Is a key Atlantic current about to collapse?

[+susieice]

'We are approaching the tipping point': Marker for the collapse of key Atlantic current discovered | Live Science

Scientists have discovered a key warning sign before a crucial Atlantic current collapses and plunges the Northern Hemisphere into climate chaos. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) carries warm water north from the Southern Hemisphere, where it releases heat and freezes. The freezing process concentrates salt in the non-frozen portion of the ocean water; this extra-saline water sinks, travels back south and picks up heat again, restarting the conveyor belt. (The Gulf Stream is part of this belt.) 

This release of heat helps keep Europe, and to some extent North America, balmier than it otherwise would be. But sediment records over the past 100,000 years suggest that, at times, the AMOC has shut down abruptly, leading to major climate shifts over mere decades. 

 

[Doc Socks Junior]

The observable reaches a minimum 25 years before the AMOC collapses (in GCMs). But that's also +/- 20 years or so, to 95% confidence.

Trend is still decreasing. So. At least 25 years out, still.

[+and-then]

4 minutes ago, Doc Socks Junior said:

The observable reaches a minimum 25 years before the AMOC collapses (in GCMs). But that's also +/- 20 years or so, to 95% confidence.

Trend is still decreasing. So. At least 25 years out, still.

Is this the current the movie "THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW" was based on?

[Abramelin]

2 hours ago, susieice said:

'We are approaching the tipping point': Marker for the collapse of key Atlantic current discovered | Live Science

Scientists have discovered a key warning sign before a crucial Atlantic current collapses and plunges the Northern Hemisphere into climate chaos. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) carries warm water north from the Southern Hemisphere, where it releases heat and freezes. The freezing process concentrates salt in the non-frozen portion of the ocean water; this extra-saline water sinks, travels back south and picks up heat again, restarting the conveyor belt. (The Gulf Stream is part of this belt.) 

This release of heat helps keep Europe, and to some extent North America, balmier than it otherwise would be. But sediment records over the past 100,000 years suggest that, at times, the AMOC has shut down abruptly, leading to major climate shifts over mere decades. 

 

Quote:

"Scientists don't have a long enough record of observations of freshwater flow at this spot to predict how far away the AMOC is from a tipping point right now."

[Doc Socks Junior]

10 minutes ago, and-then said:

Is this the current the movie "THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW" was based on?

Yeppers.

I saw that a while ago. I thought it was actually pretty enjoyable as a disaster movie. Albeit not very realistic.

[+susieice]

Thanks for the responses guys. I never really read a lot about ocean currents although I do know what the Gulf Stream is. I've also seen The Day After Tomorrow. So much affects the ocean's currents and I took it to mean North America and Europe would get colder. I looked around and found this article from Wiki about the AMOC and it explains it in more detail. It seems science isn't really sure what's going to happen or when though one group is talking about 2057. . It talks about a lot of different studies that have been done. They seem to think a change in salinity from rivers in Siberia could affect the north Pacific also. 
This was an interesting read even if it is Wiki.

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation - Wikipedia

[Abramelin]

6 hours ago, Doc Socks Junior said:

Yeppers.

I saw that a while ago. I thought it was actually pretty enjoyable as a disaster movie. Albeit not very realistic.

And based on this book:

[docyabut2]

Last Ice Age took just SIX months to arrive

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1227990/Ice-Age-took-just-SIX-months-arrive--10-years.html

climate catastrophe: Rapid climate change was the subject of the Hollywood blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow

Edited February 10 by docyabut2

[docyabut2]

I remembered the congress saying on this topic.  We are going to send something to the moon to reflect the sun`s heat to the earth. One said we are going to be like in a microwave oven.  

Edited February 10 by docyabut2

[Essan]

If the AMOC shuts down, Europe could be plummeted back into ........ the 1970s    

And we may only have one year to wait

Will the Gulf Stream really collapse by 2025?

But, seriously, the main issue (for the UK especially) might well be changes in precipitation (which, globally, is also the biggest danger from global warming - as we're already seeing)

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/01/modeling-what-would-happen-to-the-uk-if-the-gulf-stream-shuts-down/

As for The Day After Tomorrow,  I've watched it loads of times.   It's about as scientifically accurate as Inspector Gadget.

