War Driven Inflation

[Electric Scooter]

It has been eclipsed by the Russel Brand coverage in the UK so for those who don`t know Russia has recently banned the exportation of fuels. Furthermore it has been leaked that some countries like India have not been complying with the Western Cap on oil prices. Here is the current cost of Brent Crude:

Crude Oil Price Today | BRENT OIL PRICE CHART | OIL PRICE PER BARREL | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)

As we can see oil prices are once again rocketing so a 2nd wave of high inflation is inbound. The official Russian narrative asserts the ban is because its due to oil shortages which they need in order to drive farming machinery to get the harvest in.

With Ukraine coming under NATO pressure to produce results, and with whatever weeks of good weather remain for them, its looking like the counteroffensive will be declared a failure. Biden is under pressure too from within the Democrat Party to step down due to poor economic performance. Could we see the war about to end?

I would argue Russia have in fact adopted a strategy to keep inflation high in the West to ensure Biden looses next years election. They want Trump in charge because they can reach a deal with him over Ukraine.

[L.A.T.1961]

I am not sure the Ukraine counteroffensive can be called a failure ?

I think the Russians have to be slow boiled as a big change in the military situation might force Putin into a rash move. Ukraine intelligence, supplied in large part by the west, may be restricting military activity for this reason ? 

Putin has already taken out dams in a desperate attempt to halt his losses. 

Unfortunately for Russia, although still selling oil, its not selling enough processed petrol and diesel, the Chinese don't want processed fuel as they would rather take crude and add value by processing it themselves. So Russia apparently has refineries standing idle and not producing fuel for others or themselves.  

A sustained increase in Oil prices will push up inflation around the world and reduce growth further. 

I think the fate of Biden hangs in the balance.    

[spartan max2]

The oil supply is entirely artificial because of the OPEC monopoly anyways.  

[odas]

1 hour ago, Electric Scooter said:

It has been eclipsed by the Russel Brand coverage in the UK so for those who don`t know Russia has recently banned the exportation of fuels. Furthermore it has been leaked that some countries like India have not been complying with the Western Cap on oil prices. Here is the current cost of Brent Crude:

Crude Oil Price Today | BRENT OIL PRICE CHART | OIL PRICE PER BARREL | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)

As we can see oil prices are once again rocketing so a 2nd wave of high inflation is inbound. The official Russian narrative asserts the ban is because its due to oil shortages which they need in order to drive farming machinery to get the harvest in.

With Ukraine coming under NATO pressure to produce results, and with whatever weeks of good weather remain for them, its looking like the counteroffensive will be declared a failure. Biden is under pressure too from within the Democrat Party to step down due to poor economic performance. Could we see the war about to end?

I would argue Russia have in fact adopted a strategy to keep inflation high in the West to ensure Biden looses next years election. They want Trump in charge because they can reach a deal with him over Ukraine.

Well, in this case quiet the opposite has to happen otherwise the west will fall under russias blackmale and russia will have achieved their goal. In addition to the BRICS agreements where Saudia Arabia is now pulled in.

Scooter, the only ONLY way to keep our freedom in any way, peace wise, economicly, is not to give in to Putin's blackmale and to continue to support Ukraine. I keep on telling, if Ukraine fals WE fall. The increased cost of Oil and goods for a few years is a small price to pay. The alternative is the complete downfall of freedom, prosperity, law, order and the biggest loss of all - the future of our children.

This war is not about just Ukraine. It is about our all freedom.

[pellinore]

2 hours ago, Electric Scooter said:

11 minutes ago, odas said:

Scooter, the only ONLY way to keep our freedom in any way, peace wise, economicly, is not to give in to Putin's blackmale and to continue to support Ukraine. I keep on telling, if Ukraine fals WE fall. The increased cost of Oil and goods for a few years is a small price to pay. The alternative is the complete downfall of freedom, prosperity, law, order and the biggest loss of all - the future of our children.

This war is not about just Ukraine. It is about our all freedom.

