt really supporting Wagner and both the Russian military and Prigozhin know this.  Either Prigozhin will face the destruction of Wagner or pull back from the front or have them exit Ukraine completely.  Either way a counter offensive has a good chance of creating a large hole in the Russian line that would allow Ukraine to attack far more important targets.

My guess is counter attack towards Melitopol and Mariupol on the south and a counter attack at Bakhmut.  Northern Luhansk oblast doesnt have much strategic value and can be liberated later especially as only two large towns/small cities supply the whole area due to limited rail lines.

[Occult1]

Russia presses along Ukraine front after reports of Bakhmut slowdown

''NEAR KREMINNA, Ukraine, March 24 (Reuters) - Russian forces attacked northern and southern stretches of the front in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region on Friday, even as Kyiv said Moscow's assault was flagging near the city of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian military reports described heavy fighting along a line running from Lyman to Kupiansk, as well as in the south at Avdiivka on the outskirts of the Russian-held city of Donetsk.

Both areas have been major Russian targets in a winter campaign to fully capture Ukraine's industrialised Donbas region. The offensive has so far yielded scant gains despite the deaths of thousands of troops on both sides in the war's bloodiest fighting.''

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-presses-along-ukraine-front-after-reports-bakhmut-slowdown-2023-03-24/

[Unusual Tournament]

1 minute ago, Occult1 said:

Russia presses along Ukraine front after reports of Bakhmut slowdown

''NEAR KREMINNA, Ukraine, March 24 (Reuters) - Russian forces attacked northern and southern stretches of the front in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region on Friday, even as Kyiv said Moscow's assault was flagging near the city of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian military reports described heavy fighting along a line running from Lyman to Kupiansk, as well as in the south at Avdiivka on the outskirts of the Russian-held city of Donetsk.

Both areas have been major Russian targets in a winter campaign to fully capture Ukraine's industrialised Donbas region. The offensive has so far yielded scant gains despite the deaths of thousands of troops on both sides in the war's bloodiest fighting.''

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-presses-along-ukraine-front-after-reports-bakhmut-slowdown-2023-03-24/

Realignment along a 15,000 Km front by numerically superior Russia is always gonna be a luxury Ukraine cannot afford. 
 

The more Ukraine is keep moving the less it can actually fight. 

[Unusual Tournament]

5 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Almost certainly a counter offensive on the southern front, most likely targets for a southern offensive are Melitopol, Berdyansk, and Mariupol.  If the Ukranian military would go for all of them or only one or two, let alone which ones isnt obvious.

Eastern front there are only two main targets and that is Svatove and Bakhmut, there is Kreminna but taking Kreminna would only really help in liberating Severodonetsk and Lysychansk but in the larger strategic sense taking Svatove would open the way to Starobilsk which would probably result in Russia abandoning all of northern Luhansk oblast.

Bakhmut in and of itself isnt that important, no major routes to anything important but what makes Bakhmut important is that Wagner is there.  Essentially the Russian MoD isnt really supporting Wagner and both the Russian military and Prigozhin know this.  Either Prigozhin will face the destruction of Wagner or pull back from the front or have them exit Ukraine completely.  Either way a counter offensive has a good chance of creating a large hole in the Russian line that would allow Ukraine to attack far more important targets.

My guess is counter attack towards Melitopol and Mariupol on the south and a counter attack at Bakhmut.  Northern Luhansk oblast doesnt have much strategic value and can be liberated later especially as only two large towns/small cities supply the whole area due to limited rail lines.

The front is far too long and fluid for numerically inferior Ukraine to dictate any counter offensive. 

[spartan max2]

18 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

The front is far too long and fluid for numerically inferior Ukraine to dictate any counter offensive. 

They had a decently successful counter offense in the past though 

[Unusual Tournament]

12 minutes ago, spartan max2 said:

They had a decently successful counter offense in the past though 

Different Russian army. 

[DarkHunter]

46 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

The front is far too long and fluid for numerically inferior Ukraine to dictate any counter offensive. 

Ukraine is numerically inferior in terms of overall population.  In terms of military as Russia hasnt declared war they are limited to using their contract military which is about 400,000 soldiers of which not all of them are fighting in Ukraine.  Realistically Russia has at most about 300,000 contract soldiers in Ukraine.  With Wagner it's at most another 50,000 soldiers and with the Donetsk Peoples Republic and Luhansk Peoples Republic at most add in another 100,000 but probably closer to another 75,000.  Ultimately at most Russia has probably about 450,000 combatants in Ukraine.

As for Ukraine the Ukranian military realistically has between 500,000 to 700,000 soldiers between its regular military and territorial defense forces depending on what estimates one wants to use.  

Even if Ukraine was out numbered they could still dictate a counter offensive.  

