Regional Middle East war is coming, what will it look like?

[+and-then]

I've been hearing from several different sources about Hizballah ramping up readiness to attack Israel.  It appears it could be happening imminently.  Aside from who is to "blame" for this, it's interesting to get opinions on what it would look like and how long it might last.  

Iran has built a significant proxy force that faces Israel on 3 sides.  To the south, Hamas and the PIJ in Gaza.  To the north and east, Hizballah both in Lebanon and Syria.  Hizballah has a growing stockpile of precision guided missiles that may be able to overwhelm the IDF's ability to protect strategic targets, let alone save civilian lives.  This has been Iran's goal for years and now they have achieved it.  The question is, what would cause them to give the order?  I suspect it is very clear that the order would be given the instant the first bombs fell on any nuclear infrastructure in Iran.  It is also probable that when this begins could be decided on Iran's timetable and not Israel's.  When the Ayatollah finally gives the order to assemble nuclear weapons, the first step will almost certainly be to launch a war against Israel of such a magnitude that Israel will be too busy to respond to stop Iran's crossing of the threshold.  

Since Iran now has a sufficient stockpile of HEU and is literally days away from being able to use that stockpile to build bomb(S), Israel is faced with the decision to live with a nuclear-armed regime that openly calls for its destruction or to attack and destroy that capability, then watch thousands of Israeli civilians die.  I realize that several here would see such an outcome as justified but I'll leave that out of this discussion.  

I will go first:

Israel makes the decision to pre-empt Iran's final dash for the bomb.  Strategic assets are unleashed to destroy the multiple nuke facilities that are spread over Iran, including many that aren't even known to the public.  It will take multiple sorties, perhaps days worth of missions.  Iranian civilians will die along with IRGC and the world condemnation will begin.  At the moment the bombs begin falling - or before - all those proxy forces will begin launching sustained attacks on ALL of Israel.  There will no longer be any locale within the country to be safe from the strikes.  Depending on the numbers of PGMs that are used, Israeli dead could be in the thousands.  Injured could reach the tens of thousands.  Israel's defense establishment know this well and have prepared as best they are able, unlike their enemies who spend next to NOTHING on shelters or other protections for their civilians.

Iran may join their proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and even in Judea and Samaria - the so called "West Bank", in attacking Israel simultaneously.  Again, while some here will think that is glorious and well deserved, it's going to have a rather dreadful outcome for civilians in those areas.  Regardless of the rhetoric from the media propagandists on this issue, the IDF does it's best to limit civilian deaths - if for no other reason than the global blowback.  That will not be the case in such a war as this.  The IDF/IAF will not have the time or resources to "knock on the roof" or send text messages of where they're about to strike.  In such an all out assault from their enemies they will strike back harder than we've ever seen.  The dead in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and even Judea and Samaria, will be appalling.  Tens of thousands dead, hundreds of thousands needing medical care and much of the civilian infrastructure of those countries will lie in ruins because those Iranian PGMs are going to inflict the same damage on Israel's civilian infrastructure.

In short, when this begins, and it will, it will be unlike anything ever witnessed in Israel or the region, EVER.  There are many who hate that nation but unlike the situation in Ukraine, where so many here poo-poo the idea that Russia might employ a nuke, only a fool would believe that Israel would face annihilation and NOT use every weapon they possess.  

Edited May 29 by and-then

[Occupational Hubris]

In this thread : And Then gets aroused at the possability of a middle eastern war with Isreal since it is part of his apololypitical 1800s fundamentalist interpretation of revelation. 

[Tatetopa]

15 minutes ago, and-then said:

There are many who hate that nation but unlike the situation in Ukraine, where so many here poo-poo the idea that Russia might employ a nuke, only a fool would believe that Israel would face annihilation and NOT use every weapon they possess.  

I can only say a major difference would be that if Israel uses a nuke it will be because they are being attacked.  If Russia uses a nuke on Ukraine, it is because they are the aggressor, not a defender. 

[Alchopwn]

Oh FFS what else is new?  Saying there will be war in the Middle East is like predicting there will be traffic accidents.  It will be interesting for Israel's iron dome to be given a workout.

