+Razman Posted July 12 #51 Share Posted July 12 (edited) 1 hour ago, DieChecker said: True. Of basically everyone. Trump lying doesnt sell "clicks", gain "views", or "reposts", but Biden going senile does, it seems. Captalism. Even the level of our scandals are driven by media greed. Is the head dead yet? "Dirty Laundry" I make my living off the evening news Just give me something Something I can use People love it when you lose They love dirty laundry Well, I coulda been an actor But I wound up here I just have to look good I don't have to be clear Come and whisper in my ear Give us dirty laundry Kick 'em when they're up Kick 'em when they're down Kick 'em when they're up Kick 'em when they're down Kick 'em when they're up Kick 'em when they're down Kick 'em when they're up Kick 'em all around We got the bubble headed Bleached blonde Comes on at five She can tell you 'bout the plane crash With a gleam in her eye It's interesting when people die Give us dirty laundry Can we film the operation Is the head dead yet You know the boys in the newsroom Got a running bet Get the widow on the set We need dirty laundry You don't really need to find out What's going on You don't really want to know Just how far it's gone Just leave well enough alone Eat your dirty laundry Kick 'em when they're up Kick 'em when they're down Kick 'em when they're up Kick 'em when they're down Kick 'em when they're up Kick 'em when they're down Kick 'em when they're stiff Kick 'em all around (Kick 'em when they're up) (Kick 'em when they're down) (Kick 'em when they're up) (Kick 'em when they're down) (Kick 'em when they're up) (Kick 'em when they're down) (Kick 'em when they're stiff) (Kick 'em all around) Dirty little secrets Dirty little lies We got our dirty little fingers In everybody's pie We love to cut you down to size We love dirty laundry We can do the innuendo We can dance and sing When it's said and done We haven't told you a thing We all know that crap is king Give us dirty laundry Edited July 12 by Razman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acidhead Posted July 12 #52 Share Posted July 12 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acidhead Posted July 12 #53 Share Posted July 12 Younger members may not get this meme. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F3SS Posted July 12 #54 Share Posted July 12 2 minutes ago, acidhead said: Younger members may not get this meme. Depending on how things go, those names could easily be switched right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acidhead Posted July 12 #55 Share Posted July 12 7 minutes ago, F3SS said: Depending on how things go, those names could easily be switched right now. I suppose anything is possible. Though I can't see Biden holding out to the point where he gets nasty with the Democrat Party. Time will tell. It's a bizarre situation. Nobody has seen anything like what is currently happening except individual similar family experiences. Maybe that's the whole point of this as it enters another week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Razman Posted July 12 #56 Share Posted July 12 (edited) You could swap in " project 2025 " on Tonya. Edited July 12 by Razman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Razman Posted July 13 #57 Share Posted July 13 (edited) I was thinking about it after listening to interview with Trump today , and it's like Biden is stiff as hell , and like trying to prepare for every speech and outing, and it seems like Trump don't prepare for anything and just kind of makes it up as he goes, figuring what he's gonna say next as he's talking. Edited July 13 by Razman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Link of Hyrule Posted July 13 #58 Share Posted July 13 I think Biden is going to have to step down. You don't get this much smoke without fire, and it's only a matter of time before he's replaced. If the Democrats want any shot of winning this election they need to dump Biden, and that's ultimately what is going to make it happen. I'm very happy for Biden to keep running, if he does it guarantees a Trump victory and then it will be interesting watching everyone who said Trump would be a dictator have to eat humble pie when they realise he's going to do his 4 years and then leave just like every other president before him. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Katniss Posted July 13 #59 Share Posted July 13 1 hour ago, Link of Hyrule said: I think Biden is going to have to step down. You don't get this much smoke without fire, and it's only a matter of time before he's replaced. If the Democrats want any shot of winning this election they need to dump Biden, and that's ultimately what is going to make it happen. I'm very happy for Biden to keep running, if he does it guarantees a Trump victory and then it will be interesting watching everyone who said Trump would be a dictator have to eat humble pie when they realise he's going to do his 4 years and then leave just like every other president before him. He said he is not going anywhere and some of the polls that all of you believe in have changed and now show Biden in the lead. So does that mean the donors will