Kyiv Test Fired 1st Ukraine-made Ballistic Missile: Zelensky

[Raptor Witness]

Kyiv Test Fired 1st Ukraine-made Ballistic Missile: Zelensky - Barron’s 8-27-2024

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that his military had recently carried out the first successful test of a domestically-produced ballistic missile.

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Game changer, or the real “red line” that Putin cannot ignore ?

 

[+and-then]

Your link doesn't work.  Here's another:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-says-tested-domestically-designed-175536334.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

It seems like they're calling it a short range missile so it shouldn't shake things up too much.

[DarkHunter]

11 minutes ago, and-then said:

It seems like they're calling it a short range missile so it shouldn't shake things up too much.

A short range ballistic missile can put Moscow within range, Moscow is only about 500 km away from the Ukranian border.

It's not surprising, Ukraine has a long history with producing rockets and jet engines so Ukraine developing their own ballistic missiles and cruise missiles was only a matter of time.

[+and-then]

59 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

A short range ballistic missile can put Moscow within range, Moscow is only about 500 km away from the Ukranian border.

It's not surprising, Ukraine has a long history with producing rockets and jet engines so Ukraine developing their own ballistic missiles and cruise missiles was only a matter of time.

True, but the article gave no information about its capabilities of range or payload.  I suspect Putin would respond as harshly as possible if Moscovites had to begin running for the subways for protection on a regular basis.  I'm certainly no expert but it seems to me that the Ukraine war poses potentially far more danger for the world than the fight going on in the Middle East.  The fact that so many people seem untroubled by the possibility of a miscalculation that could lead to a nuke being used, makes me a bit nervous.  I guess it just gets down to me no longer having any faith in the people making these decisions in DC these days.

[Unusual Tournament]

This is big news. Such a development means western parts can be quickly sourced and assembled in Ukraine and fired with better accuracy than anything the Russians have. I see this as a positive game changer. 

[Unusual Tournament]

1 hour ago, DarkHunter said:

A short range ballistic missile can put Moscow within range, Moscow is only about 500 km away from the Ukranian border.

It's not surprising, Ukraine has a long history with producing rockets and jet engines so Ukraine developing their own ballistic missiles and cruise missiles was only a matter of time.

Only problem I see is Moscow confusing these missiles with nuclear armed ones and retaliating with a nuclear option 

[DarkHunter]

4 minutes ago, and-then said:

True, but the article gave no information about its capabilities of range or payload.  I suspect Putin would respond as harshly as possible if Moscovites had to begin running for the subways for protection on a regular basis.  I'm certainly no expert but it seems to me that the Ukraine war poses potentially far more danger for the world than the fight going on in the Middle East.  The fact that so many people seem untroubled by the possibility of a miscalculation that could lead to a nuke being used, makes me a bit nervous.  I guess it just gets down to me no longer having any faith in the people making these decisions in DC these days.

If the missile is the Hrim-2 then it is basically just a Ukranian Iskander.  The Hrim-2 has been in development since atleast 2014 with prototypes being built in 2019.  If that missile has finished development it will have a range of 500 km and a payload of 500 kg, essentially a Ukrainian Iskander.  

Ukraine during the USSR was a center of rocket and space vehicle research and development and a lot of that continued post break up of the USSR.  It is possible Ukraine has built an intermediate ballistic missile or a full ICBM but an ICBM seems less likely.  

Putin has the problem that he can't really escalate anymore as the only escalation left is nuclear weapons which would bring in NATO and cost him the support of China.  Having ballistic missiles hitting Moscow is bad but survivable, especially since Putin can violently put down any movement against him.  Such a move would leave Russia weak and would probably fracture the Russian Federation after Putin's eventual death but Putin would survive. 

Ultimately Putin can survive a lost war in Ukraine, even of the odds might not be the best, but Putin definitely can't survive a war against NATO.

[DarkHunter]

16 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Only problem I see is Moscow confusing these missiles with nuclear armed ones and retaliating with a nuclear option 

There is zero chance of that, Ukraine has no nuclear weapons and any launch would quickly be determined to be from Ukraine.  

[Unusual Tournament]

40 minutes ago, DarkHunter said:

There is zero chance of that, Ukraine has no nuclear weapons and any launch would quickly be determined to be from Ukraine.  

Well you are correct. Ukraine doesn’t have nukes but I suppose the Russians could make a case of its nuclear deterrent is based on ballistic missiles and an automated response. 
 

Still it’s telling this came out today from the U.S. military 

 

[DarkHunter]

40 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Well you are correct. Ukraine doesn’t have nukes but I suppose the Russians could make a case of its nuclear deterrent is based on ballistic missiles and an automated response. 
 

Still it’s telling this came out today from the U.S. military 

The problem with that is that Ukraine has fired ballistic missiles into Russia.  In the first few days of the conflict Ukraine fired a Tochka ballistic missile at a Russian airfield inside of Russia and if I remember correctly destroyed two fighter jets.  There is very clearly no automated response system that Russia has

[+and-then]

1 hour ago, Unusual Tournament said:

I suppose the Russians could make a case of its nuclear deterrent is based on ballistic missiles and an automated response. 

