Did the Labor party cheat ?

[Mark_C]

In Hartlepool and perhaps elsewhere an Exit Poll showed the reform candidate was ahead, yet when they counted the votes they said the Labor candidate had won by a landslide. They're saying the Labor candidate got 16,414 votes and the reform candidate got 8,716 votes. 

General Election 2024: Full Hartlepool result as Labour's Jonathan Brash seizes seat back from the Tories (hartlepoolmail.co.uk)

[Setton]

1 minute ago, Mark_C said:

In Hartlepool and perhaps elsewhere an Exit Poll showed the reform candidate was ahead, yet when they counted the votes they said the Labor candidate had won by a landslide. They're saying the Labor candidate got 16,414 votes and the reform candidate got 8,716 votes. 

General Election 2024: Full Hartlepool result as Labour's Jonathan Brash seizes seat back from the Tories (hartlepoolmail.co.uk)

Really? The right is that desperate they're copying Trump's tactics.

Please explain exactly how Labour supposedly cheated.

[Mark_C]

They asked everyone leaving the polling station to fill in a mock ballot paper ( this is an exit poll ) then at 10 o'clock when the polls closed they released the exit poll. No more votes were cast after the exit poll closed but it was 100% wrong. 

Im not a right winger or a lefty or a centrist. I dont vote its a waste of time, its what got us into this mess.

[Setton]

4 minutes ago, Mark_C said:

They asked everyone leaving the polling station to fill in a mock ballot paper ( this is an exit poll ) then at 10 o'clock when the polls closed they released the exit poll. No more votes were cast after the exit poll closed but it was 100% wrong. 

What you're missing is that people are under no obligation to complete the exit poll.

Reform voters are by and large very shouty about their party, so it makes sense they'd be overrepresented in the exit poll.

Quote

Im not a right winger or a lefty or a centrist. I dont vote its a waste of time, its what got us into this mess.

So why are you trying to call the integrity of our electoral system into question based on nothing but a wrong poll?

I'm still waiting, just why do you immediately assume Labour cheated rather than the more simple explanation that the poll was wrong?

[Mark_C]

2 minutes ago, Setton said:

What you're missing is that people are under no obligation to complete the exit poll.

Reform voters are by and large very shouty about their party, so it makes sense they'd be overrepresented in the exit poll.

So why are you trying to call the integrity of our electoral system into question based on nothing but a wrong poll?

I'm still waiting, just why do you immediately assume Labour cheated rather than the more simple explanation that the poll was wrong?

Because I find it hard to believe they could be that wrong. 

[Mark_C]

17 minutes ago, Setton said:

they're copying Trump's tactics.

Farage has been taking orders from Trumps team, Trump is supported by Rupert Murdoch, Rupert Murdoch supports Kier Starmer. Trump and Starmer are controlled by the same people. Theres no point in hating either of them for their politics they're just doing as they're told.

[Setton]

13 minutes ago, Mark_C said:

Because I find it hard to believe they could be that wrong. 

Well your belief has no relevance to reality. Polls are wrong all the time. 

The exit poll overall was pretty much correct. You really think labour would risk everything to cheat on just one seat?

And Hartlepool at that! I imagine any party would cheat to not deal with that ****hole!

Edited July 6 by Setton

[Setton]

7 minutes ago, Mark_C said:

Farage has been taking orders from Trumps team, Trump is supported by Rupert Murdoch, Rupert Murdoch supports Kier Starmer. Trump and Starmer are controlled by the same people. Theres no point in hating either of them for their politics they're just doing as they're told.

Well that's just so patiently ridiculous I don't even know where to start.

[Saru]

29 minutes ago, Mark_C said:

They asked everyone leaving the polling station to fill in a mock ballot paper ( this is an exit poll ) then at 10 o'clock when the polls closed they released the exit poll.

Exit polls aren't just based on asking everyone who votes to disclose who they voted for.

Only a small subset of voters are actually polled (around 20,000) and then statistical modeling is applied to try to determine which candidate is the most likely to win.

[Mark_C]

They're usually very accurate, quote 

"In the past five British general elections, the exit poll has predicted how many of the 650 or more parliamentary seats would be claimed by the winning party to within an average of four seats. Last time, in 2019, it had the winning party’s total just three seats out."

What Makes the U.K. Exit Poll So Trusted - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

 

I think yesterdays Hartlepool result must be the biggest mistake they've ever made.

