Russian troops can reach Kiev if needed

[+Nuclear Wessel]

13 minutes ago, and-then said:

if they are to prevail at any level.

So you think that the tide is favouring Russia because they have 7x the (remaining Ukrainian) population while simultaneously trying to fund the war? Do you think that Russia can reasonably survive funding the war while also trying to maintain peace and order, domestically? Think about that for a second. Frankly, I don’t think you realize how dire of a situation Russia is experiencing right now. 

I think at some point Russia is going to come to a head and they will need to make a very difficult decision—either significantly escalate in an attempt to de-escalate with the West/Ukraine, or cut their losses and try to save face, which could threaten Putin’s political standing and make him seem weak.

Neither country will have a good outcome from this, I’m afraid, but Ukraine is never going to surrender. They will keep fighting, quite literally, to the last Ukrainian. 

Edited March 25, 2023 by Nuclear Wessel

[+and-then]

56 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

You’re already neck-deep in Russian propaganda, so that doesn’t surprise me. I see you. 

So you say.  Yet, you no doubt reject that your "information sources" are possibly just as suspect, right?  That aside, do you disagree that IF Ukraine cannot sustain a winning counteroffensive against the Russians, then your media sources have to be seen as in error?

[+and-then]

53 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Frankly, I don’t think you realize how dire of a situation Russia is experiencing right now

There's a LOT I'm unsure of and I readily admit it.  The thing is, I believe neither side in this conflict is being truthful about what is happening on the ground.  Ukraine doesn't allow reporting of casualties at all.  No one has an accurate count of that number.  I've heard reports of 100 - 150K DEAD.  X2 wounded.  Is that accurate?  No way to know, but the fact that the government in Kyiv withholds all numbers, doesn't give a lot of confidence.

For every report you've seen and posted about how dire the Russian position is, there is one to say the same about Ukraine.  THAT IS MY POINT.  You and the other pro-Ukraine members reject even the idea that your media sources could be lying.  I FULLY understand that any source I see online could be lying.  The bottom line in the real world is that Russians are not going to rebel and overthrow Putin.  There is zero evidence this is going to happen.  That means that this war will continue until he dies of old age or the Russian military is totally destroyed and thrown out of Ukraine.  

[bmk1245]

50 minutes ago, and-then said:

There's a LOT I'm unsure of and I readily admit it.  The thing is, I believe neither side in this conflict is being truthful about what is happening on the ground.  Ukraine doesn't allow reporting of casualties at all.  No one has an accurate count of that number.  I've heard reports of 100 - 150K DEAD.  X2 wounded.  Is that accurate?  No way to know, but the fact that the government in Kyiv withholds all numbers, doesn't give a lot of confidence.

For every report you've seen and posted about how dire the Russian position is, there is one to say the same about Ukraine.  THAT IS MY POINT.  You and the other pro-Ukraine members reject even the idea that your media sources could be lying.  I FULLY understand that any source I see online could be lying.  The bottom line in the real world is that Russians are not going to rebel and overthrow Putin.  There is zero evidence this is going to happen.  That means that this war will continue until he dies of old age or the Russian military is totally destroyed and thrown out of Ukraine.  

What your view about Nickel Grass? Was it wrong?

[Stiff]

6 hours ago, Occult1 said:

The fall of Bakhmut still appears inevitable. Wagner group controls more than half of the city and Ukrainian forces are semi-encircled.

 

5 hours ago, Occult1 said:

You do realize that Bakhmut is almost entirely Wagner group? Ukraine is fighting a PMC backed by Russian firepower.

The Wagner Group is preparing to refocus its efforts in Africa and away from Ukraine amid a long-running dispute with Moscow, it has been reported....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/23/yevgeny-prigohzins-wagner-group-refocus-africa-failures-ukraine/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11898015/Wagner-mercenaries-refocus-Africa-huge-losses-Ukraine-amid-fall-Putin.html

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/russia-bakhmut-ministry-of-defence-ukraine-war-wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin-b1069900.html

[DarkHunter]

6 hours ago, and-then said:

There are fewer than 20 million people left in Ukraine.  Russia still has roughly 140 million.  Obviously only a small number of that total - for either nation - could be drafted into combat but with 7X the population,

That is complete and utter nonsense and garbage, not even sure where you got such an idea.

The pre-war population of Ukraine was approximately 43.79 million people.  The pre-war population of Russia was approximately 143.4 million people.  Pre-war Russia had about 3.27 times higher population.

For refugees approximately 8 million Ukrainians are refugees in various countries while 5 million are internally displaced.  The majority of the Ukranian refugees have been the elderly, women, and children.  For Russia approximately 1 million men of fighting age has fled Russia since the start of the war to avoid being sent to Ukraine to fight.

