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The UK is in recession


pellinore

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It took 4 years to get here. It just shows how strong our economy was.

It was a combination of higher inflation and interest rates that hit consumers' spending, pushing the UK economy further into reverse.

But with all major sectors contracting, the economy suffered by more than expected at the end of 2023.

That, by most economists' measures, constitutes a recession and was enough to scupper the government's pledge to grow the economy last year.

GDP figures: UK entered recession in 2023, new figures show - BBC News

Edited by pellinore
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  • The title was changed to The UK is in recession

Relax, we are just shifting from a Butter Economy to a Guns Economy ahead of the looming conflicts.  Invest in anything military right now.

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12 minutes ago, Alchopwn said:

Relax, we are just shifting from a Butter Economy to a Guns Economy ahead of the looming conflicts.  Invest in anything military right now.

Looks that way. Europe is ramping up production. I must admit, it has all taken me by surprise, I though Russia was gradually continuing to become integrated with the West.

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I'm sure all the sanctions on Russia by the UK, Germany and Japan had absolutely zero impact on their economies. 

Nothing whatsoever 

🤔

Edited by acidhead
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3 hours ago, acidhead said:

I'm sure all the sanctions on Russia by the UK, Germany and Japan had absolutely zero impact on their economies. 

Nothing whatsoever 

🤔

Probably did. They had a much bigger impact on Russia though.

That's how a conflict goes, losses on both sides.

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The Mail points out that is only immigration that is giving the UK any growth at all. We urgently need to return to freedom of movement, where industries can be supplied with appropriately skilled labour as and when it is needed.

The news is a major setback for the PM, who vowed to grow the economy as one of his five priorities last year.

And the detail of the statistics was even more grim, suggesting only eye-wateringly high levels of immigration have been keeping the economy afloat. 

After the ONS adjusted for new population estimates, GDP per person was down 0.6 per cent in Q4 - and has not gone up since the start of 2022. That is thought to be the longest run since records began 1955. 

(I can't post link for some reason)

Edited by pellinore
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4 hours ago, acidhead said:

I'm sure all the sanctions on Russia by the UK, Germany and Japan had absolutely zero impact on their economies. 

Nothing whatsoever 

🤔

Its going to go on until Trump gets in.

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A minor contraction but unemployment is low and wages are up.

I suspect what is actually going on is a lot of people are saving due to the uncertainty. When they don`t spend, when that money sits there, its lower demand.

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1 hour ago, Electric Scooter said:

A minor contraction but unemployment is low and wages are up.

I suspect what is actually going on is a lot of people are saving due to the uncertainty. When they don`t spend, when that money sits there, its lower demand.

Wages are not up in real terms.

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Germany has effectively been in recession for 2 years. 

The UK is possibly already out of recession.

It has been a very soft recession if it is one.

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5 hours ago, Electric Scooter said:

A minor contraction but unemployment is low and wages are up.

I suspect what is actually going on is a lot of people are saving due to the uncertainty. When they don`t spend, when that money sits there, its lower demand.

A lot of people are living hand to mouth, they have no savings.

One in six UK adults have no savings | Money and Pensions Service (maps.org.uk)

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1 hour ago, OpenMindedSceptic said:

Germany has effectively been in recession for 2 years. 

The UK is possibly already out of recession.

It has been a very soft recession if it is one.

Why do professional economists have a different view? Do they lack your level of expertise and are less qualified than you?

 

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42 minutes ago, pellinore said:

Why do professional economists have a different view? Do they lack your level of expertise and are less qualified than you?

 

We can see that spending across the board has been less since 2008:

Public spending statistics: May 2023 - GOV.UK

That doesn`t show our debt repayments. But spending increases demand, demand increases growth, and because it failed to increase post 2008 and in some cases reduced, we have lower demand in the economy. I have always said this and its true - `The Labour Party cannot manage booms or high growth and the Tories cannot manage recessions or low growth. Its both of their ideologies which prevent it.

