Bakhmut apparently has fallen

[Occult1]

4 hours ago, Trelane said:

It appears that the Russians have in fact finally taken Bakhmut. I'll admit I was wrong and miscalculated the Russians desire to continue to push and expend lives, equipment and munitions to take this objective.

"Zelensky Signals Bakhmut Falling, Russian Casualties High"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-21/zelenskiy-says-bakhmut-fell-but-with-high-russian-casualties?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify wall

It's a significant tactical move for Russia in breaking a quagmire that has eviscerated their available troop ranks and depleted their equipment and munitions stores. It still appears the Ukrainians used this as an opportunity to conduct shaping operations on the strategic level. It'll be interesting to see how the next several weeks play out.

Here's what the Russian strategy appeared to be for Bakhmut:

''On October 8, 2022, together with the Army General Sergei Surovikin, it was decided to launch the operation ‘Bakhmut meat grinder’ – an assault on the village of Bakhmut in order to provoke (Ukrainian President) Vladimir Zelensky to throw in as many forces as possible to hold Bakhmut. In Bakhmut, we grinded (the Ukrainian forces), hence the name – ‘Bakhmut meat grinder,’” Prigozhin said.

“The purpose of the operation ‘Bakhmut meat grinder’ was to enable the units of the Russian army to take advantageous lines of defense, mobilize, re-equip, train personnel and increase their combat potential,” he added.''

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/06/europe/wagner-bakhmut-withdraw-meat-grind-intl-hnk/index.html

Edited May 21 by Occult1

[Trelane]

4 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Here's what the Russian strategy appeared to be for Bakhmut:

''On October 8, 2022, together with the Army General Sergei Surovikin, it was decided to launch the operation ‘Bakhmut meat grinder’ – an assault on the village of Bakhmut in order to provoke (Ukrainian President) Vladimir Zelensky to throw in as many forces as possible to hold Bakhmut. In Bakhmut, we grinded (the Ukrainian forces), hence the name – ‘Bakhmut meat grinder,’” Prigozhin said.

“The purpose of the operation ‘Bakhmut meat grinder’ was to enable the units of the Russian army to take advantageous lines of defense, mobilize, re-equip, train personnel and increase their combat potential,” he added.''

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/06/europe/wagner-bakhmut-withdraw-meat-grind-intl-hnk/index.html

That's not what happened though. Ukranian forces have been distributed throughout the theater of operations fairly evenly. Reinforcements were sent to Bakhmut but not what would be considered a throwaway massing of troops. It was more of a plussed up QRF that was sent. 

The Russians on the other hand threw thousands of troops into that bloodbath and have lost estimated 3-5x as many soldiers. That doesn't even take into consideration the expended/destroyed munitions (large and small) and lost equipment platforms. DIA is still crunching numbers on an accurate BDA on what it took the Russians to take that objective. Russian C2 is still causing significant bottlenecks in intelligence reporting and classes of supply to be convoyed and distributed.  It is a victory on a tactical level and an extremely costly one for the Russian side.

Again, there is a larger battlefield to consider. Looking at the macro level, I think the heavy massing of assets by the Russians was a deliberate move by them and intended and manipulated by Ukrainian force response.

[CrimsonKing]

49 minutes ago, Trelane said:

That's not what happened though. Ukranian forces have been distributed throughout the theater of operations fairly evenly. Reinforcements were sent to Bakhmut but not what would be considered a throwaway massing of troops. It was more of a plussed up QRF that was sent. 

The Russians on the other hand threw thousands of troops into that bloodbath and have lost estimated 3-5x as many soldiers. That doesn't even take into consideration the expended/destroyed munitions (large and small) and lost equipment platforms. DIA is still crunching numbers on an accurate BDA on what it took the Russians to take that objective. Russian C2 is still causing significant bottlenecks in intelligence reporting and classes of supply to be convoyed and distributed.  It is a victory on a tactical level and an extremely costly one for the Russian side.

Again, there is a larger battlefield to consider. Looking at the macro level, I think the heavy massing of assets by the Russians was a deliberate move by them and intended and manipulated by Ukrainian force response.

Honestly it was a senseless waste of lives, munitions,and resources on both sides once Russia shelled it to hell and back...but that's war.

[Occult1]

56 minutes ago, Trelane said:

The Russians on the other hand threw thousands of troops into that bloodbath and have lost estimated 3-5x as many soldiers.

