Kamala Harris will win US election, Telegraph poll predicts

[+Link of Hyrule]

1 hour ago, Agent0range said:

It's absolutely hilarious that you want to post the bookmakers now, when they favor Trump.  You've made so many posts about the bookies in the past week, but didn't post anything when they've favored Harris.  Trumps handlers won't even let them unmute the mics at the debate, because they know he can't handle it.  If the people who are on your side say you can't talk, what does that say?

Incorrect, I posted it when Harris was ahead and when they were equal. And I said the same thing then as I'm saying now (and incidentally the same thing I said when I shared the odds way back when Trump first announced he was running and was the $3.50 outsider to beat DeSantis to the republican primary - still plenty of time for things to change either way.) You do know I've been sharing the odds since before Trump was the favourite, right? And when Trump was the favourite AND when he was behind I've said that underdogs win all the time and there's plenty of time for things to change. 

By all means quote me if I've said anything other than this since the beginning (and you can go back literally years to when Trump first announced his candidacy - I have been 100% consistent on this point). 

Edited September 6 by Link of Hyrule

[the13bats]

2 hours ago, Agent0range said:

It's absolutely hilarious that you want to post the bookmakers now, when they favor Trump.  You've made so many posts about the bookies in the past week, but didn't post anything when they've favored Harris.  Trumps handlers won't even let them unmute the mics at the debate, because they know he can't handle it.  If the people who are on your side say you can't talk, what does that say?

Its a form of desperation and denial, maga have to grasp at anything to avoid admitting sacrosanct don failed them and was beaten by his better in every way that being a mixed race woman, it very much is absolutely hilarious and i laugh each time they grasp.

[+Link of Hyrule]

2 hours ago, Agent0range said:

It's absolutely hilarious that you want to post the bookmakers now, when they favor Trump.  You've made so many posts about the bookies in the past week, but didn't post anything when they've favored Harris.  Trumps handlers won't even let them unmute the mics at the debate, because they know he can't handle it.  If the people who are on your side say you can't talk, what does that say?

 

1 hour ago, Link of Hyrule said:

Incorrect, I posted it when Harris was ahead and when they were equal. And I said the same thing then as I'm saying now (and incidentally the same thing I said when I shared the odds way back when Trump first announced he was running and was the $3.50 outsider to beat DeSantis to the republican primary - still plenty of time for things to change either way.) You do know I've been sharing the odds since before Trump was the favourite, right? And when Trump was the favourite AND when he was behind I've said that underdogs win all the time and there's plenty of time for things to change. 

By all means quote me if I've said anything other than this since the beginning (and you can go back literally years to when Trump first announced his candidacy - I have been 100% consistent on this point). 

From January 2023, Ron DeSantis is the favourite in this poll, and everyone at the time was calling me delusional for claiming Donald Trump had a chance of beating DeSantis in the Republican primary. How did that one turn out, Agent 0? 

 

Edited September 6 by Link of Hyrule

[the13bats]

45 minutes ago, the13bats said:

Its a form of desperation and denial, maga have to grasp at anything to avoid admitting sacrosanct don failed them and was beaten by his better in every way that being a mixed race woman, it very much is absolutely hilarious and i laugh each time they grasp.

And i still find polls flawed by sheer nature of how they work,

Poll groups are never going to be unbiased, unleaning,without flaws, humans are fallible.

I have my one way i predict elections and perhaps its my flaws or my detachment but i believe harris will win and win by a margine good enough that when trump bellows frauds even a lot of maga will laugh and say give up donny,  you lost.

 

[+Link of Hyrule]

1 hour ago, the13bats said:

And i still find polls flawed by sheer nature of how they work,

Poll groups are never going to be unbiased, unleaning,without flaws, humans are fallible.

I have my one way i predict elections and perhaps its my flaws or my detachment but i believe harris will win and win by a margine good enough that when trump bellows frauds even a lot of maga will laugh and say give up donny,  you lost.

 

Incidentally, you posted in that thread I quoted too. Back in January 2023 you said that Trump's run for the GOP nomination was slow and boring and that his GOP nomination had "the sound of crickets", he was going to lose to DeSantis bigly (and you cited "current events" as the reason for why Trump was going to lose to DeSantis - "wake up to current events", you said). Turns out your belief that Trump wouldn't even go beyond the primaries was incorrect. Are you sure you aren't still incorrect on this one? I mean, 21 months later and your comments about Trump are virtually identical today as they were back in early 2023. 

Edited September 6 by Link of Hyrule

[MrAnderson]

17 hours ago, Tatetopa said:

Trump is tying himself up with conflicting promises.  He tells people he will fund IVF and be good for women's rights. Who is going to believe that?  Meanwhile though  he betrays his base with this nonsense because IVF discards embryos.   Does he realize that everybody can hear him when he makes those promises?