have to push him out? That will be interesting. I wonder how they will do that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Link of Hyrule Posted July 13 #60 Share Posted July 13 (edited) 26 minutes ago, Katniss said: He said he is not going anywhere and some of the polls that all of you believe in have changed and now show Biden in the lead. So does that mean the donors will have to push him out? That will be interesting. I wonder how they will do that? I don't know what you mean by the polls "all of you believe in". I'm not really a poll guy. I'm the bookmaker guy. As far as I'm aware the polls are in Trump's favour, if that's changed then okay. The bookmakers tell their own story. The day before the debate, Donald Trump was the $1.62 bookies favourite ahead of Biden at $2.20. An hour after the debate, Biden blew out to $5, and since then the markets have been volatile for the dems, changing basically on an hourly basis (they've already changed twice today, for example). But Trump has been consistent, going down to the $1.53, and basically staying there. Joe Biden is up and down like a yo-yo, going from $9.50 outsider to $4 favourite behind Trump, while Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsome have in turn been the beneficiaries, with Kamala Harris currently the favourite for the democrat nominee ($5.50) ahead of Biden ($7). The bookies have been too volatile to offer much beyond "Biden is in trouble". As noted, they've already changed twice today (and I've only been awake for 3 hours - fyi, I'm quoting sportsbet in all my numbers, one Australia's largest online betting agencies). Sometimes Biden is the favourite, sometimes Harris is, but with this much smoke I don't see Biden survivin' 😛 Edited July 13 by Link of Hyrule 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Katniss Posted July 13 #61 Share Posted July 13 5 minutes ago, Link of Hyrule said: I don't know what you mean by the polls "all of you believe in". I'm not really a poll guy. I'm the bookmaker guy. As far as I'm aware the polls are in Trump's favour, if that's changed then okay. The bookmakers tell their own story. The day before the debate, Donald Trump was the $1.62 bookies favourite ahead of Biden at $2.20. An hour after the debate, Biden blew out to $5, and since then the markets have been volatile for the dems, changing basically on an hourly basis (they've already changed twice today, for example). But Trump has been consistent, going down to the $1.53, and basically staying there. Joe Biden is up and down like a yo-yo, going from $9.50 outsider to $4 favourite behind Trump, while Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsome have in turn been the beneficiaries, with Kamala Harris currently the favourite for the democrat nominee ($5.50) ahead of Biden ($7). The bookies have been too volatile to offer much beyond "Biden is in trouble". As noted, they've already changed twice today (and I've only been awake for 3 hours). Sometimes Biden is the favourite, sometimes Harris is, but with this much smoke I don't see Biden survivin' 😛 Oh, that is good! Yes. Never trust polls. So you have your bookmakers and I have Prof. Allan Lichtman and his 13 keys to the Whitehouse. If my husband would let me, I think I could make a living off of the bookmakers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Link of Hyrule Posted July 13 #62 Share Posted July 13 8 minutes ago, Katniss said: Oh, that is good! Yes. Never trust polls. So you have your bookmakers and I have Prof. Allan Lichtman and his 13 keys to the Whitehouse. If my husband would let me, I think I could make a living off of the bookmakers. Isn't Lichtmann using just a more complex version of the Primary Model? The Primary Model still predicts a Biden win, but if Biden stays on, I would argue that if they held the primaries again today, after the debate, Biden's numbers would be different. As such, I would normally be with Lichtmann, but I think his data is flawed this time round. That said, Lichtmann does believe Biden has the best chance of beating Trump vs dropping out, and incumbency is one of his 13 points, the dems lose that if he steps down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acidhead Posted July 13 #63 Share Posted July 13 Please don't go Joe!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unusual Tournament Posted July 13 #64 Share Posted July 13 5 hours ago, Razman said: I was thinking about it after listening to interview with Trump today , and it's like Biden is stiff as hell , and like trying to prepare for every speech and outing, and it seems like Trump don't prepare for anything and just kind of makes it up as he goes, figuring what he's gonna say next as he's talking. Well the good news is President Biden just successfully walked up the stairs to Air Force One. Seems there’s hope yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Katniss Posted July 13 #65 Share Posted July 13 (edited) 2 hours ago, Link of Hyrule said: Isn't Lichtmann using just a more complex version of the Primary Model? The Primary Model still predicts a Biden win, but if Biden stays on, I would argue that if they held the primaries again today, after