That missing 24% of GDP is immediately reclaimable. In economics the greatest performing Chancellor of all time was Hitler. Most people dont know he worked economic miracles, they only know about all the people he killed. But yes, he is one of a very few who actually applied fiscal policy the way an economist would. 

I would advocate for taking running of the economy off politicians and giving it to a board of 50 qualified economic experts.

Edited by Electric Scooter
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20 hours ago, pellinore said:

The Mail points out that is only immigration that is giving the UK any growth at all. We urgently need to return to freedom of movement, where industries can be supplied with appropriately skilled labour as and when it is needed.

The news is a major setback for the PM, who vowed to grow the economy as one of his five priorities last year.

And the detail of the statistics was even more grim, suggesting only eye-wateringly high levels of immigration have been keeping the economy afloat. 

After the ONS adjusted for new population estimates, GDP per person was down 0.6 per cent in Q4 - and has not gone up since the start of 2022. That is thought to be the longest run since records began 1955. 

(I can't post link for some reason)

Really!!!

GGZCkKDXkAABqK0.jpg.26ed557d48c35de2d39113480cdac1a0.jpg

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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17 hours ago, Electric Scooter said:

A minor contraction but unemployment is low and wages are up.

I suspect what is actually going on is a lot of people are saving due to the uncertainty. When they don`t spend, when that money sits there, its lower demand.

No, a lot of people are having to spend more for less food, more for less energy and more for their mortgages.

Net result - people are spending more and buying less.

This is largely a consequence of the war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East and climate change (all of which have pushed up food and fuel costs) - coupled with the BoE's inability to realise that increasing interest rates will not actually solve those particular inflation-causing  issues, and that they are, in fact, just making matters worse.

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52 minutes ago, Essan said:

No, a lot of people are having to spend more for less food, more for less energy and more for their mortgages.

Net result - people are spending more and buying less.

This is largely a consequence of the war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East and climate change (all of which have pushed up food and fuel costs) - coupled with the BoE's inability to realise that increasing interest rates will not actually solve those particular inflation-causing  issues, and that they are, in fact, just making matters worse.

GDP is a measure of economic activity in terms of value, not the volume of products and services sold.

People and businesses cannot be spending all their money or there would be no recession. Overall savings must be increasing somewhere.

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On 2/15/2024 at 3:07 AM, pellinore said:

Looks that way. Europe is ramping up production. I must admit, it has all taken me by surprise, I though Russia was gradually continuing to become integrated with the West.

Americans never allow it as Putin has told us 😀

There's always need for competition,  I get it. " Peace is boring for war mongers "

 

Edited by qxcontinuum
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21 hours ago, pellinore said:

Why do professional economists have a different view? Do they lack your level of expertise and are less qualified than you?

 

They obviously do lack my expertise. If you keep the graphs going just a few more weeks, anyone could see. But they didn't. The latest figures suggest we are out of recession already. So.much for professional economists!!!

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1 hour ago, OpenMindedSceptic said:

They obviously do lack my expertise. If you keep the graphs going just a few more weeks, anyone could see. But they didn't. The latest figures suggest we are out of recession already. So.much for professional economists!!!

You make a sound point. Economists use very narrow definitions (a recession is defined as 6 months of contraction). And it can only be measured after the 6 months of contraction, so even if a country's economy is recovering, this isn't seen until another 3 months has passed, and measured after another quarter. But it strikes me that up till now some people in the UK were jubilant that Germany has seen a recession, and the UK hadn't; yet here we are, in the same boat. The truth is all of Europe has been struggling to restore growth after Covid, the Ukraine War, and now the Red Sea crisis. But only one Western European country has erected trade barriers, and that is us, so we will struggle more than most to regain lost ground. And don't forget we have been banking on favourable trading with the other side of the world rather than 20 miles away in our own continent, so international crises will affect us more.

Edited by pellinore
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On 2/15/2024 at 1:46 PM, Setton said:

Wages are not up in real terms.