Ultimately your ***** Russia having 7 times the population is just complete and utter nonsense which is simply not grounded in reality.  Guess it is just another one of your opinions so it doesnt need to have any logical or factual basis.

[+Hammerclaw]

7 hours ago, and-then said:

But you'll note the difference in combat-eligible resource pools.  From what I've seen, Ukraine has already had 3-4 "mobilizations".  There are fewer than 20 million people left in Ukraine.  Russia still has roughly 140 million.  Obviously only a small number of that total - for either nation - could be drafted into combat but with 7X the population, a total willingness to keep feeding bodies into the grinder, and an armaments industry currently being put on full capacity, Ukraine, at some point is going to have to have help in the form of NATO boots, or a level of sophisticated firepower unseen so far in this war.  if they are to prevail at any level.

So far, this war hasn't yielded much positive result for NATO or the wider west.  Yes, the west IS coming together and are more coordinated than they were prior to last February but the price for that is a new alignment of other world power centers that are ready to engage in more focused, blatant competition with America and the EU.  The fact remains, we have no idea how these changes are going to affect world peace in the coming years.

There's over thirty million people left in Ukraine and that's millions more than the combined population of the North and South during the American Civil War that lasted four years. The bulk of the people who fled Ukraine were women and children. 

It's funny that the Zionists in Palestine are just as heavily outnumbered, but you don't think they should give up and surrender.

Edited March 25, 2023 by Hammerclaw

[Occult1]

6 hours ago, Stiff said:

 

The Wagner Group is preparing to refocus its efforts in Africa and away from Ukraine amid a long-running dispute with Moscow, it has been reported....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/23/yevgeny-prigohzins-wagner-group-refocus-africa-failures-ukraine/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11898015/Wagner-mercenaries-refocus-Africa-huge-losses-Ukraine-amid-fall-Putin.html

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/russia-bakhmut-ministry-of-defence-ukraine-war-wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin-b1069900.html

From your article:

''On his Telegram channel, Prigozhin denied Bloomberg's reports that Wagner was looking to retreat from Ukraine.

'It seems that Bloomberg knows better than we do what we are going to do. 

'As long as our country needs us, we will remain fighting in Ukraine,' he wrote.''

[Tatetopa]

Both sides gain an advantage by slanting the narrative in their favor.  Talk is cheap as they say.

There seem to be a couple of facts beyond the spin.

India has been buying military equipment from Russia for years.  Russia can't deliver.

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/russia-cannot-meet-arms-delivery-commitments-because-war-indian-air-force-says-2023-03-23/

NEW DELHI, March 23 (Reuters) - Russia is unable to deliver vital defence supplies it had committed to India's military because of the war in Ukraine, the Indian Air Force (IAF) says.

New Delhi has been worried that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 could affect military supplies from India's largest source of defence equipment. The IAF statement is the first official confirmation of such shortfalls.

The IAF statement was made to a parliamentiary committee, which published it on its website on Tuesday. An IAF representative told the panel Russia had planned a "major delivery" this year that will not take place.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/22/russia-hauls-1950s-era-tanks-storage-join-battlefield/#:~:text=Russia appears to have pulled,equipment in Russia's far east.

Russia appears to have pulled 1950s-era tanks out of storage in the latest sign of a serious armour shortage in its army. Pictures and video have emerged of what experts say are T-54 and T-55 tanks being transported by rail from a military depot for mothballed equipment in Russia's far east.3 days ago

It might lead you to believe that regardless of what they are saying, Russia ain't doing so well.

[Tatetopa]

5 hours ago, Occult1 said:

From your article:

''On his Telegram channel, Prigozhin denied Bloomberg's reports that Wagner was looking to retreat from Ukraine.

'It seems that Bloomberg knows better than we do what we are going to do. 

'As long as our country needs us, we will remain fighting in Ukraine,' he wrote.''

How quickly do you think Prigozhin would fall out of a 12th floor window in his trench if he said any differently?

Consider how many oligarchs have died or disappeared since the war started.   They were men standing in the flow of money from raw materials, from manufacturing, and from finance.  Not only were they getting fabulously wealthy, they had power.  In times of uncertainty, men with power can be a danger to the ruler.  They were a threat to Putin.  Even a loyal Prigozhin may have too much power to let Putin rest easy.  The more capable Prighozin is, the more dangerous he becomes.  Ironically, incompetent, dependent commanders may not win a war, but they are less threat to Putin.

