F-16 to Ukraine means NATO involvement in conflict, says Russia

[+and-then]

19 hours ago, Dejarma said:

i know you're not asking me but yes i'd support that

Nah, the question should be for all.  I'm just curious how many have become convinced that Putin would never, under ANY circumstance use a nuke.  People here who even mention it are shouted down or mocked.  I think it'd be insane to send NATO/US boots onto Ukrainian soil - ANYWHERE - to fight Russian troops.  I have no idea if Russia is really as weak as those here seem to believe but if they are and NATO rolls into western Ukraine, that'd leave Vlad with no other options but surrender or escalation.  Let's just say, I'm not as sanguine on that idea as many here are.

[jmccr8]

21 minutes ago, and-then said:

Nah, the question should be for all.  I'm just curious how many have become convinced that Putin would never, under ANY circumstance use a nuke.  People here who even mention it are shouted down or mocked.  I think it'd be insane to send NATO/US boots onto Ukrainian soil - ANYWHERE - to fight Russian troops.  I have no idea if Russia is really as weak as those here seem to believe but if they are and NATO rolls into western Ukraine, that'd leave Vlad with no other options but surrender or escalation.  Let's just say, I'm not as sanguine on that idea as many here are.

Hi And Then

Lol, you crack me up there are like a couole of dozen regular posters in this thread and Armaggedon is not the issue. Putting a stop to it is possible but Russia will never accept anything thst doesn't work in their favour. Then given past agreements how long do you think Russia will abide by it. NATO does not need boots on the ground on the Ukraine and will not happen. Incidents happening in Russia by Russian people are increasing and like your country they will have elections next year and just like yoir country is divided theirs is turning in that direction. Main difference there is more Trump candidates there running against each other.

I would think dragging out the conflict will work better for some Russian candidates to push one platform or the other. Ultimately once the conflict ends sanctions on Russia will stay in place for decades to limit their ability to compete or develop. I woould prefer to see Russia fall apart from the inside then actually invading them.

[Hankenhunter]

11 hours ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi And Then

Such drama, no oone here has called for NATO or other countries to put boots on the ground. Russia started is n th Ukraine is defending itself and many of us support them for their fight. Maybe after the counter offensive things will look different as it will happen given all the equipmennt and planning that has already been invested.

Likely the Ukraine will become a UN and EU member to ensure their safety before any ceasefire agreements are made.

Hopefully the Ukraine can take Russia's place on the UN council. Dare to dream.

[+Nuclear Wessel]

14 hours ago, jmccr8 said:

that'd leave Vlad with no other options but surrender or escalation.

Well, there is a reason why NATO has not stationed or deployed troops in Ukraine...

[jmccr8]

5 hours ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

Well, there is a reason why NATO has not stationed or deployed troops in Ukraine...

Hi Nuke

Absolutely and really they don't need to the Ukrainian forces have been shown to be determined to fight for their continued independence. Not sure if you are responding to me or And Then though.

Edited May 30 by jmccr8

[Unusual Tournament]

23 hours ago, and-then said:

Nah, the question should be for all.  I'm just curious how many have become convinced that Putin would never, under ANY circumstance use a nuke.  People here who even mention it are shouted down or mocked.  I think it'd be insane to send NATO/US boots onto Ukrainian soil - ANYWHERE - to fight Russian troops.  I have no idea if Russia is really as weak as those here seem to believe but if they are and NATO rolls into western Ukraine, that'd leave Vlad with no other options but surrender or escalation.  Let's just say, I'm not as sanguine on that idea as many here are.

…it’s the threat of using a nuclear weapon that’s enough of a deterrent to America. This is what a lot of people don’t get, protection with umbrella and the principal of M.A.D. 
 

Russia has found a loop hole and is exploiting it. Putin has already won in Ukraine, everyone knows this just the powers that be are in no hurry to admit it!

[+and-then]

24 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Russia has found a loop hole and is exploiting it.

They've certainly changed the field in their favor - for now.  The problem with deciding you can unilaterally break deals and strong traditions is that the other side can as well. (see the 2020 US election)  Putin has set something in motion that won't end well.  China may decide they can roll Taiwan up by threatening the use of nukes and at some unknown point, someone in the west is going to call their bluff.  Just like so many here have said Putin's "bluff" should be called.  Imagine the US publicly announcing that we've agreed with Taiwan to station nuclear forces on that island.  There are many different scenarios like that which could trigger a reaction that no one could have predicted.  Rolling the dice with nukes is never going to be a good idea but it may well become inescapable at some point.

[jmccr8]

37 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

…it’s the threat of using a nuclear weapon that’s enough of a deterrent to America. This is what a lot of people don’t get, protection with umbrella and the principal of M.A.D. 
 

Russia has found a loop hole and is exploiting it. Putin has already won in Ukraine, everyone knows this just the powers that be are in no hurry to admit it!

