Britain could rejoin EU as ‘associate member’ in planned overhaul by France and Germany

[Ozymandias]

On 9/20/2023 at 6:01 PM, Electric Scooter said:

Yeah, it means he now has to fill in forms instead of just being able to hop on a train lol.

I`ll let him into a little secret and that is people do not require a passport to travel from the UK to the Republic of Ireland. Due to past agreements still in place you can even live and work over there.

We'd prefer it if your sort stayed in the UK.

On 9/20/2023 at 6:01 PM, Electric Scooter said:

You might not like it though. Its mostly farming so prepare for the waft of cow manure.

You don't say! 'The waft of cow manure' in Ireland! Cow dung is spread on Irish fields to provide the nutrients for healthy agricultural produce that people in the UK consume with gusto. I welcome cow dung, but draw the line at the urine and faeces of the people of the UK being released into the rivers of Great Britain. Thankfully, however, I don't have to live there and suffer it.

Sorry to derail this fascinating thread on how to mitigate the damage done as a result of the stupidity of Brexit voters, but Electric Scutter's gratuitous slur deserves a response, especially, at least, to educate him on the fact that the smell of cow manure would be equally evident in the British countryside. 

[itsnotoutthere]

 

[+and-then]

On 9/20/2023 at 11:22 AM, itsnotoutthere said:

And it's nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with a global agenda by unelected elites & if you can't see that by now then there's no help for you.

Amazing, isn't it?  Even NOW, they simply cannot see beyond their tribal programming.  One wonders just what it will take to finally convince them that that way lies total catastrophe.  Perhaps once they're prostrate in the ruins?

[itsnotoutthere]

17 hours ago, and-then said:

Amazing, isn't it?  Even NOW, they simply cannot see beyond their tribal programming.  One wonders just what it will take to finally convince them that that way lies total catastrophe.  Perhaps once they're prostrate in the ruins?

Indeed, also try telling them at unrestricted immigration is ruining the country & they'll call you a nazi.

[pellinore]

On 9/19/2023 at 6:12 PM, L.A.T.1961 said:

I see any pre election policy move towards the EU by Starmer in the same light as Teresa May's “dementia tax” that reduced her massive poll lead to virtually nothing on election day. 

She thought she could get away with anything at the time, apparently so does Starmer.

Well, some differences: polls show 60% of the general population support actively rejoining the EU, 20% of Leave voters regret their decision, business leaders would be delighted at rejoining, every constituency in England bar one in the Northeast have a majority to rejoin, Scotland wants to rejoin, Plaid Cymru supports rejoin, and NI supports rejoin. Fisherman and farmers regret voting to Leave and would be happy to rejoin. The differences of opinion are mainly between people who have regret but don't want the political turmoil all over again, and the people who would actively support it. The only people who are still support Brexiters are people too old to work, don't understand economics or the effect Brexit has had on us losing control of our borders, or are fanatics like the DUP in Ireland.

Whereas no one supported the dementia tax. 

Edited September 26, 2023 by pellinore

[L.A.T.1961]

On 9/24/2023 at 10:52 PM, pellinore said:

UK Business leaders are keen to get back to a closer relationship:

British trade chiefs frustrated by Brexit red tape told The Independent that they welcome the idea of associate membership – saying it would be “fantastic” to remove tariff barriers and cut down on current friction.

Nick Allen, chief executive of the British Meat Processors Association (BMPA), said: “Anything that makes trading with the EU more seamless would be a good thing – it would be a big improvement on what we have.”

Business chiefs urge Labour to consider new EU membership plan | The Independent

You might think UK meat producers were having a bad time with EU restrictions causing real export growth Issues, except -

The value of UK red meat exports has reached record levels in 2022, amounting to a staggering £1.7 billion.

 

 "AHDB international market development director Dr Phil Hadley said: “We are thrilled by these latest figures, which show 2022 was an incredibly strong year for all three of our red meat sectors, with values at their highest since records began in 2009.

Last year, we saw strong growth in some of our key target markets, such as Canada, Japan and Europe, which remains the UK’s most valuable market. We also saw new opportunities created for pork exports to Chile and lamb to the US, which both have the potential to help bolster these figures over the coming year.”