From the Washington Post:

''The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.''

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

 

Ukrainian forces still trying to hold Bakhmut despite heavy casualties

''Ukraine’s authorities insist they will continue to try to hold the city despite them suffering an estimated 100-200 casualties a day – with some saying the reason is more political and symbolic than practical''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/09/ukraine-bakhmut-heavy-casualties-russia-war

 

Boh sides have suffered very high amounts of casualties in Bakhmut. The only difference is that Russia was using mostly merceneries (prison convicts etc.) while Ukraine threw it's regular/conscripted troops into the battle.

Edited May 21 by Occult1

[Trelane]

1 hour ago, CrimsonKing said:

Honestly it was a senseless waste of lives, munitions,and resources on both sides once Russia shelled it to hell and back...but that's war.

I believe the Ukrainian higher command was getting on the job training on orchestration of battlefield maneuvering. Once an identified hotspot arose, it became a focal point that drew in still unknown levels of Russian resources. 

[DarkHunter]

1 hour ago, Occult1 said:

Boh sides have suffered very high amounts of casualties in Bakhmut. The only difference is that Russia was using mostly merceneries (prison convicts etc.) while Ukraine threw it's regular/conscripted troops into the battle.

Except none of that is true. 

The majority of Ukranian troops in Bakhmut were Territorial Defense Forces and not units of the Ukranian army.  The highest estimate of Ukranian brigades in Bakhmut was 10 brigades of which only 2 were of the Ukranian army with the rest coming from Territorial Defense Forces.

While Russia did use a lot of prison conscripts they also used a lot of the core Wagner units who were the best fighters and most experienced combatants Wagner had.  The Russian military units that were sent in to assist Wagner were almost always VDV units.

Bakhmut became arguably the single best assault formation that the Russian military had being ground down and destroyed by what is essentially Ukranian national guard units.  Little to no NATO trained or equipped Ukranian troops were in Bakhmut with the exception of Ukranian special forces.

[DarkHunter]

2 hours ago, Trelane said:

Again, there is a larger battlefield to consider. Looking at the macro level, I think the heavy massing of assets by the Russians was a deliberate move by them and intended and manipulated by Ukrainian force response.

It was a deliberate move.  The UK MoD was saying how Russia had a small reserve of combat troops not already committed but the Russian military has not committed almost all of it's small reserve force to try and stop the flanking attacks by Ukraine on Bakhmut.  

It seems the Ukranian plan was to destroy Russia's best offensive units and tie down what remains of the Russian reserve and it seems like that has been successful.

[jmccr8]

I doubt that what is going on in Bakhmmut is over, the Ukraine kept Wagner there for a purpose and if they can encircle Bakhmut then Wagner can't leave and be decimated when the counter offensive starts.

Wagner has to stay and hold Bakhmut for it to be held by Russian forces, Prigozhin may say he is going to turn it over to Russian forces on the 25th but Russia actually has to send a sizeable force in to turn it over to before Wagner pulls out. I have my doubts that Russia will send men in and make Wagner stay or face desertion charges.

[Unusual Tournament]

3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

From the Washington Post:

''The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.''

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

 

Ukrainian forces still trying to hold Bakhmut despite heavy casualties

''Ukraine’s authorities insist they will continue to try to hold the city despite them suffering an estimated 100-200 casualties a day – with some saying the reason is more political and symbolic than practical''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/09/ukraine-bakhmut-heavy-casualties-russia-war

 

Boh sides have suffered very high amounts of casualties in Bakhmut. The only difference is that Russia was using mostly merceneries (prison convicts etc.) while Ukraine threw it's regular/conscripted troops into the battle.

The thing is after fighting a NATO trained army the Russians are starting to adapt and improve their way of fighting. The Russians cannot stay indifferent while Ukraine walked all over them. 
 

Russia has really achieved no real advantage in taking Bakhmut BUT they have learnt to fight better and smarter. 
 

Time for the Americans to to shut this war down to a dribble and use sanctions to effect regime change because the longer it goes on the better the Russians will become

Korea 2.0

[Unusual Tournament]

3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

From the Washington Post:

''The quality of Ukraine’s military force, once considered a substantial advantage over Russia, has been degraded by a year of casualties that have taken many of the most experienced fighters off the battlefield, leading some Ukrainian officials to question Kyiv’s readiness to mount a much-anticipated spring offensive.''

