It's about to start!

[pellinore]

 

Ukrainian spokesman says it may be today, tomorrow, or it may be next week.

Western analysts foresee two opposing dangers- it may peter-out into stalemate and consequent Western loss of involvement, or it may end in a rout, leading to danger as Russia destabilises politically.

The Ukrainians know that the coming battle will be historic.

Oleksiy Danilov would not name a date but said an assault to retake territory from President Vladimir Putin's occupying forces could begin "tomorrow, the day after tomorrow or in a week".

He warned that Ukraine's government had "no right to make a mistake" on the decision because this was an "historic opportunity" that "we cannot lose".

As secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, Mr Danilov is at the heart of President Volodymyr Zelensky's de facto war cabinet.

Oleksiy Danilov interview: Ukraine counter-offensive 'ready to begin' - BBC News

Edited May 27, 2023 by pellinore

[+and-then]

I pray that this will bring the slaughter to an end.

[jmccr8]

 

[+joc]

Oh boy, oh  boy, oh  boy...the offensive!  Bring in the BBQ and beer!  Grab a brewsky and some wings and let's have a  p a r t y !

Brilliant not to give a date...the anticipation is   k i l l i n g  me!

I've already called my booky...I've got odds on   t h e   o f f e n s i v e   lasting all the way through JuneTeenth!   This is gonna be  g r e a t !

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sigh....

They call it programming for a reason you know!  

[Hankenhunter]

15 minutes ago, joc said:

Oh boy, oh  boy, oh  boy...the offensive!  Bring in the BBQ and beer!  Grab a brewsky and some wings and let's have a  p a r t y !

Brilliant not to give a date...the anticipation is   k i l l i n g  me!

I've already called my booky...I've got odds on   t h e   o f f e n s i v e   lasting all the way through JuneTeenth!   This is gonna be  g r e a t !

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Sigh....

They call it programming for a reason you know!  

No, it's war. It's been happening since a caveman threw a rock at his neighbor. You call it programming, I call it Ukraine taking back what's theirs with help from most of the civilized world.

[+joc]

1 hour ago, Hankenhunter said:

No, it's war. It's been happening since a caveman threw a rock at his neighbor. You call it programming, I call it Ukraine taking back what's theirs with help from most of the civilized world.

Yeah, I know it's a war Hankenhunter.  What I am talking about is the psychological transformation perpetrated by the Media.  It's portrayed as a 'sporting event' might be.  There is a sarcasm and an undertone of sadness in my above post that I think you are missing...hell...maybe everyone else is too.  It's okay.  

...and now back to our normal programming ...

[DarkHunter]

Realistically the counter offensive probably started a while ago.

Russian command and communication, supply depots, logistics nodes, troop concentrations, and assembly areas have been targeted by Ukraine.  Doesnt get talked about much on here, probably cause it doesnt make the news generally and isnt as exciting as troops attacking positions, but the Ukranian military have probably been doing shaping operations for the past month or so.

One thing though that I'm not getting is Bakhmut though.  Ukraine has been doing small counter offensive operations north and south of Bakhmut, while I havent been following north of Bakhmut much in the south of Bakhmut location only two brigades are being used to attack the Russian positions.  From known troop concentrations there are quite a few brigades not committed to the front at all near Bakhmut and they arent doing anything yet which seems odd unless the Ukranian military is still doing shaping operations around Bakhmut which is a possibility.

Given weather I'm guessing the counter offensive will actively start between June 1 and June 8.  To further guess I'm guessing the counter offensive will start with those uncommitted brigades near Bakhmut making a move to surround and capture Bakhmut quickly followed by one thrust towards Melitopol and another thrust towards Berdyansk/Mariupol.  I also think Ukraine will attempt a crossing of the Dnieper river, probably a mixed helicopter air assault and normal crossing, to capture the connection to Crimea from the mainland.  Of course that is all just a guess.

Should be pointed out that the Ukranian military has depending on the source raised between 12 to 20 new brigades on top of the brigades Ukraine already has so multiple thrusts at stretched Russian forces is a distinct possibility.

Edited May 30, 2023 by DarkHunter

[Tatetopa]

War does not use the rules of hide and seek.  You don't have to yell, "Ready or not here I come,"  before a counteroffensive.
 

[Hankenhunter]

1 hour ago, joc said:

Yeah, I know it's a war Hankenhunter.  What I am talking about is the psychological transformation perpetrated by the Media.  It's portrayed as a 'sporting event' might be.  There is a sarcasm and an undertone of sadness in my above post that I think you are missing...hell...maybe everyone else is too.  It's okay.  

...and now back to our normal programming ...

I certainly don't consider it a sporting event. I may have cheered a few times when Russia got it's ass kicked, but that was because of learning all the atrocities being committed by the aggressor beforehand.

Now it's simply resignation simaler to putting a sick animal down. I'm not referring to the Russian citizens, I'm talking the armed forces. 

[Tatetopa]

3 hours ago, joc said:

Sigh....

They call it programming for a reason you know!  

Its not even directed at us.  Primarily I think it is the Russian Army they want to  affect by crying wolf over and over.  After the first few intense responses, the army will get slower to respond.  Its human nature.

All of us are being programmed all the time.  One thing that makes us crazy is that we are being programmed simultaneously by multiple conflicting sources.

[Unusual Tournament]

6 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

War does not use the rules of hide and seek.  You don't have to yell, "Ready or not here I come,"  before a counteroffensive.
 

Absolutely agree! Both sides have a defensive posture atm and that won’t change no matter how loud and hard the Ukrainian’s telegraph their apparent “offensive “.

[Trelane]

Prepositioning of assets has been underway for some time.  The Bakhmut operation kept most of the Russian offensive assets fixated on that objective and lost sight of other lines of effort being established. The one thing that makes a counteroffensive successful is no one announces when things are placed in motion. The other is the silent establishment of sustainment nodes to advance the front line of trace for offensive elements. Vladdy and Priggy doubled down playing checkers in Bakhmut, while the Ukrainians were quietly playing chess elsewhere. We shall see how this all evolves though.