I don't mean to derail but I just wanted to point out that this^ is exactly the situation Israel will be in, the day after Iran announces they have nukes.  Imagine that every launch has to be considered a possible nuke strike.  VERY dangerous world is going to get worse unless the US stops Iran.

[+and-then]

2 hours ago, DarkHunter said:

There is zero chance of that, Ukraine has no nuclear weapons and any launch would quickly be determined to be from Ukraine.  

Is there anything you can imagine that Ukraine could achieve, like some kind of game changing technology that allowed them to gain a significant advantage over Russia that would lead to an escalation?  Not necessarily nukes but maybe some other kind of WMD?  In my experience, bullies who get punched in the nose don't always fold and run.  Often they take everything up a major level.  Also, thanks for the info in that last answer.  It helps to get a clearer picture of what's going on there.

[Unusual Tournament]

54 minutes ago, and-then said:

I don't mean to derail but I just wanted to point out that this^ is exactly the situation Israel will be in, the day after Iran announces they have nukes.  Imagine that every launch has to be considered a possible nuke strike.  VERY dangerous world is going to get worse unless the US stops Iran.

Well this is the problem for Ukraine and the advantage of Israel. Few understand but you and I do

[DarkHunter]

1 hour ago, and-then said:

Is there anything you can imagine that Ukraine could achieve, like some kind of game changing technology that allowed them to gain a significant advantage over Russia that would lead to an escalation?  Not necessarily nukes but maybe some other kind of WMD?  In my experience, bullies who get punched in the nose don't always fold and run.  Often they take everything up a major level.  Also, thanks for the info in that last answer.  It helps to get a clearer picture of what's going on there.

There isn't any game changing technology that can give that kind of advantage, in a very general stuff technology like that is extremely rare, generally way more boring then what people expect, and generally gives a winning advantage over time instead of an immediate win.  Arguably the best examples is in WW2 with the proximity fuse and the cavity magnetron which allowed the creation of centimetric radar.

As for WMDs there aren't really any that would particularly help Ukraine.  Chemical weapons while extremely dangerous generally cause as much problems for the one that uses them as the one who took the hit.  Even then against a disciplined military chemical weapons wouldn't provide a strategic advantage, might help break conscripts, but in general chemical weapons would be best against civilians which Ukraine doesn't purposefully target.  Biological weapons Ukraine doesn't have and even if they did using them is unpredictable.  Radiation/dirty weapons are more an annoyance then useful with modern military equipment.  Other technologies just aren't at WMD levels.

The only thing that would risk Putin using nuclear weapons is something that puts his ability to survive the outcome of the war at risk and there isn't really anything Ukraine can do that causes that.

What is a serious risk is that Putin might sacrifice Belarus to freeze the conflict in Ukraine.  It is possible Putin can force Belarus into the war then get Belarus to use the tactical nuclear weapons that Russia stationed in Belarus, having just enough plausible denability to have it be completely on Belarus and not on Russia.  The result would be Belarus getting destroyed but the destruction of Belarus by NATO could give Putin the excuse he needs to threaten nuclear weapon use and it being credible.

[Raptor Witness]

6 hours ago, and-then said:

The fact that so many people seem untroubled by the possibility of a miscalculation that could lead to a nuke being used, makes me a bit nervous.

Putin has no choice, but something suicidal, very soon. The precedent for U.S. in WWll that is we used two nuclear devices, so I’m expecting that. 

Self righteous, self important indignation… 

 

Edited August 28 by Raptor Witness

[Raptor Witness]

I feel like the only reason Putin, currently has, for not using his nuclear weapons, to punish Ukraine from using these new ballistic missiles, is the Chinese would be so severely damaged by the resulting economic downturn, if Putin went through with it.  

Such an incident, even if used as a limited example to scare the Ukrainians, would equally scare global markets. For now, Putin desperately needs China, but that calculus could change if Moscow suddenly became a target. After all, how could the Chinese argue with the need for Russia to save face, if Moscow became a direct target?

As I also observe below, recently, suicidal behavior, has become a “normal” policy of human government. This means that the collective sanity of the governed has been replaced by an evil that “We The People,” no longer have any control over.

Post #274

Therefore, the Declaration of Independence and the US Constitution are now fraudulent by the very measure used to establish the republic in the first place. That purpose being to promote and protect “Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness,” which of the exact opposite of suicide, as policy.

 

The solution is not dictatorship, as some are now arguing. Rather, we have a broken mechanism and method of representation. 

[bmk1245]

Let Ukrainians strike russky airports/infrastructure with long range western missiles. Dear Americans, write to your congressman to let Ukraine to strike russkystan deep into their military airports.

And, dear Americans, hang that scumbag Jake Sullivan, the only position he should hold is garbage picker in Cali....