Hi UT

Could you supply a link that affirms Russia has already won in the Ukraine as it seems no one has told the men in the feild the war is over.

[+and-then]

I was just watching a video of Carolyn Glick interviewing an expert on the conflict and he thinks there is likely to be stalemate for quite some time.  He also mentioned a fact I hadn't heard.  He claimed that the F-16s that have been promised, are F-16 As.  If that is accurate, it hardly seems to be worth the effort to train them.  Russia has over a thousand 4th gen aircraft and the A series of the F-16 barely qualifies as a 4th gen.  

[+and-then]

16 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

no one has told the men in the feild the war is over.

For several tens of thousands of them (conservative estimate), they can't be told, because they're already dead.  Same with Russian cannon fodder.  The real question seems to be, how much longer can a nation of 30 or so million - at BEST - keep paying such a butcher's bill against a nation of 80+ million?  There will be no "winners" in this human abattoir.  The only real question left is how many more will die before it stops.

[DarkHunter]

1 hour ago, and-then said:

I was just watching a video of Carolyn Glick interviewing an expert on the conflict and he thinks there is likely to be stalemate for quite some time.  He also mentioned a fact I hadn't heard.  He claimed that the F-16s that have been promised, are F-16 As.  If that is accurate, it hardly seems to be worth the effort to train them.  Russia has over a thousand 4th gen aircraft and the A series of the F-16 barely qualifies as a 4th gen.  

Ukraine isnt going to get F-16A jets, very few countries even have F-16A jets anymore and the ones likely donating F-16s to Ukraine dont have them.  What those countries do have are F-16AM jets.  The F-16AM jets are F-16A jets that got the MLU (Mid-Life Update) that upgraded the avionics and cockpits of F-16A/B to be equivalent to F-16C/D.  

Russia has approximately 1,300 fighter jets (fighter, multirole, and attack combined) but in terms of 4th generation aircraft Russia only has about 843 4th generation aircraft, 10 are technically 5th generation (Su-57), and the remaining approximately 450 are 3rd generation.

but Russia isnt able to deploy them all to Ukraine.  There are only so many airfields close enough to Ukraine and each airfield can only support so many aircraft.  Even then Ukranian air defense is still keeping Russia from truly using its airforce over Ukraine anyway not that Russia even has a true combined arms doctrine to begin with.

Even then the main purpose of Ukraine getting F-16s are going to be ease of use and supply of western weapon systems, a lot easier to attach a NATO cruise missile to an F-16 then trying to find a way to do it to a Russian designed aircraft, and to ease maintenance of Ukraine's airforce as it's rather unlikely Russia will be selling spare parts and tools to Ukraine for Russian designed aircraft any time soon.

[jmccr8]

1 hour ago, and-then said:

For several tens of thousands of them (conservative estimate), they can't be told, because they're already dead.  Same with Russian cannon fodder.  The real question seems to be, how much longer can a nation of 30 or so million - at BEST - keep paying such a butcher's bill against a nation of 80+ million?  There will be no "winners" in this human abattoir.  The only real question left is how many more will die before it stops.

Hi And Then

Thanks but that doesn't answer my question for a link to Russia having won this conflict.

[+Nuclear Wessel]

7 hours ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Nuke

Absolutely and really they don't need to the Ukrainian forces have been shown to be determined to fight for their continued independence. Not sure if you are responding to me or And Then though.

I actually meant to respond to And then lol 

[jmccr8]

9 minutes ago, Nuclear Wessel said:

I actually meant to respond to And then lol 

Hi Nuke

I thought so

 

[Unusual Tournament]

On 5/31/2023 at 7:40 AM, and-then said:

For several tens of thousands of them (conservative estimate), they can't be told, because they're already dead.  Same with Russian cannon fodder.  The real question seems to be, how much longer can a nation of 30 or so million - at BEST - keep paying such a butcher's bill against a nation of 80+ million?  There will be no "winners" in this human abattoir.  The only real question left is how many more will die before it stops.

Well they can’t and the truth is Ukraine is losing. 
 

Ukraine is destined to be partitioned like Korea. At the first sign of Ukraine being rolled back, Biden will order a humanitarian NATO mission to stabilise and draw a ceasefire 

[Stiff]

1 hour ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Well they can’t and the truth is Ukraine is losing. 
 

Ukraine is destined to be partitioned like Korea. At the first sign of Ukraine being rolled back, Biden will order a humanitarian NATO mission to stabilise and draw a ceasefire 

More 'wishful thinking''.

 

[odas]

Macron tells Eastern Europe - we should have listened to you over Russia

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/macron-tells-eastern-europe-we-should-have-listened-to-you-over-russia/ar-AA1bXc7b?li=AAggNb9

There are so many things about russia you should have listened too. Hope you got weisser now.

