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Brexit: New report suggests UK £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU


pellinore

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We are still waiting for a Brexit benefit that doesn't include the non-existent pint of champagne.

Brexit has cost the UK £140bn so far, according to new analysis, and could see the nation £311bn worse off by the middle of the next decade, according to a new report.

Economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics - commissioned by London's mayor, Sadiq Khan - have modelled how the UK's economy would have acted were it still in the European Union.

This was compared to data published by the Office for Budget of Responsibility in March 2023, and forecasts based on those data. Those official forecasts have since been downgraded as of November last year.

The headline findings from the report include lower growth, lower employment, strong negative impacts on investment, imports falling more than exports, and a growing gap between London and the rest of the UK.

Brexit: New report suggests UK £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU | Politics News | Sky News

Edited by pellinore
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Sad IQ commissioning reports again? About as accurate as his ULEZ scam report I see. Nice way to apply for his next gravy train job. How can you not see this?

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5 hours ago, Electric Scooter said:

Another round of @pellinore anti-Brexit entertainment coming up.

5 hours ago, OpenMindedSceptic said:

Sad IQ commissioning reports again? About as accurate as his ULEZ scam report I see. Nice way to apply for his next gravy train job. How can you not see this?

The truth hurts, doesn't it?

The analysis by Cambridge Econometrics, commissioned by City Hall, also found that the average Briton was nearly £2,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was nearly £3,400 worse off last year as a result of the UK's exit from the EU.

Mr Khan told the event that the UK urgently needs to build a closer relationship with the EU to help 'arrest the decline'. 

London's Brexit fallout and the staggering amount of money and jobs city 'has missed out on' due to leaving EU (msn.com)

Edited by pellinore
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3 hours ago, pellinore said:

The truth hurts, doesn't it?

The analysis by Cambridge Econometrics, commissioned by City Hall, also found that the average Briton was nearly £2,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was nearly £3,400 worse off last year as a result of the UK's exit from the EU.

Mr Khan told the event that the UK urgently needs to build a closer relationship with the EU to help 'arrest the decline'. 

London's Brexit fallout and the staggering amount of money and jobs city 'has missed out on' due to leaving EU (msn.com)

'The truth hurts, doesn't it?'   Not really. The clue to this hit piece is in the title :-  New report suggests UK £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU

"A report I read a few weeks ago suggests by 2030 we will be much better off than all other EU countries, because of Brexit" 

See, I can write stuff like that too.

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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12 hours ago, pellinore said:

 

We are still waiting for a Brexit benefit that doesn't include the non-existent pint of champagne.

Brexit has cost the UK £140bn so far, according to new analysis, and could see the nation £311bn worse off by the middle of the next decade, according to a new report.

Economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics - commissioned by London's mayor, Sadiq Khan - have modelled how the UK's economy would have acted were it still in the European Union.

This was compared to data published by the Office for Budget of Responsibility in March 2023, and forecasts based on those data. Those official forecasts have since been downgraded as of November last year.

The headline findings from the report include lower growth, lower employment, strong negative impacts on investment, imports falling more than exports, and a growing gap between London and the rest of the UK.

Brexit: New report suggests UK £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU | Politics News | Sky News

Those figures are the product of pretty expensive economic modelling (paid for from our taxes, obviously). The core claim is that the UK economy would be £140bn larger if only we'd stayed in the EU, or, to put it another way, the UK economy is now 6.3% smaller than if Brexit hadn't happened.

This report is the follow-up to another commissioned by Sadiq Khan in 2018. That one estimated the economic impact of a 'No Deal' Brexit at 3% by 2030, compared to staying in the EU, so how do you go from 'The most disruptive possible Brexit will cost us 3% of GVA by 2030' to 'A pretty amicable Brexit has already cost us 6.3% of GVA in 2023' with a straight face, especially since you are using the same underlying in-house model. 🤔

