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US intel said to indicate Iran could strike ‘Israeli soil’ in next 24 to 48 hours


Kittens Are Jerks

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1 minute ago, Setton said:

Well that narrows it down 😆

I know, right? lol

2 minutes ago, Setton said:

The question then becomes whether Israel was responding to a real and immediate threat from those individual officers. Otherwise conducting any military action inside a sovereign state (Syria) without their permission is against international law.

Without evidence from Israel, it's difficult to know for certain whether its attack on Iran's embassy compound met the imminent threat criteria necessary to justify an act of preemptive self-defence.

According to Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the target struck was a “military building of Quds forces” — a unit of the IRGC responsible for foreign operations. He stated, that according to Israeli intelligence, "this is no consulate and this is no embassy. This is a military building of Quds forces disguised as a civilian building in Damascus.” Other military spokes people stated that those killed in the attack were meeting to discuss the war in Gaza. That's pretty much all we've been told.

I don't have time to summarize the following article, but it's a worthwhile read. The gist of it is that Israel can likely argue that its actions did not violate international law’s protections for diplomatic missions, and it explains why. There's another article I read that supports Rear Adm. Hargari's description of the Iranian embassy, but will have to search for it. I'll post it if I can find it again.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/02/world/europe/interpreter-israel-syria-embassy.html

The NYT article should not be behind a paywall. If it is, let me know, and I'll summarize the key points.

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On 4/16/2024 at 2:24 AM, psyche101 said:

Ohhhh pushy pushy!!!!

 

Give him time to get there. It's not across the road you know 

Someone booked themselves in for a shiner!!! I wouldn't want to be Netenyahoo right now!!!

 

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSOPxbSwwZTiRG5h0Ww7wx

 

 

Ohhhh he's in for a lesson!!!!! You just watch!

He could add it to his collection of stories...

"Netenyahoo was bad man. He wanted to take over the swimming pool. And I was the life guard. And I said, "C'mon Man! Get on the Amtrak Express. Come over here and feel the hair on my legs.". And we were best friends after that..."

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Former IAF defense chief: Iran is a ‘superpower’ in missiles and drones — but not defense

Experts say Israel would have little trouble hitting targets inside Iran should it decide to retaliate directly for the unprecedented drone and missile salvoes of Saturday night, citing Tehran’s obsolete air force and indigenous air defense systems based on aging Russian models.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/former-iaf-defense-chief-iran-is-a-superpower-in-missiles-and-drones-but-not-defense/

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Some news highlights:

  • Israeli documents obtained by NYT revealed that the assassination of a top Iranian general in Damascus had been planned for two months.
  • An Egyptian source told Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that the U.S. agreed to the Israeli plan for a military operation in Rafah in exchange for a limited response against Iran.
  • Three Israeli sources also told ABC News that Israel prepared for and then aborted retaliatory strikes on Iran on at least two nights this week. Israel is unlikely to carry out a strike on Iran until after Passover, a senior U.S. official told ABC News.
  • Foreign influence operations and psychological warfare efforts against Israelis have escalated, and agents, likely Iranian, have started making personal threats against public figures, retired defense officials, and journalists. There have been cases of packages or letters being sent to home addresses, threatening phone calls and other forms of harassment, as well as surveillance efforts.

Source: https://www.haaretz.com/

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Iran warns it may review its ‘nuclear doctrine,’ threatens to hit Israeli nuclear sites

Iran could review its “nuclear doctrine” following Israeli threats to strike the country, a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander said on Thursday, as the world braces for an Israeli response to Tehran’s unprecedented April 13 drone and missile attack on it.

Tehran has always insisted its nuclear program was strictly for peaceful purposes, a claim Israel and much of the Western world doubt.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-warns-it-may-review-its-nuclear-doctrine-threatens-to-hit-israeli-nuclear-sites/

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Iran is denying that anything was bombed in Iran claiming everything was intercepted.

Nothing is really making it online but these seem to be from the bombing.

If that is from Iran, which I'm not completely sure yet, it seems a power substation was hit given the blue flash.

That is claimed to be a fire from the bombing.

It seems Israel targeted stuff near cities or nuclear facilities without hitting the cities or nuclear facilities directly.  The extent of the damage should become clear over the next 24 to 48 hours.

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8 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Iran is denying that anything was bombed in Iran claiming everything was intercepted.

Nothing is really making it online but these seem to be from the bombing.

If that is from Iran, which I'm not completely sure yet, it seems a power substation was hit given the blue flash.

That is claimed to be a fire from the bombing.

It seems Israel targeted stuff near cities or nuclear facilities without hitting the cities or nuclear facilities directly.  The extent of the damage should become clear over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Hopefully this was arranged with DC so that they will now back the hell off and allow the IDF to finish taking out the trash in Rafah.  I'm not sure how Iran plausibly denies Israel struck them.  They went out of their way to promise a massive response if Israel had the "slightest invasion".  Air strikes don't qualify as an "invasion".

