Ukraine’s long game

[Grim Reaper 6]

It remains to be seen what Ukraine’s longer-term intentions are, but the operation may have already changed the course of the war. Not only has it again exposed deficiencies in the state of the Russian military. If Ukraine is able to maintain control of even a small slice of the Kremlin’s territory, it may shift the calculus in any future ceasefire negotiations. Would Putin be prepared to accept a deal to freeze the conflict if that involved leaving Russian land in Kyiv’s hands?

Ukraine's long game (telegraph.co.uk)

[Unusual Tournament]

On 8/18/2024 at 4:42 AM, Grim Reaper 6 said:

It remains to be seen what Ukraine’s longer-term intentions are, but the operation may have already changed the course of the war. Not only has it again exposed deficiencies in the state of the Russian military. If Ukraine is able to maintain control of even a small slice of the Kremlin’s territory, it may shift the calculus in any future ceasefire negotiations. Would Putin be prepared to accept a deal to freeze the conflict if that involved leaving Russian land in Kyiv’s hands?

Ukraine's long game (telegraph.co.uk)

Dumb article. The reality is Ukraine is losing every where and then decides to open a new front to draw Russian resources away from Eastern Ukraine. Instead the Russians are heavily recruiting to create a new front. Maybe I’m missing something but it seems like Kursk is a Hail Mary 

[Grim Reaper 6]

8 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Dumb article. The reality is Ukraine is losing every where and then decides to open a new front to draw Russian resources away from Eastern Ukraine. Instead the Russians are heavily recruiting to create a new front. Maybe I’m missing something but it seems like Kursk is a Hail Mary 

I disagree I think it’s a good article, as far as your comments about the Russians recruiting, well that’s just more canon fodder. Because, all the soldiers Putin is pushing forward are untrained, so let him send them into the Ukrainian Meat Grinder!

Man from the beginning you have been against the Ukraine, why?

[Unusual Tournament]

1 hour ago, Grim Reaper 6 said:

I disagree I think it’s a good article, as far as your comments about the Russians recruiting, well that’s just more canon fodder. Because, all the soldiers Putin is pushing forward are untrained, so let him send them into the Ukrainian Meat Grinder!

Man from the beginning you have been against the Ukraine, why?

I’m not for or against anyone. It’s just a fact Russia hasn’t been attacked and Ukraine will always be on the defensive. Russia has more resources and nuclear weapons. It’s simple math

[Grim Reaper 6]

3 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

I’m not for or against anyone. It’s just a fact Russia hasn’t been attacked and Ukraine will always be on the defensive. Russia has more resources and nuclear weapons. It’s simple math

Russia has been attacked, in the Kursk Salient, I don’t understand what you mean that Russia hasn’t been attacked! As far as Russia having more resources, that’s true when you count the Ukraine alone. But the Ukraine isn’t alone, they have the EU and the United States behind them and it’s only a matter of time before NATO enters this conflict. Hopefully, the Ukraine and Russia will end up at the negotiating table before NATO is forced into this conflict.

[Trelane]

I distinctly recall some of the Ukrainian detractors here saying the Bakhmut operation was a "hail Mary' play as well. Maybe not those exact words but some saw it as the end of the Ukrainian resistance.

Edited August 29 by Trelane

[Grim Reaper 6]

1 hour ago, Trelane said:

I distinctly recall some of the Ukrainian detractors here saying the Bakhmut operation was a "hail Mary' play as well. Maybe not those exact words but some saw it as the end of the Ukrainian resistance.

I also remember that but what can we expect from some people.

[Coil]

7 hours ago, Grim Reaper 6 said:

Russia has been attacked, in the Kursk Salient, I don’t understand what you mean that Russia hasn’t been attacked! As far as Russia having more resources, that’s true when you count the Ukraine alone. But the Ukraine isn’t alone, they have the EU and the United States behind them and it’s only a matter of time before NATO enters this conflict. Hopefully, the Ukraine and Russia will end up at the negotiating table before NATO is forced into this conflict.

Ukraine is only satisfied with the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, and any other outcome such as freezing the war in the current positions will simply lead to a return to the state that has been since 2014 and has not given anything. Even if the freezing of the war were to take into account the Kursk territories, this does not give Ukraine anything, except for strengthening our negotiating position. Putin simply cannot say that we are freezing taking into account the captured territories. That is why Putin said that there will be no more negotiations. So the war should end only with the defeat of Russia. They still have Soviet stockpiles of equipment for two years, so I think the war will go on for another two years, and then they will exhaust their offensive capabilities and their front will collapse.