I would argue Russia have in fact adopted a strategy to keep inflation high in the West to ensure Biden looses next years election. They want Trump in charge because they can reach a deal with him over Ukraine.

It is argued by some that a win by Trump is the only way Putin is going to achieve victory.

The Kremlin is hoping that a second Trump presidency would see support for Kyiv dwindle, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive relying heavily on sustained Western backing.

Trump has pledged to immediately end the war in Ukraine if re-elected, threatening to cut off military aid and convince Kyiv to sacrifice territory in the east - something Ukraine has vowed it will not do.

Putin is 'gambling' on Donald Trump winning the US election in 2024 in the hope he will end backing for Ukraine, Western officials warn | Daily Mail Online

Edited September 28 by pellinore

[odas]

18 minutes ago, pellinore said:

It is argued by some that a win by Trump is the only way Putin is going to achieve victory.

The Kremlin is hoping that a second Trump presidency would see support for Kyiv dwindle, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive relying heavily on sustained Western backing.

Trump has pledged to immediately end the war in Ukraine if re-elected, threatening to cut off military aid and convince Kyiv to sacrifice territory in the east - something Ukraine has vowed it will not do.

Putin is 'gambling' on Donald Trump winning the US election in 2024 in the hope he will end backing for Ukraine, Western officials warn | Daily Mail Online

I know. And this is a complete wrong way of thinking.

Trump, as a president god forbid, could only stop the war by letting russia have Ukraine. And then, what is next? Russia will not let Saudi Arabia, China, India slipp back to USA. Putin will continue the BRICS expansion because he must in order to keep power away from US and Europe. Putin will not turn his back on India and China. That would send a bad message for any future teritorial expansion by russia to his allies. So, in any case but loss in Ukraine we are screwed, especially with Trump.

I understand that people think if we let Putin win costs will come down. No. We have to think long term not short term.

Edited September 28 by odas

[+Desertrat56]

28 minutes ago, odas said:

I know. And this is a complete wrong way of thinking.

Trump, as a president god forbid, could only stop the war by letting russia have Ukraine. And then, what is next? Russia will not let Saudi Arabia, China, India slipp back to USA. Putin will continue the BRICS expansion because he must in order to keep power away from US and Europe. Putin will not turn his back on India and China. That would send a bad message for any future teritorial expansion by russia to his allies. So, in any case but loss in Ukraine we are screwed, especially with Trump.

I understand that people think if we let Putin win costs will come down. No. We have to think long term not short term.

In what world does a U.S. president let a war lord "have" any other country?   How would the florida man, as president, let Putin have the Ukraine?  That makes no sense.  Not to mention, the florida man will not be our next president.  He will either be in jail or have run away to some island that doesn't have extradition.  (most likely what ever island he is hiding all his money).

And who thinks letting Putin win anything will bring down costs?  Are you claiming that inflation is due to Putin's attempt at taking the Ukraine?

Edited September 28 by Desertrat56

[odas]

8 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

In what world does a U.S. president let a war lord "have" any other country?   How would the florida man, as president, let Putin have the Ukraine?  That makes no sense.  Not to mention, the florida man will not be our next president.  He will either be in jail or have run away to some island that doesn't have extradition.  (most likely what ever island he is hiding all his money).

And who thinks letting Putin win anything will bring down costs?  Are you claiming that inflation is due to Putin's attempt at taking the Ukraine?

Des, calm down and read the OP.

Thank you.

[+Desertrat56]

11 minutes ago, odas said:

Des, calm down and read the OP.

Thank you.

I didn't read the OP because I have that poster on ignore.   Since it is him who posted I know it was some off center drivel.   Just like your response seems like off center drivel, unless you could choose to answer my questions.

[Electric Scooter]

1 hour ago, odas said:

Well, in this case quiet the opposite has to happen otherwise the west will fall under russias blackmale and russia will have achieved their goal. In addition to the BRICS agreements where Saudia Arabia is now pulled in.

