Vice Presidential Debate

[+Link of Hyrule]

The VP debate begins in just under 1 hours time. It will be an interesting debate, I'm not sure it will have the same effect on the polls that the presidential debate did, but it'll be interesting. Personally I don't know a huge amount about either Vance or Walz, and they both come across to me as two very unlikeable individuals, so there's a lot of room for both of them to impress me tonight.  

 

It might not affect the betting odds, but just in case I'm posting the odds before the debate. Last time I posted the odds, Trump and Harris were a dead heat at $1.91 each. That hasn't changed. The odds did fluctuate a little bit in Harris' favour in the past week - yesterday it was $1.83 vs $2 and it was like that for about 5 straight days before dropping this morning, for example, but the numbers have been relatively stable, enough so that any shift will be noticeable, I think. The fluctuations did demonstrate who won the debate (the first debate the odds shifted hugely in Trump's favour, and in the second debate, the odds shifted slightly in Harris' favour, and that is roughly matching who most people agree won/lost the debate). The numbers have been stable enough to use as a baseline. Like I noted, I don't know if the VP debate has the same kind of traction with the voters as the presidential debates do, but if there is a correlation this is probably the best way to see it. 

 

 

Edited Wednesday at 12:21 AM by Link of Hyrule

[Edumakated]

Vance is going to crush Walz imho.   He is an excellent communicator and debator.   

[ExpandMyMind]

Imagine thinking Walz is unlikeable. He's one of the most genuine, likeable politicians (people, actually) I've ever seen in my 40 years on this earth.

Tim Walz is the most popular candidate on either ticket And J.D. Vance is the least. 

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/10/01/tim-walz-is-the-most-popular-candidate-on-either-ticket

[ExpandMyMind]

Walz schooling the Trump sycophant so far.

[Tatetopa]

JD Vance has a slight disadvantage.  He has to support the policies of a man who a couple of years ago he thought he was America's Hitler and totally unfit. 

[psyche101]

9 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

JD Vance has a slight disadvantage.  He has to support the policies of a man who a couple of years ago he thought he was America's Hitler and totally unfit. 

[Agent0range]

Vance is a straight up douche.  He spoke the truth about Trump, now he only cares about power.  Has he even answered a question?

[Black Red Devil]

2 hours ago, Link of Hyrule said:

I'm not sure it will have the same effect on the polls

 

Is 0.01% a good estimation?

[ExpandMyMind]

Ooft, Vance didn't address whether he would accept it if they lost. Completely deflected.

Four years later and they're planning the same **** of election denial. That's absolutely mental.

Vance is very articulate and I think he's actually a good politician, but holy **** he's been smashed in this debate. 

[ExpandMyMind]

9 minutes ago, Agent0range said:

Vance is a straight up douche.  He spoke the truth about Trump, now he only cares about power.  Has he even answered a question?

I get it completely though. There's a very good chance that if Trump wins then Vance will be President. Either from Trump's natural death or by invoking the 25th.

[+Shooter McGavin]

I have to admit that Vance comes off less of a douche when he's debating someone who isn't a douche. They have common ground more than they think except for some obvious issues like abortion and democracy. Overall, not a game changer for the election I think.

I wonder what Trump's opinion going to be about the debate, if he didn't fall asleep or walked away from boredom.

Edited Wednesday at 02:48 AM by Shooter McGavin

[F3SS]

What a contrast to what we're used to seeing. These guys are both professionals.

Edited Wednesday at 02:55 AM by F3SS

[Unusual Tournament]

12 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

Ooft, Vance didn't address whether he would accept it if they lost. Completely deflected.

Four years later and they're planning the same **** of election denial. That's absolutely mental.

Vance is very articulate and I think he's actually a good politician, but holy **** he's been smashed in this debate. 

Vance didn’t even admit Trump lost the 2020 election either. 

[Agent0range]

3 minutes ago, Unusual Tournament said:

Vance didn’t even admit Trump lost the 2020 election either. 

Of course he didn't.  Bend the knee.

[ExpandMyMind]

3 minutes ago, F3SS said:

What a contrast to what we're used to seeing. These guys are both professionals.