the debate, Biden's numbers would be different. As such, I would normally be with Lichtmann, but I think his data is flawed this time round. That said, Lichtmann does believe Biden has the best chance of beating Trump vs dropping out, and incumbency is one of his 13 points, the dems lose that if he steps down. No, his model only pertains to the general election. Primaries come before the general election. I've heard Lichtman say in every election year people tell him, 'this time your keys are wrong' or 'you need to change the keys because it's Obama'. But he has never changed his keys and they have a track record of 40 years being right 9 out of 10 times. I remember when Lichtman made his finally prediction of Trump winning in 2016. Democrats and liberals viciously criticized him for it. It was bad. They were mean to that poor man. But I was overjoyed because I knew his prediction was going to be right, even when Hillary won the debates and was leading in the polls. I knew that a lot of people just didn't want another Clinton as President again. For me, it was the feeling of the nation's mood about Hillary Clinton more than anything. If I could have read people's thoughts in 2016, I believe most voters were thinking in judgement of Hillary Clinton becoming President as 'NOPE, no way, no how!' Edited July 13 by Katniss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+Link of Hyrule Posted July 13 #66 Share Posted July 13 11 minutes ago, Katniss said: No, his model only pertains to the general election. Primaries come before the general election. I've heard Lichtman say in every election year people tell him, 'this time your keys are wrong' or 'you need to change the keys because it's Obama'. But he has never changed his keys and they have a track record of 40 years being right 9 out of 10 times. I remember when Lichtman made his finally prediction of Trump winning in 2016. Democrats and liberals viciously criticized him for it. It was bad. They were mean to that poor man. But I was overjoyed because I knew his prediction was going to be right, even when Hillary won the debates and was leading in the polls. I knew that a lot of people just didn't want another Clinton as President again. For me, it was the feeling of the nation's mood about Hillary Clinton more than anything. If I could have read people's thoughts in 2016, I believe most voters were thinking in judgement of Hillary Clinton becoming President as 'NOPE, no way, no how!' The Primary Model also correctly predicted Trump's 2016 win (and has been right every time except 2000 and 2020). In any case, time will tell. If Biden is replaced Lichtmann's model would have to be rejigged with the new info. It's looking to be an interesting 4 months,, regardless of what happens. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myles Posted July 13 #67 Share Posted July 13 12 hours ago, acidhead said: Please don't go Joe!!!! I'm torn as I do not like the Democrats at all. I think Joe in the race is good for Trump but if Biden would win, the country would be in a world of hurt for the next 4 years. He is a racist, lying, child sniffing and touching senile old man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Katniss Posted July 13 #68 Share Posted July 13 13 hours ago, Link of Hyrule said: The Primary Model also correctly predicted Trump's 2016 win (and has been right every time except 2000 and 2020). In any case, time will tell. If Biden is replaced Lichtmann's model would have to be rejigged with the new info. It's looking to be an interesting 4 months,, regardless of what happens. Actually, Allan Lichtman said the only other way for Democrats to still have a shot at the Whitehouse if Biden drops out, is for Biden to resign after that making Mamala Harris the President. And so, they would still retain the incumbency and no contest key. Nothing would change with his model. Oh boy that would go over well. I personally know some people that would lose their minds over her becoming President. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Reaper 6 Posted July 13 #69 Share Posted July 13 39 minutes ago, Katniss said: Actually, Allan Lichtman said the only other way for Democrats to still have a shot at the Whitehouse if Biden drops out, is for Biden to resign after that making Mamala Harris the President. And so, they would still retain the incumbency and no contest key. Nothing would change with his model. Oh boy that would go over well. I personally know some people that would lose their minds over her becoming President. I certainly one of those people, because she is dumber than a box of rocks that have been crushed into powder. However, at this post I suppose it doesn’t really matter because whether the old fool (Biden) realizes it or not he has sentenced the country to 4 more years of Trump. