Jump to content
Join the Unexplained Mysteries community today! It's free and setting up an account only takes a moment.
- Sign In or Create Account -

Russia's failed winter Offensive


DarkHunter

Recommended Posts

Since it is now the start of April it seems safe to say the Russian winter offensive has failed, especially since there was a deadline to achieve the objectives set by Putin.  Starting in February, the winter offensive began with a order by Putin to the Russian military to capture all of Donetsk oblast by March 31, and so far the Russian military has yet to take Bakhmut and has taken extensive casualties on assaults on Vuhledar mostly in the form of two elite naval infantry brigades being destroyed.  

The real question though is what is going to happen to the Russian military leadership due to this failure.  As overall commander of Ukranian forces General Gerasimov failed to capture all of Donetsk oblast, he failed to even change the front lines significantly.  Wagner/Prigozhin has also failed in capturing Bakhmut.  Both the Russian military and Wagner frequently blame each other for the failure to achieve strategic or operational objectives.

Ultimately it comes down to will Putin side with the Russian MoD or Prigozhin and will there be any consequences among the leadership for failing a direct and rather public order.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

I don't think there was a 'major' Russian offensive in the winter as announced by Western media.

Sure, they intensified their assault in some parts of eastern and southern Ukraine but the much 'hyped' Russian offensive didn't occur.

Edited by Occult1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have seen mention of a deadline being passed around by various sources over the past n months, but to be honest I haven’t done much research into the basis of this deadline. Do you know where it came from? Is it because he wanted to start harvesting whatever natural resources he could from the Donbas region to start the process of replacing all of the things (including money)  that have been lost to Ukraine as a result of some economical point-of-no-return due to the sanctions starting to significantly impact Russia’s economy? It does seem like that may be a factor at play in the basis of the deadline, especially considering how he has officially stated (recently) that sanctions can really hurt Russia, which is quite a shift in his tone from when he was downplaying the effects of the sanctions on the economy. I wonder if, too, there have been internal conflicts among the “shareholders” (I.e. Xi and Putin) which may have helped him realize that he won’t necessarily be able to sustain things as they are for much longer, which could be evinced by his sudden aggressive push to having tactical nukes stationed in Belarus as some kind of posturing. It very much seems like he is starting to lose his grip and is becoming increasingly desperate. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

I don't think there was a 'major' Russian offensive in the winter as announced by Western media.

Sure, they intensified their assault in some parts of eastern and southern Ukraine but the much 'hyped' Russian offensive didn't occur.

Unsurprising for you to downplay Russian failures, so not gaining any ground along the Kremmina to Svatove line despite near daily assaults, the loss of at minimum two elite naval infantry brigades on attacking Vuhledar, a general failed push along the southern front, inability to capture Bakhmut despite sending tens of thousands of troops to capture Bakhmut.

You might not want to admit it but the offensive did occur and it failed horribly.  

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Unsurprising for you to downplay Russian failures, so not gaining any ground along the Kremmina to Svatove line despite near daily assaults, the loss of at minimum two elite naval infantry brigades on attacking Vuhledar, a general failed push along the southern front, inability to capture Bakhmut despite sending tens of thousands of troops to capture Bakhmut.

You might not want to admit it but the offensive did occur and it failed horribly.  

I did believe in one big, major Russian winter offensive at some point but then realized it was only the Western media pushing that narrative.

What we have seen instead are grinding assaults on various points along the frontline that are intended to breach and weaken the Ukrainian defenses.

 

''Shea, who was deputy assistant secretary general for emerging security challenges at NATO until 2018, said he did not expect a big bang start to the offensive.

Instead, he expects Russia to “grind out these slow advances,” a tactic it has been employing in the Donbas in recent months which has seen Russian forces make small but steady advances — albeit at the expense of heavy casualties.

“The Russians are going to make sure they’ve got overwhelming superiority, advance a couple of kilometers, capture a village, and keep going with that step-by-step kind of progress,” Shea said.''

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/what-to-expect-from-russias-much-awaited-offensive-in-ukraine.html

Edited by Occult1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Do you know where it came from?

All that is really known is that Putin gave the March 31 deadline.  From what I been hearing the reason was more appearance than anything else, the Russian military had just lost approximately 20% of the territory it was occupying and lost the only major Ukranian city they had managed to capture.  From what I understand it was more about needing a victory than continued reports of Russian losses and the Russian military being pushed back on multiple fronts.

