Why we still underestimate what groups like Hamas are capable of

[Kittens Are Jerks]

Why we still underestimate what groups like Hamas are capable of

On August 6, 2001, George W. Bush was given what may be the most infamous daily intelligence brief ever received by a US president. It was titled “Bin Ladin Determined to Strike in US,” and it included details on the activities of al-Qaeda operatives in the US, including threats to hijack US aircraft. In response, Bush did virtually nothing. And then, a little over a month later, those predictions came stunningly true with the 9/11 attacks.

Bush would not be the last leader to ignore such a warning. Decades into the “war on terror,” it’s clear that political leaders, as well as some of the world’s most powerful militaries and intelligence, still underestimate the ability and ambition of extremist militant groups to carry out large-scale attacks. There have now been three major instances of such failures in the past decade.

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/12/13/23998928/hamas-taliban-isis-attacks-terrorism-extremist-groups-israel-palestine

[Grim Reaper 6]

53 minutes ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

Why we still underestimate what groups like Hamas are capable of

On August 6, 2001, George W. Bush was given what may be the most infamous daily intelligence brief ever received by a US president. It was titled “Bin Ladin Determined to Strike in US,” and it included details on the activities of al-Qaeda operatives in the US, including threats to hijack US aircraft. In response, Bush did virtually nothing. And then, a little over a month later, those predictions came stunningly true with the 9/11 attacks.

Bush would not be the last leader to ignore such a warning. Decades into the “war on terror,” it’s clear that political leaders, as well as some of the world’s most powerful militaries and intelligence, still underestimate the ability and ambition of extremist militant groups to carry out large-scale attacks. There have now been three major instances of such failures in the past decade.

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/12/13/23998928/hamas-taliban-isis-attacks-terrorism-extremist-groups-israel-palestine

Great  thread, hope it takes off it will make an Interesting conversation.

 

[Gromdor]

I don't think we underestimate them so much as ignore them because they further an agenda.

Take the recent revelation about Bibi sending suitcases of money to Hamas to prop them up against the PLA for instance.  He knows that they are against him, but the fear of Hamas gives him support both in Israel and abroad.  So he wants them to exist and he wants them to counter other threats.

[Kittens Are Jerks]

4 hours ago, Gromdor said:

I don't think we underestimate them so much as ignore them because they further an agenda.

I think that in the case of Israel and Hamas, it may have been a combination of both. I think Hamas was 'ignored' because the Israelis did not deem them a significant threat. At the same time, one does have to wonder why, in spite of the intelligence the Israelis received, they did not divert their attention to them. The following article offers one explanation:

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-12-11/israel-hamas-gaza-attack-intelligence-failure-benjamin-netanyahu-george-bush-vladimir-putin

Specifically:

As leaders become more insular and closed-minded, the quality of their information and decisions deteriorates. When security is on the line, the results can be tragic. Benjamin Netanyahu’s secretive, ideologically rigid leadership style in that way helped undermine Israel’s security and imperil his people. He isn’t the first such world leader whose miscalculations led to such a disaster.

And also this:

Under Netanyahu, Israel’s intelligence agencies have tended to elevate reports that affirm his security credentials and suppress those that suggest weaknesses. The IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate, Aman, also has too many analysts who are poorly integrated into the agency, preventing lower-level officers from “connecting dots,” according to Haifa University’s Uri Bar-Joseph.

[Tatetopa]

I think part of it lies in our history with what we think of as non-state actors.  30 years ago, terrorist groups had far fewer resources, weapons, money, and communication networks than they do today.  A group like Hamas can now have a global network, raise millions of dollars and field advanced weapons like missiles, and even apparently cruise missiles. They can move resources between countries with relative ease.

JMO, the Israeli announcements about taking out senior Hamas leaders is more for propaganda value than anything.  I don't think the senior leaders, the real planners and fund raisers are hiding in Gaza tunnels.

[psyche101]

14 hours ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

Why we still underestimate what groups like Hamas are capable of

On August 6, 2001, George W. Bush was given what may be the most infamous daily intelligence brief ever received by a US president. It was titled “Bin Ladin Determined to Strike in US,” and it included details on the activities of al-Qaeda operatives in the US, including threats to hijack US aircraft. In response, Bush did virtually nothing. And then, a little over a month later, those predictions came stunningly true with the 9/11 attacks.

Bush would not be the last leader to ignore such a warning. Decades into the “war on terror,” it’s clear that political leaders, as well as some of the world’s most powerful militaries and intelligence, still underestimate the ability and ambition of extremist militant groups to carry out large-scale attacks. There have now been three major instances of such failures in the past decade.

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/12/13/23998928/hamas-taliban-isis-attacks-terrorism-extremist-groups-israel-palestine

There's a documentary called The Man Who Knew, it's about John O Neil and 911. I think you would really like it. 

 

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/showsknew/

[Kittens Are Jerks]

11 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

JMO, the Israeli announcements about taking out senior Hamas leaders is more for propaganda value than anything.  I don't think the senior leaders, the real planners and fund raisers are hiding in Gaza tunnels.

I know that Israeli soldiers searched the home of top Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar recently and found no sign of him. They suspect he's somewhere in one of the tunnels and he might be. But he also has the means and resources to flee to another country, and he might have done so, There's no doubt that Hamas has some leadership still on the ground in Gaza, but I suspect you're also right in that many at the 'higher end' are nowhere near the conflict.

[Kittens Are Jerks]

5 hours ago, psyche101 said:

There's a documentary called The Man Who Knew, it's about John O Neil and 911. I think you would really like it.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/showsknew/

Thank you for this, I will definitely watch it. I didn't know about John O'Neil until now. Talk about irony of fate!

[itsnotoutthere]

https://www.turbulenttimes.co.uk/news/front-page/media-hamas-shills/