[Occult1]

6 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

Even a loyal Prigozhin may have too much power to let Putin rest easy.  The more capable Prighozin is, the more dangerous he becomes.  Ironically, incompetent, dependent commanders may not win a war, but they are less threat to Putin.

Prigozhin is able to recruit manpower outside any legal framework. That's his main selling point.

The losses on the Russian side in Bakhmut are mostly convicts recruited from Russian prisons or from the ghettos. On the other hand, Ukraine is losing it's regular/conscripted troops.

I am not convinced Prigozhin- Wagner wants to end the fight as soon as possible in Bakhmut. There is a possiblity that Ukraine has been lured into a trap of expending more resources to avoid defeat.

 

[...]Prigozhin has referred to Bakhmut as a "meat grinder," and said his men's task there is to bleed the Ukrainian army dry.

Ukrainian and Western officials have compared the battles around Bakhmut to the First World War, and accused Wagner of using convicts in human wave attacks. According to the United States, by mid-February Wagner had suffered more than 30,000 casualties in Ukraine, including 9,000 dead, almost all of them convicts.[...]

https://www.voanews.com/a/wagner-s-convicts-tell-of-horrors-of-ukraine-war-and-loyalty-to-their-leader/7008254.html

Edited March 26, 2023 by Occult1

[+Hammerclaw]

15 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Prigozhin is able to recruit manpower outside any legal framework. That's his main selling point.

The losses on the Russian side in Bakhmut are mostly convicts recruited from Russian prisons or from the ghettos. On the other hand, Ukraine is losing it's regular/conscripted troops.

I am not convinced Prigozhin- Wagner wants to end the fight as soon as possible in Bakhmut. There is a possiblity that Ukraine has been lured into a trap of expending more resources to avoid defeat.

 

[...]Prigozhin has referred to Bakhmut as a "meat grinder," and said his men's task there is to bleed the Ukrainian army dry.

Ukrainian and Western officials have compared the battles around Bakhmut to the First World War, and accused Wagner of using convicts in human wave attacks. According to the United States, by mid-February Wagner had suffered more than 30,000 casualties in Ukraine, including 9,000 dead, almost all of them convicts.[...]

https://www.voanews.com/a/wagner-s-convicts-tell-of-horrors-of-ukraine-war-and-loyalty-to-their-leader/7008254.html

No, the Ukrainians could withdraw at any time. It is Russia who can not, certainly not their Wagner mercenaries, hemmed in on one side by the Ukrainian regulars and on the other side, the Russian army who are most unsympathetic to their predicament. They have been utilized as suicide troops against their will. They serve that purpose and weaken Prigozhin as any kind of existential threat to Putin's hegemony.

[Tatetopa]

1 hour ago, Occult1 said:

Prigozhin is able to recruit manpower outside any legal framework. That's his main selling point.

The losses on the Russian side in Bakhmut are mostly convicts recruited from Russian prisons or from the ghettos. On the other hand, Ukraine is losing it's regular/conscripted troops.

I am not convinced Prigozhin- Wagner wants to end the fight as soon as possible in Bakhmut. There is a possiblity that Ukraine has been lured into a trap of expending more resources to avoid defeat.

Play the game either way you want and the end is still the same.

Prigozhen fails miserable but reduces Ukrainian forces.  He dies on the front or is returned in disgrace and disappears.

Prighozen utterly defeats Ukraine and becomes the hero of the Ukraine war.  He dies tragically or he returns to cheers and glory  then disappears.

Either way Putin removes  Prighozin as a threat to his power.  Of course, Prighozin has been playing this game all his life too. He know that the way to win and survive is to replace Putin.  Ukraine is secondary for him, doesn't affect the outcome except to stall a bit longer and hopefully for him, weaken Putin.

Its pretty hard for either party to back out now.  The game has already started.  

To steal a line from  Macbeth,  I throw my warlike shield. Lay on, Macduff, And damn'd be him that first cries, "Hold, enough!" —Macbeth's final words.

[Duke Wellington]

On 3/25/2023 at 3:29 AM, Occult1 said:

''In Bakhmut itself, Ukrainian troops, who weeks ago appeared likely to pull back, have instead dug in, a strategy some Western military experts say is risky given the need to conserve forces for a counterattack.''

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-presses-along-ukraine-front-after-reports-bakhmut-slowdown-2023-03-24/

 

Ukraine has committed more resources into the Bakhmut fight instead of completely withdrawing.

The fall of Bakhmut still appears inevitable. Wagner group controls more than half of the city and Ukrainian forces are semi-encircled.

Its got 70,000 troops crammed into a tiny area.

It must be a blood bath.

[Alchopwn]

Ukraine has the Azov Brigade.  Russia apparently has the As If brigade.