Economics might play a part as well, especially given his change in rhetoric how sanctions can hurt the Russian economy.  One thing that is frequently ignored is that the measures that kept the Russian economy from imploding were extreme and could only last for a relatively short period of time.  The best example being the Russian ruble.  Russia only managed to save it by banning everyone inside Russia from exchanging it for other foreign currencies and forcing Russian companies to buy rubles with their stockpiles of foreign currency.  While in the short run that saves the ruble eventually those companies will run out of foreign currency and when they do stuff will get extremely bad for the ruble.  There is also the issue of entire sectors of the Russian economy just no longer exists due to the sanctions, a lot of manufacturing just now simply doesnt exist in Russia due to lack of parts from the west.

21 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

It very much seems like he is starting to lose his grip and is becoming increasingly desperate. 

It does seem like his grip might finally be starting to loosen and the Russian oligarchs might be thinking it's time for a new leader before they lose everything they have.

What is going to be interesting is if he has enough power to stop the Russian military and Wagner from destroying each other.  Wagner could very easily harm the Russian military by just rapidly pulling out of Ukraine and not alerting the Russian military, leaving a hole tens of km wide in the Russian lines and allowing the Ukranian military easy access to Russian rear areas.  The Russian military can easily continue to deny aid to Wagner and let them completely destroy themselves even though it would mean needing to use more of their limited forces to cover the same length of front.  The infighting between the two could easily end the Russian invasion quickly.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

I did believe in one big, major Russian winter offensive at some point but then realized it was only the Western media pushing that narrative.

What we have seen instead instead are grinding assaults on various points that are intend to breach the Ukrainian defenses.

What has been seen like in Vuhledar are elite Russian naval infantry being forced to attack along narrow roadways that can support their armored vehicles despite the roads being mined and zeroed in by Ukranian artillery. 

Along the Kreminna to Svatove front the reports of the near daily assaults often noted how the Russian units frequently lacked tanks and armored support for the infantry who were frequently mowed down assaulting prepared defensive positions.  

There was also the general decrease in Russian artillery use which saw Russian artillery only firing approximately 20% to 25% the amount of shells as earlier in the invasion.  

Along the southern front there were attacks along the entire front but those quickly culminated with no Russian gains being made.

These arent grinding assaults, these are the Russian military being exhausted and spent with Putin ordering offensives that were never going to succeed.

You will never admit that the Russian military failed.  Will be interesting to see what excuses you make for the Russian military after the spring counter offensive like you did tor the Russian military being pushed back from Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv or if you will just ignore it like you did during the Kharkiv counter offensive and Kherson counter offensive.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

What has been seen like in Vuhledar are elite Russian naval infantry being forced to attack along narrow roadways that can support their armored vehicles despite the roads being mined and zeroed in by Ukranian artillery. 

Along the Kreminna to Svatove front the reports of the near daily assaults often noted how the Russian units frequently lacked tanks and armored support for the infantry who were frequently mowed down assaulting prepared defensive positions.  

There was also the general decrease in Russian artillery use which saw Russian artillery only firing approximately 20% to 25% the amount of shells as earlier in the invasion.  

Along the southern front there were attacks along the entire front but those quickly culminated with no Russian gains being made.

These arent grinding assaults, these are the Russian military being exhausted and spent with Putin ordering offensives that were never going to succeed.

You will never admit that the Russian military failed.  Will be interesting to see what excuses you make for the Russian military after the spring counter offensive like you did tor the Russian military being pushed back from Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv or if you will just ignore it like you did during the Kharkiv counter offensive and Kherson counter offensive.

I'm not sure why you keep insisting that Russia has to make 'spectacular gains' or else it's a failure.  The battlefield in the eastern part of Ukraine has shifted into a grinding war. Both sides tries to wear down their opponent but of course Russia has the advantage in both manpower and weapons. They will most likely come out on top. It's a long, slow and costly process. But I think Russia is in a better position now then they were before winter.

Edited by Occult1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Both sides tries to wear down their opponent but of course Russia has the advantage in both manpower and weapons.

What?

3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

They will most likely come out on top

Huh?

3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

But I think Russia is in a better position now then they were before winter.

Seriously?

 

 

 

 

 

 

stare-snl.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Stiff said:

What?

Huh?

Seriously?

 

 

 

 

 

 

stare-snl.gif

Well, they’ve gotten rid of a lot of prisoners and those old tanks and weapons littering their junk yards. 
That’s gotta improve something about Russia. 

  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

President Vladimir Putin on Thursday signed an order allowing Russia's Defense Ministry to enlist 147,000 men for their compulsory military service in the upcoming spring call-up.

The number of draftees to be called up this year marks an increase of 12,500 compared to last year's recruitment figures.