These 'Brexit has cost us £140bn/6.3% so far/Brexit will cost us £311bn by 2035' figures are all crystal ball predictions from a group with a reputation for getting it wrong. It's all anti-Brexit propaganda. It's a campaign to mislead the people. Khan is knowingly lying through his teeth to get the UK to rejoin, and it's ironic that you Remoaners are falling for it, whilst at the same time telling Leave voters they fell for Leave campaign lies. 🤦👇👇👇👇

https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1745489248399044644?t=g8cv2NL-3__THvkKTJtwDg&s=19

 

The company that compiled the report. Spoiler alert: They list the EU Commission as one of their clients on their website. So obviously no conflict of interest there then eh pellinore. 🤔👇👇👇👇

https://www.camecon.com/#

 

Edited by Destination Unknown
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2 hours ago, itsnotoutthere said:

'The truth hurts, doesn't it?'   Not really. The clue to this hit piece is in the title :-  New report suggests UK £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU

"A report I read a few weeks ago suggests by 2030 we will be much better off than all other EU countries, because of Brexit" 

See, I can write stuff like that too.

The economists use the word "suggest" because it is a forecast. It will be a "fact" once we reach that date:

Using data Office for Budget of Responsibility data and forecasts based on the organisation’s data, the report predicts that the UK’s GVA will hit £2,771bn by 2035.

But this is £311bn lower than the £3,082bn GVA figure the nation would have reached without deciding to leave the EU.

The economists worked to isolate the “Brexit effect” from other factors such as Covid and the Ukraine war in its modelling.

They found Britain will have 32 per cent lower investment, 16 per cent lower imports and 5 per cent lower exports by the middle of the next decade than without Brexit.

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38 minutes ago, Destination Unknown said:

Those figures are the product of pretty expensive economic modelling (paid for from our taxes, obviously). The core claim is that the UK economy would be £140bn larger if only we'd stayed in the EU, or, to put it another way, the UK economy is now 6.3% smaller than if Brexit hadn't happened.

This report is the follow-up to another commissioned by Sadiq Khan in 2018. That one estimated the economic impact of a 'No Deal' Brexit at 3% by 2030, compared to staying in the EU, so how do you go from 'The most disruptive possible Brexit will cost us 3% of GVA by 2030' to 'A pretty amicable Brexit has already cost us 6.3% of GVA in 2023' with a straight face, especially since you are using the same underlying in-house model. 🤔

These 'Brexit has cost us £140bn/6.3% so far/Brexit will cost us £311bn by 2035' figures are all crystal ball predictions from a group with a reputation for getting it wrong. It's all anti-Brexit propaganda. It's a campaign to mislead the people. Khan is knowingly lying through his teeth to get the UK to rejoin, and it's ironic that you Remoaners are falling for it, whilst at the same time telling Leave voters they fell for Leave campaign lies. 🤦👇👇👇👇

https://twitter.com/rcolvile/status/1745489248399044644?t=g8cv2NL-3__THvkKTJtwDg&s=19

 

The company that compiled the report. Spoiler alert: They list the EU Commission as one of their clients on their website. So obviously no conflict of interest there then eh pellinore. 🤔👇👇👇👇

https://www.camecon.com/#

 

Simple common sense should tell you that erecting trade barriers against yourself will reduce trade. Reducing trade is what Brexit does. Farming and fishing have also both contracted about 20%, partly due to lack of EU workers, and partly because of trade friction. Economists are careful to extrapolate the effects from the added damage of Covid and the Ukraine war.

Just wishing something was different does not make it different. I wish Brexit wasn't so damaging, but it is.

Still, we have blue passports now (which we could have had anyway) and can bottle wine in pints (which we could have done anyway, give or take a few mills; and which no one wants to sell, and no one wants to buy). So you've got something to celebrate.

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2 hours ago, itsnotoutthere said:

'The truth hurts, doesn't it?'   Not really. The clue to this hit piece is in the title :-  New report suggests UK £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU

"A report I read a few weeks ago suggests by 2030 we will be much better off than all other EU countries, because of Brexit" 

See, I can write stuff like that too.

How to spot someone who left education at 16...

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22 minutes ago, Setton said:

How to spot someone who left education at 16...

Well as the saying goes, those that can do, those that can't teach.

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1 hour ago, pellinore said:

Simple common sense should tell you that erecting trade barriers against yourself will reduce trade. Reducing trade is what Brexit does.

