US intel said to indicate Iran could strike ‘Israeli soil’ in next 24 to 48 hours

[Black Red Devil]

2 hours ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

Netanyahu has said that Israel will respond to Iran's attack, but will do so 'wisely and not from the gut.'

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/pm-said-to-assure-likud-ministers-israel-will-respond-to-iran-but-wisely-and-not-from-the-gut/

Israel is in a position to win back some Arab, anti-Iranian/Shia support if they show restraint in their response, despite loosing some of this support with their response in Gaza.  If they start bombing Iran's military infrastructures, then Iran will respond and the tit for tat could lead to a lot of civilian deaths in Iran, especially if and when the US military enters the scene (and you know they will) if Israel is attacked heavily and on multiple fronts. 

Israel should not respond in my opinion.  Regime change in Iran should happen naturally, internally, and the vibes are pretty positive it will happen sooner or later.  The Abraham Accords was breaking barriers for Israel with moderate Arab Govts.  Just my opinion but I'm pretty sure Iran and Putin had interests to ensure these Arab nations shifted the focus away from befriending Israel and kept them as the hated anti Islamic thorn in the Middle East.  Putin's intention was to divert western interests away from Ukraine.

[Black Red Devil]

20 hours ago, susieice said:

Well, Iran can tell it's people that the attack was successful and they consider the retaliation over. Then when Israel attacks they can use that again. People were dancing in the streets in Tehran but I'm sure some Iranians know the truth. 

The screen shots were limited to a bunch of buffoons dancing for the cameras.  The regime still has a lot of Islamic fundamentalist support but there is also a large amount of Iranians that want change.  Taking polls with a pinch of salt, the best evidence was the amount of protesters across the nation, men and women, shown supporting regime change a year or so ago and the amount of people speaking out, something unheard of in the past.

[Black Red Devil]

4 hours ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

I don't know much about this senator, but omg the way in which he described Iran and its proxies lol. He is so spot on.

Kennedy on support of Israel: ‘If we turn the other cheek to them, we’re going to get it in the neck’

Republican Sen. John Kennedy (La.) on Sunday pushed for the U.S. to give its full support to Israel against Iran, arguing Tehran’s weekend missile attack underscores the threat the country poses to the Middle East.

“We need to stand with Israel. It’s very clear. We’re not at war with Hamas, or Hezbollah or Yemen. Those are all surrogates for Iran. Those are…they’re prostitutes, the pimp is Iran. Israel is at war with Iran. Iran hates Americans. Iran hates Jews, Iran wants to kill Americans and Jews. And if we turn the other cheek to them, we’re going to get it in the neck,” Kennedy said during an interview on “Fox News Sunday.”

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4593248-rep-kennedy-on-support-of-israel-if-we-turn-the-other-cheek-to-them-were-going-to-get-it-in-the-neck/

This was the same guy that wanted to go to war against the cartels in Mexico, obviously without approval from the corrupt Mexican Govt.  In hindsight not a bad idea, but unfortunately barging into someone elses territory without their approval isn't very diplomatic and against international law above all.

[Kittens Are Jerks]

1 hour ago, Black Red Devil said:

Israel is in a position to win back some Arab, anti-Iranian/Shia support if they show restraint in their response, despite loosing some of this support with their response in Gaza.  If they start bombing Iran's military infrastructures, then Iran will respond and the tit for tat could lead to a lot of civilian deaths in Iran, especially if and when the US military enters the scene (and you know they will) if Israel is attacked heavily and on multiple fronts. 

I agree. Israel has more to lose than gain with a retaliatory strike at this time. They should, as many of their allies have suggested, take the win and call it a day. Besides, they've already got their hands full on two main fronts (Gaza and Lebanon), and secondary fronts (Judea and Samaria, the Houthis and the Iranian militias in Syria). Now is not the time to add to an already full plate.

At the same time, however, I can understand why Israel wants to strike back. Iran's attack went way above a proportional response.

