Part of the San Andreas fault may be gearing up for an earthquake

[Grim Reaper 6]

The Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault is sending mixed messages before a time of expected increased seismic risk. A section of the San Andreas fault where earthquakes occur regularly may give off a distinct signal before it trembles to life, new research finds. The signal hints at the opening and closing of cracks beneath the subsurface.

This section of faultline, known as Parkfield in Central California, shakes regularly about every 22 years. It last ruptured in 2004, so another earthquake may be imminent. The differences might mean the next quake won't happen right away, or they might mean that the epicenter of the quake will be different from 2004's epicenter, which was just southeast of the tiny town of Parkfield.

https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/earthquakes/part-of-the-san-andreas-fault-may-be-gearing-up-for-an-earthquake

Seismic attenuation and stress on the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield: are we critical yet?  https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2024.1349425/full

[docyabut2]

More earthquakes to happen in California again?  

[Guyver]

6 minutes ago, docyabut2 said:

More earthquakes to happen in California again?  

I hope not.  The San Andreas is the “Big one.”

[Piney]

5 minutes ago, docyabut2 said:

More earthquakes to happen in California again?  

It's something called a "strike-slip fault" earthquakes happen there all the time. 

[Grim Reaper 6]

36 minutes ago, Piney said:

It's something called a "strike-slip fault" earthquakes happen there all the time. 

Thanks Piney, that is exactly right so it is hard to gage if the next one will be the big one!!!!

[Grim Reaper 6]

49 minutes ago, docyabut2 said:

More earthquakes to happen in California again?  

Hopefully not, but theyu are sure right now!!

[docyabut2]

https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/yvo/news/what-normal-earthquake-activity-yellowstone

A long history of seismic monitoring in the Yellowstone region helps seismologists understand what is normal in terms of earthquake activity. And also what is not normal

Edited April 9 by docyabut2

[docyabut2]

Histogram showing the number of earthquakes per 3-month period (quarter) in the Yellowstone region during 1973–2023.  Red bars represent all earthquakes located in the area, and blue bars indicate swarm seismicity.

[Myles]

Not to sound harsh but I am at least happy this isn't the New Madrid fault.  

[Antigonos]

14 hours ago, Grim Reaper 6 said:

Thanks Piney, that is exactly right so it is hard to gage if the next one will be the big one!!!!

The big one’s overdue. It’s been building up for nearly 120 years.

[Myles]

3 hours ago, Antigonos said:

The big one’s overdue. It’s been building up for nearly 120 years.

What is overdue?   Has a huge earthquake occurred every 100 years in the past?

[Doc Socks Junior]

3 hours ago, Antigonos said:

The big one’s overdue. It’s been building up for nearly 120 years.

Overdue is not the best way to talk about EQs (or volcanic eruptions for that matter). Recurrence intervals are rarely that cyclic.

In addition, large EQs on New Madrid seem to recur at ~500 year timescale.

I do note, that as I'm looking into this, that there's at least one notable geophysicist who thinks New Madrid is less dangerous based on GPS data. I'll have to ponder his work for a bit.

[Doc Socks Junior]

27 minutes ago, Myles said:

What is overdue?   Has a huge earthquake occurred every 100 years in the past?

No, it's roughly 500 years between big quakes.

[Myles]

8 minutes ago, Doc Socks Junior said:

Overdue is not the best way to talk about EQs (or volcanic eruptions for that matter). Recurrence intervals are rarely that cyclic.

In addition, large EQs on New Madrid seem to recur at ~500 year timescale.

I do note, that as I'm looking into this, that there's at least one notable geophysicist who thinks New Madrid is less dangerous based on GPS data. I'll have to ponder his work for a bit.

I have read where, because of the soil, the New Madrid fault has been harder to study the past. 

[Myles]

8 minutes ago, Doc Socks Junior said:

No, it's roughly 500 years between big quakes.

While unpredictable, it is not "overdue" as someone said. 

[Doc Socks Junior]

2 minutes ago, Myles said:

While unpredictable, it is not "overdue" as someone said. 

You're right!

[Trelane]

20 hours ago, docyabut2 said:

https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/yvo/news/what-normal-earthquake-activity-yellowstone

A long history of seismic monitoring in the Yellowstone region helps seismologists understand what is normal in terms of earthquake activity. And also what is not normal

I could be wrong but I think those are caused by a different mechanism though. 

[Piney]

1 hour ago, Trelane said:

I could be wrong but I think those are caused by a different mechanism though. 

Yup, but she thinking of Edgar Cayce who predicted nation  wide earthquake swarms would hit us from 1950s to the 1990s. 

Because.....Atlantis. 🤫

 

[Antigonos]

3 hours ago, Doc Socks Junior said:

No, it's roughly 500 years between big quakes.

Correct me if I’m wrong Doc: I’d read somewhere that ever since the 1906 San Fran quake, scientists have been predicting another big one happening through the same cause, the transform plate boundary of the San Andreas fault.  The pressure building up between the North American and Pacific plates has been increasing for the last 120 years. Is the next one another 380 years away? I thought it was impossible to predict them, unless I’m a little behind on current technology and methods concerning seismology.

I should actually have said the next big one’s been building up for 120 years not that it’s overdue. My bad.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 10 by Antigonos

[Piney]

8 minutes ago, Antigonos said:

Correct me if I’m wrong Doc: I’d read somewhere that ever since the 1906 San Fran quake, scientists have been predicting another big one happening through the same cause, the transform plate boundary of the San Andreas fault.  The pressure building up between the North American and Pacific plates has been increasing for the last 120 years. Is the next one another 380 years away? I thought it was impossible to predict them, unless I’m a little behind on current technology and methods concerning seismology.

I should actually have said the next big one’s been building up for 120 years not that it’s overdue. My bad.

In a nutshell, California is pushing in and up.

[Doc Socks Junior]

27 minutes ago, Antigonos said:

Correct me if I’m wrong Doc: I’d read somewhere that ever since the 1906 San Fran quake, scientists have been predicting another big one happening through the same cause, the transform plate boundary of the San Andreas fault.  The pressure building up between the North American and Pacific plates has been increasing for the last 120 years. Is the next one another 380 years away? I thought it was impossible to predict them, unless I’m a little behind on current technology and methods concerning seismology.

I should actually have said the next big one’s been building up for 120 years not that it’s overdue. My bad.

No problem. It's a bit of a nitpick on my part, of course. It's who I am.

Oh are you talking about San Andreas? I thought New Madrid. Whoops.

Well, there was a sizable one in '89 at Loma Prieta, on the San Andreas system.

You are correct in that there is a high probability of another one on the San Andreas system. I think a 70% chance of a M 6.7 or greater on one of the San Andreas Bay area strands in the next 30 years. That's basically their prediction format. Probability lowers the larger magnitude considered.  Hayward strand might be most likely. That's where the big one before the two previous big ones hit.

[Doc Socks Junior]

21 minutes ago, Piney said:

In a nutshell, California is pushing in and up.

Like this!

[Piney]

19 minutes ago, Doc Socks Junior said:

Like this!

Which negates it falling into the ocean like all these fruitloops predicted. 

[Doc Socks Junior]

2 hours ago, Piney said:

Which negates it falling into the ocean like all these fruitloops predicted. 

I don't know, sir, look at the way some of those arrows are pointing!

[Piney]

43 minutes ago, Doc Socks Junior said:

I don't know, sir, look at the way some of those arrows are pointing!

Ok....There is some random movement headed towards the Aleutians and Siberia. But most of it is gonna smash into Alaska's butt.