In 2022, Japan proved a prominent market for beef, importing 3,175 tonnes worth £16.3 million, a 68 per cent rise in value compared to the previous year. Canada has also increased its shipments of beef from the UK, with imports worth a total of £13.1 million, representing a 77 per cent rise year-on-year.

With regards to the pig sector, the amount of pig meat exported last year rose by six per cent to 372,597 tonnes, with China remaining the largest importer, taking 126,723 tonnes valued at almost £203 million."

https://www.farmersguide.co.uk/livestock/livestock-business/uk-red-meat-exports-soar-to-unprecedented-heights/#:~:text=According to HMRC data%2C the,per cent increase on 2021.

Looks like meat producers will not be looking for a change of government if it might upset this recent UK performance.   

I won't mention the benefits of brexit although reduced meat export performance would have been entirely down to it, would it not.  

[L.A.T.1961]

57 minutes ago, pellinore said:

Well, some differences: polls show 60% of the general population support actively rejoining the EU, 20% of Leave voters regret their decision, business leaders would be delighted at rejoining, every constituency in England bar one in the Northeast have a majority to rejoin, Scotland wants to rejoin, Plaid Cymru supports rejoin, and NI supports rejoin. Fisherman and farmers regret voting to Leave and would be happy to rejoin. The differences of opinion are mainly between people who have regret but don't want the political turmoil all over again, and the people who would actively support it. The only people who are still support Brexiters are people too old to work, don't understand economics or the effect Brexit has had on us losing control of our borders, or are fanatics like the DUP in Ireland.

Whereas no one supported the dementia tax. 

It's a pity all those 60% did not turn up at the last election and vote Labour, and for another referendum. Or on referendum day. 

Instead of voting to get brexit done.

Despite polling evidence, when the opportunity for a real vote is given, all these pro EU people fail to turn up. 

[pellinore]

58 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

You might think UK meat producers were having a bad time with EU restrictions causing real export growth Issues, except -

 

I won't mention the benefits of brexit although reduced meat export performance would have been entirely down to it, would it not.  I

The increase is from a very low level due to Covid and Brexit, unfortunately. Common sense should tell you increasing trade barriers cannot increase trade, though inflation will give an increased value. This info is just a few days old:

Following the FDF’s Trade Snapshot for H1 2023, we took a closer look at the figures for meat exports which are down considerably by volume from the same period last year.

The loss in volume reflects the difficulties of Brexit and the added red tape and cost it brings with our nearest market. This is demonstrated by the fact that, even though values have increased mainly due to inflation, the volume of red meat exported has never recovered to pre-Brexit levels. 

Btw, if you have discovered a trade benefit of Brexit, please share it. Even T=Rees Mogg failed to find one, when it was his job. No one, literally no one has found a benefit of Brexit yet.

What's behind the steep decline in meat exports? - BMPA (britishmeatindustry.org)

UK farmers and Brexit - statistics & facts | Statista

Edited September 26, 2023 by pellinore

[L.A.T.1961]

I would imagine sales since 2022 have been affected by inflation and interest rates, reducing the ability of consumers to by fresh meat instead of pay the electric bill and higher mortgage costs. But 2023 figures are compared to a best since 2009 year last year.

Germany is in recession with more interest rate hikes likely in the Euro area and this can only depress sales further.

 

 

[pellinore]

8 hours ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

I would imagine sales since 2022 have been affected by inflation and interest rates, reducing the ability of consumers to by fresh meat instead of pay the electric bill and higher mortgage costs. But 2023 figures are compared to a best since 2009 year last year.

Germany is in recession with more interest rate hikes likely in the Euro area and this can only depress sales further.

LAT, re-read the article. It says values, not volume, the highest since 2009. The sub-heading says the figures are partly due to inflation. You know how much food prices have increased over the last few years; imagine how much they have increased over the last decade and a half. The value of grain exported by Russia and Ukraine has gone up probably tenfold over the last two years, but that doesn't mean exports are booming.