 

Edited July 6 by Mark_C
add extra line

[+and-then]

37 minutes ago, Mark_C said:

Because I find it hard to believe they could be that wrong. 

We had a little difficulty believing when the same thing happened in the dead of night after the 2020 presidential election.  Here's a representation of a graph of the tally and the dump of tens of thousands of votes, all at once at 4am:

The media explained it away and shouted down all complaints and paved the way for the installation of a fraud administration.  If it happens again, America will begin to fall apart even faster.  There will be open denial and disobedience this time.

[Mark_C]

25 minutes ago, Setton said:

Well that's just so patiently ridiculous I don't even know where to start.

Its the truth , the person you support and the person you oppose both work for the same people

[Waspie_Dwarf]

47 minutes ago, Mark_C said:

Farage has been taking orders from Trumps team, Trump is supported by Rupert Murdoch, Rupert Murdoch supports Kier Starmer. Trump and Starmer are controlled by the same people. Theres no point in hating either of them for their politics they're just doing as they're told.

We are supposed to take this nonsense seriously when you can't even spell the name of the party you are accusing of cheating?

You pick ONE constituency out of 650 where the exit poll did not totally align with the actual result.

1 hour ago, Mark_C said:

They asked everyone leaving the polling station to fill in a mock ballot paper ( this is an exit poll ) then at 10 o'clock when the polls closed they released the exit poll. No more votes were cast after the exit poll closed but it was 100% wrong. 

Im not a right winger or a lefty or a centrist. I dont vote its a waste of time, its what got us into this mess.

That's not how it works.

Not every single constituency is polled and not every single polling station in a constituency are polled (in 40 years of voting I have never been asked who I voted for once). The polling occurs at selected polling stations in selected seats and the results projected from that. It gives an accurate overall picture but can be wrong in individual consituencies.

From the local Hartlepool Mail newspaper after the polls closed but before the result was announced:

Quote

The exit poll – which suggests Labour will win 410 seats nationwide and enjoy a 170 majority – is based on 17,000 interviews by Ipsos staff at 133 polling stations across the country.

It is unclear if Hartlepool was among the constituencies where surveys were carried out.

While its forecasts are usually dependable, they are not infallible – suggesting a hung Parliament in 2015 when David Cameron led the Conservatives to a surprise outright victory.

Source: https://www.hartlepoolmail.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2024-counting-underway-in-hartlepool-as-exit-poll-forecasts-shock-reform-uk-win-4691651

So there is ZERO evidence that voters in Hartlepool were even questioned, and even if they were it would have only been around  100 - 200 people that were interviewed.

 

[Setton]

2 minutes ago, Mark_C said:

They're usually very accurate, quote 

"In the past five British general elections, the exit poll has predicted how many of the 650 or more parliamentary seats would be claimed by the winning party to within an average of four seats. Last time, in 2019, it had the winning party’s total just three seats out."

What Makes the U.K. Exit Poll So Trusted - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

 

I think yesterdays Hartlepool result must be the biggest mistake they've ever made.

 

And the exit poll was right this time as well. Only 2 seats out.

Like I said, why would they cheat in just one seat?

[Waspie_Dwarf]

5 minutes ago, Mark_C said:

I think yesterdays Hartlepool result must be the biggest mistake they've ever made.

Again you don't know what you are talking about. The exit polls are (as your own quote says, if you could understand it) a forecast of the number of seats the parties will gain. It was pretty accurate again this time. it is NOT an accurate predictor of every single one of the 650 constituencies.

[Mark_C]

4 minutes ago, Waspie_Dwarf said:

We are supposed to take this nonsense seriously when you can't even spell the name of the party you are accusing of cheating?

I didn't even know you existed let alone place expectations on you.

5 minutes ago, Waspie_Dwarf said:

You pick ONE constituency out of 650

I didn't pick it I was born here

Can you provide a link to substantiate your last quote because thats where I got my information from and it says the opposite. Quote 

" Hartlepool borough councillor Brash was odds on favourite to triumph before polling closed at 10pm.

Yet an exit poll from Ipsos UK, which was released just minutes later, predicted that Reform UK candidate Amanda Napper was likely to win. "

from this article - General Election 2024: Full Hartlepool result as Labour's Jonathan Brash seizes seat back from the Tories (hartlepoolmail.co.uk)

 

[Mark_C]

10 minutes ago, Waspie_Dwarf said:

Again you don't know what you are talking about. The exit polls are (as your own quote says, if you could understand it) a forecast of the number of seats the parties will gain. It was pretty accurate again this time. it is NOT an accurate predictor of every single one of the 650 constituencies.

