Zelenskyy pressures Nato over Ukraine’s bid to join alliance

[Unusual Tournament]

Zelenskyy pressures Nato over Ukraine’s bid to join alliance
 

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stepped up demands for Nato to make progress on his country’s bid to join the military alliance, increasing pressure on western governments as a debate over providing security guarantees to Kyiv intensifies.

https://www.ft.com/content/0dbd02cd-8a7a-4071-8486-4f7387c198e5

[Unusual Tournament]

…from this extreme tense request, I can only surmise, Ukraine, is in dire straits 

[pellinore]

34 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

…from this extreme tense request, I can only surmise, Ukraine, is in dire straits 

The straits couldn't be more dire, could they? Since February last year they have been engaged in an existential war with Russia.

Non-paywall OP article:Zelenskyy pressures Nato over Ukraine’s bid to join alliance | Financial Times (archive.ph)

 

[Trelane]

More punching at air I see. Some dolts here ignore that Zelensky has been making stern demands and requests since the beginning of Russia's illegal invasion. It stands to reason his senior commanders and military advisors are making these requests as they see targets of opportunity to push the initiative.

Dire straits indeed. The mastermind operation at Bakhmut has crippled an entire portion of the Russian military machine. They can't even properly re-quip or reset to for follow on ground operations. @DarkHunterhas already highlighted the Russian ineptness at joint operations or rather lack thereof. This includes internal failures at C2 and command maintenance supply discipline failures. 

[pellinore]

2 hours ago, Trelane said:

More punching at air I see. Some dolts here ignore that Zelensky has been making stern demands and requests since the beginning of Russia's illegal invasion. It stands to reason his senior commanders and military advisors are making these requests as they see targets of opportunity to push the initiative.

Dire straits indeed. The mastermind operation at Bakhmut has crippled an entire portion of the Russian military machine. They can't even properly re-quip or reset to for follow on ground operations. @DarkHunterhas already highlighted the Russian ineptness at joint operations or rather lack thereof. This includes internal failures at C2 and command maintenance supply discipline failures. 

When I say Ukraine is in dire straits, I'm not suggesting that they are losing militarily. I am saying their situation is as desperate as a country's situation can be - they have been locked in full scale war for over 18 months, with the fight over their existence. It is not a war they can withdraw from. Of course Zelensky will be making demands for help- they were given a guarantee of military assistance when they surrendered their nuclear arsenal 30 years ago. He is not begging for help- he is asking the West to honour its commitment.

[Trelane]

16 minutes ago, pellinore said:

When I say Ukraine is in dire straits, I'm not suggesting that they are losing militarily. I am saying their situation is as desperate as a country's situation can be - they have been locked in full scale war for over 18 months, with the fight over their existence. It is not a war they can withdraw from. Of course Zelensky will be making demands for help- they were given a guarantee of military assistance when they surrendered their nuclear arsenal 30 years ago. He is not begging for help- he is asking the West to honour its commitment.

Its situation is no different than day one of the invasion. The main difference is a more united and emboldened Ukrainian civilian populace than before this second incursion by Russian forces.

The "West" has honored commitments that were agreed upon. However, he continues to press for more and expanded support. Careful consideration has been the US's policy all along as leading supporter and supplier.

[Occult1]

1 hour ago, pellinore said:

When I say Ukraine is in dire straits, I'm not suggesting that they are losing militarily. I am saying their situation is as desperate as a country's situation can be - they have been locked in full scale war for over 18 months, with the fight over their existence. It is not a war they can withdraw from. Of course Zelensky will be making demands for help- they were given a guarantee of military assistance when they surrendered their nuclear arsenal 30 years ago. He is not begging for help- he is asking the West to honour its commitment.

There are already signs that the Ukrainian counteroffensive isn't panning out as it was touted to be.

There are calls now by NATO representatives, France etc. that the focus should be instead on the 'long-term', to provide 'security guarantees' to Ukraine (whatever that means).

