Kennedy expected to end his campaign Friday, in talks to endorse Trump

[docyabut2]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/21/politics/rfk-jr-speech-friday/index.html

[docyabut2]

Great ! President  Kennedy and his son the democrats  support Trump:):) 

[CrimsonKing]

1 hour ago, docyabut2 said:

Great ! President  Kennedy and his son the democrats  support Trump:):) 

Polls actually show Trump does better with Kennedy in the race...

 

[DarkHunter]

2 minutes ago, CrimsonKing said:

Polls actually show Trump does better with Kennedy in the race...

 

Nationally Trump does marginally better with Kennedy in the race but in most if not all of the battleground states Trump does better with Kennedy out of the race

[CrimsonKing]

Just now, DarkHunter said:

Nationally Trump does marginally better with Kennedy in the race but in most if not all of the battleground states Trump does better with Kennedy out of the race

Thanks man,seems like every other day things keep changing,I hate election season.

[+OverSword]

Why does every poll show Harris ahead but gambling odds have trump ahead by more than just a little bit?

[Hankenhunter]

26 minutes ago, OverSword said:

Why does every poll show Harris ahead but gambling odds have trump ahead by more than just a little bit?

A suckers bet? The more Republicans that bet on THE CONVICTED FELON, the more they make when he loses.

[psyche101]

LoL

RFK should be in mental health care. 

Edited August 21 by psyche101

[DarkHunter]

1 hour ago, OverSword said:

Why does every poll show Harris ahead but gambling odds have trump ahead by more than just a little bit?

It's not every poll and it also depends on if it's national or state.  The mainstream media will generally focus/use only one to three poll sources so it can easily look like every poll is saying something when it's not.

As for betting that is more complicated but it basically comes down to really math.  The first thing is if there are 7 or 6 battleground states cause there is an argument there are only 6 and not 7.

Starting with 7 battleground states there are 128 unique possible combinations of how those states can vote and 63 of them result in a Trump win (61 have Trump win outright and 2 result on an Electoral College tie which Trump would win in the second round) with Kamala winning in 65 of the possible combinations.  So with the assumption that any of the 128 possible outcomes are equally likely it's near 50/50.

If there are 6 battleground states, there are arguments that North Carolina is not a battleground state and will go Trump but that is another subject entirely, then there are 64 unique possible combinations and Trump wins in 39 of them and Kamala wins in 25.  

Essentially depending on the assumption you make it's either approximately 50/50 for Trump to win or approximately 61/39 for Trump to win.  That is assuming each possible combination of states is equally likely.  If you don't make that assumption then stuff gets far more complicated very quickly.

[the13bats]

1 hour ago, psyche101 said:

LoL

RFK should be in mental health care. 

I hope he does endorse tRumpy,  tRumpy is the go to for nut jobs.

[psyche101]

1 hour ago, the13bats said:

I hope he does endorse tRumpy,  tRumpy is the go to for nut jobs.

The conspiracy nutters tend to be red hats from what I see.

[Piney]

5 hours ago, docyabut2 said:

Great ! President  Kennedy and his son the democrats  support Trump:):) 

Only after he approached the Democrats and was told to get lost. The rest of the Kennedy's are still Democrats.

[preacherman76]

13 hours ago, OverSword said:

Why does every poll show Harris ahead but gambling odds have trump ahead by more than just a little bit?

You know why. 

[Agent0range]

 Where have I heard this story before?

Quote

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. sought a meeting last week with Democratic nominee Kamala Harris to discuss the possibility of serving in her administration, perhaps as a Cabinet secretary, if he throws his support behind her campaign and she wins, according to Kennedy campaign officials.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/14/rfk-jr-kamala-harris-cabinet-trump/

Donny's playing second fiddle.

Edited August 22 by Agent0range

[+DieChecker]

Id tend to agree. Recent polls in swing states that have RFK in the poll, seem to draw away more R leaning voters than D leaning voters.

Could be the difference in the long run. Wait for more polls over next two weeks...

[Bed of chaos]

Supposedly approached both sides, endorsement in exchange for job. Bold move. He's like Mayor Quimby from The Simpsons 

Edited August 23 by Bed of chaos

[+Link of Hyrule]

7 hours ago, Agent0range said:

 Where have I heard this story before?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/14/rfk-jr-kamala-harris-cabinet-trump/

Donny's playing second fiddle.