1 hour ago, Black Red Devil said:

Israel should not respond in my opinion.  Regime change in Iran should happen naturally, internally, and the vibes are pretty positive it will happen sooner or later.  The Abraham Accords was breaking barriers for Israel with moderate Arab Govts.

Yes it does seem that Iran is taking baby steps towards a change in regime. It's a good sign that the current movement is calling for the end of the clerical establishment and the creation of a secular democracy, but mass protests are not sufficient. Iranians need international support, and the West (the US in particular) needs to come up with more effective and consistent strategies, especially now that Iran has become increasingly cocky showing no qualms about destabilizing an already unstable region.

1 hour ago, Black Red Devil said:

Just my opinion but I'm pretty sure Iran and Putin had interests to ensure these Arab nations shifted the focus away from befriending Israel and kept them as the hated anti Islamic thorn in the Middle East.  Putin's intention was to divert western interests away from Ukraine.

None of that wouldn't surprise me.

[Kittens Are Jerks]

1 hour ago, Black Red Devil said:

This was the same guy that wanted to go to war against the cartels in Mexico, obviously without approval from the corrupt Mexican Govt.  In hindsight not a bad idea, but unfortunately barging into someone elses territory without their approval isn't very diplomatic and against international law above all.

Ya think? lol He sounds like a real character.

[+susieice]

RFK Jr claims Trump's people approached him to be his Vice President. 

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Says He Was Approached to Be Trump's VP (msn.com)

Tulsi Gabbard says she declined a VP invitation from Kennedy.

Tulsi Gabbard reportedly declined VP offer from RFK Jr. (msn.com)

[Kittens Are Jerks]

As Israel mulls revenge, preserving US-led cooperation also seen as dealing blow to Iran

Tehran was forced into responding, but Jerusalem could stop short of striking back and still come out on top by making sure its alliances remain intact while Iran’s fall apart

https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-israel-mulls-revenge-preserving-us-led-cooperation-also-seen-as-dealing-blow-to-iran/

[+and-then]

If Israel isn't going to strike Iranian soil after this then there will never be a "justified" chance to strike them.  It does give Bibi the leverage to push Biden out of the way and proceed against Rafah, though.

[Black Red Devil]

2 hours ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

Yes it does seem that Iran is taking baby steps towards a change in regime. It's a good sign that the current movement is calling for the end of the clerical establishment and the creation of a secular democracy, but mass protests are not sufficient. Iranians need international support, and the West (the US in particular) needs to come up with more effective and consistent strategies, especially now that Iran has become increasingly cocky showing no qualms about destabilizing an already unstable region.

 

Agree.  But to get full international support the US needs the UN to be given proof that Iran is sponsoring terrorism.  I believe the UNSC has only raised Resolutions against the regime for their Uranium enrichment program and the UNHRC for their discrmination against women and their death penalty.  In relation to terrorism Iran has actually claimed to be victims of terrorism (link) in front of a UN delegation committee back in 2014 and don't associate people's struggle against occupation as terrorism::

Iran opposes any attempt to equate the legitimate struggle of peoples under
colonial or alien domination and foreign occupation for self-determination and national
liberation with terrorism.

I don't think their stance has changed in 10 years so getting full international support with sanctions is going to be hard.  Not sure what other strategies can be adopted to clip this regimes wings.

 

[+DieChecker]

Biden last Friday.... "Iran... Don't.".

Iran... "Or what?" Sends 300 rockets/drones/missiles.

Biden... "Oh, uh... Never mind! Forget i said anything.".

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-silent-pressed-iranian-strike-israel-now

Quote

"President Biden, you told Iran, ‘Don't,’ and they did it anyway, so what now?" the journalist asked.

Quote

President Biden left a question about Iran's recent attacks against Israel unanswered at a press conference on Monday.

He's being framed as being weak on Iran. Will threaten, but not carry through.