The Defense Ministry will kick off the conscription campaign on Saturday, drafting eligible men between the ages of 18 and 27. The recruitment drive is scheduled to wrap up on July 15.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/31/russian-military-to-draft-147000-new-recruits-in-spring-call-up-a80672

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Occult1 said:

I'm not sure why you keep insisting that Russia has to make 'spectacular gains' or else it's a failure.  The battlefield in the eastern part of Ukraine has shifted into a grinding war. Both sides tries to wear down their opponent but of course Russia has the advantage in both manpower and weapons. They will most likely come out on top. It's a long, slow and costly process. But I think Russia is in a better position now then they were before winter.

It's a failure cause Putin gave an order to the military to capture the entirety of Donetsk oblast by March 31 and the Russian military didnt, Bakhmut is still under Ukranian control along with approximately half of Donetsk oblast.  That is just simply a failure no matter how you try to spin it.

Russia has such an advantage in weapons that they have been forced to bring back into service T-62 and T-55/54 tanks.  Russia has lost close to 2,000 tanks in the invasion so far and a large percentage of them are Russia's most modern tanks which despite what Medvedev claims cant be replaced.  There is increasing circumstantial evidence that Russia is nearly out of functional T-72 tanks entirely.

As for manpower, Russia only has approximately 3.4 times the population of Ukraine.  That means if the casualty ratio is above 3.4 to 1 Russians per Ukranians then Russia will run out of man power first.  Also Putin has shown he is extremely reluctant to fully mobilize and bring in the entire weight of the Russian population to the invasion so his pool of possible soldiers is far smaller than what it would be if true mobilization would start.

Good to see you are still backing Russia though.

Edited by DarkHunter
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

It's a failure cause Putin gave an order to the military to capture the entirety of Donetsk oblast by March 31 and the Russian military didnt, Bakhmut is still under Ukranian control along with approximately half of Donetsk oblast.  That is just simply a failure no matter how you try to spin it.

The problem with your analysis is that it's based on assumptions of what Russia's goals and deadlines are. Or what they intend to do.

Putin himself claimed that the war in Ukraine could be a long-term process.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/07/vladimir-putin-says-russias-war-on-ukraine-could-be-long-term-process

 

''NATO described the fight over eastern Ukraine as a “grinding war of attrition” as Russian forces have launched operations in multiple areas.''

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/russia-claims-gains-in-donbas-nato-says-west-must-meet-ukraines-demand-for-artillery

That's a more realistic take on the supposed ' big Russian winter offensive'. They have been nibbling at and slowly attriting the Ukrainian defenses along a 600- mile stretch in the east and south.

Edited by Occult1
  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

It's a failure cause Putin gave an order to the military to capture the entirety of Donetsk oblast by March 31 and the Russian military didnt, 

Just curious... Can you provide a link or source to Putin giving an order to the military to capture the entirety of Donetsk oblast by March 31? 

All I can find is this ISW source, which coincides an hour before you created this thread

 

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, acidhead said:

Just curious... Can you provide a link or source to Putin giving an order to the military to capture the entirety of Donetsk oblast by March 31? 

All I can find is this ISW source, which coincides an hour before you created this thread

 

 

It literally takes like a second to google it so apparently you didnt look too hard.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/01/17/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/11066322002/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.com/amphtml/intelligence-putin-orders-commander-seize-205011902.html

Both are from around mid January when Gerasimov took over overall command of the Russian forces in Ukraine.

Edited by DarkHunter
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Occult1 said:

The problem with your analysis is that it's based on assumptions of what Russia's goals and deadlines are. Or what they intend to do.

Putin himself claimed that the war in Ukraine could be a long-term process.

You just outright deny any and all evidence that proves you wrong, but that has been a thing you have constantly done since the invasion started.  There have been large assaults on multiple fronts and nearly all were broken, normally rather quickly.  It's not surprising that they were since Russia lost so many trained soldiers at the start of the war and have been using barely trained conscripts forced into signing up for the military so they can go fight in Ukraine.

1 hour ago, Occult1 said:

That's a more realistic take on the supposed ' big Russian winter offensive'. They have been nibbling at and slowly attriting the Ukrainian defenses along a 600- mile stretch in the east and south.

So the 100+ destroyed Russian armored vehicles on failed assaults to take Vuhledar is Russia nibbling at Ukraine or the 20,000 to 30,000 Russian casualties on trying to take Bakhmut is just nibbling too.  Both are in Donetsk oblast, which fits with the order to capture all of the Donbas by March 31.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

It literally takes like a second to google it so apparently you didnt look too hard.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/01/17/ukraine-russia-war-live-updates/11066322002/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.yahoo.com/amphtml/intelligence-putin-orders-commander-seize-205011902.html

Both are from around mid January when Gerasimov took over overall command of the Russian forces in Ukraine.

