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US intel said to indicate Iran could strike ‘Israeli soil’ in next 24 to 48 hours


Kittens Are Jerks

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44 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Well this impending retaliation from Israel has been telegraphed and as such let’s assume Russian and Chinese technicians will be directing air defence and looking for an elusive target to use as propaganda. Russian and Chinese radars are very sophisticated and bet passive detection means will also play a big part. 
 

As for where the Israeli airforce could be refueling and landing in, well Azerbaijan is the favourite and considering the double game Turkey has been playing in the Gaza conflict it’s safe to assume the Turks might possibly look the other way. 
 

I doubt Israel can inflict much damage on Iran. They can go nuclear and so can Iran. But I think (and might be wrong) Israel is trying very hard to drag America into this conflict as a way to destroy what it can only otherwise inflict minor damage on. 

The Russian radar that was so sophisticated that Russia wasn't able to intercept essentially a cesna packed full of explosives that targeted their oil refinery.  Even then Russia is too occupied with Ukraine to get involved with Iran.  As for China since there isn't any significant Chinese weapon systems in Iran, specifically air defense systems, Chinese technicians would be of no real value.  While there are some forms of radar that can detect stealth and while Russia and China have them, along with America/NATO, those radar systems are not capable of getting or maintaining a weapon lock.  Being able to say something is in a general direction isn't particularly useful.

Neither Iraq or Syria are actually capable of defending their airspace so Israel can rather trivially mid air refuel in either.

Israel doesn't need to do extensive damage to Iran, taking out the Ayatollah and the top of the religious class is well within what Israel is capable of and would leave the Iranian government largely decapitated.  The IRGC would be more challenging but still within the realm of possibility.  If the religious leadership and IRGC leadership get taken out there is a decent chance of a civil war between the democratic elements, the IRGC, and the religious class/those that support the theocratic government.  

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2 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

The Russian radar that was so sophisticated that Russia wasn't able to intercept essentially a cesna packed full of explosives that targeted their oil refinery.  Even then Russia is too occupied with Ukraine to get involved with Iran.  As for China since there isn't any significant Chinese weapon systems in Iran, specifically air defense systems, Chinese technicians would be of no real value.  While there are some forms of radar that can detect stealth and while Russia and China have them, along with America/NATO, those radar systems are not capable of getting or maintaining a weapon lock.  Being able to say something is in a general direction isn't particularly useful.

Neither Iraq or Syria are actually capable of defending their airspace so Israel can rather trivially mid air refuel in either.

Israel doesn't need to do extensive damage to Iran, taking out the Ayatollah and the top of the religious class is well within what Israel is capable of and would leave the Iranian government largely decapitated.  The IRGC would be more challenging but still within the realm of possibility.  If the religious leadership and IRGC leadership get taken out there is a decent chance of a civil war between the democratic elements, the IRGC, and the religious class/those that support the theocratic government.  

Yeah okay, I’m sure the mullahs are planning an open air bbq to make it easier on Israel. 
 

But tell me what targets Israel will be looking to attack, because I can’t imagine Iran, after being in the crosshairs of America for 45 years, would make it that easy for anyone to bomb them into new regime change and defeat. The Iran - Iraq war comes to mind 

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2 hours ago, Michelle said:

The first part Kittens Are Jerks already schooled me on. It's difficult trying to keep up with everything going on in the world.

I'm not talking about Biden. "We came, we saw, he died. cackle" We would have been at war with Russia if Hillary had won. Democrats actually had nice things to say when Trump bombed Iran. I think that is the only thing they ever praised him for.

I commended Trump at the time for not getting us into a war.

I was born during Korea, elementary school was hiding under desks during the cold war.  Then in junior high and high school it was Vietnam. Brush fire wars through college, Kuwait, Iraq. and then Afghanistan. Not to mention Syria, ISIS, and now Ukraine and Israel.

I have seen a shift in voter opinion, and a shift of people in power a little more slowly. Dick Cheney and the neocons are gone.. The military has also changed, for the better I think.   I got to distrust the government and oppose all wars. 

