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General election 2024: Rishi Sunak calls vote for 4 July


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Sunak confirms election to take place on 4 July

Sunak says the king has granted the dissolution of parliament, and the election will be on 4 July.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/may/22/uk-general-election-july-2024-sunak-starmer-senior-sources-say-uk-politics-live-news

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So what is the reasoning behind this?  Is he quitting or just seeking vailidation for his policies by holding a vote to see if the public approves of him enough to keep him?

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7 minutes ago, Gromdor said:

So what is the reasoning behind this?  Is he quitting or just seeking vailidation for his policies by holding a vote to see if the public approves of him enough to keep him?

Inflation is down to 2.6% and he knows that's as good as his chances are ever going to get.

Or he's finally caught on that the country doesn't want him and has given up.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Gromdor said:

So what is the reasoning behind this?  Is he quitting or just seeking vailidation for his policies by holding a vote to see if the public approves of him enough to keep him?

I don't think you'll find many members of the public that approves of him, in fact no members of the public actually voted for him, he's the tories version of Gordon Brown and done just as bad a job as PM. 

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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So on july 5th we'll have a new, just as incompetent muppet in charge,

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, diddyman68 said:

So on july 5th we'll have a new, just as incompetent muppet in charge,

Indeed & with the addition of woke turned up to 11.

1551-3642287209.jpg.370de75e22214d2110e60308456c6b36.jpgStarmer-pride-1536x864-1516073243.thumb.jpg.efce33ab9998221646a0db6d565df28e.jpg

 

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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A picture paints a thousand words :-

GOM5K2WWoAAFEzL.jpg.e1d9ef3ca2f8965f3396a0fdf3daaa2a.jpg

 

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3 hours ago, itsnotoutthere said:

A picture paints a thousand words :-

GOM5K2WWoAAFEzL.jpg.e1d9ef3ca2f8965f3396a0fdf3daaa2a.jpg

 

Indeed, another Tory wet. Or at least very damp. 

I did think there would be no election until oct/nov. I don't see a compelling reason for July 4th.

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As a base line here is the predicted election result, seats won, from https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Low Seats Pred Seats High Seats
CON 44.7% 376 23.5% 32 92 214
LAB 33.0% 197 44.3% 352 479 551
LIB 11.8% 8 9.4% 18 44 58

The polls are showing a huge difference in potential outcome.

Will calling an election change this situation?

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Probability of possible outcomes

Labour majority
space.gif 98%
Lab minority
space.gif 2%

Probability of being the largest party

Labour
space.gif 100%
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I'm sort of past caring really. Until we have a real right wing option I'm not interested. Blue Labour or Red Labour isn't much of a choice. I'm just going to sit back and watch it all fall apart....again.

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I usually make a point of voting but this time might have been the time I sat on my hands.

But my MP is Bill Cash and I think he deserves a vote. As far as I know he is standing.

 

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On 5/23/2024 at 5:04 PM, L.A.T.1961 said:

I usually make a point of voting but this time might have been the time I sat on my hands.

But my MP is Bill Cash and I think he deserves a vote. As far as I know he is standing.

 

Bill Cash is colossally stupid. He may even be stupider than Rees Mogg, Fabricant or John Redwood. He's a bit brighter than our ex-culture minister Nadine Dorries though.

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On 5/23/2024 at 2:59 PM, L.A.T.1961 said:

As a base line here is the predicted election result, seats won, from https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Low Seats Pred Seats High Seats
CON 44.7% 376 23.5% 32 92 214
LAB 33.0% 197 44.3% 352 479 551
LIB 11.8% 8 9.4% 18 44 58

The polls are showing a huge difference in potential outcome.

Will calling an election change this situation?

With his policies he isn`t countering Reform and therefore they are going to split the Tory vote.

On top of that over 80 Tory MPs aren`t even going to stand as they know what`s coming. Sunak was a once in a lifetime opportunity to tackle immigration because with him being Asian no one could call him racist. Yet, he hasn`t ceased the opportunity. In fact, rather than impose something like a 30,000 limit, he let it escalate to over 750,000.

Once Labour get in we of course know it will be mass immigration and wokeness. The purse strings are also tight so nothing much with the economy will happen.