These promises are not very convincing. You got this right. And even if he really means that he says I doubt he will be able to implement these promises of he gets elected.

[MrAnderson]

10 hours ago, Link of Hyrule said:

 

From January 2023, Ron DeSantis is the favourite in this poll, and everyone at the time was calling me delusional for claiming Donald Trump had a chance of beating DeSantis in the Republican primary. How did that one turn out, Agent 0? 

 

I never thought Ron DeSantis would be successful. Always thought Trump will make it in the end. I think the whole campaign to present Ron DeSantis as the most popular candidate was at least suspicious.

[Trelane]

Wait, someone mentioned Trump has handlers? Whoever "they" are they should be fired because they are clearly failing at their job 😂

[MrAnderson]

17 hours ago, Link of Hyrule said:

I still expect Donald Trump to win. The polls may predict a 1-2 point victory by Kamala but the margin of error is easily going to be 5 points based on past experiences, so this is still too early to call for any side. The bookmakers still have Trump as the favourite ($1.86 vs Kamala's $2). Kamala isn't getting more popular, if anything she is waning in the most recent polls. 

You are not wrong on this and the result is not predetermined. Hillary was expected to win and look what happened. I am not voting for Trump or Harris but I recognise that the system is doing everything in its power to have Trump defeated in these elections just as it did back in 2016 and 2020.

Edited September 6 by MrAnderson

[Tatetopa]

19 hours ago, pellinore said:

This reminds me of the Brer Rabbit story and the briar patch.

Nailed it.

[Zebra3]

 

[pellinore]

21 hours ago, Hankenhunter said:

Ditto. When Trump loses, are you going to admit he lost? Or are you going to continue the lie that the election was rigged?

They will. In that respect only they can't lose. It is similar in the UK with Brexit- the populists forced a win with lies and braggadocio saying everything will be cheaper and immigration would end, and since then immigration has risen massively and food inflation is so uncontrollable we can't even implement our legal (and sensible) obligations to check imports. But the fault lies.... not with Brexit, but the people who opposed it.

If Trump loses, the fault will be....the electorate, who were misled into voting the wrong way; the count was illegal; the Democrats undermined democracy- anything but the truth, which is he lost.

That's the problem for Populist politicians- they have only one shot as the result is always disaster. So they have to seize power biggly the first time around. Fortunately, the US electorate can't be fooled twice. I hope.

 

 

[Tatetopa]

5 hours ago, Trelane said:

Wait, someone mentioned Trump has handlers? Whoever "they" are they should be fired because they are clearly failing at their job 😂

There is only so much they can do.  It looks like now they have him sedated, but he still wanders off.

[psyche101]

On 9/6/2024 at 11:55 AM, Hawken said:

One thing is for sure. The media has proven to me that a lot of people can't think for themselves, but rather the media thinks for them.

You are proof that right wing media can sell any crap and people like you lap it up thinking you are in the know. Guess what. You're not. 

[MrAnderson]

12 hours ago, psyche101 said:

You are proof that right wing media can sell any crap and people like you lap it up thinking you are in the know. Guess what. You're not. 

The same can be said about left wing media. There is a lot of nonsense propagated online and offline. The MSM in particular are known for biased coverage of the news and often ften they are provoking the public with their behaviour.

[psyche101]

6 hours ago, MrAnderson said:

The same can be said about left wing media. There is a lot of nonsense propagated online and offline. The MSM in particular are known for biased coverage of the news and often ften they are provoking the public with their behaviour.

Nobody is proclaiming the left wing media canonized them as an arbiter of truth. 

Hawken is stating right wing media affords him that position.

It actually says the exact opposite about him. 

Right wing media is far more provocative than left, namely because it employs thugs and criminals as ambassadors and weak people see them are a heros because they are nothing by themselves.

[+Sherapy]

On 9/6/2024 at 2:22 PM, Tatetopa said:

There is only so much they can do.  It looks like now they have him sedated, but he still wanders off.

I truly think he is on something too, but it isn't helping.

[MrAnderson]

7 hours ago, psyche101 said:

Nobody is proclaiming the left wing media canonized them as an arbiter of truth. 

Hawken is stating right wing media affords him that position.

It actually says the exact opposite about him. 

Right wing media is far more provocative than left, namely because it employs thugs and criminals as ambassadors and weak people see them are a heros because they are nothing by themselves.

Are you sure that right wing media are more provocative than the left wing media?  And what makes you so sure about it? Because it can said that the left wing media are more provocative than the right wing media depending on the political leanings of posters and their understanding.

Edited September 8 by MrAnderson

[psyche101]

7 minutes ago, MrAnderson said:

Are you sure that right wing media are more provocative than the left wing media? 

Yes.

7 minutes ago, MrAnderson said:

And what makes you so sure about it?

