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Current Ukrainian counteroffensives


Unusual Tournament

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Ukrainian media is saying that the current Western equipped units dedicated to the counterattacks will last no more than 2-3 weeks at the current rate of operation.
 

Also, thou Ukrainian forces have opened up some areas and pushed through lines of defence they have failed, so far to sweep aside Russian troops.

Edited by Unusual Tournament
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According to Russian sources, Ukrainian troops have captured Neskuchnoye
 

image.thumb.jpeg.3bd3e7d5ab4a26d50645b1f3c68093e3.jpeg

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Ukrainian sources claim that their forces have captured also Blagodatne in the Donetsk region
 

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I expect Ukraine to retake some settlements but no major gains. What the counteroffensive will demonstrate is that there is a core 20% of Ukraine's territory that the Ukrainian military will not be able to get back. It would take overwhelming firepower, air support and at least a 3-to-1 ratio in manpower. The Russians have been entrenched  for over a year in the east and south and have corrected the deficiencies in their positions. How many people will need to die before the West realize the only way to resolve this conflict is negotiation?

Edited by Occult1
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️Putin wants to take PMC Wagner troops from Prigozhin

The conflict is gaining momentum, now, before July 1, all volunteer units must sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation - this also applies to Wagner PMC.

What it does is the complete transition of the Wagnerites to the RF Ministry of Defense.

 

Prygozhyn reacted to the order from Ruzzian defence ministry.

He stated that the Wagnerites would not be subordinate to the RF Ministry of Defense.

“Those orders and decrees that Shoigu forms, they apply to employees of the Ministry of Defense and military personnel. PMC "Wagner" will not sign any contracts with Shoigu. PMC "Wagner" is organically built into the overall system, PMC "Wagner" coordinates its actions with the generals on the right, left, with unit commanders. What can happen after this order - we will not be given weapons and ammunition - we will figure it out, as they say, when the thunder strikes, they will come running and bring everything, ”said the leader of the mercenaries.

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47 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

I expect Ukraine to retake some settlements but no major gains. What the counteroffensive will demonstrate is that there is a core 20% of Ukraine's territory that the Ukrainian military will not be able to get back. It would take overwhelming firepower, air support and at least a 3-to-1 ratio in manpower. The Russians have been entrenched  for over a year in the east and south and have corrected the deficiencies in their positions. How many people will need to die before the West realize the only way to resolve this conflict is negotiation?

It’s being reported the Russians are abandoning towns and villages outside their defensive networks and once occupied by Ukrainian forces, they attack with air power and artillery and when the Ukrainians leave they re-occupy and rinse repeat. These towns and villages are changing hands.

Russian tactics are changing and they’re more interested in punishing and being fluid than entrenched and holding land. Interesting 

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The Russian fortifications Ukraine needs to break through in its counter-offensive

[...]The defences, according to a Ukrainian intelligence officer, are constructed in a “three-line system”, with varying levels of fortifications, the depths of which can exceed around 19 miles on some axes.

“They have unbelievable trenches and unbelievable fortifications, it will be hard to break their lines of defence” Serhii, a commander in Ukraine’s National Guards, told The Telegraph.

“There are also minefields and they have good artillery - more than us unfortunately.”

[...]

British intelligence officials have described the Russian efforts to fortify their positions as “some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world”.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/11/russian-fortifications-ukraine-counter-offensive-war/

 

It's hard to see how Ukraine will be able to push Russian forces out of these territories.

Edited by Occult1
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47 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

The Russian fortifications Ukraine needs to break through in its counter-offensive

[...]The defences, according to a Ukrainian intelligence officer, are constructed in a “three-line system”, with varying levels of fortifications, the depths of which can exceed around 19 miles on some axes.

“They have unbelievable trenches and unbelievable fortifications, it will be hard to break their lines of defence” Serhii, a commander in Ukraine’s National Guards, told The Telegraph.

“There are also minefields and they have good artillery - more than us unfortunately.”

[...]

British intelligence officials have described the Russian efforts to fortify their positions as “some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world”.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/11/russian-fortifications-ukraine-counter-offensive-war/

 

It's hard to see how Ukraine will be able to push Russian forces out of these territories.

Hi Occult

Likely the plan is to disrupt supppy lines first while keeping the Russians in defence. Once supply routes have been closed the Russians won't be able to defend positions..

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3 hours ago, Occult1 said:

The Russian fortifications Ukraine needs to break through in its counter-offensive

[...]The defences, according to a Ukrainian intelligence officer, are constructed in a “three-line system”, with varying levels of fortifications, the depths of which can exceed around 19 miles on some axes.

“They have unbelievable trenches and unbelievable fortifications, it will be hard to break their lines of defence” Serhii, a commander in Ukraine’s National Guards, told The Telegraph.

“There are also minefields and they have good artillery - more than us unfortunately.”

[...]

British intelligence officials have described the Russian efforts to fortify their positions as “some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world”.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/11/russian-fortifications-ukraine-counter-offensive-war/

 

It's hard to see how Ukraine will be able to push Russian forces out of these territories.