That's "your" version of "simple common sense", which is becoming increasingly obvious to me is something that you obviously don't have.

Total UK exports of goods and services to the EU in 2015 (pre-Brexit) was valued at £223.3bn (Source: ONS).

Total UK exports of goods and services to the EU in the 12 months to end of June 2023 was valued at £362.4bn (Source: ONS). 👇👇👇👇

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-trade-in-numbers/uk-trade-in-numbers-web-version

 

1 hour ago, pellinore said:

Farming and fishing have also both contracted about 20%

Try telling that load of absolute crap to Dutch farmers, who have been protesting against their Government's plans to buy up and close down 3,000 farms in order to comply with the EU's rules on reducing nitrogen emissions. The perfect example of creeping EU overreach. Or how about Irish farmers, who have been protesting against their Government's plans to cull 200,000 cows, again, in order to comply with European Union emissions standards? 👇👇👇👇

https://www.beefcentral.com/news/irish-farmers-protest-plans-to-cull-200000-cows-elon-musk-weighs-in/

 

Whilst in the post-Brexit UK you obviously despise so much, from the website 'Fishing News', 17th January 2023, quote: "Brixham fishmarket saw a record-breaking £60.8m worth of fish auctioned during 2022. The amount smashes its previous record of £43.6m, set in 2021, and includes a first-ever £2m week for the market, recorded in September."

https://fishingnews.co.uk/news/brixham-smashes-record-with-60m-sales/#:~:text=Brixham fishmarket saw a record,the market%2C recorded in September.

 

Meanwhile, in your beloved EU. From the website 'Fishing Daily', July 28th 2022: "Decommissioning scheme is another tragedy for Irish fishing"

Quote: The European Commission has today approved an €80 million decommissioning scheme to reduce the size of the Irish fishing fleet by another 60 vessels. This will take the size of the offshore fleet over 18 metres to about one third of what it was in 2006 (280 down to 100).

Following the announcement, Sinn Fein Spokesperson on Fisheries, Padraig Mac Lochlainn said, quote: "Today's announcement is another tragic blow to our fishing and coastal communities. The intentional and managed collapse of our fishing industry is truly shocking."

https://thefishingdaily.com/latest-news/decommissioning-scheme-is-another-tragedy-for-irish-fishing-mac-lochlainn/

 

1 hour ago, pellinore said:

Economists are careful to extrapolate the effects from the added damage of Covid and the Ukraine war.

Again, that is just guesswork, because how can it accurately be determined how the other factors that are causing economic uncertainty, (Covid and Ukraine) would not be causing economic uncertainty anyway even if Brexit hadn't even happened?

To put it another way: How much of an issue would Brexit actually be if the other factors were not at play? 🤔

 

1 hour ago, pellinore said:

Just wishing something was different does not make it different. I wish Brexit wasn't so damaging, but it is.

Well you obviously wish for a post-Brexit UK (your own country) to burn to the ground, just so you can gleefully sneer and say "I told you so", but annoyingly for you, Brexit isn't as damaging as you're trying to make it out to be, because according to new data from 'Companies House', 436,000 new businesses were registered in the UK between January and June 2023.

That's 34,000 more new businesses set up in the first half of 2023 alone than the 402,000 in the same time period in 2022 (which was a record year for UK company formations by the way, when 805,141 companies were formed, which itself was also an increase on the previous record, set in 2020, when 780,766 companies were started). 👇👇👇👇

https://uktechnews.co.uk/2023/09/15/436000-new-businesses-registered-in-the-first-half-of-2023/

 

Meanwhile, in your beloved EU, more than 55,000 companies closed in France in 2023, which is the highest figure since 2017. Ooops. 🤦👇👇👇👇

https://www.azernews.az/region/219964.html

 

 

1 hour ago, pellinore said:

Still, we have blue passports now (which we could have had anyway)

Can't you Remoaners come out with anything more original than that tired old "blue passports" sneer?