Putin cannot withdraw from the captured territories voluntarily, otherwise it will turn out that he senselessly destroyed his army and equipment in Ukraine and did not receive any trophy as compensation, and then the people of Russia will say: why did you start all this at all? But while the war is going on, the Russians do not ask this question, because some regions have already been included in Russia and there is a trophy.

Ukraine is not going to freeze the conflict and does not want to give up 4 regions as Putin wants in order to stake a claim to victory, and the Russians on their forums are already nervous about when all this will end. Since payments to the military are constantly increasing tenfold for signing a contract, that is, there are fewer and fewer people willing to fight in Ukraine, and only huge amounts of money can attract the poor people. So Putin, despite the large population of Russia, is experiencing a shortage of soldiers, but he will go to the end like Hitler, so I think he will not agree to the withdrawal of troops and defeat will decide the outcome of the war, and he is only delaying his terrible end. We do not want our country to be split into two parts like Korea and for decades there will be a Russian regime and terrorists, as we know, are always a source of problems, so a freeze is the worst scenario for Ukraine, even taking into account the captured Kursk region.

NATO will not enter the conflict because it is afraid of a nuclear strike from Russia, since Russia cannot handle a fight with NATO with conventional weapons, and a nuclear strike is already a loss for both sides and a third world war. Now Russian planes fly along the borders of Sweden and sometimes violate the air border, but their planes are not shot down. And when a Russian military plane flew into Turkey, it was shot down and Putin had to come to terms with this because Turkey is important to Russia. So the Europeans are afraid to drive Putin into a corner, Putin is already a criminal without brakes, so they do not want the conflict to flare up. So Europe and America will simply continue to help Ukraine in the hope of weakening Russia, but this weakening should be expected in a year or two until its resources are exhausted.

Edited August 30 by Coil

[Unusual Tournament]

20 hours ago, Trelane said:

I distinctly recall some of the Ukrainian detractors here saying the Bakhmut operation was a "hail Mary' play as well. Maybe not those exact words but some saw it as the end of the Ukrainian resistance.

Who is in control of Bakhmut today?

[Unusual Tournament]

21 hours ago, Grim Reaper 6 said:

Russia has been attacked, in the Kursk Salient, I don’t understand what you mean that Russia hasn’t been attacked! As far as Russia having more resources, that’s true when you count the Ukraine alone. But the Ukraine isn’t alone, they have the EU and the United States behind them and it’s only a matter of time before NATO enters this conflict. Hopefully, the Ukraine and Russia will end up at the negotiating table before NATO is forced into this conflict.

What I mean is that there are severe limitations on what the Ukrainian army receives in terms of weaponry and what it can do with that weaponry, i.e. Ukraine cannot attack Russia proper, in any meaningful way. 
 

If the west gives Ukraine a free hand to protect itself and take back territory and a nuclear umbrella to deter Putin attacks then I will agree with you. Until then I do not deal in wishful thought and get excited about the few Ukrainian victories 

Edited August 30 by Unusual Tournament

[jmccr8]

3 hours ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Who is in control of Bakhmut today?

HI UT 

How much did it cost Russia to take Bakhmut? You do understand that site of conflict was to draw Russian resources there and suffer heavy losses. 

[Unusual Tournament]

4 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

HI UT 

How much did it cost Russia to take Bakhmut? You do understand that site of conflict was to draw Russian resources there and suffer heavy losses. 

Not the point. You said something that was not accurate and I just pointed it out. What it cost in human lives and resources is another matter I doubt Putin cares about either

Edited August 30 by Unusual Tournament

[jmccr8]

3 hours ago, Unusual Tournament said:

What I mean is that there are severe limitations on what the Ukrainian army receives in terms of weaponry and what it can do with that weaponry, i.e. Ukraine cannot attack Russia proper, in any meaningful way. 
 

If the west gives Ukraine a free hand to protect itself and take back territory and a nuclear umbrella to deter Putin attacks then I will agree with you. Until then I do not deal in wishful thought and get excited about the few Ukrainian victories 

HI UT

Hmm, well the Ukraine has sent drones a 1000k into Russia to target sites not to mention Moscow, oil storage and refineries or their submerged navy. 

Ukraine has been investing itself in drone and missile tech and has shown themselves as very adept. 

[Unusual Tournament]

1 minute ago, jmccr8 said:

HI UT

Hmm, well the Ukraine has sent drones a 1000k into Russia to target sites not to mention Moscow, oil storage and refineries or their submerged navy. 

