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US intel said to indicate Iran could strike ‘Israeli soil’ in next 24 to 48 hours


Kittens Are Jerks

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29 minutes ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

It would require a coalition of forces obviously, but it has to be done. Iran is the problem, and once it builds a nuclear weapon (and it will), it's going to become an even bigger problem.

I don’t disagree at all, I just think it’s a bad time to do. My concern when it comes to Nuclear weapons is Irans close association with North Korea, but I may be over thinking this. Anyway we certainly agree Iran is the most dangerous Middle Eastern country for Israel, maybe you right and the time is now. 

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1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

I think Iran expected the attack to be far more successful then what it actually was. 

I don't think Iran expected Israel and America to detect the drone launches almost immediately and begin downing drones over Iraq.  Dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles with hundreds of drones probably would of over whelmed Israel's air defense and would of done significant damage.

Iran probably also is over estimating America's ability to restrain Israel along with under estimating how likely Israel is to retaliate and in what ways Israel will retaliate.  My guess is Iran was hoping to do a strike large enough to bloody Israel and show they can hurt Israel but not large enough to draw in America and have America limit how Israel would retaliate.

Historically Israel probably wouldn't of done much beyond attack proxy forces in Syria, Lebanon, and maybe Iraq with the possibility of an assassination or two but after October 7 I don't think that the historic trend to how Israel will react is valid anymore.

Nah.  Iran knows the drones will be intercepted.  This is just so they can save face and say they responded.  If they didn't respond, they'd look weak.  So they choose to respond even if they know it won't do anything.

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2 minutes ago, Grim Reaper 6 said:

I don’t disagree at all, I just think it’s a bad time to do. My concern when it comes to Nuclear weapons is Irans close association with North Korea, but I may be over thinking this. Anyway we certainly agree Iran is the most dangerous Middle Eastern country for Israel, maybe you right and the time is now. 

Yea , actually i'm surprised that someone like Russia or North Korea didn't just give Iran either the ability or the nuclear weapons themselves.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Edumakated said:

Nah.  Iran knows the drones will be intercepted.  This is just so they can save face and say they responded.  If they didn't respond, they'd look weak.  So they choose to respond even if they know it won't do anything.

It shows that the Iranian regime are not suicidal maniacs despite what some are claiming. If the attack is too successful, then it just invites a massive retaliation.

Israel has been itching to launch strikes on Iran for years now but has found no support from it's allies in this endeavor.

Edited by Only_
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2 minutes ago, Razman said:

Yea , actually i'm surprised that someone like Russia or North Korea didn't just give Iran either the ability or the nuclear weapons themselves.

There is actually no proof they haven’t give Iran the designs for a nuclear weapon. But, I doubt they would give Iran an operational nuclear weapon. Because there is too much danger that if a nuclear weapon is used that it could start a global nuclear conflict. I think there is enough sanity left that no one wants that to occur. This is because no one wins if a nuclear weapon is used and when it is discovered which country gave the Iranians the device that country would pay very dearly!

JIMHO

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13 minutes ago, Edumakated said:

Nah.  Iran knows the drones will be intercepted.  This is just so they can save face and say they responded.  If they didn't respond, they'd look weak.  So they choose to respond even if they know it won't do anything.

The problem here is stopping Israel from responding, disproportionately, if at all. 

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5 minutes ago, Only_ said:

It shows that the Iranian regime are not suicidal maniacs despite what some are claiming. If the attack is too successful, then it just invites a massive retaliation.

Israel has been itching to launch strikes on Iran for years now but has found no support from it's allies in this endeavor.

They are maniacs, but not suicidal.  The leadership enjoys the power and luxury they are afforded so they don't really want that end.

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2 hours ago, Grim Reaper 6 said:

This is because no one wins if a nuclear weapon is used and when it is discovered which country gave the Iranians the device that country would pay very dearly!

JIMHO

Just curious...  If it was discovered, hypothetically, North Korea or Russia gave Iran nuclear tech how would either of those countries pay very dearly?

What would that look like that hasn't already been done to isolate those countries?  

**************

Also, who's to say either way that Iran doesn't already have nuclear warheads? They just proved they could hit Israel today. Tomorrow they could show everybody a nuclear bomb test and then what happens? 

Something is telling me they do have nuclear weapons or they wouldn't have done this attack the way they did it today. 

That was pretty ballsy. I think most people, including myself, were thinking earlier today that Iran just signed their own death wish. 