 

[docyabut2]

Magnitude 5.7 earthquake strikes Mauna Loa volcano on Hawaii’s Big Island;

https://apnews.com/article/hawaii-earthquake-pacific-eaba3c465f0fd3269372c785e27f117f

Edited February 10 by docyabut2

[Antigonos]

13 minutes ago, docyabut2 said:

Magnitude 5.7 earthquake strikes Mauna Loa volcano on Hawaii’s Big Island;

https://apnews.com/article/hawaii-earthquake-pacific-eaba3c465f0fd3269372c785e27f117f

What’s the connection to the subject of this thread?

[docyabut2]

2 hours ago, Antigonos said:

What’s the connection to the subject of this thread?

 We can`t depend on climate changes when there `s so many in the past 

[Antigonos]

2 hours ago, docyabut2 said:

 We can`t depend on climate changes when there `s so many in the past 

There’s a big difference between human induced and natural climate change.

This story has nothing to do with either. The Hawaiian islands are volcanic. Nothing unusual here.

[Piney]

8 minutes ago, Antigonos said:

There’s a big difference between human induced and natural climate change.

This story has nothing to do with either. The Hawaiian islands are volcanic. Nothing unusual here.

And they aren't even permanent. As the pacific plate moves over the hotspot new ones form and the old ones erode into seamounts.

[Antigonos]

4 minutes ago, Piney said:

And they aren't even permanent. As the pacific plate moves over the hotspot new ones form and the old ones erode into seamounts.

Interesting that the ancient Hawaiians understood this on some level. They have a  legend saying in effect that the further west you go the older (and cooler) the islands are.

[Antigonos]

9 minutes ago, Piney said:

And they aren't even permanent. As the pacific plate moves over the hotspot new ones form and the old ones erode into seamounts.

Did you ever watch the TLC series How the Earth was Made in the 90s? Fantastic show.

Edited February 10 by Antigonos

[docyabut2]

Dinosaurs that roamed the Earth 250 million years ago knew a world with five times more carbon dioxide than is present on Earth today, researchers say, and new techniques for estimating the amount of carbon dioxide on prehistoric Earth may help scientists predict how Earth's climate may change in the future

https://www.livescience.com/44330-jurassic-dinosaur-carbon-dioxide.html

[docyabut2]

I`m just saying we can `nt put the blame on mankind for the climate changes.

https://hyperallergic.com/828207/climate-protesters-target-monet-painting-in-sweden/

Edited February 11 by docyabut2

[Antigonos]

55 minutes ago, docyabut2 said:

I`m just saying we can `nt put the blame on mankind for the climate changes.

https://hyperallergic.com/828207/climate-protesters-target-monet-painting-in-sweden/

I’m only going to say it one more time.

There is natural climate change, and there is human induced climate change.

They are both real, and they are not the same thing.

[Essan]

2 hours ago, docyabut2 said:

I`m just saying we can `nt put the blame on mankind for the climate changes.

https://hyperallergic.com/828207/climate-protesters-target-monet-painting-in-sweden/

Yes we can.  

If someone dies of cancer we can attribute that to natural causes.  If someone dies from a gunshot wound, then that is not natural causes, it is 100% human causes.   Same with climate change.  It happens naturally (death by cancer), but it also happens as a result of human activity (death by gunshot).  You cannot deny the latter doesn't happen just because the former does.   But that is what climate deniers want you to believe 🙁

[docyabut2]

Flip Flop: Why Variations in Earth's Magnetic Field Aren't Causing Today's Climate Change?

https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3104/flip-flop-why-variations-in-earths-magnetic-field-arent-causing-todays-climate-change/

Edited February 11 by docyabut2

[pallidin]

20 hours ago, docyabut2 said:

Flip Flop: Why Variations in Earth's Magnetic Field Aren't Causing Today's Climate Change?

https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3104/flip-flop-why-variations-in-earths-magnetic-field-arent-causing-todays-climate-change/

I can readily see that people here are trying to help you understand the general gist, but you become instantly defensive and go on a tangent as if to "prove" an earlier point or position-- which it does not.

Chill. No-one's attacking you. At least not that I can see.

 

[Occupational Hubris]

On 2/11/2024 at 7:48 AM, docyabut2 said:

I`m just saying we can `nt put the blame on mankind for the climate changes.

 

We absolutely can place the blame on humans for the recent warming trend. 

[docyabut2]

Oceans May Absorb More Carbon Dioxide

Plankton may absorb more of the CO2 causing climate change than previously thought, according to new research

 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/oceans-may-absorb-more-carbon-dioxide/