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6 minutes ago, and-then said:

Hopefully this was arranged with DC so that they will now back the hell off and allow the IDF to finish taking out the trash in Rafah.  I'm not sure how Iran plausibly denies Israel struck them.  They went out of their way to promise a massive response if Israel had the "slightest invasion".  Air strikes don't qualify as an "invasion".

Israel gave the US the heads up telling them they would strike within 24-48 hours.

Iran has been saying all week that they will retaliate even to the 'tiniest' Israeli strike. They're response after this will be interesting.

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Iranian air defenses have shot down three drones, allegedly launched by Israel, according to Iran’s space agency. “They said that we fired 500 suicide drones and missiles… now they respond with three of these quadcopter, all of which were shut down,” Iran’s space agency spokesman Hossein Dalirian writes on X.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iranian-official-says-military-shot-down-3-israeli-drones/

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11 minutes ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

Iranian air defenses have shot down three drones, allegedly launched by Israel, according to Iran’s space agency. “They said that we fired 500 suicide drones and missiles… now they respond with three of these quadcopter, all of which were shut down,” Iran’s space agency spokesman Hossein Dalirian writes on X.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/iranian-official-says-military-shot-down-3-israeli-drones/

Somehow, I doubt Israel would have bothered to embarrass themselves with such a puny strike.

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Posted (edited)

CNN is saying the attack was small. None of the targets involved anything nuclear. They said Biden was warned an attack was coming. The US didn't "green light" the attack. It doesn't sound like US officials are happy about this.

Live updates: Israel attacks Iran, explosions in Isfahan, war in Gaza (cnn.com)

Edited by susieice
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2 minutes ago, susieice said:

CNN is saying the attack was small. None of the targets involved anything nuclear.

Live updates: Israel attacks Iran, explosions in Isfahan, war in Gaza (cnn.com)

Apparently they only attacked military bases and not any of Irans nuclear infrastructure. But it appears that Irans Air Defense was unable to stop most of the incoming munitions and targets on the ground did receive damage.

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5 minutes ago, Grim Reaper 6 said:

Apparently they only attacked military bases and not any of Irans nuclear infrastructure. But it appears that Irans Air Defense was unable to stop most of the incoming munitions and targets on the ground did receive damage.

"Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told CNN that if Israel takes any further military action against Iran, its response would be “immediate and at a maximum level.” He added: “If the Israeli regime commits the grave error once again our response will be decisive, definitive and regretful for them.”

Well, I guess we'll see about that.

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I am glad to see that they learned a lesson with regard to keeping their civilian air traffic safe.

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1 minute ago, and-then said:

"Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told CNN that if Israel takes any further military action against Iran, its response would be “immediate and at a maximum level.” He added: “If the Israeli regime commits the grave error once again our response will be decisive, definitive and regretful for them.”

Well, I guess we'll see about that.

Yes we will see, but hopefully Iran lets it pass. The last thing I want to see is the US pulled into the conflict.

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Posted (edited)

Earlier today the US and the UK put new sanctions against Iran.

US and UK issue new sanctions on Iran in response to Tehran's weekend attack on Israel - ABC News (go.com)

The sanctions are meant to hold Iran accountable for its weekend attack and to deter further such activity. But the practical impact is likely to be limited because many of the targeted companies already were subject to U.S. sanctions and the individuals singled out for new sanctions are unlikely to have assets in U.S. jurisdictions.

Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control targeted 16 people and two entities in Iran that produce engines that power the drones used in the April 13 attack on Israel. OFAC also sanctioned five firms involved in steel production and three subsidiaries of Iranian automaker Bahman Group — which is accused of materially supporting Iran's military and other sanctioned groups. A representative from Bahman was not immediately available for comment.

Additionally, the U.K. targeted several Iranian military branches and individuals involved in Iran’s drone and ballistic missile industries.

Edited by susieice
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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Grim Reaper 6 said:

Apparently they only attacked military bases and not any of Irans nuclear infrastructure. But it appears that Irans Air Defense was unable to stop most of the incoming munitions and targets on the ground did receive damage.

This says Iran fired air defense batteries that were heard but Iran really isn't saying anything at the moment.

Iran fires air defense batteries in provinces as sound of explosions heard near Isfahan (msn.com)

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Iran fired air defense batteries early Friday morning after reports of explosions near the city of Isfahan, the state-run IRNA news agency reported.

IRNA said the defenses fired across several provinces. It did not elaborate on what caused the batteries to fire, though people across the area reported hearing the sounds.

The semiofficial Fars and Tasnim news agencies reported the sound of blasts, without giving a cause. State television acknowledged “loud noise” in the area.

Edited by susieice
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44 minutes ago, and-then said:

Somehow, I doubt Israel would have bothered to embarrass themselves with such a puny strike.

It's been suggested that Israel deliberately used drones rather than missiles or air strikes, and that this, coupled with Israel's lack of official announcement will give Iran the strategic deniability needed to get out of its bellicose threats to attack Israel a second time. Iran is downplaying the incident and Israel is remaining silent. It appears that both sides want to step back from the brink of war.

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