Yes they are. Annoyingly for you, UK wage data tells a different story in a report published just this week, with salary growth remaining higher than projected, outstripping inflation for another month. 🤔

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/19851-pound-to-euro-and-dollar-uk-wages-january

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2 hours ago, pellinore said:

You make a sound point. Economists use very narrow definitions (a recession is defined as 6 months of contraction). And it can only be measured after the 6 months of contraction, so even if a country's economy is recovering, this isn't seen until another 3 months has passed, and measured after another quarter. But it strikes me that up till now some people in the UK were jubilant that Germany has seen a recession, and the UK hadn't; yet here we are, in the same boat. The truth is all of Europe has been struggling to restore growth after Covid, the Ukraine War, and now the Red Sea crisis. But only one Western European country has erected trade barriers, and that is us, so we will struggle more than most to regain lost ground. And don't forget we have been banking on favourable trading with the other side of the world rather than 20 miles away in our own continent, so international crises will affect us more.

The recession will be caused by people and businesses saving.

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6 hours ago, pellinore said:

You make a sound point. Economists use very narrow definitions (a recession is defined as 6 months of contraction). And it can only be measured after the 6 months of contraction, so even if a country's economy is recovering, this isn't seen until another 3 months has passed, and measured after another quarter. But it strikes me that up till now some people in the UK were jubilant that Germany has seen a recession, and the UK hadn't; yet here we are, in the same boat. The truth is all of Europe has been struggling to restore growth after Covid, the Ukraine War, and now the Red Sea crisis. But only one Western European country has erected trade barriers, and that is us, so we will struggle more than most to regain lost ground. And don't forget we have been banking on favourable trading with the other side of the world rather than 20 miles away in our own continent, so international crises will affect us more.

The EU is petty. They can trade whenever they want but they don't want the UK to do well because all is not well in the EU, many populist groups have closed the gaps and people want out. One main reason, the euro. The single currency that spectacularly screws over most countries bound by it. When you try to leave then you get a dose of 'freedom' Greek style. It allows Germany to asset grab from.places like Italy same way France does rather well, and when the smaller nations complain, it's like 'oh it's the EU' like everyone should be grateful to be included even though inflation is rampant and it's a bad joke to be in, but PR keeps up the emperor's new clothing ruse while many are saying... but he's naked.

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2 minutes ago, OpenMindedSceptic said:

The EU is petty. They can trade whenever they want but they don't want the UK to do well because all is not well in the EU, many populist groups have closed the gaps and people want out. One main reason, the euro. The single currency that spectacularly screws over most countries bound by it. When you try to leave then you get a dose of 'freedom' Greek style. It allows Germany to asset grab from.places like Italy same way France does rather well, and when the smaller nations complain, it's like 'oh it's the EU' like everyone should be grateful to be included even though inflation is rampant and it's a bad joke to be in, but PR keeps up the emperor's new clothing ruse while many are saying... but he's naked.

We know what Germany is up to and hence why its Nord Steam 2 got holed lol.

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On 2/16/2024 at 4:28 PM, pellinore said:

But it strikes me that up till now some people in the UK were jubilant that Germany has seen a recession, and the UK hadn't; yet here we are, in the same boat. The truth is all of Europe has been struggling to restore growth after Covid, the Ukraine War, and now the Red Sea crisis. But only one Western European country has erected trade barriers, and that is us, so we will struggle more than most to regain lost ground. And don't forget we have been banking on favourable trading with the other side of the world rather than 20 miles away in our own continent, so international crises will affect us more.

"Britain's recession 'already over' amid private sector surge"

Annoyingly for you, Britain’s private sector grew at its fastest pace in nine months in February in a sign that the economy is already exiting recession. Must be Brexit. You can't have it both ways. 🤔

"only one Western European country has erected trade barriers, and that is us, so we will struggle more than most to regain lost ground." Well that prediction didn't age well did it. Ooops. 🤦

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/22/japan-market-ai-nikkei-lloyds-rolls-royce-wwp/

 

Edited by Destination Unknown
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