Elon Musk Says SpaceX will Launch Starships to Mars in Two Years

[Waspie_Dwarf]

 

[Waspie_Dwarf]

 

[Saru]

Musk is always a bit over-ambitious with his timetables - I can't imagine that we'll see crewed flights to Mars within just four years.

[Waspie_Dwarf]

24 minutes ago, Saru said:

Musk is always a bit over-ambitious with his timetables - I can't imagine that we'll see crewed flights to Mars within just four years.

My thoughts exactly. I suspect the uncrewed mission to Mars in two years is over optimistic too.

SpaceX has a contract with NASA to land astronauts on the Moon as part of the Artemis III mission in September 2026 using Starship. The Super Heavy booster and Starship are only capable of reaching low Earth orbit. To reach the Moon or Mars the Starship has to be refuelled in orbit. NASA estimates that for a lunar mission SpaceX would have to launch close to 20 Starships for one, single, lunar landing. The contract for Artemis III includes an uncrewed demonstration flight. So just to land on the Moon in two years SpaceX would have to complete around 40 launches for a system which is still not operational after 4 test flights. To additionally send 4 uncrewed Starships to Mars in the same time frame SpaceX would have to achieve around 120 successful flights in just two years.

I'd be a fool to write off SpaceX but if I had to bet I would say that the uncrewed missions will be in 2026 and the crewed missions maybe in 2028 but more likely 2030 or after.

[garen1]

Doubt they can put people on moon within 10 years. Mars in 4 years? Someone has too much time and money to daydream. 

[Portre]

"These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars. If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in four years."

I hope testing the reliability of launching from Mars would be between step1 and step 2.

[Waspie_Dwarf]

18 minutes ago, garen1 said:

Doubt they can put people on moon within 10 years.

Really? What alternate reality did you pull that figure from because it sure isn't from this universe. 

Artemis I has already flown a test mission around the Moon. Artemis Ii, scheduled for 1 year from now will send 4 astronauts around the Moon for the first time since 1972. Artemis III scheduled for September 2026 will land astronauts on the Moon. The hardware has already been built and (with the exception of SpaceX's Lunar Starship lander) tested. There will be humans on the moon in 2-3 years. If not Americans then Chinese. 

[Waspie_Dwarf]

20 minutes ago, Portre said:

I hope testing the reliability of launching from Mars would be between step1 and step 2.

And there is another massive problem with Musk's timetable. 

Just as Starship can't leave Earth orbit without refuelling, it can't launch from Mars without refuelling. The plan is to manufacture methane on the Martian surface... but that technology hasn't been built yet. For Musk's timeline to work that technology would have to be on board the Starships he sends to Mars uncrewed. They have to successfully land and successfully manufacture the fuel, and do all that within 2 years from now. SpaceX haven't even refuelled a spacecraft in orbit yet. Having the ability to do it on Mars within this time frame seems very  VERY, optimistic. 

[Robotic Jew]

I'd like to go. 

[Waspie_Dwarf]

40 minutes ago, Robotic Jew said:

I'd like to go. 

So would I, but not as a guinea pig with very little chance of surviving the trip.

[jethrofloyd]

I'am a bit skeptical. While the Tesla cars don't work in the cold(batteries don't work as we'll when it is really cold), we should on the other hand fly to the Mars within just four years ?!

[Robotic Jew]

13 minutes ago, Waspie_Dwarf said:

So would I, but not as a guinea pig with very little chance of surviving the trip.

That's the only way I want to go. 

[Waspie_Dwarf]

30 minutes ago, Robotic Jew said:

That's the only way I want to go. 

That's not the spirit of exploration, that's suicidal thinking and that needs therapy not a space launch.

[Jon the frog]

Damn, 4 years ?...that's a lot of hoping there !

[Cho Jinn]

3 hours ago, Waspie_Dwarf said:

That's not the spirit of exploration, that's suicidal thinking and that needs therapy not a space launch.

Don't be such a baby, Waspie.  Get out there.

[garen1]

5 hours ago, Waspie_Dwarf said:

Really? What alternate reality did you pull that figure from because it sure isn't from this universe. 

Artemis I has already flown a test mission around the Moon. Artemis Ii, scheduled for 1 year from now will send 4 astronauts around the Moon for the first time since 1972. Artemis III scheduled for September 2026 will land astronauts on the Moon. The hardware has already been built and (with the exception of SpaceX's Lunar Starship lander) tested. There will be humans on the moon in 2-3 years. If not Americans then Chinese. 

And they are going to be Chinese. Really? No Chinese will be on the moon, cause they will be busy with belt and road spending money on real economy and cooperation, while someone still prints and dreams up the money to go to Mars? Oops too ambitious. Moon excuse me. 

[MrAnderson]

9 hours ago, Waspie_Dwarf said:

 

 

8 hours ago, Saru said:

Musk is always a bit over-ambitious with his timetables - I can't imagine that we'll see crewed flights to Mars within just four years.

How can we go to Mars when we can't even go to the moon at the moment. The last time we achieved it was in 1972. There have been no missions to the moon since then. And everything we knew has gone. They need to start all over again and go to the moon and then plan the mission to Mars. Low earth orbit is the best we can achieve.

I think it was Astronaut Don Pettit who said we can't go to the moon as  we lost this technology and we need to start all over again.

I'd go to the moon in a nanosecond. The problem is, that we don't have the technology to do that anymore. We used to, but we destroyed that technology and it is a painful process to build it back again. 