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+DieChecker Posted July 14 #70 Share Posted July 14 (edited) On 7/12/2024 at 7:47 PM, Katniss said: He said he is not going anywhere and some of the polls that all of you believe in have changed and now show Biden in the lead. So does that mean the donors will have to push him out? That will be interesting. I wonder how they will do that? I like when Biden and his staff keep saying, "The voters spoke, and voted for him in the Primaries. Thus, he is the candidate/". But, wasn't George Clooney one of those who voted for him, and yet wants him to step aside now? Every single person in the Democrat party who wants him to step aside now voted for him in the primaries. ... Based on... What? Lies? Lies about how capable Joe was. The people NOW say they were wrong. So, will he still listen to the voters, and change HIS mind? Doubtful, as he has gotten Proud in his age. Pride comes before the fall. Edited July 14 by DieChecker 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+DieChecker Posted July 14 #71 Share Posted July 14 7 hours ago, Katniss said: Actually, Allan Lichtman said the only other way for Democrats to still have a shot at the Whitehouse if Biden drops out, is for Biden to resign after that making Mamala Harris the President. And so, they would still retain the incumbency and no contest key. Nothing would change with his model. Oh boy that would go over well. I personally know some people that would lose their minds over her becoming President. I hadn't thought of that, but I don't think Joe's pride will allow that to be a real option. If it did happen though, it would definitely be a better chance of winning than Joe as President. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+DieChecker Posted July 14 #72 Share Posted July 14 On 7/12/2024 at 8:17 PM, Katniss said: Oh, that is good! Yes. Never trust polls. So you have your bookmakers and I have Prof. Allan Lichtman and his 13 keys to the Whitehouse. If my husband would let me, I think I could make a living off of the bookmakers. Problem with the 13 keys is so many of them are subjective. Prof Lichtman is human, and subject to prejudices, just like everyone else. Half the keys can use cherry picked info to be true, or false. And Biden is only winning the keys by 8 to 5, if I remember right. Which if even two were flipped that would be 7 to 6 for Trump. se-8801006.pdf (socialstudies.org) All the ones marked with an asterisk can flip pretty quickly. It could be argued that Short Term Economy and Long Term Economy, could be judged as Leans False, because consumer sentiment is so against the current economy. Scandal? Afghanistan? The Debate? That should be flipped to Leans False also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Katniss Posted July 14 #73 Share Posted July 14 19 hours ago, Grim Reaper 6 said: I certainly one of those people, because she is dumber than a box of rocks that have been crushed into powder. However, at this post I suppose it doesn’t really matter because whether the old fool (Biden) realizes it or not he has sentenced the country to 4 more years of Trump. Um, not like you. No, the people I am talking about are a certain kind of people here in the Southern U.S. that lost their minds when Obama became President. Do you know what I mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Katniss Posted July 14 #74 Share Posted July 14 (edited) 13 hours ago, DieChecker said: Problem with the 13 keys is so many of them are subjective. Prof Lichtman is human, and subject to prejudices, just like everyone else. Half the keys can use cherry picked info to be true, or false. And Biden is only winning the keys by 8 to 5, if I remember right. Which if even two were flipped that would be 7 to 6 for Trump. se-8801006.pdf (socialstudies.org) All the ones marked with an asterisk can flip pretty quickly. It could be argued that Short Term Economy and Long Term Economy, could be judged as Leans False, because consumer sentiment is so against the current economy. Scandal? Afghanistan? The Debate? That should be flipped to Leans False also. Yes, right now, some of the keys could flip in Trumps favor before the election. But he also said the keys were about governance and he said that 'Biden would have to lose a lot' to lose this race. He also said Biden only needs 6 keys to become President again. And remember, he predicted Trump would win in 2016 and I know from his opinions he personally doesn't like Trump. So, I don't think he is bias when he goes by the keys, because he goes by what the keys tell him and not his personal feelings. In August he will make his final prediction, but who knows, it could be for a Trump win. Anything could still happen from now until November to change the direction of those keys. Like an attempted assassination. I don't know, we will see. Edit: Corrected my silly contradictions. Edited July 14 by Katniss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grim Reaper 6 Posted July 14 #75 Share Posted July 14 41 minutes ago, Katniss said: Um, not like you. No, the people I am talking about are a certain kind of people here in the Southern U.S. that lost their minds when Obama became President. Do you know what I mean? Yea I certainly do, my first duty assignment was at Ft. Stewart, Georgia in 1979. Ft. Stewart is located in very small town called Hinesville Geogia, that town was surrounded by Sundown towns! Peace my Sister!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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