Now, as I look around, I find out everybody with any sort of power is trying to influence us. So I have to look pretty hard to find the kernels of truth, and sometimes I'm wrong and it takes a while to find enough facts to get the picture.

Fighting over religion, political structure. or territory seems wasteful.  It is always the ordinary citizens who suffer, not the leaders. Fighting to stay free or fighting to help an ally stay free probably does some good, if one believes self determination is a desired state.

 

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21 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Yeah okay, I’m sure the mullahs are planning an open air bbq to make it easier on Israel. 
 

But tell me what targets Israel will be looking to attack, because I can’t imagine Iran, after being in the crosshairs of America for 45 years, would make it that easy for anyone to bomb them into new regime change and defeat. The Iran - Iraq war comes to mind 

The mullahs got to keep up appearances and can't be viewed as afraid or weak, that will limit their ability to stay safe.

Hitting Kharg island would destroy Iran's economy.  Military head quarters, government buildings, nuclear facilities, key infrastructure like power plants, sub stations, pipelines, bridges, ect would all be key targets.  Hitting Kharg island would be insanely easy and Israel could do it with their submarine force.  

The main thing keeping Iran safe from America is that America doesn't want to deal with the occupation of Iran or dealing with all of Iran's proxies attacking multiple areas simultaneously, if Israel decides to hit Iran neither of those will be an issue holding back Israel.  

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7 hours ago, Michelle said:

If he had Trump haters would call him a warmonger. The Democrats are now the party of war though.

Your hero was talking about attacking Iran until the last few days of Presidency. He even asked questions about the use of nuclear weapons against Iran, so please gets your facts straight!!!!:rolleyes:

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43 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

I commended Trump at the time for not getting us into a war.

I was born during Korea, elementary school was hiding under desks during the cold war.  Then in junior high and high school it was Vietnam. Brush fire wars through college, Kuwait, Iraq. and then Afghanistan. Not to mention Syria, ISIS, and now Ukraine and Israel.

I have seen a shift in voter opinion, and a shift of people in power a little more slowly. Dick Cheney and the neocons are gone.. The military has also changed, for the better I think.   I got to distrust the government and oppose all wars. 

Now, as I look around, I find out everybody with any sort of power is trying to influence us. So I have to look pretty hard to find the kernels of truth, and sometimes I'm wrong and it takes a while to find enough facts to get the picture.

Fighting over religion, political structure. or territory seems wasteful.  It is always the ordinary citizens who suffer, not the leaders. Fighting to stay free or fighting to help an ally stay free probably does some good, if one believes self determination is a desired state.

 

Great Tate however, I expect it has fallen upon deaf ears!!!:tu:

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4 hours ago, Michelle said:

The first part Kittens Are Jerks already schooled me on. It's difficult trying to keep up with everything going on in the world.

I'm not talking about Biden. "We came, we saw, he died. cackle" We would have been at war with Russia if Hillary had won. Democrats actually had nice things to say when Trump bombed Iran. I think that is the only thing they ever praised him for.

We never bombed Iran, President Trump ordered a drone strike on a Iranian general Qasem Soleimani. But that occurred in Baghdad not in Iran, not trying to give you a hard time only trying to make sure the right information is added so no one is confused!!:yes:

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8 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

Seems like they kind of backed themselves into a corner by saying they will respond, wonder if they can weasel their way out?

I agree Tate, and that is a very dangerous place for them to be. I don't believe they plan to weasel out of an attack, I do believe however, that Iran will not lead an attack. I believe they will use one of their proxy forces to attack Israel, like Hezbollah. Now we must wait and see hopefully nothing happens, because it could change the entire conflict immediately.

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1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

The mullahs got to keep up appearances and can't be viewed as afraid or weak, that will limit their ability to stay safe.

Hitting Kharg island would destroy Iran's economy.  Military head quarters, government buildings, nuclear facilities, key infrastructure like power plants, sub stations, pipelines, bridges, ect would all be key targets.  Hitting Kharg island would be insanely easy and Israel could do it with their submarine force.  

