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Putin picks new defense minister


DarkHunter

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With the inauguration over Putin has formed a new government and has replaced the defense minister Shoigu with Andrey Belousov.  It seems that Belousov has no real experience with the military having only been involved in economics before.  It is not clear if this will help, hurt, or have no effect on the Russian military yet.

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It sounds a bit like Putin has been or will be micromanaging the military.  That should be a positive for the Ukrainian defense.

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Posted (edited)

A bit more information.  The pick of Andrey Belousov seems to of caught a lot of people off guard, there were other people who were expected to become defense minister over Andrey Belousov.  Mostly there are two main pieces of speculation I'm seeing frequently.  The first is that Belousov was picked due to his economic background and the Russian government increasingly becoming dependent on defense spending to keep the Russian economy afloat, essentially as the Russian economy becomes more dependent on the military Putin wants to make sure spending is being done correctly to avoid an economic collapse.  The second piece of speculation I'm seeing is that traditionally when Putin starts to get nervous or faced with a dilemma he picks someone outside the area of expertise but extremely loyal to him to oversee that area, this is the second time Putin has put a person with no military experience but highly loyal to him as defense minister.

As for Shoigu he has been moved to being Secretary of the Security Council.  From what I understand that is largely a lateral move, Shoigu is largely going to still have essentially the same power but with just slightly different responsibilities.

Edited by DarkHunter
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3 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

With the inauguration over Putin has formed a new government and has replaced the defense minister Shoigu with Andrey Belousov.  It seems that Belousov has no real experience with the military having only been involved in economics before.  It is not clear if this will help, hurt, or have no effect on the Russian military yet.

Seems like shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic to put someone in the job with less experience than Shoigu now has.

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On 5/13/2024 at 10:05 AM, and-then said:

It sounds a bit like Putin has been or will be micromanaging the military.  That should be a positive for the Ukrainian defense.

I’d say it’s a negative for Ukraine. Putin is signaling more resources for the war because there is no direct threat as his his troops are rolling over Ukraine. The American indecision over Ukraine aid has also played into his hands. Besides, this way he makes sure Shoigiu has no power base to threaten him

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On 5/13/2024 at 8:16 AM, DarkHunter said:

With the inauguration over Putin has formed a new government and has replaced the defense minister Shoigu with Andrey Belousov.  It seems that Belousov has no real experience with the military having only been involved in economics before.  It is not clear if this will help, hurt, or have no effect on the Russian military yet.

Yes it is strange. But you can also look at it as ‘all economic resources are to be directed to the war effort’ and making war part of the Russian economy 

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16 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Yes it is strange. But you can also look at it as ‘all economic resources are to be directed to the war effort’ and making war part of the Russian economy 

All economic resources have been going to the war effort already.  Multiple dams have failed over the past year across Russia causing wide spread flooding of towns and cities, last winter heating pipes in major Russian cities burst causing loss of heating in the middle of winter, and various other forms of civilian infrastructure collapse.  

At this rate it's only a matter of time till Russian infrastructure is in such a poor state that they won't be able to continue fighting.

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4 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

All economic resources have been going to the war effort already.  Multiple dams have failed over the past year across Russia causing wide spread flooding of towns and cities, last winter heating pipes in major Russian cities burst causing loss of heating in the middle of winter, and various other forms of civilian infrastructure collapse.  

At this rate it's only a matter of time till Russian infrastructure is in such a poor state that they won't be able to continue fighting.

That might be the case but I hardly doubt Russia will just walk away from the war in Ukraine because its own infrastructure is failing 

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29 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

That might be the case but I hardly doubt Russia will just walk away from the war in Ukraine because its own infrastructure is failing 

It's not about walking away, Russia may very well disintegrate.  There are multiple ethnic groups with various degrees of autonomy inside of Russia with limited connection to the power center of Moscow and St Petersburg.  If the right rail bridges collapse and a few communication nodes fail large areas of Russia will be cut off from the government and it won't take long before these regions start having ideas of independence and questioning why they are giving raw resources and their men to a government that can't truly reach or control  them anymore, especially with how their men are being used as cannon fodder.

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On 5/13/2024 at 10:42 PM, Unusual Tournament said:

Putin is signaling more resources for the war because there is no direct threat as his his troops are rolling over Ukraine.

Possibly, but generally speaking, when a politician starts taking over for military strategists, the efforts don't tend to make things better.  Remember how Hitler trashed things at the last in WWII?

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2 hours ago, and-then said:

Possibly, but generally speaking, when a politician starts taking over for military strategists, the efforts don't tend to make things better.  Remember how Hitler trashed things at the last in WWII?

Normally I’d agree with you but there’s nothing normal about Putin. The generals got him into a hell’ava mess and it’s Putin’s intervention that has Russia dictating (pun intended) the war

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Putin has a limited personnel field.  He can't pick anybody too good. or too popular, or too qualified, or too ambitious, otherwise they would be a threat.  If somebody could fix the heat or win the war, how would it look for Putin?  He almost has to pick someone who will fail and take the blame, as far as I can see.  The goal has always been for Putin to stay in power, winning  a war is one way, continuing a war may be just as good if he doesn't run out of troops or scapegoats.

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