You'd think Israel would respond now after this. I mean, if were led to believe Israel has nuclear weapons and Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons. 

After 10/7 all we've heard is "Never Again". 

Israel completely obliterated Gaza almost immediately after 10/7. 

What's Israel waiting for? 

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3 minutes ago, acidhead said:

Something is telling me they do have nuclear weapons or they wouldn't have done this attack the way they did it today. 

That was pretty ballsy. I think most people, including myself, were thinking earlier today that Iran just signed their own death wish. 

Ok. One nuclear weapon, or 10; how does that face off a world with 15k plus nuclear weapons around the globe?  Having a nuclear weapon may  be like being a millionaire, not so much to brag about anymore. 

Ballsy?  Maybe.  They had to do something to save face.. Israel attacked Iran's sovereign territory and killed people on the Iranian soil of their embassy.  They announced in advance they would make a strike on Israeli territory in return.  It seemed more symbolic to me.  The champions stride out between the armies and fight to settle the battle.  Iran might have even been hoping for very minimal casualties  They said they are even now.  Wonder what Israel thinks? If it goes on, a lot more people are bound to die.

After the second round of the eye for an eye game, everybody is blind.

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12 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

If it goes on, a lot more people are bound to die.

After the second round of the eye for an eye game, everybody is blind.

I agree 100%. I always advocate for de-escalation, ceasefires, peace talks and negotiated settlements in all conflicts. It always seems utterly pointless. Eventually the fighting will stop and the average folk just wants to get along and live their lives in peace.  It's what I truly believe 99.9% of the human population on earth wants. 

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21 minutes ago, acidhead said:

Just curious...  If it was discovered, hypothetically, North Korea or Russia gave Iran nuclear tech how would either of those countries pay very dearly?

That would be up to the Leaders of the Global Community.

21 minutes ago, acidhead said:

What would that look like that hasn't already been done to isolate those countries? 

I believe that if Iran was given an operational nuke, I have no idea what they would do but I think sanctions are not the answer.

21 minutes ago, acidhead said:

**************

Also, who's to say either way that Iran doesn't already have nuclear warheads? They just proved they could hit Israel today. Tomorrow they could show everybody a nuclear bomb test and then what happens?

If they do have a nuclear device, they don't know if it will work because they have never tested one.

21 minutes ago, acidhead said:

Something is telling me they do have nuclear weapons or they wouldn't have done this attack the way they did it today.

I don't believe they have nuclear weapons.

21 minutes ago, acidhead said:

That was pretty ballsy. I think most people, including myself, were thinking earlier today that Iran just signed their own death wish.

Maybe they have, or maybe not I hope this entire situation deescalates because this conflict could become global.

21 minutes ago, acidhead said:

You'd think Israel would respond now after this. I mean, if were led to believe Israel has nuclear weapons and Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons.

First of all, no one knows if Israel does have Nuclear Weapons, a conventional attack doesn't warrant one. MAD Mutuality Assured Destruction has been the watch word since the 1950s and every country realizes it. I hope Pandora's box stays closed, because if it is opened I doubt we will ever be able to close it. 

21 minutes ago, acidhead said:

After 10/7 all we've heard is "Never Again". 

Israel completely obliterated Gaza almost immediately after 10/7. 

What's Israel waiting for? 

I think Israel is just bidding its time, there is no reason to act with hastily. I do believe they are going to attack Iran but I don't think the time is right with ongoing operations in Gaza. Also, if they attack Iran right now, I will bet that Hezbollah would immediately attack Israel, and a 3 front conflict would be very costly.

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As being from neither the US nor from the Middle East, seeing this with neutral eyes, I think this was a pretty justified response by Iran. If a US consulate was attacked by another country, the US could very well also respond with a one-time strike against military bases in that country, so I think Iran is just doing the same as what for example the US would have done if being in the same situation.

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10 hours ago, Grim Reaper 6 said:

Well, so far apparently none of the Iranian Drones has actually hit Israel. I am very surprised that Jordan is also shooting down these Drones!!!!!

Jordan president is pro west

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47 minutes ago, Mr.United_Nations said:

Jordan president is pro west

Thank you!

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3 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

Ballsy?  Maybe.  They had to do something to save face.. Israel attacked Iran's sovereign territory and killed people on the Iranian soil of their embassy.  They announced in advance they would make a strike on Israeli territory in return.  It seemed more symbolic to me.  The champions stride out between the armies and fight to settle the battle.  Iran might have even been hoping for very minimal casualties  They said they are even now.  Wonder what Israel thinks? If it goes on, a lot more people are bound to die.