Scooter, the only ONLY way to keep our freedom in any way, peace wise, economicly, is not to give in to Putin's blackmale and to continue to support Ukraine. I keep on telling, if Ukraine fals WE fall. The increased cost of Oil and goods for a few years is a small price to pay. The alternative is the complete downfall of freedom, prosperity, law, order and the biggest loss of all - the future of our children.

This war is not about just Ukraine. It is about our all freedom.

Continued war will just keep the inflation high seeing as its driven by sanctions.

Russia doesn`t seem to want all of Ukraine, and why would the rest of Europe being under threat?

[odas]

16 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

I didn't read the OP because I have that poster on ignore.   Since it is him who posted I know it was some off center drivel.   Just like your response seems like off center drivel, unless you could choose to answer my questions.

Your question was answered before you even asked it Des. It was a return post on ESass, or is it ES's?, post that brought up the question about Putin, Trump, Ukraine and inflation.

[odas]

5 minutes ago, Electric Scooter said:

Continued war will just keep the inflation high seeing as its driven by sanctions.

Russia doesn`t seem to want all of Ukraine, and why would the rest of Europe being under threat?

Yes, the inflation will continue but not only fir the war reason but also companies are taking advantage off it and jerking up the prices. How come companies and CEO's are making record proffits but we have record expenses? Something to think about.

Seem and facts are different things. Please reffer to the Owner Manual of a Dictator.

[Electric Scooter]

4 minutes ago, odas said:

Yes, the inflation will continue but not only fir the war reason but also companies are taking advantage off it and jerking up the prices. How come companies and CEO's are making record proffits but we have record expenses? Something to think about.

Seem and facts are different things. Please reffer to the Owner Manual of a Dictator.

No one has examined the supply chain to determine where all price increases have come from.

The assumption is its greedy companies, but that hasn`t been tested.

[odas]

4 minutes ago, Electric Scooter said:

No one has examined the supply chain to determine where all price increases have come from.

The assumption is its greedy companies, but that hasn`t been tested.

LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Big Oil more than doubled its profits in 2022 to $219 billion, smashing previous records in a year of volatile energy prices where Russia's invasion of Ukraine reshaped global energy markets and, in some cases, the industry's climate ambitions.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/big-oil-doubles-profits-blockbuster-2022-2023-02-08/

 

Top 10 hedge funds made £1.5bn profit from Ukraine war food price spike.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/14/hedge-funds-profit-ukraine-war-food-price-surge

 

And the list goes on and on and on.

[+Desertrat56]

32 minutes ago, odas said:

Your question was answered before you even asked it Des. It was a return post on ESass, or is it ES's?, post that brought up the question about Putin, Trump, Ukraine and inflation.

Did you answer it?  Or are you saying your response that triggered my questions has nothing to do with my questions TO YOU?   I don't care what the others said, I was asking you about your response.  Were you being facetious or serious with that comment about the florida man?

[odas]

2 hours ago, Desertrat56 said:

In what world does a U.S. president let a war lord "have" any other country?   How would the florida man, as president, let Putin have the Ukraine?

Easy, very easy. By stopping aide and forcing Ukraine to lose by negotiating surrender in terms of letting Putin have all the occupied parts.

 That makes no sense.  Not to mention, the florida man will not be our next president.  He will either be in jail or have run away to some island that doesn't have extradition.  (most likely what ever island he is hiding all his money).

And who thinks letting Putin win anything will bring down costs?  

Electric Scooter does.

Are you claiming that inflation is due to Putin's attempt at taking the Ukraine?

Already explained. The inflation IS in part because of the war but to the highest extent really due to Oil, Food and other companies taking advantage of this situation. 

My anwers are bolded but I really do not understand why I have to repeat again everything that is alrady said.

[Tatetopa]

If you are following, one reason Russia stopped exporting is because they are running short of diesel for their own consumption. 

Both India and China have been buying crude from Russia at a discount price, and both have refused to use rubles.  China pays in yuan and India pays in rupees.   Russia wanted to sell refined products in rubles to prop up their currency and to keep refineries employed.  Its not working out ideally for them.