Why do you never address the real reason why many people voted to Leave the EU and say something like, "Still, we've finally got out of that wannabe federal European Superstate where we would ultimately be answerable to a Politburo based in Brussels" instead eh? 🤔👇👇👇👇

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/12/01/mario-draghi-european-union-single-megastate-italy/

Edited by Destination Unknown
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13 minutes ago, Destination Unknown said:

That's "your" version of "simple common sense", which is becoming increasingly obvious to me is something that you obviously don't have.

Total UK exports of goods and services to the EU in 2015 (pre-Brexit) was valued at £223.3bn (Source: ONS).

Total UK exports of goods and services to the EU in the 12 months to end of June 2023 was valued at £362.4bn (Source: ONS). 👇👇👇👇

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-trade-in-numbers/uk-trade-in-numbers-web-version

 

Try telling that load of absolute crap to Dutch farmers, who have been protesting against their Government's plans to buy up and close down 3,000 farms in order to comply with the EU's rules on reducing nitrogen emissions. The perfect example of creeping EU overreach. Or how about Irish farmers, who have been protesting against their Government's plans to cull 200,000 cows, again, in order to comply with European Union emissions standards? 👇👇👇👇

https://www.beefcentral.com/news/irish-farmers-protest-plans-to-cull-200000-cows-elon-musk-weighs-in/

 

Whilst in the post-Brexit UK you obviously despise so much, from the website 'Fishing News', 17th January 2023, quote: "Brixham fishmarket saw a record-breaking £60.8m worth of fish auctioned during 2022. The amount smashes its previous record of £43.6m, set in 2021, and includes a first-ever £2m week for the market, recorded in September."

https://fishingnews.co.uk/news/brixham-smashes-record-with-60m-sales/#:~:text=Brixham fishmarket saw a record,the market%2C recorded in September.

 

Meanwhile, in your beloved EU. From the website 'Fishing Daily', July 28th 2022: "Decommissioning scheme is another tragedy for Irish fishing"

Quote: The European Commission has today approved an €80 million decommissioning scheme to reduce the size of the Irish fishing fleet by another 60 vessels. This will take the size of the offshore fleet over 18 metres to about one third of what it was in 2006 (280 down to 100).

Following the announcement, Sinn Fein Spokesperson on Fisheries, Padraig Mac Lochlainn said, quote: "Today's announcement is another tragic blow to our fishing and coastal communities. The intentional and managed collapse of our fishing industry is truly shocking."

https://thefishingdaily.com/latest-news/decommissioning-scheme-is-another-tragedy-for-irish-fishing-mac-lochlainn/

 

Again, that is just guesswork, because how can it accurately be determined how the other factors that are causing economic uncertainty, (Covid and Ukraine) would not be causing economic uncertainty anyway even if Brexit hadn't even happened?

To put it another way: How much of an issue would Brexit actually be if the other factors were not at play? 🤔

 

Well you obviously wish for a post-Brexit UK (your own country) to burn to the ground, just so you can gleefully sneer and say "I told you so", but annoyingly for you, Brexit isn't as damaging as you're trying to make it out to be, because according to new data from 'Companies House', 436,000 new businesses were registered in the UK between January and June 2023.

That's 34,000 more new businesses set up in the first half of 2023 alone than the 402,000 in the same time period in 2022 (which was a record year for UK company formations by the way, when 805,141 companies were formed, which itself was also an increase on the previous record, set in 2020, when 780,766 companies were started). 👇👇👇👇

https://uktechnews.co.uk/2023/09/15/436000-new-businesses-registered-in-the-first-half-of-2023/

 

Meanwhile, in your beloved EU, more than 55,000 companies closed in France in 2023, which is the highest figure since 2017. Ooops. 🤦👇👇👇👇

https://www.azernews.az/region/219964.html

 

 

Can't you Remoaners come out with anything more original than that tired old "blue passports" sneer?

Why do you never address the real reason why many people voted to Leave the EU and say something like, "Still, we've finally got out of that wannabe federal European Superstate where we would ultimately be answerable to a Politburo based in Brussels" instead eh? 🤔👇👇👇👇

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/12/01/mario-draghi-european-union-single-megastate-italy/

All excellent points, however you are talking to someone whos main priority is a slightly shorter queue at passport control.