[+Noteverythingisaconspiracy]

8 hours ago, Occupational Hubris said:

In this thread : And Then gets aroused at the possability of a middle eastern war with Isreal since it is part of his apololypitical 1800s fundamentalist interpretation of revelation. 

Yep. And-then have been dreaming of a war in the Middle East for years. He is one of those people who thinks that the Book of Revelation is a history book.

I'm almost certainly one of the people he think will suffer through the tribulation, but I guess I deserve it for some reason.

[Abramelin]

9 hours ago, Occupational Hubris said:

In this thread : And Then gets aroused at the possability of a middle eastern war with Isreal since it is part of his apololypitical 1800s fundamentalist interpretation of revelation. 

This:

Matthew 24:6-13 ?

[Piney]

1 minute ago, Abramelin said:

This:

Matthew 24:6-13 ?

That sort of passed considering it was supposed to be during the disciples lifetime but Americans do abuse the **** out of it as much as they do Daniel. 

[Alchopwn]

Something I found interesting is the way different cultures greet each other and the causes behind this.

For example, in China they ask "Have you eaten ?" because the threat of starvation and related cannibalism has been a long term threat in that society.

In Europe, you are more likely to have "Are you well?"  or "How are you?" questions, due to the lethal threat of diseases.

In the Middle East they say "Peace be unto you".

[+and-then]

On 5/29/2023 at 4:29 AM, Piney said:

That sort of passed considering it was supposed to be during the disciples lifetime but Americans do abuse the **** out of it as much as they do Daniel. 

Well, that's a relief.  We shouldn't have to worry that it might happen again.  Once we human being suffer once, we never make the same mistakes again... 

[Piney]

8 minutes ago, and-then said:

Well, that's a relief.  We shouldn't have to worry that it might happen again.  Once we human being suffer once, we never make the same mistakes again... 

Well, it was called the collapse of the Roman Empire and the Germanic invasions were already happening and German and Sarmatian mercenaries were already running around as far as Palestine.  Alexandria had also gone to **** along with the Greeks too. 

Palestine saw a Mongol invasion some time later, but they didn't get far without pasture. 

[+and-then]

I'll take your word for it.  I certainly trust your knowledge of history being far superior to mine.  My point still stands though.  The current moves in the ME, Turkey, Syria and Iran, cozying up to Russia, Iran's massive support for multiple anti-Israel proxy forces, and an obvious deterioration in US will or power can all lead to Israel being faced with a no-win scenario.  If there is a single government on this planet that one can safely bet to use nukes to avoid annihilation, Israel is that government.

Fortunately, they have such a superior degree of conventional power, they wouldn't be likely to need to resort to the big fire, quickly.  The Hizballah is armed with roughly 150K rockets/missiles in southern Lebanon and the Hamas and PIJ have huge stockpiles also.  For that reason, when this begins, there will be no mercy of any kind being shown.  Iran and its allies will pay the full toll.

 

[Piney]

28 minutes ago, and-then said:

I'll take your word for it.  I certainly trust your knowledge of history being far superior to mine.  My point still stands though.  The current moves in the ME, Turkey, Syria and Iran, cozying up to Russia, Iran's massive support for multiple anti-Israel proxy forces, and an obvious deterioration in US will or power can all lead to Israel being faced with a no-win scenario.  If there is a single government on this planet that one can safely bet to use nukes to avoid annihilation, Israel is that government.

Fortunately, they have such a superior degree of conventional power, they wouldn't be likely to need to resort to the big fire, quickly.  The Hizballah is armed with roughly 150K rockets/missiles in southern Lebanon and the Hamas and PIJ have huge stockpiles also.  For that reason, when this begins, there will be no mercy of any kind being shown.  Iran and its allies will pay the full toll.

 

 

It was said through the spookvine Netanyahu wants to strike Iran first and my experience with Israel was they are trigger happy as hell. 

But Turkey doesn't want to isolate itself from NATO. It won't go well for them and the Russian military has always been a joke.

Iranians are sick of theocracy. They will have their own problems soon enough and they are only our enemies because we seated a shah and gave him the USMC as bullyboys. 

 

[bmk1245]

Israel (+ USA) won Yom Kippur war against bigger forces (bunch of Arab countries + USSR), just sayin'.