 

 

 

Edited September 10 by MrAnderson

[Waspie_Dwarf]

50 minutes ago, MrAnderson said:

I'd go to the moon in a nanosecond. The problem is, that we don't have the technology to do that anymore. We used to, but we destroyed that technology and it is a painful process to build it back again. 

This is a quote used, out of context, by flat-Earthers and moon landing deniers to "prove" their case. Sadly you are using it in the same, out of context, way. I can not find the exact date when Pettit said this, but it was prior to 2017. Since then project Artemis has matured, a crew capable craft has been sent around the Moon, the components for the launch vehicle and spacecraft which will take a crew around the moon is being assembled at Kennedy Space Center and the components for the launch vehicle and spacecraft which will take a crew back to the surface of the is arriving at the Cape at this very moment.

To put it bluntly, your entire argument that we no longer have the capability to go to the moon is utter rubbish.

[MrAnderson]

4 minutes ago, Waspie_Dwarf said:

This is a quote used, out of context, by flat-Earthers and moon landing deniers to "prove" their case. Sadly you are using it in the same, out of context, way. I can not find the exact date when Pettit said this, but it was prior to 2017. Since then project Artemis has matured, a crew capable craft has been sent around the Moon, the components for the launch vehicle and spacecraft which will take a crew around the moon is being assembled at Kennedy Space Center and the components for the launch vehicle and spacecraft which will take a crew back to the surface of the is arriving at the Cape at this very moment.

To put it bluntly, your entire argument that we no longer have the capability to go to the moon is utter rubbish.

How is this rubbish when it wasn't me who said it. How it has been taken out of context. The words by the guy who is an astronaut are clear.

What moon landing denial? He didn't say we didn't go to the moon but that we can't go anymore because the task hasn't been repeated.

[Waspie_Dwarf]

1 hour ago, garen1 said:

And they are going to be Chinese. Really? No Chinese will be on the moon, cause they will be busy with belt and road spending money on real economy and cooperation, while someone still prints and dreams up the money to go to Mars? Oops too ambitious. Moon excuse me. 

You really know absolutely nothing about the Chinese space programme do you? That;s a rhetorical question because your nonsense post provides the answer.

[Waspie_Dwarf]

Just now, MrAnderson said:

How is this rubbish when it wasn't me who said it. How it has been taken out of context. The words by the guy who is an astronaut are clear.

What moon landing denial? He didn't say we didn't go to the moon but that we can't go anymore because the task hasn't been repeated.

I merely point out that this quote is used in a way that was not intended by Pettit. It is out of context in your argument because it is totally out of date. As I pointed out the quote is a minimum of seven years old. What was true prior to 2017 is no longer true now. Using that quote to back up your argument is as poor an argument as when the conspiracy theorists use it, The entire Artemis and Starship programmes appear to have gone totally unnoticed by you.

[Waspie_Dwarf]

2 hours ago, Cho Jinn said:

Don't be such a baby, Waspie.  Get out there.

I get frustrated if I've got to wait 20 minutes for a bus home. Waiting 2 years for my spaceflight back home would drive me nuts.

[MrAnderson]

13 minutes ago, Waspie_Dwarf said:

I merely point out that this quote is used in a way that was not intended by Pettit. It is out of context in your argument because it is totally out of date. As I pointed out the quote is a minimum of seven years old. What was true prior to 2017 is no longer true now. Using that quote to back up your argument is as poor an argument as when the conspiracy theorists use it, The entire Artemis and Starship programmes appear to have gone totally unnoticed by you.

I didn't use it to back up a conspiracy theory but to show it's rather a very difficult task to go to mars given that we haven't been to the moon for 52 years and the problems with moon missions as described by Don Pettit.

You see there is a difference between what the astronaut said and what others claim it has happened, in a few words that we haven't been to the moon.That's not what either me or Pettit said who I quoted. But he did say what it has been quoted and it hasn't been taken out of context.

I haven't followed the Artemis program but I think Artemis 1 was an unmanned mission. Am I wrong?

Edited September 10 by MrAnderson

[garen1]

16 minutes ago, Waspie_Dwarf said:

You really know absolutely nothing about the Chinese space programme do you? That;s a rhetorical question because your nonsense post provides the answer.

4 years from now my nonsense post will stand as true. And you still will be posting "in just another 4 years we are on Mars". Or the Chinese. You sound like NASA every once in while claiming some extraordinary breakthrough in space exploration and ramp up hype for a month until their budget approved then slip back and no beep for another 11 months. 

[Waspie_Dwarf]

1 minute ago, MrAnderson said:

I didn't use it to back up a conspiracy theory but to show it's rather a very difficult task to go to mars given that we haven't been to the moon for 52 years and the problems with moon missions as described by Don Pettit.

You see their is a difference between what the astronaut said and what others claim that's we haven't been to the moon.

Go back and read what I ACTUALLY said. Comprehension does not seem to be a strong point with you.

At no point have I accused you of conspiracy theories. I stated that Pettit;

s quote is used out of context by conspiracy theorists, I then said that you were also using his quote out of context. I have pointed out WHY it is out of context (it's out of date and therefore irrelevant).

4 minutes ago, MrAnderson said:

I haven't followed the Artemis program

That is blindingly obvious and probably the reason your entire argument is rubbish.

 

6 minutes ago, MrAnderson said:

but I think Artemis 1 was an unmanned mission. Am I wrong?

What part of this did you not understand?

25 minutes ago, Waspie_Dwarf said:

a crew capable craft has been sent around the Moon