Jump to content
Join the Unexplained Mysteries community today! It's free and setting up an account only takes a moment.
- Sign In or Create Account -

Potential war in South America


DarkHunter

Recommended Posts

Not a lot of this is making it into the media in America but it is concerning.

Essentially Venezuela might be invading Guyana in the very near future.  The whole issue is over a territory dispute over Esequibo with Guyana, which is largely impassable jungle.  Recently oil and natural gas has been found off the coast of Esequibo and whoever controls Esequibo will control the oil and natural gas.  

It seems that Venezuela has been making some threats recently but most concerning there is going to be an election in Venezuela on December 3 and one of the things on the ballot is if Venezuela should annex Esequibo.  The leader of Guyana has made counter threats essentially that his country is not seeking war but they will defend the entirety of their sovereign territory which they say includes Esequibo.  America has sent military advisors to Guyana a few days ago.  Lastly the Brazilian army have been sighted heading to the border of Venezuela.

For Venezuela to invade Guyana and seize Esequibo they got two options.  One is to invade fron the north and have to fight through extremely thick jungle to secure Esequibo.  The other is to pass through Brazilian territory and try to reach the Esequibo river heading east.

download(4).jpeg.f64e0788594624c9f47af8e3eed6a063.jpeg

Figured a map would help better understand the situation.

America and Brazil do have a defense treaty so Venezuelan forces entering Brazil to take Esequibo would probably provoke an American response.  Even then Brazil doesn't seem thrilled over the possibility of a war on its borders.  I have no idea what the possibility of this flaring up into a war but with everything else going on who knows what might happen.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Ukraine started the fire and it was allowed to smolder and flare for 20 months.  Now we have Israel/Iran (proxies) and the spread continues.  I hope all those who became wealthy from the mass death of Ukrainians and Russians don't escape the consequences their actions have set in motion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, and-then said:

Ukraine started the fire and it was allowed to smolder and flare for 20 months.  Now we have Israel/Iran (proxies) and the spread continues.  I hope all those who became wealthy from the mass death of Ukrainians and Russians don't escape the consequences their actions have set in motion.

They never escape the consequences-  unfortunately those consequences tend to be making a boat load of money.  

As the war rages on and military spending booms, the US arms industry is a big winner in Ukraine - ABC News

"The conflict has sent their stocks surging, with the share price of Northrop Grumman increasing 40 per cent by the end of 2022, while Lockheed Martin's was up by 37 per cent."- from my link.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Okay, so nothing has actually happened so far, but this is an obvious part of a broader Russian and Chinese strategy to drag the USA and NATO into a series of wars all around the world, so that the allies can't properly support Ukraine and Taiwan (when China invades).  The USA needs to ramp up ammunition production right now.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Did a bit of research on this matter and it is messy.

Apparently this has been a border dispute since about 1819 or so, when Guyana was a British colony and Venezuela was a part of Gran Colombia.  The dispute has had various levels of intensity since then, normally whenever a valuable resource is found such as gold in 1876. 

In the 1950s there was a large movement to get Esequibo as Venezuelan territory and in 1958 the Venezuelan government was planning an invasion of Esequibo but a coup occured before the planning and preparations finished and it never occured.  In 1966 within days of Guyana getting independence from the UK Venezuelan forces invaded and occupied some small islands off the coast of Esequibo claiming it had always been Venezuelan territory and Venezuela still seems to hold the islands.  In 1968 there was a short lived uprising by natives who live in Esequibo wanting their own independent state but the uprising was put down by the Guyana military.

It seems the oil and natural gas was actually discovered closer to 2013 when a naval vessel exploring for oil on the behalf of the Guyana government was detained by the Venezuelan navy.  Despite the protests from Venezuela and the territory still being contested in 2015 the Guyana government awarded a contract to Exxon to begin drilling for oil in the area causing the Venezuelan navy to begin patrolling the disputed naval area and for the Venezuelan government to issue a decree in 2021 to reinforce the Venezuelan territorial claim over Esequibo and the maritime boundary.  

In 2018 court cases have been started in the International Court of Justice and the case is still ongoing with the most recent ruling being that thr ICJ has jurisdiction over this territorial dispute.

While it is possible Russia is pushing Venezuela to cause problems in the western hemisphere to further distract America and spread American resources thin its also equally possible this is part of the periodic flare up of territorial issues that have been going on since the early 1800s.  

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Brazilian intelligence is saying that Venezuela is about to initiate military action against Guyana.  Seems likely that war is about to touch the western hemisphere directly.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another little detail:  Venezuela's self-appointed president, Maduro, is up for re-election next year.  A war would be just what he needs to put off the election and declare himself President-for-life.

Doug

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Venezuela voted today on what to do with Esequibo and each of the five questions got over 95% yes.  As for the questions to copy from Wikipedia cause I'm lazy.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Venezuelan_referendum#:~:text=The referendum consisted of five,Esequiba state%2C granting its population

1. Do you agree to reject by all means in accordance with the law, the line fraudulently interposed by the 1899 Paris Arbitration Award, which seeks to deprive us of our Guayana Esequiba?
 
2. Do you support the 1966 Geneva Agreement as the only valid legal instrument to reach a practical and satisfactory solution for Venezuela and Guyana regarding the controversy over the territory of Guayana Esequiba?
 