Edit to add: why Hezbollah aren't attacking Yordan Kingdom? Yordan occupies large territories of Palestine...

Edited June 3 by bmk1245

[bmk1245]

On 5/31/2023 at 1:07 AM, Piney said:

[...]

Iranians are sick of theocracy. [...]

So? USSR dragged 'sick of' for 70 years, now muscovites are dragging it further...

Can Persians outfight that?

[+and-then]

On 5/30/2023 at 5:07 PM, Piney said:

It was said through the spookvine Netanyahu wants to strike Iran first and my experience with Israel was they are trigger happy as hell.

It's the only reason their nation has survived 75 years this time.  If you were being surrounded by people you KNEW wanted you and your loved ones dead, would you wait and allow them to set the time and ground?  Where dealing with the Mullahs is concerned, far from being trigger happy, they've tried to find other resolutions because early on they realized how deadly the conflict would be.  Now things have only gotten much worse and they still are faced with acting or accepting that at any moment, an incoming wave of projectiles could be masking one or more that could literally end their country.

[bmk1245]

48 minutes ago, and-then said:

It's the only reason their nation has survived 75 years this time. [...]

And that makes some nations (and their acolytes) sad... And that makes me happy.

 

PS In imaginary world, all jews retreat from Israel. What will happen to that land? Total desolation, similar to Zimbabwe. And newly started Palestine would wage the war against Yordan, Syria. etc.

Heh, talibs going against Iran... How long till Afghanistan/Iran full scale war?...

[Piney]

3 hours ago, and-then said:

It's the only reason their nation has survived 75 years this time.  If you were being surrounded by people you KNEW wanted you and your loved ones dead, would you wait and allow them to set the time and ground?  Where dealing with the Mullahs is concerned, far from being trigger happy, they've tried to find other resolutions because early on they realized how deadly the conflict would be.  Now things have only gotten much worse and they still are faced with acting or accepting that at any moment, an incoming wave of projectiles could be masking one or more that could literally end their country.

Once upon a time Muslims and Jews got along. Even when the Jewish Kingdom of Yemen was killing every Christian they could get their hands on. Then came T.E. Lawrence who had a vision that would work.

Then came the Nazis pitting Jew and Muslim against each other and the hatred still existed during the Palestinian Mandate with both sides committing atrocities.

Meanwhile the US came along and while it supports Israel, knocked Iran's elected leader out. Seating the Shah and giving him the USMC as enforcers. Making Iran the enemy of both countries.

Isreal is only important to you because of the writings of one clown who said the Second Coming was happening in 1844 and Evangelicals forgot that part. 

Let it burn. Let it all burn and become no longer important to anyone.

[DarkHunter]

2 hours ago, Piney said:

knocked Iran's elected leader out. Seating the Shah and giving him the USMC as enforcers

That part is not accurate.  The elected leader was turning increasingly dictatorial as he faced increased political pressure from the UK blockade of Iran due to him nationalizing the oil industry in Iran, which is a whole other thing in and of itself.  When his political party lost he just disbanded parliament and refused to acknowledge the election, if I remember correctly he then ran a fake election where his political party went from losing to having like 90%+ of the vote, while turning to the USSR for support and using radical communist groups to intimidate and brutalize political opponents of his in Iran.  America fearing that Iran would go communist joined up with the UK to get the Shah to become active again in Iranian politics and use his power under the Iranian constitution to remove the prime minister which he did.

The Shah wasnt the best ruler and he had a lot of problems but his overthrow had more to do with France and I think the Netherlands, could be wrong on the Netherlands but I remember another European country helped France.  The Shah was rather brutal in suppressing the Islamists and the Communist inside of Iran.  The french backed the Islamists by allowing them to use France as a safe location to organize, plan, and build up supplies to overthrow the Shah.  As to why France did this they felt the Shah preferred America too much and gave America to many beneficial trade deals while cutting them out of the Iranian market and the Ayatollah promised the French government that once they got into power they would make trade deals to the benefit of the French.  The overthrow wouldnt of happened if Carter wasnt an idealistic idiot who let his personal dislike of the Shah prevent him from supporting the Shah cause for whatever reason Carter believed between the armed Islamists, armed communist, and unarmed students who were opposing the Shah that the unarmed students would win.  The Islamists and Communists quickly ended the students once they overthrew the Shah and no longer needed them as the face of the revolution and then shortly after the Islamists betrayed the Communist and took over Iran completely.