The aforementioned thugs and criminals held up as heroes. 

7 minutes ago, MrAnderson said:

Because it can said that the left wing media are more provocative than the right wing media depending on the political leanings of posters and their understanding.

You can say what you want. Nobody has to listen. The aforementioned says plenty. Lolbertarians too. They are just closet anarchists without a cause.

[MrAnderson]

1 minute ago, psyche101 said:

Yes.

The aforementioned thugs and criminals held up as heroes. 

You can say what you want. Nobody has to listen. The aforementioned says plenty. Lolbertarians too. They are just closet anarchists without a cause.

Who are these thugs and criminals? Who you are referring to?

[+Link of Hyrule]

On 9/7/2024 at 1:27 AM, MrAnderson said:

I never thought Ron DeSantis would be successful. Always thought Trump will make it in the end. I think the whole campaign to present Ron DeSantis as the most popular candidate was at least suspicious.

I didn't always think he would win, back when he first announced I didn't think he'd beat Ron DeSantis. However, I did make the point that he was more popular back then than the media was making him out to be and that Trump had a stronger chance than many made out. There were people here on UM saying Trump would NOT win the GOP primary, he was a lame duck with zero chance. These are the same people trying to convince us today that Kamala Harris is so far ahead. 

Our local Aussie taxpayer funded ABC has just released an article earlier today, in which they are finally acknowledging that Kamala may not have the numbers to win. Though the article puts a typical ABC spin on the electoral college (yet more evidence why they don't deserve to be funded with tax dollars  - eg, they call the US electoral system "strange" and claims that no other democracy works like that, with most democracies choosing a winner based on a national popular vote - which is a lie if you're talking about Australia as our vote is NOT based on a popular vote, and since this is Australia's taxpayer funded media company, one would think that would be worth pointing out here), the conclusions they make are pretty clear, with the expert they interviewed claiming: "She actually does have a problem. The polling I've seen still has Trump as being a narrow favourite to win the Electoral College even though Harris is clearly ahead on the popular vote. So, it's a real problem". 

Strangely enough, I just checked the odds at the bookmakers, and Trump has gone further ahead (now $1.80) and Harris has fallen further behind (now $2.10). I wonder if these kinds of polls are the reason why. The odds back what Dr Reilly is suggesting, as the democrats are odds on favourites to win the Popular Vote ($1.22 favourites), they are still behind in the overall Electoral College. 

 

On 9/7/2024 at 1:31 AM, MrAnderson said:

You are not wrong on this and the result is not predetermined. Hillary was expected to win and look what happened. I am not voting for Trump or Harris but I recognise that the system is doing everything in its power to have Trump defeated in these elections just as it did back in 2016 and 2020.

I wasn't a big follower of politics back in 2016, so I only kept up with what was happening in the most cursory of ways. 

Edited September 9 by Link of Hyrule

[+Link of Hyrule]

On 9/6/2024 at 9:17 AM, Hankenhunter said:

Ditto. When Trump loses, are you going to admit he lost? Or are you going to continue the lie that the election was rigged?

Follow up question, Hank - if Trump wins the Electoral College but loses the popular vote (as current polling seems to indicate) will you admit Harris lost and Trump won, or are you going to continue the lie that the election was rigged? 

Edited September 9 by Link of Hyrule

[+Link of Hyrule]

Should we change the title of the thread: 

Quote

Top pollster finds Trump gaining momentum against Harris – with 58% chance of winning 2024 race

Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election have surged in the last month while Vice President Kamala Harris has struggled to find “a 2nd gear,” according to polling guru Nate Silver. 

The data analyst and founder of FiveThirtyEight revealed Wednesday that his presidential race model now indicates that Trump has a 58.2% chance of winning the Electoral College in November compared to Harris’ 41.6% chance. 

“Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,” Silver wrote in his latest election forecast bulletin. “And the chance of an Electoral College-popular vote split working against Harris has risen to almost 18 percent.”

https://nypost.com/2024/09/04/us-news/top-pollster-finds-trump-has-58-chance-of-winning-2024-race/

Edit: "The honeymoon is over", Poll shows "effective tie" between two major candidates. 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-09/poll-shows-effective-tie-between-harris-and-trump/104326760

Edited September 9 by Link of Hyrule

[acidhead]

What's your prediction on the scheduled debate on Tuesday? First, do think she's even going to show up? On that betting site you use, are there odds/betting if she shows up or not on Tuesday?

Edited September 9 by acidhead

[Cho Jinn]

Real Clear Politics and its meta analysis is about the best polling resource.  “National” polls are less relevant, but generally Harris is significantly behind where Clinton was at this point.  Harris’ slumpy, chaperoned interview provided no sustained bounce and all signs point to an uncomfortable and embarrassing thrashing on Tuesday.  Democrats need Trump to keel over, really.