[+and-then]

 

On 5/30/2023 at 5:56 PM, DarkHunter said:

There are only so many airfields close enough to Ukraine and each airfield can only support so many aircraft.  Even then Ukranian air defense is still keeping Russia from truly using its airforce over Ukraine anyway not that Russia even has a true combined arms doctrine to begin with

Looks like we'll soon see if those leaks about them running out of AA missiles was accurate.  As for airfields, very valid point.  The F-16s are dependent upon VERY well made, smooth runways.  Unless bomb-proof storage buildings come with the aircraft, they'll be easily destroyed once their location is identified, unless you think revetment berms can do the job of protecting them.

I'll let others here choose whose bona fides to trust on the question of the generation of F-16s that are being talked about.  This guy is the editor of the Asia Times and the author of several books.  

 

[DarkHunter]

55 minutes ago, and-then said:

Looks like we'll soon see if those leaks about them running out of AA missiles was accurate

It was inevitable that sooner or later that Ukraine would run out of Russian made anti-air missiles.  When that occurs is hard to estimate but that is why Ukraine is getting supplied with NATO anti-air systems with missiles made in NATO countries.  As long as NATO countries support Ukraine then Ukraine wont be running out of AA missiles.

55 minutes ago, and-then said:

As for airfields, very valid point.  The F-16s are dependent upon VERY well made, smooth runways.  Unless bomb-proof storage buildings come with the aircraft, they'll be easily destroyed once their location is identified, unless you think revetment berms can do the job of protecting them

F-16s can take off and land on paved highways.  Tiawan has using highways for its airforce, which includes F-16s, as part of its defense strategy and a few years ago Singapore demonstrated it can have its F-15s and F-16s take off and land on their highways.  All the F-16 needs is a mostly level, straight, and paved surface that is approximately 1.86 miles long.  

The first problem would be identifying where they are operating them since they can use highways.  Second problem would be targeting them, Ukraine's air defense is getting rapidly better.  Third problem is that Russia would actually have to hit them.  A lot of what Russia has been firing at Ukraine has decently big error margins for accuracy and depending on what's fired there is a good chance it would miss in which case the berms would provide adequate defense.

As for the video the guy says multiple things that are just simply not true.  Ukraine did not send in their best to defend Bakhmut, the majority of the defense of Bakhmut was done by the Territorial Defense Forces which are essentially Ukranian national guard.  This is not picking but it wasnt 9 to 12 battalions trained it was 9 to 12 brigades, a brigade is made up of 3 to 6 battalions so getting those two mixed up is a bit of a problem.  The F-16 runway garbage is just wrong but I went into that already.  HIMARS played a critical role in stopping Russian advances and for Ukraine taking back Kherson so his argument that they didnt help much is also garbage.  A lot of what that guy says is just blatantly not true, my favorite being that the Russian economy is doing fine.

Edited June 1 by DarkHunter

[Setton]

5 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

It was inevitable that sooner or later that Ukraine would run out of Russian made anti-air missiles.  When that occurs is hard to estimate but that is why Ukraine is getting supplied with NATO anti-air systems with missiles made in NATO countries.  As long as NATO countries support Ukraine then Ukraine wont be running out of AA missiles.

F-16s can take off and land on paved highways.  Tiawan has using highways for its airforce, which includes F-16s, as part of its defense strategy and a few years ago Singapore demonstrated it can have its F-15s and F-16s take off and land on their highways.  All the F-16 needs is a mostly level, straight, and paved surface that is approximately 1.86 miles long.  

The first problem would be identifying where they are operating them since they can use highways.  Second problem would be targeting them, Ukraine's air defense is getting rapidly better.  Third problem is that Russia would actually have to hit them.  A lot of what Russia has been firing at Ukraine has decently big error margins for accuracy and depending on what's fired there is a good chance it would miss in which case the berms would provide adequate defense.

As for the video the guy says multiple things that are just simply not true.  Ukraine did not send in their best to defend Bakhmut, the majority of the defense of Bakhmut was done by the Territorial Defense Forces which are essentially Ukranian national guard.  This is not picking but it wasnt 9 to 12 battalions trained it was 9 to 12 brigades, a brigade is made up of 3 to 6 battalions so getting those two mixed up is a bit of a problem.  The F-16 runway garbage is just wrong but I went into that already.  HIMARS played a critical role in stopping Russian advances and for Ukraine taking back Kherson so his argument that they didnt help much is also garbage.  A lot of what that guy says is just blatantly not true, my favorite being that the Russian economy is doing fine.

But it's on the internet in a video! They wouldn't let anyone post a video that wasn't true on the internet!

[+and-then]

6 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

As for the video the guy says multiple things that are just simply not true.

What source do you base this claim on?  Has it ever occurred to you that maybe, just possibly, YOUR sources might be somewhat in error?  You certainly like to behave as if they are fool proof.  The reality is that NO ONE HERE has the full truth on any of these issues.  It's just that some cannot stand the idea they might be proven wrong.