Edited June 2 by Occult1

[pellinore]

19 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

There are already signs that the Ukrainian counteroffensive isn't panning out as it was touted to be.

There are calls now by NATO representatives, France etc. that the focus should be instead on the 'long-term', to provide 'security guarantees' to Ukraine (whatever that means).

Isn't panning out? It hasn't started so it is a bit early to make judgements.

[DarkHunter]

Feel like it should be mentioned that up until a few days ago it rained closed to 2 weeks straight in southern Ukraine causing some flooding problems.  Basically for about half of May it was near impossible to take armored vehicles off of roads through southern Ukraine and it was extremely unlikely the counter offensive would start while it was raining.  Depending on how hot it gets it will take anywhere from a few days to two weeks for the ground to dry enough to allow armored vehicle movement.

[Unusual Tournament]

2 hours ago, pellinore said:

When I say Ukraine is in dire straits, I'm not suggesting that they are losing militarily. I am saying their situation is as desperate as a country's situation can be - they have been locked in full scale war for over 18 months, with the fight over their existence. It is not a war they can withdraw from. Of course Zelensky will be making demands for help- they were given a guarantee of military assistance when they surrendered their nuclear arsenal 30 years ago. He is not begging for help- he is asking the West to honour its commitment.

Ukraine is getting help from the strongest country and its alliance the world has ever seen. It has stabilised the war but also entrenched it. Free military aid and advisors are not working and time is running out for Ukraine. Basically, we now wants direct protection and no Russian guarantees. 
 

Things are not going well for him, he is being used and he fears he will be discarded if Russia and the U.S. make a deal without him. 
 

 

[Occult1]

1 hour ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Basically, we now wants direct protection and no Russian guarantees.

It's pretty much impossible for NATO to provide Ukraine with 'direct protection', or 'security guarantees' without risking a direct clash with Russia.

Any such arrangements would have to be made as part of a peace plan agreed by all sides.

Edited June 2 by Occult1

[Occult1]

2 hours ago, pellinore said:

Isn't panning out? It hasn't started so it is a bit early to make judgements.

We are already being told to temper our expectations by officials from both Washington and Kyiv.

[pellinore]

1 hour ago, Occult1 said:

We are already being told to temper our expectations by officials from both Washington and Kyiv.

I don't know about that:

 

[Trelane]

4 hours ago, Occult1 said:

There are already signs that the Ukrainian counteroffensive isn't panning out as it was touted to be.

There are calls now by NATO representatives, France etc. that the focus should be instead on the 'long-term', to provide 'security guarantees' to Ukraine (whatever that means).

How do you know? Have you been at Ukrainian planning meetings? Have you been briefed on maneuver elements along the front? Where is this allegation coming from?

[Trelane]

2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

We are already being told to temper our expectations by officials from both Washington and Kyiv.

By who??? More nonsense from you thanks for the laughs though.

[Unusual Tournament]

8 hours ago, Occult1 said:

There are already signs that the Ukrainian counteroffensive isn't panning out as it was touted to be.

There are calls now by NATO representatives, France etc. that the focus should be instead on the 'long-term', to provide 'security guarantees' to Ukraine (whatever that means).

To be honest, the Russian military is but a political tool for the advancement of internal politics. It’s not unified to take advantage of any short falls in Ukraines military counteroffensive challenges. Blinken said it right when he stated Russia is not the second best army in the armed just the second best in Ukraine. 
 

And now there is talk of Prigozhin’s Wagner having their exit routes in Bakhmut being mined. Basically, Prigozhin, the best commander of the most effective Russian forces, is gonna be killed for openly displaying political aspirations. 
 

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Russians give the Americans and Ukrainians the coordinates of Prigozhin and have him go down a “martyr” for mother Russia. 
 

 

 

Edited June 3 by Unusual Tournament

[Occult1]

7 hours ago, Trelane said:

By who??? More nonsense from you thanks for the laughs though.