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An economic forecast predicts that due to low year on year economic growth of the major members of the EU (included the UK in the past), we would be £850 billion better off if we had never gone into it in the first place.

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In the meantime Brussels bureaucracy homes in on the important stuff. 

France melts down millions of coins because EU says its stars don’t look right.

France has destroyed and reminted 27 million coins after failing to ask the EU for design approval.

The Monnaie de Paris, the country's mint, produced the 10, 20 and 50 cent coins with a new pattern in November but later discovered that the way the stars of the EU flag had been depicted was not compliant with the European Commission's very precise requirements.

Obvious that the near invisible stars should be fully compliant,  and the cost of remanufacture in todays environment is not a problem. 

The EU doing what the EU does best.

https://www.politico.eu/article/france-euro-coins-destroyed-brussels-veto-on-new-design/

 

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UK GDP GROWTH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED IN NOVEMBER

According to latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK economy grew by 0.3% in November 23, higher than city analysts expected. 

James Smith, Research Director at the Resolution Foundation, said:

“The economy grew more strongly than expected between October and November, driven by a recovery in our services sector including strong black Friday retail sales and a high performing ICT sector.

https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases/stronger-than-expected-growth-in-november-gives-britain-a-fighting-chance-of-avoiding-recession/

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UK economy is set to outstrip France and gain on Germany

Centre for Economics and Business Research predicts that the UK is likely to maintain its position as the sixth-largest global economy

The UK economy is set to grow more quickly than France in coming years, making it almost 20 per cent larger by 2038, and narrowing the gap with Germany.

According to this year’s world economic league table from the Centre for Economics and Business Research, the UK is likely to maintain its position as the sixth-largest global economy.

The UK economy is expected to be 10.2 per cent larger than France in 2033, this is forecast to increase to 19.9 per cent by 2038. In that same period, the gap between the UK and Germany — which is nearly a third larger than the UK — is expected to narrow slightly to 28.8 per cent.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-economy-will-grow-more-quickly-than-france-in-coming-years-dbr8ltfch

 

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10 hours ago, itsnotoutthere said:

Well as the saying goes, those that can do, those that can't teach.

A cliche for those who never learned anything.

Who taught you to do your job? Someone who knew how to do it or someone who didn't?

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23 hours ago, itsnotoutthere said:

All excellent points, however you are talking to someone whos main priority is a slightly shorter queue at passport control.

He's so one-sidedely blinkered he's a lost cause, but it's great fun ripping him to shreds every single time - (I have yet to meet one Remoaner with a compelling argument for being in the EU. They lose on the democratic argument, they lose on the political argument, they lose on the economic argument. They lose on everything).

He's so desperate to try and prove that Brexit is causing the UK endless problems that he latches onto anything negative, no matter what it is, and immediately tries to link it to Brexit, instead of looking at it objectively and thinking about what it is he's actually posted. He's even tried to claim that French border officials being ill was somehow Brexit's fault, until I ripped that one to shreds as well. (Article: "Three-hour delays at Dover as French border workers call in sick"). 😂😂😂

https://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/forum/topic/373319-three-hour-delays-at-dover-as-french-border-workers-call-in-sick/

Edited by Destination Unknown
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On 1/12/2024 at 7:04 AM, pellinore said:

The truth hurts, doesn't it?

The analysis by Cambridge Econometrics, commissioned by City Hall, also found that the average Briton was nearly £2,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was nearly £3,400 worse off last year as a result of the UK's exit from the EU.

Mr Khan told the event that the UK urgently needs to build a closer relationship with the EU to help 'arrest the decline'. 

London's Brexit fallout and the staggering amount of money and jobs city 'has missed out on' due to leaving EU (msn.com)

Sad IQ has a track record for asking scientists to put any old nonsense in reports, as witnessed with ULEZ. So, as for truth hurting, personally I have not felt any pain as I do not side with Liebour cronies. My own business has thrived through Brexit as I am entrepreneurial and not feckless. More Brexit please and more distance from EU please. Less Liebour mayor though, he hurts business and has let crime become rampant.

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