The main thing keeping Iran safe from America is that America doesn't want to deal with the occupation of Iran or dealing with all of Iran's proxies attacking multiple areas simultaneously, if Israel decides to hit Iran neither of those will be an issue holding back Israel.  

Yes I agree with Israel using it’s submarines to launch cruise missiles to soften air defences other than that it’s gonna be really hard to Israel to assert dominance in any war

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10 hours ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

Iran is retaliating against Israel's attack on its embassy in Damascus (not for an attack on Iranian soil).

Israel has carried out numerous airstrikes in Syria in the past to disrupt the flow of its weapons. It now seems to be going after more 'high value' targets (such as Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and the six other officers who were with him at the embassy), to break the link between the command in Iran and their affiliates in Syria.

An embassy is sovereign territory. That is precisely the point.

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Indian authorities yesterday had advised Indian citizens not to travel to Iran and Israel. I don't think Iran will attack Israel, but there is a possibility of it using tactical ballistic missiles like the Spud missiles Iraq launched against Israel back then. 

Iran has capabilities for creating short and medium range ballistic missiles. In 2022, U.S. Central Command estimated that Iran had over 3,000 ballistic missiles in its arsenal. 

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38 minutes ago, Ajay0 said:

Indian authorities yesterday had advised Indian citizens not to travel to Iran and Israel. I don't think Iran will attack Israel, but there is a possibility of it using tactical ballistic missiles like the Spud missiles Iraq launched against Israel back then. 

Iran has capabilities for creating short and medium range ballistic missiles. In 2022, U.S. Central Command estimated that Iran had over 3,000 ballistic missiles in its arsenal. 

Good points. It has been built up too much to just happen now. 

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So the Hezbollah attack wasnt the attack being expected?

Had lots of rockets and drones.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/hezbollah-launches-explosive-laden-drones-dozens-of-rockets-at-northern-israel/

Quote

The military said around 40 rockets were launched, some of which were intercepted, while others impacted open areas or fell short in Lebanon.

There were no reports of injuries in the attack.

The IDF also said air defenses shot down two explosive-laden drones launched by Hezbollah at northern Israel.

That is underwhelming.

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Joe says...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68796363

Quote

US President Joe Biden says he expects Iran to attack Israel "sooner than later", as fears grow of Iranian retaliation over an air strike that killed top commanders early this month.

Quote

"We are devoted to the defence of Israel. We will support Israel," Mr Biden said. "We will help defend Israel and Iran will not succeed."

Quote

The mounting tensions have led countries including the US, UK, India and Australia to warn against travel to Israel. Germany called on its citizens to leave Iran.

The US state department also barred diplomatic staff and their families in Israel from travelling outside the cities of Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Beersheba.

Not at war yet....

 

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1 hour ago, Setton said:

An embassy is sovereign territory. That is precisely the point.

Contrary to myth, embassies are not sovereign territories. They are, however, afforded special protections from attack or other interference by the host country under international law. Diplomats, for example, get immunity from prosecution and embassy buildings are often viewed as a sanctuary for their nation’s citizens. They cannot be entered by the host country's police without the permission of diplomatic staff.

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10 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

So the Hezbollah attack wasnt the attack being expected?

Had lots of rockets and drones.

No that was pretty much just another day in the life of Israel. Hezbollah has been carrying out daily rocket, missile and drone attacks on northern Israel amid the war in Gaza. Even at this very minute, sirens warning of suspected incoming drones are sounding in multiple towns close to the northern border.

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8 hours ago, Michelle said:

The first part Kittens Are Jerks already schooled me on. It's difficult trying to keep up with everything going on in the world.

I'm not talking about Biden. "We came, we saw, he died. cackle" We would have been at war with Russia if Hillary had won. Democrats actually had nice things to say when Trump bombed Iran. I think that is the only thing they ever praised him for.

It is indeed difficult to keep up with everything going on in the world, especially in the chaotic Middle East.