 

Senior Ukrainian officials fear counterattack may not live up to hype

“The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in an interview this past week. “Most people are … waiting for something huge,” he added, which he fears may lead to “emotional disappointment.”

https://archive.is/mY7lF

 

Biden’s team fears the aftermath of a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive

''The Biden administration is quietly preparing for the possibility that if Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive falls short of expectations, critics at home and allies abroad will argue that America has come up short, too.''

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/24/biden-ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-defense-00093384

Edited June 3 by Occult1

[Setton]

2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

Biden’s team fears the aftermath of a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive

''The Biden administration is quietly preparing for the possibility that if Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive falls short of expectations, critics at home and allies abroad will argue that America has come up short, too.''

If.

[Tatetopa]

2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

'The Biden administration is quietly preparing for the possibility that if Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive falls short of expectations, critics at home and allies abroad will argue that America has come up short, too.''

Well there you go pal.  Remember all of the times you have told us that if Putin is pushed into a corner, he might use nuclear weapons?  What do you think might happen if America loses face or gets pushed into war?  If you care about Russia it is probably not a thing you would wish for.

[Occult1]

7 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

What do you think might happen if America loses face or gets pushed into war?

It will be perceived as a failure of the Biden administration. There will be growing calls for negotiation with Russia.

There is absolutely no appetite in America for WW3 over Ukraine.

Edited June 3 by Occult1

[Tatetopa]

1 hour ago, Occult1 said:

There is absolutely no appetite in America for WW3 over Ukraine.

Depends on who has control of the button and the media.   A lot of the MIC supporters and  neoliberals would relish it.  The propaganda gets refocused quickly on the story of an old man and his peaceful friends  (US and Ukraine) minding their own business when beset by a gang of thugs and hoodlums (Russia).  We have seen this movie before, the audience turns its sympathy to the peaceful underdogs and its hatred to the thugs..

.If the old man lets the dogs out,  Russia better get off his lawn.

[acidhead]

3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

There is absolutely no appetite in America for WW3 over Ukraine.

People, especially Progressive Liberals, can be convinced to support just about anything no matter how unconvincing it is. If their peers believe it so will they. 

[Occult1]

1 hour ago, Tatetopa said:

.If the old man lets the dogs out,  Russia better get off his lawn.

I think it would be much more rational to freeze the conflict and settle for Russia controlling about 20% of Ukraine if the counteroffensive doesn't produce meaningful results.

''The options discussed within the Biden administration for a long-term “freeze” include where to set potential lines that Ukraine and Russia would agree not to cross, but which would not have to be official borders. The discussions — while provisional — have taken place across various U.S. agencies and in the White House.''

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/18/ukraine-russia-south-korea-00097563

[acidhead]

2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

I think it would be much more rational to freeze the conflict and settle for Russia controlling about 20% of Ukraine if the counteroffensive doesn't produce meaningful results.

''The options discussed within the Biden administration for a long-term “freeze” include where to set potential lines that Ukraine and Russia would agree not to cross, but which would not have to be official borders. The discussions — while provisional — have taken place across various U.S. agencies and in the White House.''

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/18/ukraine-russia-south-korea-00097563

I've watched some John Mearsheimer's talks at universities lately where says that scenario (a freeze or negotiated settlement) is not likely to happen because both sides would continue to shell each other like they have been since 2014. 

[Tatetopa]

2 hours ago, Occult1 said:

I think it would be much more rational to freeze the conflict and settle for Russia controlling about 20% of Ukraine if the counteroffensive doesn't produce meaningful results.

''The options discussed within the Biden administration for a long-term “freeze” include where to set potential lines that Ukraine and Russia would agree not to cross, but which would not have to be official borders. The discussions — while provisional — have taken place across various U.S. agencies and in the White House.''

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/18/ukraine-russia-south-korea-00097563

Rational?  That is not rational.   The  rational thing to do is crush Russia now, and not have to worry about them in the future.  It would be nice to do it conventionally  so that we can exploit their petroleum and mineral resources.  We can give Ukraine a share as reparations and NATO a share for their contributions. 

Then we can focus on China.  That is rational.