[Occult1]

6 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

It was inevitable that sooner or later that Ukraine would run out of Russian made anti-air missiles.  When that occurs is hard to estimate but that is why Ukraine is getting supplied with NATO anti-air systems with missiles made in NATO countries.  As long as NATO countries support Ukraine then Ukraine wont be running out of AA missiles.

The problem is you need to train more Ukrainian troops to use those high-end NATO anti-air systems, deploy them ect. It's a race against time.

If Ukraine runs out of S-300 missiles very soon there will be gaping holes in their air defenses.

Edited June 2 by Occult1

[DarkHunter]

9 minutes ago, and-then said:

What source do you base this claim on?  Has it ever occurred to you that maybe, just possibly, YOUR sources might be somewhat in error?  You certainly like to behave as if they are fool proof.  The reality is that NO ONE HERE has the full truth on any of these issues.  It's just that some cannot stand the idea they might be proven wrong.

Where to begin

His claim that the F-16s need a glass smoove runway to land and take off.

This is F-15 and F-16 using a highway as an airstrip.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a23907/singapore-fighter-jets-land-highway/

Him saying 9 to 12 battalions instead of 9 to 12 brigades is easy enough to prove, a ton of sources wrote articles on it but the number varies from 8 to 20 brigades depending on the source and their method of counting newly raised brigades.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/11/ukraine-is-forming-a-dozen-new-brigades-and-giving-them-old-weaponry/?sh=1e05e0f15dc2

If you go to the locked thread you can find a lot of pictures and videos of HIMARS striking the bridge at Kherson which prevented the Russian military from effectively resupply Kherson.  Also a lot of pictures and videos of what the HIMARS did to Russia in that thread also.

The Russian economy is doing so good they had to stop automobile production completely and their airlines are on the verge of being unable to fly.  There are also the workers in various Russian workers who havent been paid for weeks or months.

https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/russia-lada-production-halted-due-to-lack-of-supplies/

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/03/09/v-rossii-nachalis-massovie-neviplati-zarplat-byudzhetnikam-a36214

Those are links for Russian car production tanking and workers not getting paid.

Do you want me to go on and continue going on or have you had enough of having your nose rubbed into using garbage sources.

[Unusual Tournament]

On 6/2/2023 at 10:09 AM, Occult1 said:

The problem is you need to train more Ukrainian troops to use those high-end NATO anti-air systems, deploy them ect. It's a race against time.

If Ukraine runs out of S-300 missiles very soon there will be gaping holes in their air defenses.

Not really, since America and Europe are doing a great job of greying Putin’s red lines. It’s not impossible to create a shadowy mercenary group hiring ex-military men with the qualifications and experience to fly/operate and man these complex systems. 
 

Taking it one step further, if they can’t find ex-military types when you can just as easily inject active military personnel and call them “mercenaries”. Hell Pitin did the same thing when he took over Crimea.
 

Suddenly Putin’s red lines are no longer red!

…and I do not think Ukraine will run out anytime soon as Greece has hundreds and hundreds of S-300 missile reloads. Also another interesting development has been Ukraines  Buk 1/2 systems being mated with western AIM and RIM 7 missiles. So can’t see how another solution for the very effective S-300 cannot be found when its missiles run out. Maybe using naval missiles like SM-2’s?

[Unusual Tournament]

On 6/2/2023 at 10:28 AM, DarkHunter said:

Where to begin

His claim that the F-16s need a glass smoove runway to land and take off.

This is F-15 and F-16 using a highway as an airstrip.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a23907/singapore-fighter-jets-land-highway/

Him saying 9 to 12 battalions instead of 9 to 12 brigades is easy enough to prove, a ton of sources wrote articles on it but the number varies from 8 to 20 brigades depending on the source and their method of counting newly raised brigades.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/04/11/ukraine-is-forming-a-dozen-new-brigades-and-giving-them-old-weaponry/?sh=1e05e0f15dc2

If you go to the locked thread you can find a lot of pictures and videos of HIMARS striking the bridge at Kherson which prevented the Russian military from effectively resupply Kherson.  Also a lot of pictures and videos of what the HIMARS did to Russia in that thread also.

The Russian economy is doing so good they had to stop automobile production completely and their airlines are on the verge of being unable to fly.  There are also the workers in various Russian workers who havent been paid for weeks or months.

https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/russia-lada-production-halted-due-to-lack-of-supplies/

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/03/09/v-rossii-nachalis-massovie-neviplati-zarplat-byudzhetnikam-a36214

Those are links for Russian car production tanking and workers not getting paid.

Do you want me to go on and continue going on or have you had enough of having your nose rubbed into using garbage sources.

Certain roads and highways, yes. But not all.