You're not thick, you must realise raising trade barriers cannot possibly increase the amount of trade. Each lorryload of beef needs vets' certs, customs clearances, etc. Each destination EU country has different rules. The only way it can be done now is through middlemen, who can afford to send thousands of tonnes at a time. An individual beef farmer in Dorset can no longer send pallets of specialty beef to a supplier in France, taking all the profits, he has to pay a middleman. UK supermarkets are finding it cheaper to buy pork from Poland at the moment, rather than from British farmers- a few pence of each pack is vital to maintain competitiveness. 

In any case, even if we increased exports to the EU- that isn't a Brexit Benefit as we were doing it much more easily and cheaper before Brexit. The best that can be said is that the damage is not as bad as predicted. Imagine how good things would be if we didn't have those barriers.

 

 

[OpenMindedSceptic]

On 9/21/2023 at 1:29 PM, pellinore said:

If you watched the video at the place I stopped it, you will see and hear Rees Mogg explaining that to implement our part of the WA (border checks) will increase inflation over what it already is. How can either of you say Brexit hasn't harmed our economy? It has, because the EU implemented their part on Day 1. As soon as we implement our part, it will do huge damage- but not doing so will contiue the imbalace where UK exports are checked, but incoming EU goods are not checked. (OMS obviously doesn't really run any businesses, because if he did, he would understand all this).

It hasn't impacted me. More paperwork to sell to the EU? Yeah. So what? I sell around the world already so no differnce for me. Sales are up. Percentage profits same rate. UK economy was predicted to tank... didn't happen. Germany has bigger economic problems than UK, so Brexit has zero impact in real terms. As for border checks... the EU is bringing them in within the EU under the migration issues. Italy, Austria, Germany, France... all looking to implement their borders again. Every person and shipment to be checked again. EU desperate to have the UK back to balance their books. The EU was bust at one point within the last few months. The green issue is about to see billions being ripped out of EU GDP. Let's stay out while it implodes and come back when they are decimated and reap the spoils of their political ideology to emerge even stronger (because they are lame and lightweight in their agendas).

[L.A.T.1961]

On 9/27/2023 at 4:26 AM, pellinore said:

Each destination EU country has different rules. The only way it can be done now is through middlemen, who can afford to send thousands of tonnes at a time. An individual beef farmer in Dorset can no longer send pallets of specialty beef to a supplier in France, taking all the profits, he has to pay a middleman. UK supermarkets are finding it cheaper to buy pork from Poland at the moment, rather than from British farmers- a few pence of each pack is vital to maintain competitiveness. 

In any case, even if we increased exports to the EU- that isn't a Brexit Benefit as we were doing it much more easily and cheaper before Brexit. The best that can be said is that the damage is not as bad as predicted. Imagine how good things would be if we didn't have those barriers.

 

 

Its not unusual to use freight forwarders, middle men, to organise moving goods, its been done for years and long before brexit.

The costs can be partially offset as it allows the likes of farmers to do what they are there to do, which is grow Beef or Lamb Ect.

Although the costs might have increased to cover any extra paperwork, the increase would be small. 

[L.A.T.1961]

On 9/20/2023 at 12:35 PM, L.A.T.1961 said:

 

The EU will also likely drop the need for high local content when moving goods as it costs them more than us, watch this space. 

So plenty of big benefits. But few, if any, talked of in the press. 

As suggested above the EU is coming around to the pragmatic UK view on implimenting a new 10 percent tariff on sourcing supplies for electric vehicle batteries.  

"At an intra-European meeting on Monday, a number of countries with automotive industries including Sweden, the Czech Republic, Belgium and Italy, backed Germany, three EU diplomats said. London has found an ally in Germany, whose car industry is already under pressure. 

The diplomats, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly, said France was the only EU country to vocally oppose the British call.

Divisions also run deep within the European Commission. In theory, the EU's executive should stand by the terms of the post-Brexit deal.

In the Brexit end game, Brussels considered it vital not to allow the U.K. to undermine the EU’s single market. That is a position Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, who is French, and others in the European Commission are advocating again in the current dispute. 

A fourth EU diplomat said a postponement would be such a “political shock” from the Commission that it was unthinkable. But the Commission is also split, with EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis agreeing with London that more flexibility is needed.  expect a decision very soon from von der Leyen, who has “yet to engage on the issue.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/france-isolated-post-brexit-electric-vehicle-tariffs/

Strange, as the UK was supposed to have no influence on EU trade policy now we are out.