Edited April 16, 2024 by DieChecker

[Alchopwn]

15 hours ago, CrimsonKing said:

Same reason South Park can show a comical Jesus,but censors wouldn't allow them to do the opposite...

Sensitive folk they are.

Maybe we don't bomb them enough?  I think we should bomb them more.

[psyche101]

1 hour ago, DieChecker said:

Biden last Friday.... "Iran... Don't.".

Iran... "Or what?" Sends 300 rockets/drones/missiles.

Biden... "Oh, uh... Never mind! Forget i said anything.".

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-silent-pressed-iranian-strike-israel-now

He's being framed as being weak on Iran. Will threaten, but not carry through.

Ohhhh pushy pushy!!!!

 

Give him time to get there. It's not across the road you know 

Someone booked themselves in for a shiner!!! I wouldn't want to be Netenyahoo right now!!!

 

 

 

Ohhhh he's in for a lesson!!!!! You just watch!

[Kittens Are Jerks]

House plans raft of Iran sanctions votes after attack on Israel

The House on Sunday teed up more than a dozen new votes for this week on bills sanctioning Iran and its proxies in retaliation for a wide-ranging drone attack on Israel.

Why it matters: The switch-up from Republicans' plan to vote on several appliance-related "messaging" bills comes as lawmakers in both parties are pressing President Biden take a hard line against Iran.

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/15/house-republicans-iran-sanctions-israel

[Kittens Are Jerks]

Military releases footage of Israeli Air Force control room amid Iranian attack

The military releases footage from the Israeli Air Force’s control room at the IDF’s underground headquarters, as the first interceptions of the Iranian missiles and drones were carried out early Sunday. According to the IDF, Iran’s attack comprised 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles — 99% of which were intercepted by air defenses.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/military-releases-footage-of-israeli-air-force-control-room-amid-iranian-attack/

Too bad there's no sound to the footage. I would've loved to know what they were all saying.

[Kittens Are Jerks]

Iran is now charging journalists and newspapers for criticizing its attack on Israel, accusing them of things like 'disrupting societal psychological security', and ‘disrupting the economic stability of the nation’. One journalist called attack “flashy, inadequate, and ineffective” and challenged authorities who claimed the strikes were “more successful than we anticipated”. Another wrote: “Contrary to popular belief, I believe that Israel’s attack was fundamentally a reaction and did not necessitate a response from Iran.” Guess the truth is hard for the regime to take.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/04/15/iran-journalists-newspapers-charged-criticise-attack-israel/

[DarkHunter]

Seems Israel has decided on how to respond to Iran, the cabinet has unanimously decided that a strike on a sensitive area of Iran needs to be done with various ministers urging that it needs to be done as soon as possible.

My guess is by the end of the week something in Iran will be bombed by Israel, I am also guessing it will be close to or inside of Tehran.  Probably be something that will have few to no casualties.

[Kittens Are Jerks]

29 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Seems Israel has decided on how to respond to Iran, the cabinet has unanimously decided that a strike on a sensitive area of Iran needs to be done with various ministers urging that it needs to be done as soon as possible.

My guess is by the end of the week something in Iran will be bombed by Israel, I am also guessing it will be close to or inside of Tehran.  Probably be something that will have few to no casualties.

The Israeli war cabinet has not confirmed whether Israel's strike will be within Iran or outside it. All they've said is that it will be one or the other. The US seems to believe that Israel will choose to target Iran's proxies.

Edited April 16, 2024 by Kittens Are Jerks
Minor addition.

[Kittens Are Jerks]

Poll: 74% of Israelis oppose counterstrike on Iran if it harms security alliances

Nearly three-quarters of the Israeli public oppose a retaliatory strike on Iran for its massive missile attack on the country if such action would harm Israel’s security alliance with its allies, according to a poll published Tuesday.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-74-of-israelis-oppose-counterstrike-on-iran-if-it-harms-security-alliances/

[+and-then]

On 4/13/2024 at 6:49 PM, Unusual Tournament said:

after all, they did attack the Iranian embassy in Syria.