Yes but if they got it 100% wrong in 1 place and if this one place is just like everywhere else then they should have about a 50% accuracy rate not about 95% like they have. So how does something with such a high accuracy rate get it so wrong? 

Edited July 6 by Mark_C

[Mark_C]

Waspie, I just saw the link you posted sorry. OK your article was written 2 hours before mine, yours says unclear mine says they predicted the Hartlepool reform candidate to win. In order to do that they must have polled the Hartlepool stations.

[Setton]

18 minutes ago, and-then said:

We had a little difficulty believing when the same thing happened in the dead of night after the 2020 presidential election.  Here's a representation of a graph of the tally and the dump of tens of thousands of votes, all at once at 4am:

The media explained it away and shouted down all complaints and paved the way for the installation of a fraud administration.  If it happens again, America will begin to fall apart even faster.  There will be open denial and disobedience this time.

@and-then Discovers this mysterious thing called "the mail".

And just like you with your conspiracies, @Mark_C is talking utter twaddle here.

[Mark_C]

1 minute ago, Setton said:

@and-then Discovers this mysterious thing called "the mail".

And just like you with your conspiracies, @Mark_C is talking utter twaddle here.

We're talking facts, you're wanting to trade insults because you have no good information.

[Waspie_Dwarf]

2 minutes ago, Mark_C said:

I didn't even know you existed let alone place expectations on you.

I didn't pick it I was born here

Can you provide a link to substantiate your last quote because thats where I got my information from and it says the opposite. Quote 

" Hartlepool borough councillor Brash was odds on favourite to triumph before polling closed at 10pm.

Yet an exit poll from Ipsos UK, which was released just minutes later, predicted that Reform UK candidate Amanda Napper was likely to win. "

from this article - General Election 2024: Full Hartlepool result as Labour's Jonathan Brash seizes seat back from the Tories (hartlepoolmail.co.uk)

 

It doesn't say the opposite at all, it says that Ipsos were predicting a Reform win. It does not say whether any of the polling stations in Hartlepool were used in the projection.

Exit polls do not interview EVERYONE, EVERYWHERE. As your own local paper says 170,000 people were interviewed nationwide... out of an electorate of millions.

[Setton]

33 minutes ago, Waspie_Dwarf said:

So there is ZERO evidence that voters in Hartlepool were even questioned, and even if they were it would have only been around  100 - 200 people that were interviewed.

 

Wait so Hartlepool potentially wasn't even an area specifically polled? 

This definitely takes the award for most poorly thought out conspiracy theory 😄

Edited July 6 by Setton

[Waspie_Dwarf]

7 minutes ago, Mark_C said:

Waspie, I just saw the link you posted sorry.

My mistake, I initally forgot the link and had to add it later, although I had named the source.

 

5 minutes ago, Mark_C said:

 In order to do that they must have polled the Hartlepool stations.

Not true. The expected result of EVERY constituency is predicted using statistical means based on historic voting patterns. It is for this reason that the predictions can be very accurate nationally, but incorrect at an individual constituency level.

I'll give you another example... the constituency of Old Bexley and Sidcup (where I went to school). Widely predicted to be a Labour gain it was actually a Conservative hold. Is this evidence that the Conservatives were cheating?

[Setton]

10 minutes ago, Mark_C said:

We're talking facts, you're wanting to trade insults because you have no good information.

Except you're not talking facts. You're talking twaddle. That's not an insult. That is a fact (appreciate you struggle to recognise them).

Here are some more facts:

You haven't addressed Waspie's points that there's no indication anyone was surveyed in Hartlepool.

You haven't addressed that the exit poll only goes to a sample of polling stations, not all in one constituency.

You haven't addressed that the exit poll nationally was right.

You haven't provided any evidence whatsoever of cheating.

Any facts of your own? Just to vary your posts a little.

[Waspie_Dwarf]

4 minutes ago, Setton said:

Wait so Hartlepool wasn't even an area specifically polled? 

This definitely takes the award for most poorly thought out conspiracy theory 😄

Hartlepool MAY not have been in an area specifically polled, I' don't know for sure, but then neither did the Hartlepool Mail.

Even if it was one of the areas it would not have been all polling stations in the area and would only have been a few hundred people asked out of more than 35,000 voters.