Sounds like RFK went to Harris only AFTER he wasn't able to get headway with Trump, he didn't get anywhere with her and maybe it looks like he's going to try to go back to Trump again. From the link you posted:

Quote

The Kennedy outreach, made through intermediaries, follows a meeting in Milwaukee last month between Kennedy and Republican nominee Donald Trump to discuss a similar policy role and endorsement that resulted in no agreement. In those discussions, Kennedy spoke about advising Trump in a second term on health and medical issues.

Is that really your definition of "second fiddle", because to me it looks more like he approached Don first, was rebuffed and then tried the other, that would make Kamala Harris the "second fiddle", in my estimation  

Edited August 23 by Link of Hyrule

[+Link of Hyrule]

On 8/22/2024 at 9:09 AM, OverSword said:

Why does every poll show Harris ahead but gambling odds have trump ahead by more than just a little bit?

They don't right now. The bookmaker that I mostly use for numbers (Sportsbet.com.au) shows a dead-heat right now, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump both paying $1.91 for victory, and this is the second time in two days they've been tied, yesterday they also were tied. When they haven't been tied, Trump has been in the lead (slight lead, $1.83 to $2 it was yesterday, IIRC). 

[F3SS]

This rumor stems from his running mate saying they're considering ending the campaign and endorsing Trump from an interview video going around last week. Guess we'll find out today. Supposed to be a "special guest" at a Trump rally tonight.

[+Sherapy]

On 8/21/2024 at 3:59 PM, CrimsonKing said:

Thanks man,seems like every other day things keep changing,I hate election season.

My two cents: polls don’t vote, people do👍🏼

[Antigonos]

On 8/21/2024 at 7:44 PM, psyche101 said:

LoL

RFK should be in mental health care. 

Even his own family thinks he’s a whack job 

Edited August 23 by Antigonos

[CrimsonKing]

2 hours ago, Sherapy said:

My two cents: polls don’t vote, people do👍🏼

I agree,I've never really understood getting a sampling from 1,500 people to get a read on 150+ million...kinda goofy.

[+DieChecker]

2 hours ago, CrimsonKing said:

I agree,I've never really understood getting a sampling from 1,500 people to get a read on 150+ million...kinda goofy.

A lot of these polls are like 300 people. And we all know they're made to mainly land line phones, and mainly picked up by non-working people. Then the poll agency "adjusts" the data to "normalize" the data into something actually meaningful.

It is fun to toss them around, but IMHO they are only marginally predictive of the elections results.

[CrimsonKing]

6 minutes ago, DieChecker said:

A lot of these polls are like 300 people. And we all know they're made to mainly land line phones, and mainly picked up by non-working people. Then the poll agency "adjusts" the data to "normalize" the data into something actually meaningful.

It is fun to toss them around, but IMHO they are only marginally predictive of the elections results.

Placebo studies are more accurate 😆

[DarkHunter]

22 minutes ago, CrimsonKing said:

Placebo studies are more accurate 😆

Polls aren't perfect but they are rather good when they are understood correctly.

To prevent this post from being too long just going to look at PA presidential election for 2020.

In 2020 Biden got 50.01% and Trump got 48.84%.

Here are a list of PA polls close to the election.

Every one of those polls got Biden right as every single one was within the margin of error and for Trump only one was wrong with being outside the margin of error.

The main issue is the media reports polls as a singular value instead of a range which gives this perception of polls being wrong when they actually aren't.

The math behind polls is very well established and rigorously proven, the same math behind polls is what is used by essentially everyone for quality control.  The main issue with political polling is that there are more variables in sampling then there is in checking a batch of light bulbs to make sure they pass quality control. 

Ultimately a lot of why polling, really just sampling, works is due to the Central Limit Theorem which is laymen terms is basically that for a sample of a population, for large enough n (smallest n can generally be for this to work in most cases is about 30) that the mean of the sample population will form a normal distribution and that the sample mean will converge to the population mean as n approaches infinity.  Generally for polling once you get 300 to 1500 samples that will get the mean of the sample pretty close to the population mean.