You may have been thinking about the US defensive strikes on sites in Iraq and Syria. Although Trump never bombed Iran directly, he did threaten to hit 52 Iranian sites “very hard” if Iran ever attacked Americans or any of its assets.

The following is a timeline of key US-Iran events during the Trump administration:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/6/29/iran-and-us-president-donald-trump-a-timeline-of-key-events

I found it hilarious that Iran asked Interpol to help it arrest Trump. As if. lol

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I doubt this is the start of anything as Iran has a history of ship seizures and attacks, but will mention it anyway.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has seized an Israeli-linked ship near Strait of Hormuz. The vessel involved is the Portuguese-flagged MSC Aries, a container ship associated with London-based Zodiac Maritime (which is part of Israeli billionaire Eyal Ofer’s Zodiac Group).

Iran’s Tasnim news agency has confirmed that the seizure was carried out by the IRGC Navy.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-revolutionary-guard-boards-israeli-linked-ship-near-strait-of-hormuz-reports/

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IDF warns Iran ‘will bear the consequences for choosing to escalate situation any further’

In an English-language video statement, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari warns Iran that it “will bear the consequences for choosing to escalate the situation any further.”

The release of the video comes after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy seized an Israel-linked container ship near the Strait of Hormuz. Hagari does not mention the incident, indicating it was perhaps filmed before, but says “Iran funds, trains and arms terror proxies across the Middle East and beyond.”

“Iran-backed Hamas started this war on October 7th; Iran-backed Hezbollah expanded this war on October 8th; and since then, Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, and Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, have expanded this into a global conflict,” he says.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-warns-iran-will-bear-the-consequences-for-choosing-to-escalate-situation-any-further/

 

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I smell politics.       I won’t explain why….  THINK about it.

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Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has announced that the US and other allies have provided Israel with “new capabilities” to defend against a potential Iranian attack, as well as respond to it.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/gallant-us-allies-have-provided-israel-with-new-capabilities-to-defend-against-iran-attack/

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Posted (edited)

Hearing reports that Iran has launched a drone attack on Israel, not many confirmed details yet.  Hearing part or all of the Israeli airforce is in the air.

From what I'm seeing the drones have not yet hit Israel but the launch was detected and they are currently over southern Iraq, there is some limited video evidence of the drones flying from Iran over Iraq towards Israel.

If the attack is real then within 1 to 3 hours there will be reports of explosions, others are saying closer to 6 to 9 hours.  It depends heavily on where the drones were launched and exactly how the attack will play out if the attack does happen.

Essentially the main differences in attack are what wave the drones will be, some think drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles will all hit at the same time others think it will be different waves with the drones being either first, second, or third wave.

Edited by DarkHunter
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8 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

Hearing reports that Iran has launched a drone attack on Israel, not many confirmed details yet.  Hearing part or all of the Israeli airforce is in the air.

From what I'm seeing the drones have not yet hit Israel but the launch was detected and they are currently over southern Iraq, there is some limited video evidence of the drones flying from Iran over Iraq towards Israel.

If the attack is real then within 1 to 3 hours there will be reports of explosions.

Apparently, the drones number in the dozens and will take several hours to arrive.

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1 minute ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

Apparently, the drones number in the dozens and will take several hours to arrive.

I edited the post to explain the difference in hours being discussed.

Drones will take probably 7 to 9 hours to hit Israel, cruise missiles probably 2 to 4 hours, and ballistic missiles would be minutes.  

There is a lot of debate if the drones are the first wave, part of a simultaneous attack, or meant to come in after Israel exhausts it's air defense intercepting cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.  Depending on the attack, if it occurs, has an attack window technically of a few minutes to about 9 to 10 hours.

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The only thing in the area is a Israeli refueling tanker and a RAF tanker taking off from Cyprus of course they're not going to show fighters in the air. The Israeli refueling tanker is up almost everyday and sometimes there are two along with C130 gunships. I just noticed the purple plane and its call sign is Iron and it's an Israeli spook plane and it's not unusual for it to be in the air either. 

Tankers.jpg.119214e4725b1c28ca30a665dbce4b57.jpg

 

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