The Ukrainians telegraphed this counterattack for so long is it any wonder why the Russians are so well entrenched 

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Russian ‘barrier’ troops are firing on retreating troops. It’s having an effect as those troops, they are now moving forward and counterattacking. 

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9 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Russian ‘barrier’ troops are firing on retreating troops. It’s having an effect as those troops, they are now moving forward and counterattacking. 

Hi UT

The Russians are firing on their own retreating troops? Oh well that has been orders from the krumblin for the last year now so nothing new there.

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1 hour ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi UT

The Russians are firing on their own retreating troops? Oh well that has been orders from the krumblin for the last year now so nothing new there.

Both sides are probably using 'barrier troops' to some extent. Do you think the forced Ukrainian conscripts or Russians want to die on the frontline?

Edited by Occult1
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38 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

Both sides are probably using 'barrier troops' to some extent. Do you think the forced Ukrainian conscripts want to die on the frontline?

Hi Occult

Forced conscripts in the Ukraine, hmm never heard that one before. Nobody wants to die however the reality is the people of the Ukraine are willingly fighting for their freedom and not just good time freeloaders.

I do think that Ukraine military planners along with their western advisors are lookiing to keep their casualties to a miminum and doing prep work by taking out transport routes and ammo depots to hamper Russias ability to get men and equiipmment to the front lines of defence then move in from weak points. Doesn't seem like they are being careless or wasting resources in the manner that Russia has been.

Edited by jmccr8
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Auto translate of original text:

War Takes the Best
Heavy fighting all through yesterday (June 12) was
almost along the entire line of contact
group Vostok, especially at the so-called Vremjevsky
outpost. The situation was difficult in the defense belt of the 60th and
37 Motorized Rifle Brigades.
As a result of the enemy's rocket attack the chief of staff of the 35th Combined Arms Brigade was killed.
Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army Maj.
Major-General Sergei Goryachev.

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3 hours ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Occult

Forced conscripts in the Ukraine, hmm never heard that one before.

There are videos of forced Ukrainian conscription. Whether they are authentic or not, the fact is that most Ukrainian men between 18 and 60 have been banned from leaving the country in the beginning or the war. I'm pretty sure there are a lot of young people who see this war as nonsense and would prefer not to die in it.

Edited by Occult1
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25 minutes ago, Occult1 said:

There are videos of forced Ukrainian conscription. Whether they are authentic or not, the fact is that most Ukrainian men between 18 and 60 have been banned from leaving the country in the beginning or the war. I'm pretty sure there are a lot of young people who see this war as nonsense and would prefer not to die in it.

Please post links to the videos you allege.

I would venture you know nothing of the current desire of all Ukrainians to defend their country.

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Russian defence minister Shoigu ordered Russian soldiers to shoot to kill any Wagner PMC mercenaries they encounter.

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Thoughtful article from The Economist:

This week there have been frequent comparisons between D-Day in 1944 and the Ukrainian military offensive that is currently unfolding. Although both were launched in the month of June, a better comparison may be to Operation Cobra, a large ground operation launched by the United States First Army almost two months after the Normandy landings. While starting inauspiciously, with the accidental killing of Leslie McNair, an American lieutenant-general, and unfolding slowly at first, once the operation gathered pace it was highly effective. It was Cobra that broke open German defences for the Allies to exploit in subsequent offensives.

Mick Ryan assesses Ukraine’s counter-offensive (archive.ph)

Edited by pellinore
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Uh-Oh!!!!  Another disaster for the Russian military. The term 'hurry up and wait" is a common theme in the US military. Well, at least it it isn't as bad as "Hurry up and wait to get blown up". This is not how to lead troops in combat.

"Russian Troops Killed Waiting for Commander's Motivational Speech: Reports"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-troops-killed-waiting-for-commander-s-motivational-speech-reports/ar-AA1cyCQJ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=f356bebac4eb46b0b0ffec65df3a36e4&ei=47

"Multiple well-known pro-Kremlin military bloggers on Wednesday reported that an unspecified amount of Russian soldiers were killed by a Ukrainian HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) strike while waiting for their commander to deliver a motivational speech."

"If by the middle of the second year of the war there are commanders who...build personnel in one big pile, and then wait for the enemy artillery to strike, then such commanders should be shot," Starshe Eddy wrote on Telegram.

"Near Kreminna, a tragic incident occurred in one of the divisions that were about to go on the offensive. For two hours, people stood in a crowd in one place and waited for the division commander to say his motivating word," Rybar wrote.

The blogger continued, "But instead of him, the HIMARS and enemy artillery had their say."

None of the bloggers named the division commander, who was accused of "criminal stupidity" by Rybar, nor did anyone provide an estimate of victims killed in their accounts.

"Stand in a column for two hours in one place! Well, what are you doing, father commanders, you command people," the Russian Telegram channel Two Majors channel posted.

 

The Russian military blunders continue. This could be a very hot summer indeed.

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