There is no proof that the building was a diplomatic facility.  BUT, even if it was, it lost its protections for the same reason the hospitals, schools, and mosques did in Gaza.  Protected facilities CANNOT be used to wage war or even to support a war's aims.  Those who were killed were IRGC leaders and staff officers.  They had no business in a diplomatic facility.

[+and-then]

On 4/14/2024 at 12:09 PM, Kittens Are Jerks said:

I'm by no means an expert, but I don't think a regional war or another Iraq-type situation is the only solution. Besides, the US has indicated they want to pull their forces from the Middle East and recommit them to Europe and the Indo-Pacific. They don't want to get involved in a long, drawn out conflict in the Middle East, especially when there are other ways to destabilize a regime.

The main problem with that track is that in the neighborhood, it would be seen as weakness and weakness is ALWAYS punished, rapidly.

[Kittens Are Jerks]

28 minutes ago, and-then said:

The main problem with that track is that in the neighborhood, it would be seen as weakness and weakness is ALWAYS punished, rapidly.

The real problem is Iran. Everyone knows it. A full scale conflict with Iran will get everyone in the neighbourhood involved, and things might not go the way Israel wants them to. If Israel wasn't so concerned with fostering and maintaining good relations with the rest of its neighbours, it would have struck back at Iran that very same night. But I understand and agree with your point.

[Kittens Are Jerks]

Oooh, some interesting developments in Iran:

‘Hit them Israel’: Graffiti painted on Iranian buildings voices support for Jerusalem

Amid the unprecedented direct conflict between Israel and Iran, Hebrew media has reported on some graffiti that has appeared within the Islamic Republic in recent days, following its largescale attack on Israel, which voices support for the Jewish state.

One declares: “Hit them, Israel. Iranians are behind you.”

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hit-them-israel-graffiti-painted-on-iranian-buildings-voices-support-for-jerusalem/

[Kittens Are Jerks]

LOL at this graffiti (in Iran) encouraging Israel to bomb Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s home.

Five bucks says there isn't one Israeli who wouldn't want to do it.

[Setton]

14 hours ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

 Israel's strike will be within Iran or outside it. All they've said is that it will be one or the other. The

Well that narrows it down 😆

7 hours ago, and-then said:

There is no proof that the building was a diplomatic facility.  BUT, even if it was, it lost its protections for the same reason the hospitals, schools, and mosques did in Gaza.  Protected facilities CANNOT be used to wage war or even to support a war's aims.  Those who were killed were IRGC leaders and staff officers.  They had no business in a diplomatic facility.

Military officers go in and out of diplomatic buildings all the time. It's what they are doing there that is important.

They would have to be using it to pursue military aims for it to lose the protection. And even then it would have to be a significant threat to justify setting those protections aside (something you like to forget - one mortar fired from a hospital would not justify razing the building). 

In this case, given their MO, the IRGC probably were using it for such purposes, so it wouldn't be protected.

The question then becomes whether Israel was responding to a real and immediate threat from those individual officers. Otherwise conducting any military action inside a sovereign state (Syria) without their permission is against international law.

It's the same reason the US assassination of Soleimani was controversial - the US had no permission from Iraq and has never shared the evidence of an immediate threat.

Whereas the strikes killing any number of ISIS leaders are not controversial - because the US had permission from Iraq.

[Kittens Are Jerks]

A top ex-general’s radical strategy for tackling Iran, saving the hostages, calming the north

Giora Eiland, a former national security adviser and ex-IDF operations chief, has been bitterly critical of Israel’s response to October 7; here he sets out an alternative approach.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-top-ex-generals-radical-strategy-for-tackling-iran-saving-hostages-calming-the-north/

@and-then This article is a long read, but you might find it interesting. It touches on some points you've made, specifically whether Israel should hold its fire, and risk a perception of weakness, or whether it should strike back and risk a regional war. It also examines options in between.