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

 

Ukrainian forces still trying to hold Bakhmut despite heavy casualties

''Ukraine’s authorities insist they will continue to try to hold the city despite them suffering an estimated 100-200 casualties a day – with some saying the reason is more political and symbolic than practical''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/09/ukraine-bakhmut-heavy-casualties-russia-war

 

Boh sides have suffered very high amounts of casualties in Bakhmut. The only difference is that Russia was using mostly merceneries (prison convicts etc.) while Ukraine threw its regular/conscripted troops into the battle.

Ukraine committed its best troops to the defence of Bakhmut

[DarkHunter]

6 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Ukraine committed its best troops to the defence of Bakhmut

Got proof of that, what units exactly were committed to defending Bakhmut and when were they deployed.

You make a lot of claims, normally parroting Russian propaganda, with no sources or anything backing it.

[jmccr8]

9 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

The thing is after fighting a NATO trained army the Russians are starting to adapt and improve their way of fighting. The Russians cannot stay indifferent while Ukraine walked all over them. 
 

Russia has really achieved no real advantage in taking Bakhmut BUT they have learnt to fight better and smarter. 
 

Time for the Americans to to shut this war down to a dribble and use sanctions to effect regime change because the longer it goes on the better the Russians will become

Korea 2.0

Hi UT

Not likely that Americans will and they are only one of many NATO member countries involved. Ukraine willl be getting longer range firepower to hit Crimean targets and fighter jets soo doesn't look like anyone wants the Ukraine to sloow down or ease off.

Lets see bow things look after the counter offensive goes first.

[+and-then]

12 hours ago, Alchopwn said:

The price Russia paid for Bakhmut was far too high, and may be up to 100,000 deaths now, while Ukraine lost a tiny fraction of that

You do realize that there are sources out there saying EXACTLY the opposite has happened, right?  I don't claim to know which one is correct because I think nothing in media is trustworthy any longer.  I'd be more inclined to trust the numbers coming out of Ukraine's officials if they even tried to quantify their losses.  But hey, that's just me.  I'm not on team Russia or team Ukraine.  I'd just like for the slaughter to end before we wind up emptying all of our weapon's storages.

[Electric Scooter]

On 5/20/2023 at 10:36 PM, Unusual Tournament said:

Wagner claims Bakhmut captured, Kyiv says fighting ongoing
 

Russia's private army Wagner claimed Saturday the total control of the east Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, the epicentre of fighting, as Kyiv said the battle was continuing, while admitting the situation was "critical".

 

https://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/wagner-claims-bakhmut-captured-kyiv-says-fighting-ongoing/news-story/19bb4bb9ed6296fbdebbdfde38d42e85?amp

The Ukrainian President has announced its fallen.

[Electric Scooter]

4 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Here's what the Russian strategy appeared to be for Bakhmut:

''On October 8, 2022, together with the Army General Sergei Surovikin, it was decided to launch the operation ‘Bakhmut meat grinder’ – an assault on the village of Bakhmut in order to provoke (Ukrainian President) Vladimir Zelensky to throw in as many forces as possible to hold Bakhmut. In Bakhmut, we grinded (the Ukrainian forces), hence the name – ‘Bakhmut meat grinder,’” Prigozhin said.

“The purpose of the operation ‘Bakhmut meat grinder’ was to enable the units of the Russian army to take advantageous lines of defense, mobilize, re-equip, train personnel and increase their combat potential,” he added.''

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/06/europe/wagner-bakhmut-withdraw-meat-grind-intl-hnk/index.html

Yep, most of the conscripts have spent the last 6 months training in Belarus.

Ukraine has been pouring in poorly equipped and trained men of fighting age into an absolute blood bath for months. The Russian mercenaries don`t push fast, they artillery creep and blow them all to bits. And now have taken the city. Such a tragic loss of human life.

Two weeks back that US General who does the speeches at the White House admitted Russia has only lost 35,000 to 55,000 men in the whole conflict. We knew it, Ukraine just doesn`t have the armed forces that major powers has trained and equipped to the same standards. A few dozen MLRS, drones, and tanks, is a drop in the ocean compared to what they need.

As soon as summer begins Russia will take Kyiv from the North. They are waiting for Ukraine to be exhausted while their own side plays the efficient grind game using artillery. I`m going to predict Ukraine has already lost over 500,000 men.

[DarkHunter]

4 minutes ago, Electric Scooter said:

Yep, most of the conscripts have spent the last 6 months training in Belarus.