3. Do you agree with Venezuela's historical position of not recognizing the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice to resolve the territorial controversy over Guayana Esequiba?
 
4. Do you agree to oppose, by all legal means, Guyana's claim to unilaterally dispose of a sea pending delimitation, illegally and in violation of international law?
 
5. Do you agree with the creation of the Guayana Esequiba state and the development of an accelerated plan for comprehensive care for the current and future population of that territory, which includes, among others, the granting of citizenship and identity card? Venezuela, in accordance with the Geneva Agreement and International Law, consequently incorporating said state on the map of Venezuelan territory?

Essentially Venezuela voted to annex Esequibo with 95%+ of those who voted saying yes to each of those five questions.  As for the legitimacy of the vote it seems only about 10.5 million people out of approximately 20 million capable of voting did.  From what I read it's believed by some analysts those that oppose Maduro and the annexation of Esequibo overwhelmingly did not go out to vote while those that did approve of Maduro and the annexation overwhelming did go out to vote.  Seems initially little to no vote tampering, haven't heard any claims of it yet, but approximately half the voting population didn't vote so not the most legitimate election result.

As for the 1966 Geneva Agreement it basically was an agreement between the UK (Guyana was still a colonial holding of the UK at the time) to settle the dispute.  The agreement has eighter articles.  The first article is about establishing a mixed commission to come to a solution acceptable to Venezuela and British Guyana.  The second article is about how the mixed commission will pick two representatives from Venezuela and two from British Guyana within two months of the agreement coming into force.  It also goes into how to replace representatives and how the representatives can bring in experts.  The third article is about how every six months the mixed commission will submit reports.  The fourth article is about how after 4 years if the matter isn't resolved the mixed commission will ask outstanding questions to Venezuela and Guyana and the governments will both answer.  If the dispute still isn't resolved then they both got to agree to some UN organ to decide the matter, if they can't agree it goes to the UN secretary-general to pick a UN organ to decide and they will try all means stipulated in Artile 33 of the Charter of the UN until a resolution is found or all peaceful means of resolution have been exhausted.  As an aside I suspect Venezuela will soon claim all peaceful means have been exhausted.  Article five is essentially just saying nothing in this agreement or anything that occurs during the time this agreement is in effect will effect the claimed territorial sovereignty of each party involved (essentially no one has denounced or claimed any territory).  Article sixth is both Venezuela and Guyana will pick and agree to the location of the final meeting.  Article seven is that the agreement takes effect t immediately once signed.  Lastly article eight is about how the government of Guyana will take over all aspects for British Guyana once it gets its full independence.

As for what happens next no one knows but Brazil has still moved some of its military to the northern boarder of both and the population of Guyana seems tense.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/4/2023 at 4:19 AM, DarkHunter said:

approximately half the voting population didn't vote so not the most legitimate election result.

That's better than the 10-30% we usually see in US off-year elections.

 

The Maduro government usurped power in 2018 in elections widely believed to have been fraudulent.  The Guaido government is backed by the National Assembly and supports democratic norms.  We may be seeing the beginnings of a revolution in Venezuela.  The US has agreements with Brazil that it will come in on Brazil's side in a dispute.  We could get drawn into a war with Venezuela.

Doug

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is plunging ahead with its plans to take over Essequibo, the oil-rich region controlled by neighbouring Guyana.

He has ordered the state oil company to issue extraction licences there and proposed the National Assembly pass a bill making the area part of Venezuela.

Guyana has put its defence forces on full alert in response.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67635646

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The difficult part of being a small oil rich country.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 
53 minutes ago, Eldorado said:

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is plunging ahead with its plans to take over Essequibo, the oil-rich region controlled by neighbouring Guyana.

He has ordered the state oil company to issue extraction licences there and proposed the National Assembly pass a bill making the area part of Venezuela.

Guyana has put its defence forces on full alert in response.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67635646

Am I the only one that finds it humorous that the first thing they did was issue oil licenses?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Gromdor said:

Am I the only one that finds it humorous that the first thing they did was issue oil licenses?

Nope. I wonder if we'll get the Exxon military in there to protect their investment.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guyana is preparing for invasion by Venezuela. Venezuela is upset over Guyana giving the US Southern Command a green light to enter Essequibo. According to the release from our Embassy in Guyana, We are assisting them.

Guyana's president says country is preparing to defend itself from Venezuela over disputed area - ABC News (go.com)

The president said in a statement late Tuesday that his administration has reached out to the U.S., neighboring Brazil, the United Kingdom, France, the U.N. secretary general and the U.S. Southern Command, which oversees military operations in Central and South America and the Caribbean.

Ali also accused Venezuela of defying a ruling that the International Court of Justice in the Netherlands issued last week. It ordered Venezuela not to take any action until the court rules on the countries’ competing claims, a process expected to take years.

Venezuela’s government condemned Ali's statement, accusing Guyana of acting irresponsibly and allegedly giving the U.S. Southern Command a green light to enter the Essequibo region.

 

U.S. Army, Guyana Defence Forces Strengthen Military Partnership - U.S. Embassy in Guyana (usembassy.gov)

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.