Are Social Media Polls Lying to You About Elections?

[Grim Reaper 6]

 

Informal political polls conducted on X/Twitter during both the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections were significantly skewed by questionable votes, many of which may have been purchased from troll farms. This conclusion, reached by a team of scientists led by Przemyslaw (Przemek) Grabowicz, research assistant professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, shows that X/Twitter’s poll system deliberately reports biased public vote counts. On average, the results of such questionable polls favored Donald Trump over Joe Biden, 58% to 42% in a head-to-head comparison, during 2020..

https://scitechdaily.com/are-social-media-polls-lying-to-you-about-elections/

 

 

[+and-then]

Those polls aren't going to be trusted and certainly won't influence his voters to stay home  

[CrimsonKing]

9 minutes ago, and-then said:

Those polls aren't going to be trusted and certainly won't influence his voters to stay home  

"Lies,damned lies,and statistics"

Been that way longer than many think.

[Grim Reaper 6]

22 minutes ago, and-then said:

Those polls aren't going to be trusted and certainly won't influence his voters to stay home  

I totally agree with you guy's, I don't trust any polls personally and I think all BS!!!!!!

JIMHO

8 minutes ago, CrimsonKing said:

"Lies,damned lies,and statistics"

Been that way longer than many think.

 

[+Link of Hyrule]

Any internet poll where you are opting in is bound to be influenced by the platform it's on, the influencers who promote it, and the politics of their followers. And that's before you consider the bias of the question itself.

[Kenemet]

15 hours ago, Grim Reaper 6 said:

I totally agree with you guy's, I don't trust any polls personally and I think all BS!!!!!!

JIMHO

 

It's going to depend on how the polls are conducted and how the poll questions are worded.  This one from Pew Research about which social platforms are most popular in which countries seems reliable (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/03/22/whatsapp-and-facebook-dominate-the-social-media-landscape-in-middle-income-nations/)... but unless you're looking at aggregate research and polling company bias (as they seem to do on FiveThirtyEight), single results aren't going to be that useful.

Many are sampling their own base (Fox News, for instance, doesn't get many ultra-liberals answering their polls)

There's also (or should be) a margin of error.  When looking at today's political landscape, I think they may underestimate the margin of error when doing online polls.

...and, of course, you have to filter out for obvious trolls and troll armies and hackers.  That can be a bit more challenging to deal with.

[Sir Wearer of Hats]

20 hours ago, and-then said:

Those polls aren't going to be trusted and certainly won't influence his voters to stay home  

They’re not curated in order to keep Team Trump at home, they’re curated in such a way as to motivate the “maybe I’ll vote for Biden….” people to actually vote. Close enough lead for the boogeyman to make them think “hey, my vote might matter for once” but enough of a lead to mollify the “HEY THIS POLL IS BIASED!” voices in the media. Enough of a lead to make Joe look like the underdog, but one that could snatch a plucky win if enough peopl support him, not so far behind thst they have to say on the day when he wins “ohh, we were wrong”. 

[weaselrunner]

Polls lie

The media lies

The government lies 

[Myles]

On 7/16/2024 at 4:38 PM, Grim Reaper 6 said:

 

Informal political polls conducted on X/Twitter during both the 2016 and 2020 U.S. presidential elections were significantly skewed by questionable votes, many of which may have been purchased from troll farms. This conclusion, reached by a team of scientists led by Przemyslaw (Przemek) Grabowicz, research assistant professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, shows that X/Twitter’s poll system deliberately reports biased public vote counts. On average, the results of such questionable polls favored Donald Trump over Joe Biden, 58% to 42% in a head-to-head comparison, during 2020..

https://scitechdaily.com/are-social-media-polls-lying-to-you-about-elections/

 

 

Similar to 2016 when all the polls had Hillary winning.   I know several Democrats who didn't vote because they figured she had it won.

[Grim Reaper 6]

2 hours ago, Myles said:

Similar to 2016 when all the polls had Hillary winning.   I know several Democrats who didn't vote because they figured she had it won.

All polls are suspect, none are entirely accurate because of bias, it takes common sense to make consideration concerning polls because some are worse than others.

[Tatetopa]

On 7/16/2024 at 4:48 PM, CrimsonKing said:

"Lies,damned lies,and statistics"

Statistics don't lie to people.  People lie to people about statistics.

[psyche101]

Not a chance.

They are always 100% accurate!!!

 

😆

[CrimsonKing]

4 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

Statistics don't lie to people.  People lie to people about statistics.

Take it up with Twain 😜 😆...

 

[+DieChecker]

10 hours ago, Myles said:

Similar to 2016 when all the polls had Hillary winning.   I know several Democrats who didn't vote because they figured she had it won.

I remember Huffington Post stated the night before the election, that Hillary had a 98% chance of winning, according to their research.

[+DieChecker]

20 hours ago, Link of Hyrule said:

Any internet poll where you are opting in is bound to be influenced by the platform it's on, the influencers who promote it, and the politics of their followers. And that's before you consider the bias of the question itself.

I agree. Ive taken these polls online before, and they seem pointless. Those who visit the sites are heavily biased in one direction, or the other. Theres often nothing preventing you from just creating a puppet and voting as many times as you care to.

Polls have to be random sampling, or theyre worthless.