I actually kinda like Vance. I mean he's deplorable for not having any true morals or convictions, given what we know he thinks about Trump, but he's likeable and at times reasonable.

If only he wasn't there to enact as much of Project 25 as possible.

[+Shooter McGavin]

8 minutes ago, ExpandMyMind said:

I actually kinda like Vance. I mean he's deplorable for not having any true morals or convictions, given what we know he thinks about Trump, but he's likeable and at times reasonable.

If only he wasn't there to enact as much of Project 25 as possible.

I believe Vance doesn't believe the bullcrap he spews. But he has to swallow his pride in order to be embraced by Trump and his base.

Edited Wednesday at 03:09 AM by Shooter McGavin

[+Link of Hyrule]

50 minutes ago, Tatetopa said:

JD Vance has a slight disadvantage.  He has to support the policies of a man who a couple of years ago he thought he was America's Hitler and totally unfit. 

 No more than the disadvantage Kamala Harris had in 2020 when Kamala Harris trash talked Biden at her debate and rubbished all of his policies, and then turned around and became his VP (when questioned about why she was so critical of Biden if she was happy to be his VP, she said "it was a debate"). 

[psyche101]

9 minutes ago, Shooter McGavin said:

I believe Vance doesn't believe the bullcrap he spews. But he has to swallow his pride in order to be embraced by Trump and his base.

I dunno about that 

He had as much to do with the Springfield debacle as Trump did. 

[Agent0range]

4 minutes ago, Link of Hyrule said:

 No more than the disadvantage Kamala Harris had in 2020 when Kamala Harris trash talked Biden at her debate and rubbished all of his policies, and then turned around and became his VP (when questioned about why she was so critical of Biden if she was happy to be his VP, she said "it was a debate"). 

The amount of times he said the Kamala administration was laughable.  Trump should fear the amount of power he thinks he would have if Trump wins.

[+Link of Hyrule]

The debate appears to be over, I'll watch the debate tonight after my partner finishes work for the day. As I haven't seen it, I can't say who has done better or worse, but the bookmakers have decided that the VP debate had no effect on the overall markets. It's possible both sides were equally good (or equally bad). But if one of them did win, it had absolutely no bearing on the election odds, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris still both equal favourites at $1.91. 

It's been close for ages, so I don't know why the democrat supporters are acting like Harris has already won, but time will tell. You might be right, and then you get to say "I told you so" 😛 

[the13bats]

2 hours ago, Edumakated said:

Vance is going to crush Walz imho.   He is an excellent communicator and debator.   

Well, he is great at making up stuff and spreading racism and hate.

[the13bats]

1 hour ago, psyche101 said:

I do hope sofa boy keeps that dog from being eaten.

[ExpandMyMind]

10 minutes ago, Agent0range said:

The amount of times he said the Kamala administration was laughable.  Trump should fear the amount of power he thinks he would have if Trump wins.

You can tell that they still don't have an alternative gameplan to their original. They're saying the Harris administration like she had any sort of hand in crafting policy or making decisions. VP is a figurehead.

They basically just substituted Biden's name for hers.

'Harris has had 4 years to do that and has done nothing'.

How? Lol How can the VP do that, Vance? Sit down bro, we've all seen Veep here, we know you're talking ****e.

So weird.

[the13bats]

51 minutes ago, Shooter McGavin said:

I have to admit that Vance comes off less of a douche when he's debating someone who isn't a douche. They have common ground more than they think except for some obvious issues like abortion and democracy. Overall, not a game changer for the election I think.

I wonder what Trump's opinion going to be about the debate, if he didn't fall asleep or walked away from boredom.

Thats been what people do at convicted felon rallies

[Agent0range]

6 minutes ago, Link of Hyrule said:

 

It's been close for ages, so I don't know why the democrat supporters are acting like Harris has already won, but time will tell. You might be right, and then you get to say "I told you so" 😛 

As I've said before, I live in RURAL Pennsylvania.  I don't remember ever seeing a Biden sign four years ago.  My whole neighborhood has Kamala signs.  My wife and I were going to a brewery in Scranton last weekend for Octoberfest, and there was an entire four city blocks of houses with Kamala signs.  I've never seen anything like it for any election.