Ukraine has been investing itself in drone and missile tech and has shown themselves as very adept. 

Excellent news. Let’s hope they can make the conditions for such developments a breeding ground to have Putin removed by his own people. 
 

 

[jmccr8]

2 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Not the point. You said something that was not accurate and I just pointed it out. What it cost in human lives and resources is another matter I doubt Putin cares about either

HI UT

It's a given he doesn't care but the more he wastes the less he has and Bakhmut was costly none the less. 

[Unusual Tournament]

Just now, jmccr8 said:

HI UT

It's a given he doesn't care but the more he wastes the less he has and Bakhmut was costly none the less. 

Makes no difference since Ukraine is hamstrung in using offensive weapons against Russian targets in Russia. Putin has effectively isolated his people from the horrors of the war and relieved the pressure on his own state apparatus to eliminate him. 

[jmccr8]

5 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Excellent news. Let’s hope they can make the conditions for such developments a breeding ground to have Putin removed by his own people. 
 

 

HI UT

One could hope but it will have to be a total political system crash to go with Putin as after he is deposed some other oligarch will step in thinking he is a better, smarter mini Pu. 

[Unusual Tournament]

7 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

HI UT

Hmm, well the Ukraine has sent drones a 1000k into Russia to target sites not to mention Moscow, oil storage and refineries or their submerged navy. 

Ukraine has been investing itself in drone and missile tech and has shown themselves as very adept. 

Drones are limited in range and power and will strike once and then EW will be brought in to sever RF links. 
 

Look Storm Shadow strikes on Russian territory are still not allowed by the UK under tremendous pressure from America. If Ukraine does build such weapons and makes an impact then it will also come under the same pressures and it will be hard for Biden to limit Putin in making a nuclear tactical decision 

[jmccr8]

2 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Makes no difference since Ukraine is hamstrung in using offensive weapons against Russian targets in Russia. Putin has effectively isolated his people from the horrors of the war and relieved the pressure on his own state apparatus to eliminate him. 

HI UT

Yes to some degree he has isolated them with fear of speaking but don't kid yourself every Vlad on the street knows things are different. 

[jmccr8]

1 minute ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Drones are limited in range and power and will strike once and then EW will be brought in to sever RF links. 
 

Look Storm Shadow strikes on Russian territory are still not allowed by the UK under tremendous pressure from America. If Ukraine does build such weapons and makes an impact then it will also come under the same pressures and it will be hard for Biden to limit Putin in making a nuclear tactical decision 

HI UT

They converted a light airplane into a drone and flew it 1000k into Russia to destroy a drone factory so it's not like they can't or won't do it again. The Ukraine does a good job taking out air defence and radar systems that Russia can't readily replace just like they did in Crimea. 

[Unusual Tournament]

18 minutes ago, jmccr8 said:

HI UT

They converted a light airplane into a drone and flew it 1000k into Russia to destroy a drone factory so it's not like they can't or won't do it again. The Ukraine does a good job taking out air defence and radar systems that Russia can't readily replace just like they did in Crimea. 

There’s just so much against Ukraine that it’s really difficult to imagine them beating Russia with asymmetrical weapons like drones and a few missiles.

Geography and the fact that Russia is a nuclear juggernaut without any fear of America is the biggest problem.
 

It’s a David and Goliath battle that just will not become a fairy tale without a nuclear umbrella which means to defeat Russia, Ukraine must join NATO and it can’t join NATO while it’s at war with Russia and any peace deal Putin will want guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO . Are you starting to see it?

Edited August 31 by Unusual Tournament

[jmccr8]

24 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

There’s just so much against Ukraine that it’s really difficult to imagine them beating Russia with asymmetrical weapons like drones and a few missiles

HI UT

Not sure beating them is their intent in the manner you infer. Making Russia quit and back off is the main focus and if Russia didn't invade making territory lost from 2014 an incentive for the Ukraine to liberate territory as part of their defence objective the Ukraine wouldn't have taken any offensive action. 

Are you saying Ukraine is Goliath, as the story goes it was the underdog that made the day? 

You know there is always a bluster of how much someone has and yet I have known multi-millionairs that drove an older car, wore quality but no bling and seemed unassuming yet wielded great influence. 

No one is really going to expose all of what does go on just so media junkies can spin tales. Yes last winter there was a problem due to US political issues and supplies were disrupted and that has been resolved. At this point I don't think the support would change no matter what party wins as it increases US oil sales and development not to mention munitions production.