I explained a few pages back in this discussion that embassies are not sovereign territory. It's just a myth. They are, however, afforded special protections from attack or other interference by the host country under international law. Whilst an attack on a nation's embassy/consulate is considered unacceptable in international relations, Israel (as a third state) was not bound by the law of diplomatic relations with regard to Iran’s embassy in Damascus.

Iran has long blurred the lines between its diplomatic missions and its military operations in the Middle East, hence the reason why its embassy in Damascus lost its protected status and became a legitimate military target. The blow to Iran was largely symbolic, hence the reason why it had to respond in kind, and the reason they say that they and Israel are now even.

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2 minutes ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

I explained a few pages back in this discussion that embassies are not sovereign territory. It's just a myth.

Thanks for the clarification, I missed that the first time.

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A video clip aired by Iran’s state TV service claiming to show massive destruction in Israel due to an Iranian missile and drone attack is actually footage of a fire in Chile lol. Guess it beats having to admit that 99% of the 300+ projectiles they fired at Israel were intercepted.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-state-tv-airs-clip-of-blaze-in-chile-claims-it-shows-destruction-in-israel/

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2 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

Thanks for the clarification, I missed that the first time.

No worries. It will be interesting to see if Iran blasts Syria for failing to protect its embassy, as it's Syria's responsibility to have done so. Given how closes they are as allies, however, I doubt the incident will affect their relationship.

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On the plus side for Israel, Iran's attack could possibly break Israel’s isolation and re-frame the Gaza war.

From the article cited below:

With its missile and drone attack on Israel, Iran succeeded in rallying the US and top European powers to Israel’s side. Not only did the US, the UK, and France express their unequivocal support for Israel; they actively took part in its defense, using a network of satellite, planes, and radars on the ground and at sea.

And instead of the UN Security Council discussing the need for a ceasefire in Gaza, it will be debating the Iranian threat and Israel’s right to self-defense on Sunday, with three permanent members sure to band together to condemn Tehran and Moscow.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-its-aerial-attack-iran-could-break-israels-isolation-and-reframe-the-gaza-war/

 

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1 minute ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

A video clip aired by Iran’s state TV service claiming to show massive destruction in Israel due to an Iranian missile and drone attack is actually footage of a fire in Chile lol. Guess it beats having to admit that 99% of the 300+ projectiles they fired at Israel were intercepted.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-state-tv-airs-clip-of-blaze-in-chile-claims-it-shows-destruction-in-israel/

Few countries send the same message to their citizens as they do to diplomatic rivals.  They have expectations to manage. No doubt Iran has a hard core group, just like on this site who want to see their enemies brought low and care not whether all civilians are eradicated on the other side or not.  Non-state actors like Hamas and Hezbollah may espouse that as well,  but states are another story. 

It may be glorious to be a young warrior ready to kill and die and wake up in paradise.  A parent or grandparent may have other priorities. like security and a good life for their children. A state that wants to continue its existence needs to take that view into account too. We do not have boots on the ground, but our ideas at their fingertips. Iranians who  interact through the Internet with the rest of the world can't remain unchanged.  Over time, the pictures of prosperity and personal freedom become beguiling.   The ayatollahs are losing their grip even now.  

But we can't wait a generation so we have to respond to their fu**ery now. and hope they learn a lesson.

 

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5 minutes ago, Kittens Are Jerks said:

And instead of the UN Security Council discussing the need for a ceasefire in Gaza, it will be debating the Iranian threat and Israel’s right to self-defense on Sunday, with three permanent members sure to band together to condemn Tehran and Moscow.

I think the issues are separate, and both deserve attention.  Israel being attacked by Iran does not negate what is happening in Gaza. 

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8 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

I think the issues are separate, and both deserve attention.  Israel being attacked by Iran does not negate what is happening in Gaza. 

I understand your point and agree. The only problem being that all roads lead back to Iran.

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11 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

Two Iranian missiles, seem to be cruise missiles, impacting in the Negev desert in southern Israel.  Despite what that tweet says there is no evidence that the base was hit let alone destroyed, even then two missiles are unlikely to destroy an entire base.

It's BS.  Iran is desperate for a win and is making wild claims when it achieved nothing.

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