[Piney]

1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

That part is not accurate.  The elected leader was turning increasingly dictatorial as he faced increased political pressure from the UK blockade of Iran due to him nationalizing the oil industry in Iran, which is a whole other thing in and of itself.  When his political party lost he just disbanded parliament and refused to acknowledge the election, if I remember correctly he then ran a fake election where his political party went from losing to having like 90%+ of the vote, while turning to the USSR for support and using radical communist groups to intimidate and brutalize political opponents of his in Iran.  America fearing that Iran would go communist joined up with the UK to get the Shah to become active again in Iranian politics and use his power under the Iranian constitution to remove the prime minister which he did.

The Shah wasnt the best ruler and he had a lot of problems but his overthrow had more to do with France and I think the Netherlands, could be wrong on the Netherlands but I remember another European country helped France.  The Shah was rather brutal in suppressing the Islamists and the Communist inside of Iran.  The french backed the Islamists by allowing them to use France as a safe location to organize, plan, and build up supplies to overthrow the Shah.  As to why France did this they felt the Shah preferred America too much and gave America to many beneficial trade deals while cutting them out of the Iranian market and the Ayatollah promised the French government that once they got into power they would make trade deals to the benefit of the French.  The overthrow wouldnt of happened if Carter wasnt an idealistic idiot who let his personal dislike of the Shah prevent him from supporting the Shah cause for whatever reason Carter believed between the armed Islamists, armed communist, and unarmed students who were opposing the Shah that the unarmed students would win.  The Islamists and Communists quickly ended the students once they overthrew the Shah and no longer needed them as the face of the revolution and then shortly after the Islamists betrayed the Communist and took over Iran completely.

Well, I just learned something. 

[Alchopwn]

19 hours ago, Piney said:

Let it burn. Let it all burn and become no longer important to anyone.

Oil...

[Piney]

28 minutes ago, Alchopwn said:

Oil...

Biofuels.....

[+and-then]

I expect the usual suspects to just laugh but I wonder if, once Wurmser's accessment proves accurate, will any of them re-think the dangers or will they just keep cheering for their tribe, even while America falls?  BTW, that's mostly a rhetorical question.  Once someone sells themselves into the slavery of tribalism, they never try to regain their freedom.

Edited June 6 by and-then

[Alchopwn]

On 6/4/2023 at 10:00 PM, Piney said:

Biofuels.....

Mass starvation due to the loss of arable land to fuel crops...

[Piney]

2 minutes ago, Alchopwn said:

Mass starvation due to the loss of arable land to fuel crops...

The amount of wood waste from tree services and woodland management is huge. Then you have grass clippings, leaves and branches rotting away in borough dumping yards. 

There is one dump near me that produced topsoil and wood mulch that can't take anymore and my little operation alone produces a medium size dump truck of sawdust a month that I scrape out of my firewood processing area. 

Then you have biowaste from corn, soybeans and other mechanically harvested food crop and orchard biowaste.

It would only be part of the solution. But it still is one.

And Woodruff biofuel made the exhaust on my loaders and tractors smell like roasted peanuts. 

 

[Alchopwn]

23 hours ago, Piney said:

The amount of wood waste from tree services and woodland management is huge. Then you have grass clippings, leaves and branches rotting away in borough dumping yards. 

There is one dump near me that produced topsoil and wood mulch that can't take anymore and my little operation alone produces a medium size dump truck of sawdust a month that I scrape out of my firewood processing area. 

Then you have biowaste from corn, soybeans and other mechanically harvested food crop and orchard biowaste.

It would only be part of the solution. But it still is one.

And Woodruff biofuel made the exhaust on my loaders and tractors smell like roasted peanuts. 

Thx Piney, that is interesting to know. My comment was based on something else I heard in the past.  What I remember is that in 2008 (afaik) there had been attempts to produce biofuel corn that had done nothing to alleviate fuel prices, had led some African communities into famine, and had actually produced a net deficit in usable fuel due to the fuel requirement needed to harvest the corn and take it to processing and then to market.