Ukrainian Intelligence representative, Andriy Yusovi is the only source in both those articles and the ISW linked tweet I posted. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Sir Wearer of Hats said:

Well, they’ve gotten rid of a lot of prisoners and those old tanks and weapons littering their junk yards. 
That’s gotta improve something about Russia. 

Spring cleaning 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, acidhead said:

Ukrainian Intelligence representative, Andriy Yusovi is the only source in both those articles and the ISW linked tweet I posted. 

 

Apparently, we are supposed to believe the claim made by a spokesman for the Ukrainian intelligence service without any proof whatsoever.

It shows that the ISW is biased, if anything.

Edited by Occult1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ukraine's Zelensky: Situation in Bakhmut 'especially hot'

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that the military situation around the city of Bakhmut, besieged by Russian forces for months, was "especially hot."

"Thank you to our soldiers who are fighting in Avdiivka, Maryinka, and Bakhmut. Especially Bakhmut," Zelensky said in his nightly video address. "It is especially hot there."

Russian forces have for months been trying to encircle and capture Bakhmut, a town of 70,000 before the Russian invasion launched over a year ago.

[...]

Prominent Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said fighting had engulfed the city center. Ukrainian forces had repelled 25 enemy attacks, but Russian forces had captured the AZOM metal plant, which Ukrainian troops had defended for days.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-736193

Edited by Occult1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, acidhead said:

Ukrainian Intelligence representative, Andriy Yusovi is the only source in both those articles and the ISW linked tweet I posted. 

 

That is kind of how stuff goes during an ongoing war, it's kind of rare to get both sides reporting on and agreeing to the same thing.  What my links do show is that this was talked about since about mid January and not some kind of bew development like you suggested with this comment.

2 hours ago, acidhead said:

All I can find is this ISW source, which coincides an hour before you created this thread

Even then looking at the timeline of events does suggest that the information from Ukranian intelligence was accurate.

The battle for Vuhledar mostly starts at the end of January and last to about mid February with approximately 20,000 Russian troops trying to capture Vuhledar.

Then there is the battle of Bakhmut which picked up significantly around mid January which has seen 50,000+ Russian troops trying to capture Bakhmut and still not succeeding.

Within the last few weeks Russia has increased the military pressure on Avdiivka with trying to surround the town/small city close to the city of Donetsk.

Given that there are other locations that Russian troops have be attacking its realistic to estimate from reported figures that 100,000+ Russian forces have been assaulting Ukranian positions since mid January.  While not conclusive proof it does lend credibility that the Ukranian intelligence is correct and that Putin ordered the Russian military to capture all of Donetsk by March 31.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nope, there was no Russian offensive. They just sent a whole bunch of mercenaries and underequipped and poorly trained troops to one town. nothing else....:whistle:

"Russia begins long-feared winter counteroffensive in Ukraine" - BY ELLEN MITCHELL - 02/16/23 5:20 PM ET

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3862141-russia-begins-long-feared-winter-counteroffensive-in-ukraine/

"Tens of thousands of new Russian conscripts are flowing into the war-torn country ahead of the war’s one-year mark, with Moscow looking to overwhelm Ukrainian troops and retake huge swaths of territory lost last autumn as spring warms the region, according to experts. "

“Those troops are ill-equipped and ill-trained, and because of that, they’re incurring a lot of casualties, and we expect that that will continue,” Austin told reporters in Estonia’s capital after meeting with the country’s defense minister. " 

"Austin added that Russia has also increased its shelling around Bakhmut — an area contested for some time. "

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
3 hours ago, Trelane said:

Nope, there was no Russian offensive. They just sent a whole bunch of mercenaries and underequipped and poorly trained troops to one town. nothing else....:whistle:

"Russia begins long-feared winter counteroffensive in Ukraine" - BY ELLEN MITCHELL - 02/16/23 5:20 PM ET

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3862141-russia-begins-long-feared-winter-counteroffensive-in-ukraine/

"Tens of thousands of new Russian conscripts are flowing into the war-torn country ahead of the war’s one-year mark, with Moscow looking to overwhelm Ukrainian troops and retake huge swaths of territory lost last autumn as spring warms the region, according to experts. "

“Those troops are ill-equipped and ill-trained, and because of that, they’re incurring a lot of casualties, and we expect that that will continue,” Austin told reporters in Estonia’s capital after meeting with the country’s defense minister. " 

"Austin added that Russia has also increased its shelling around Bakhmut — an area contested for some time. "

 

It's like the past, running head on into the future, with Russia trying to defeat a well-trained, well-equipped, well-entrenched modern army with WW II style human wave assaults. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.