But  the West hasn't raised many objections.  I think there are a couple of reasons.   If China and India fill their needs from Russia, they are not competing with the West on the crude market, and that keeps the price down a bit.  Also, Russia has to sell at discount so their income from petroleum is way down. Apparently, India is using the cheap price to build up reserves too. Thirdly, the ruble isn't being propped up, its worth about a penny now.  The Russians are accumulating rupees and yuan, not exactly  widely used currencies on the world market, they will get the best deals buying back from China and India.  Russian trade balance is not looking good right now.  I don't think Western allies are anxious for India or China to change policy anytime soon.  

 

[+Desertrat56]

20 hours ago, odas said:

My anwers are bolded but I really do not understand why I have to repeat again everything that is alrady said.

Is the U.S. the only country giving aide to the Ukraine?   Really?   You give the U.S. too much credit.   It isn't our border that is on the line, it is a NATO border and we are only a member with less at stake than the rest of Europe.

[jmccr8]

On 9/28/2023 at 9:41 AM, Electric Scooter said:

Continued war will just keep the inflation high seeing as its driven by sanctions.

Russia doesn`t seem to want all of Ukraine, and why would the rest of Europe being under threat?

Hi Cookie

Don't fool yourself Russia wants all of the Ukraine that is why they tried to take Kyiv st the start of the conflict.

Munitions and military production has increased significantly which generates income in the west.

 

[Electric Scooter]

It case anyone has missed it with the oil price continues to rise: BRN00 | Brent Crude Oil Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch (Set it to 3 or 6 months).

Additionally no one has posted about it yet, and there have been a lack of articles on it in our media, but the pipeline between Finland and Estonia has now been holed too to match the Nord Steam one.

[jmccr8]

1 hour ago, Electric Scooter said:

It case anyone has missed it with the oil price continues to rise: BRN00 | Brent Crude Oil Continuous Contract Overview | MarketWatch (Set it to 3 or 6 months).

Additionally no one has posted about it yet, and there have been a lack of articles on it in our media, but the pipeline between Finland and Estonia has now been holed too to match the Nord Steam one.

Hi Cookie

Not seeing any change in price at the pumps here but I guess to a country that doesn't produce their own it may be different.

[+Desertrat56]

18 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Cookie

Not seeing any change in price at the pumps here but I guess to a country that doesn't produce their own it may be different.

Prices were going up again last month, this month they are back down.  The difference is about 60 cents a gallon in New Mexico from September to October.   It almost hit 4.00 a gallon here last month, now it is about 3.40 a gallon give or take 10 cents, except Chevron which is still charging 3.99 a gallon.

[jmccr8]

2 minutes ago, Desertrat56 said:

Prices were going up again last month, this month they are back down.  The difference is about 60 cents a gallon in New Mexico from September to October.   It almost hit 4.00 a gallon here last month, now it is about 3.40 a gallon give or take 10 cents, except Chevron which is still charging 3.99 a gallon.

Hi Desertrat

The prices have been consistent here for several months. Holiday gas price gouging is about the only thing noticable and always drops back down afterwards.

[+Desertrat56]

7 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

Hi Desertrat

The prices have been consistent here for several months. Holiday gas price gouging is about the only thing noticable and always drops back down afterwards.

What holiday did we have in September?   Long after labor day the prices still rose.    And it has more to do with elections than holidays lately.   Next month are the primaries so gas prices drop.   

[jmccr8]

1 minute ago, Desertrat56 said:

What holiday did we have in September?   Long after labor day the prices still rose.    And it has more to do with elections than holidays lately.   Next month are the primaries so gas prices drop.   

Hi Desertrat

I have only been speaking about gas prices where I live which is an oil and beef based economy. I don't pay attention to elections but guarrateed the pump prices rise for every holiday and fall after because of travellers. We have a holiday for every month of the year although some are more for govt, teachers and bankers. I don't notice them as they are still work days to me.