Edited March 25, 2023 by DarkHunter

[Unusual Tournament]

1 minute ago, DarkHunter said:

Ukraine is numerically inferior in terms of overall population.  In terms of military as Russia hasnt declared war they are limited to using their contract military which is about 400,000 soldiers of which not all of them are fighting in Ukraine.  Realistically Russia hasn't most about 300,000 contract soldiers in Ukraine.  With Wagner it's at most another 50,000 soldiers and with the Donetsk Peoples Republic and Luhansk Peoples Republic at most add in another 100,000 but probably closer to another 75,000.  Ultimately at most Russia has probably about 450,000 combatants in Ukraine.

As for Ukraine the Ukranian military realistically has between 500,000 to 700,000 soldiers between its regular military and territorial defense forces depending on what estimates one wants to use.  

Even if Ukraine was out numbered they could still dictate a counter offensive.  

Ukraine is not gonna get the territory Russia is occupying back. Russia has vast reserves of manpower and weapons. They out gun Ukraine. If the Chinese start resuppling Russia it will be harder still. 
 

This war ended 6 months ago. When Putin and Russia were on the ropes, Ukraine and America should have stopped the war. Now Russia is on top. Asking them or taking from them is next to impossible. 
 

Ukraine over played their hand. 

[DarkHunter]

1 minute ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Ukraine is not gonna get the territory Russia is occupying back. Russia has vast reserves of manpower and weapons. They out gun Ukraine. If the Chinese start resuppling Russia it will be harder still. 
 

This war ended 6 months ago. When Putin and Russia were on the ropes, Ukraine and America should have stopped the war. Now Russia is on top. Asking them or taking from them is next to impossible. 
 

Ukraine over played their hand. 

So more pro-Russia garbage.

I'll make sure to bring this post back up when Ukraine starts its counter offensive and liberates even more territory.

[Unusual Tournament]

Just now, DarkHunter said:

So more pro-Russia garbage.

I'll make sure to bring this post back up when Ukraine starts its counter offensive and liberates even more territory.

Hopefully Ukraines victory will also lower your blood pressure and make sleeping easier

[jmccr8]

1 minute ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Ukraine is not gonna get the territory Russia is occupying back. Russia has vast reserves of manpower and weapons. They out gun Ukraine. If the Chinese start resuppling Russia it will be harder still. 
 

This war ended 6 months ago. When Putin and Russia were on the ropes, Ukraine and America should have stopped the war. Now Russia is on top. Asking them or taking from them is next to impossible. 
 

Ukraine over played their hand. 

Hi UT

I think some of you are overplaying China’s support. Yes they can supply a limited amount of weapons to Russia at the risk of being heavily sanctioned by their largest consumer base which will cause economic problems when they are already having financial difficulties. Russia doesn’t have any money that would offset losses from western sanctions and resources they need. China doesn’t want to shortchange their military stock pile to put themselves in a weak position so there are limits to what they will if they do furnish Russia with enough weapons to continue to fight a losing conflict but might give them enough to gang themselves so that China can step in to take advantage of a weak country.

If the west sanctions China it will take a couple of decades to create proper resource cultivation and supply routes as Russia does not have the infrastructure to deliver resources in the volume that China would need to sustain itself never mind keeping Russia solvent.

[Occult1]

Russia wants demilitarised buffer zones in Ukraine, says Putin ally

''MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia wants to create demilitarised buffer zones inside Ukraine around areas it has annexed, an ally of President Vladimir Putin said on Friday, saying it might be necessary to push deeper into Ukraine if such zones cannot be set up.

More than a year into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Putin's core war aims remain unfulfilled despite Russian control of nearly a fifth of the country.

Neither side shows any sign of laying down arms. Hundreds of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or seriously wounded, according to Western military estimates.

Former President Dmitry Medvedev, who casts himself as Putin's most publicly hawkish official, said Russia needed demilitarised corridors around the areas it is claiming - and which Ukraine says it will never accept Russian control of.''

https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/world/russia-wants-demilitarised-buffer-zones-in-ukraine-says-putin-ally/ar-AA191QrM

[+Nuclear Wessel]

29 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

it might be necessary to push deeper into Ukraine if such zones cannot be set up.

As if Russia can afford to commit forces to a push deeper into Ukrainian territory without the risk of a logistical catastrophe. 

[pellinore]

34 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Russia wants demilitarised buffer zones in Ukraine, says Putin ally

''MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia wants to create demilitarised buffer zones inside Ukraine around areas it has annexed, an ally of President Vladimir Putin said on Friday, saying it might be necessary to push deeper into Ukraine if such zones cannot be set up.

https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/world/russia-wants-demilitarised-buffer-zones-in-ukraine-says-putin-ally/ar-AA191QrM

We can assume they haven't pushed deeper up till now as a "goodwill gesture"? The Russian Army is the most generous army in history, whenever they are pushed hard they make goodwill gestures.