Ukraine has been pouring in poorly equipped and trained men of fighting age into an absolute blood bath for months. The Russian mercenaries don`t push fast, they artillery creep and blow them all to bits. And now have taken the city. Such a tragic loss of human life.

Two weeks back that US General who does the speeches at the White House admitted Russia has only lost 35,000 to 55,000 men in the whole conflict. We knew it, Ukraine just doesn`t have the armed forces that major powers has trained and equipped to the same standards. A few dozen MLRS, drones, and tanks, is a drop in the ocean compared to what they need.

As soon as summer begins Russia will take Kyiv from the North. They are waiting for Ukraine to be exhausted while their own side plays the efficient grind game using artillery. I`m going to predict Ukraine has already lost over 500,000 men.

That garbage can only be described as trolling

[Unusual Tournament]

38 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Got proof of that, what units exactly were committed to defending Bakhmut and when were they deployed.

You make a lot of claims, normally parroting Russian propaganda, with no sources or anything backing it.

You got it so very wrong, what makes you think you’re right now?

[Occult1]

1 hour ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Russia has really achieved no real advantage in taking Bakhmut BUT they have learnt to fight better and smarter. 

Russia destroyed Ukraine's major line of defense in Donetsk by taking Bakhmut. It's also a huge morale blow. The city was once described as a "fortress" by Zelensky. The obvious move for Russia now is to push further towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and grind down the last remaining lines of defense in Donbass.

Edited May 21 by Occult1

[DarkHunter]

7 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

You got it so very wrong, what makes you think you’re right now?

So you got no proof what so ever and are just saying things with no backing like normal 

[Unusual Tournament]

29 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Russia destroyed Ukraine's major line of defense in Donetsk by taking Bakhmut. It's also a huge morale blow. The city was once described as a "fortress" by Zelensky. The obvious move for Russia now is to push further towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and grind down the last remaining lines of defense in Donbass.

Moral is sky high, but the cost of taking fortress Bakhmut is equally astronomical. Keeping your soldiers alive is just as important as killing the enemy. That goes for both sides

[Trelane]

The lack of knowledge of some in this thread regarding force allocation and strategic/tactical levels of planning and military operations is hilariously stunning.

[Alchopwn]

2 hours ago, and-then said:

You do realize that there are sources out there saying EXACTLY the opposite has happened, right? 

You believe Russian propaganda, and I do not.  I am a linguist and translator by training, and I include Slavic languages in my purview, though my proficiency isn't what it once was, I confess.  I do find I speak better Russian when I am a giant mug of vodka in. 

The fact is, I know families on both sides of this conflict, and in both militaries.  Both sides agree that Ukraine is ripping the Russian military to pieces.  My Russian acquaintances are reluctant to admit that thy are losing, but their rhetoric is now that Russia will "out-suffer" Ukraine and the West.  Russians know that they only have the mindless attrition of an increasingly infantry war ahead of them, because their military equipment is now mainly blown up.  The whispers coming home from the front offer an utterly dismal prospect for Russia, they freely admit.

Russia went over 200,000 dead yesterday.  Double that for the horribly mutilated, who now roam the streets of Putin's cities as pitiful beggars.  The thing is, Russians are too cowardly to oppose their totalitarian overlords, and too cowardly to oppose the Ukranian military.  They are bred for cowardice these days.  All they want is stability, but they have picked the wrong leaders for that outcome.

[jmccr8]

Seems like cards on the table and no one has left their seat, dealer deal the next hand.

[CrimsonKing]

7 hours ago, Trelane said:

I believe the Ukrainian higher command was getting on the job training on orchestration of battlefield maneuvering. Once an identified hotspot arose, it became a focal point that drew in still unknown levels of Russian resources. 

You are exactly right,in this battle Russia has taken a beating,but both have lost much more than that little piece of turf is worth...

Russia has flattened it...if they do "officially" take it,they lost much there,and gain nothing of significance... other than maybe Prigozhin living another 6 months 

[CrimsonKing]

4 hours ago, Trelane said:

The lack of knowledge of some in this thread regarding force allocation and strategic/tactical levels of planning and military operations is hilariously stunning.

Just read an article earlier,hell can't remember the site,the headline read "Russia learning on battlefield" 

If a country invades another country,many countries would already have been "learned/trained" before invading...it's called strategy... that's the biggest stunner about the world's 2nd most powerful military.