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I picked up my aunt today for lunch and a catch up. I asked her what her thought were about the election, she said what election?

I wonder how many others no longer watch the news and are unaware of developments in the Westminster bubble.

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Election 2024: up to 8 million people are not properly registered to vote

Research shows that many citizens often turn up to polling stations on the day of the election asking to vote, only to be told they can’t because they haven’t properly registered. This is generally because they have misunderstood voter registration or identification requirements. Gaps in the register are what leads the Electoral Commission to believe that as many as 8 million people could fall into this category.

Levels of voter registration vary enormously by demographic characteristics across the UK. One of the largest differences is by age group. Nearly all over-65s are registered, but only 60% of 18- and 19-year-olds. Those who were 16 or 17 when the latest research was carried out, but who may now be 18, are a particular cause for concern.

https://theconversation.com/election-2024-up-to-8-million-people-are-not-properly-registered-to-vote-230805

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Posted (edited)

 

The latest polling results from https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Low Seats Pred Seats High Seats
CON 44.7% 376 23.3% 37 66 225
LAB 33.0% 197 44.7% 342 485 519
LIB 11.8% 8 9.2% 29 59 71

This shows reduced Tory seats from the last polling. With their predicted seats down to 66 from 92. 

Labour up from 479 to 485 seats.

Lib Dems also up from 44 seats to 59. 

There will be other polls this weekend but I will just post from Electoral Calculus providing a like for like comparison.

Edited by L.A.T.1961
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Posted (edited)
On 6/1/2024 at 4:56 PM, L.A.T.1961 said:

 

The latest polling results from https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Low Seats Pred Seats High Seats
CON 44.7% 376 23.3% 37 66 225
LAB 33.0% 197 44.7% 342 485 519
LIB 11.8% 8 9.2% 29 59 71

This shows reduced Tory seats from the last polling. With their predicted seats down to 66 from 92. 

Labour up from 479 to 485 seats.

Lib Dems also up from 44 seats to 59. 

There will be other polls this weekend but I will just post from Electoral Calculus providing a like for like comparison.

Surely this alone shows how totally flawed our electoral system is. 

In 2019 the Tories got 376 seats with 44.7% of the vote.  But Labour are predicted to get over 100 more seats with the same percentage of the vote, winning a much bigger majority despite being opposed by over 50% of voters. 

And the Libs get more seats with less votes 🙄

Edited by Essan
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The polling for the Tories is catastrophic.

Sunak needs to go and put someone like Mogg in charge instead.

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18 hours ago, Duke Wellington said:

The polling for the Tories is catastrophic.

Sunak needs to go and put someone like Mogg in charge instead.

I don't see anybody else jumping in the hot seat and then take the hit from a lost election, its all too late.

Boris must be watching in full reap the whirlwind mode as the Tories hit the buffers. 😉

Mogg could join Reform? Stranger things have happened.

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30 minutes ago, L.A.T.1961 said:

I don't see anybody else jumping in the hot seat and then take the hit from a lost election, its all too late.

Boris must be watching in full reap the whirlwind mode as the Tories hit the buffers. 😉

Mogg could join Reform? Stranger things have happened.

Boris will be laughing saying that will teach ya!

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Posted (edited)

About sums up the current state :-

AFP__20240604__34V83AP__v6__Preview__TopshotBritainPoliticsElectionVoteDebate-e1717592556706.thumb.jpg.78ea383cc7a37938da214ed54cf75884.jpg

Edited by itsnotoutthere
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3 hours ago, itsnotoutthere said:

About sums up the current state :-

AFP__20240604__34V83AP__v6__Preview__TopshotBritainPoliticsElectionVoteDebate-e1717592556706.thumb.jpg.78ea383cc7a37938da214ed54cf75884.jpg

Pretty much, and the party the majority of people don`t want will end up with a large majority.

After entering into Downing Street it won`t be long before the mass immigration begins (as it always does and at a higher level under Labour). After that the guy is fiscally stuck. If he spends more inflation will go up. No good will come from the current political mess the country is in. I don`t get why Sunak hasn`t been pushed out yet.

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